 
Economic and Mathematical Modeling
BUSINESS INFORM №1-2011
Tretiak V. P.
Methodological Approach to the Definition of Effectiveness of Activity of Objects of Social Sphere on the Basis of Application of Correlated Regressive Analysis (p. 68 - 74)
The model of determination of effectiveness of the activity of objects of social sphere on the basis of application of correlated regressive analysis has been devel-oped and tested, the appropriateness of its application when modeling the development and assessment of efficiency of enterprises of the sphere of consumer ser-vices of the social complex of the regions of Ukraine has been substantiated. Article is written in Russian
BUSINESS INFORM №2-2011, Vol.1
Dzenis V. A., Dzenis A. A.
The Use of Cluster Analysis in Assessing the Level of Financial and Economic Potential of Enterprise (p. 61 - 65)
The assessment of elements of financial and economic potential of enterprise has been done. The stages of the process of choice and formation of the strategy of financing the development of en-terprise have been formulated. The strategies of financing the development that are inaccessible for enterprise under analysis have been revealed. Article is written in Russian
Zhuravlyova I. V., Katasonova Y. I.
Strategic Analysis of Financial Development of Enterprise on the Basis of Fuzzy Multiple Modeling (p. 84 - 86)
The article considers the essence of strategic analysis as component of strategic management. The methodic support of strategic analysis of financial development of enterprise on the basis of theory of fuzzy set has been suggested. Its modeling on the basis of component Fuzzy Logic Toolbox of software product Matlab 6.1. has been done. Article is written in Russian
Sapelina N. V.
System Analysis and Engineering in Modeling of Anti-Crisis Development of Socio-Economic Objects (p. 92 - 94)
The possibilities of the use of instruments of system engineering for modeling life activity of socio-economic systems have been considered. The basic directions of improvement of quality of development and implementation of development strategy of economic objects based on recognition of integrity of such objects and creation of various groups of descriptions for them have been defined. Article is written in Russian
BUSINESS INFORM №2-2011, Vol.2
Sokoly I. I., Brovkova E. G.
Cluster Analysis of Functioning of Tourist Business of Ukraine and Odessa Region (p. 119 - 122)
The article considers the advantages of cluster analysis of functioning of tourist business. It has been proved that it is rational to make their grouping with the help of cluster analysis for generalization of the results of tourist activities of the regions of Ukraine. Article is written in Russian
BUSINESS INFORM №4-2011
Voronin A. V., Chernyshov S. I.
Indexes Divizia and Economic Dynamics (p. 88 - 91)
The analytical research problems of F. Divizia integral indexes was considered. Conc rete examples of the above-mentioned indexes was supplied and their connection of the traditional models of economic dynamics. Article is written in Russian
Borodach J. V.
Method of Minimization of Reserves Insurance Stock in Mechanical Engineering with Deterministic Model (p. 91 - 93)
The article deals with the effective operation of assembly plant, associated with the minimization of insurance stock assembly plant in a small batch type of production. Article is written in Russian
BUSINESS INFORM №5-2011, Vol.1
Burtnyak I. V., Malytska H. P.
Study of Volatility with the Help of Modification of Black-Scholes Model (p. 72 - 75)
In this article we use Hobson-Rogers model for values of indexes of the First Stock Trading System. It is the stochastic model of volatility which depends on the range of logarithmic price with exponentially weighted historic importance. Article is written in Ukrainian
Gamaliy V. F., Zahreba M. M.
Modeling of Dynamics of Financial State of Industrial Enterprise and Detection of Crisis Tendencies (p. 76 - 79)
The article suggests the model of assessment of dynamics of financial state of enterprise and practical example of its use with the purpose of forecasting crisis tendencies in financial situation at enterprise. Article is written in Ukrainian
Gvozdetskaya I. V., Ostapchuk O. V.
Analysis of Approaches to Modeling Industrial Enterprise Management Processes (p. 79 - 80)
The article gives the analysis of basic approaches to industrial enterprise management which allow to raise the effectiveness of managerial decisions that are taken in conditions of unstable market environment. Article is written in Ukrainian
Danich V. N., Yakimova L. P.
Modeling of Dynamics of Proliferation of Non-State Pension Administration in Heterogeneous Pension Social Medium (p. 81 - 83)
The article considers the problems of division of social medium into groups by properties and state of subjects with further development of models of dynamics of proliferation of non-state pension administration that take into account the heterogeneity of pension social medium by socio-psychological and role composition. Article is written in Ukrainian
Denisova O. A.
Study of Knowledge Base of Information Systems Architecture (p. 84 - 86)
The article considers modern approaches to organization of knowledge of architecture of information systems, defines basic elements of the base of architectural knowledge and semantic connections between them and describes the process of support of decision making on their base. Article is written in Ukrainian
Zaytsev S. I., Zaytsev I. S.
Fuzzy Multiple Model of Management of Metallurgical Company Inventory (p. 86 - 89)
The article presents models of material resources inventory management of metallurgical company. Article is written in Russian
Zaruba V. Y., Khodak M. I.
Comparative Analysis of Models of Electric Power Market (p. 89 - 92)
The article presents comparative logic-mathematical analysis of market indicators of electric power market which functions in accordance with the models of Single Buyer and bilateral contracts. Article is written in Russian
Katargin N. V., Bogomolov A. I., Kostyunin V. I.
Study of Society Development on the Basis of Expanded Haavelmo Model (p. 92 - 94)
The article considers the system which includes population which produces and consumes products, crime which withdraws part of products and power which withdraws part of products and suppresses crime. Article is written in Russian
Milov A. V., Milevskiy S. V.
Abstract Model of Decision-Maker Behavior (p. 94 - 96)
The article considers the processes of obtaining simplified models of decision-maker behavior as it seems to other economic agents. It is supposed that the process of abstraction will turn out to be useful as it enables an economic agent to define some of influences of a taken decision on the rest of the system in conditions when he doesn’t have the full model of this part of the system. Conversely, an agent may to a certain degree forecast the future actions of another agent and thereby improve his own behavior. Article is written in Russian
Onischenko A. M.
Modeling of Dynamic Equilibrium of Interaction of Manufacturers in Conditions of Limitation of Greenhouse Gas Emission (p. 96 - 99)
The article suggests the model of interaction of manufacturers with surplus and deficit quotas in conditions of limitations of greenhouse gas emissions set by Kyoto Protocol on the basis of the theory of optimum management. On the basis of sufficient conditions of optimality it considers the existence of the optimum trajectories of the model and picks out the main ones. Article is written in Ukrainian
Piskunova O. V.
The Use of System Characteristics in Modeling of the Dynamics of Basic Economic Indexes of Small Business Functioning (p. 99 - 102)
The article considers the system characteristics of enterprise functioning and system characteristics of managerial decisions as to their development and indexes of system characteristics and analyses the stability of an enterprise according to various types of expectations as to price level of the products produced in the context of the developed model of dynamics of small business in conditions of uncertainty of market environment. Article is written in Ukrainian
Rayevnyeva O. V., Sereda A. S.
Model of Definition of Crisis Forming Sphere of Life Activity of Export-Oriented Enterprise (p. 103 - 106)
The article is dedicated to development of algorithmic model of definition of functional component (sphere) of enterprise that is the source of formation of crisis tendencies. Econometric instruments of solution are as follows: the method of main components, taxonomic index of development level, method of analysis of time series. The use of the suggested method of diagnostics of crisis forming sphere of life activity of enterprise allows defining the problem sphere and changing general vector of enterprise development on the basis of development of managerial actions of reorganization. Article is written in Ukrainian
Roskladka A. A.
Theoretical Aspects of Imitation Modeling of Processes of Activity of Institution of Higher Education (p. 107 - 109)
The article presents critical analysis of methodology of imitation modeling. It considers the problems of preparation of the model of process for imitation and problems of modeling of random parameters of the process. On the basis of the research done it proves the advantage of the method of imitation modeling for optimization of management of institution of higher education. Article is written in Ukrainian
Svetunkov I. S.
Short-Term Forecasting of Socio-Economic Processes with the Use of Model with Correction (p. 109 - 112)
A model is in-process offered with the correction of prognosis. It can be used in practice of prognostication of socio-economic dynamics. On occasion it follows this model to give preference before other models. Important advantage of the offered model as compared to other modifications of model of Brauna is that it does not require a priori task of kind a tendency. Article is written in Russian
Tkach I. I., Gvozdetskaya I. V.
The Use of Mathematical Apparatus of Thermodynamics for Analysis and Assessment of Intellectual Capital of Enterprise (p. 113 - 115)
The article studies the use of the bases of the theory of thermodynamics for the analysis, measurement and assessment of intellectual capital of enterprise. Article is written in Ukrainian
Fathullina L. Z.
Dynamic Models of Resource Potentials of a Region (p. 115 - 118)
The article studies the quality of dynamic models of resource potentials with regard to innovation potential of a region. It describes the results with regard to the regions of Privolzhsk Federal Okrug of RF. The results achieved may be used in selection of effective directions of increase of innovation potential of a region. Article is written in Russian
Tsesliv O. V., Oleynik V. I.
Dynamic Econometric Model of Replacement of Equipment at Printing Plants (p. 118 - 120)
The work presents optimum policy of replacement of production equipment at printing plants. It builds the dynamic model of replacement of equipment at the plant which will make possible to reduce its costs and increase profits. Article is written in Ukrainian
Chernov V. P.
Modeling of Interregional Cooperation Potential (p. 120 - 122)
The article suggests the mathematical model directed at exposure of general tendencies of development of regions and their coalitions, assessment of irregularity of their dynamics and able to serve as the basis for formation of parameters of economic policy. The model is based on the conceptions of potential of a region and potential of interregional cooperation. Article is written in Russian
BUSINESS INFORM №6-2011
Borodach J. V.
Methods of Minimization of Reserve Stocks of Assembling with the Help of Stochastic Models (p. 88 - 90)
The article deals with the effective operation of assembly plant, associated with the minimization of insurance stock assembly plant in a small batch type of production. Article is written in Russian
Kovalevskiy D. V.
Price Adjustment Mechanisms Ensuring the Stability of Equilibrium in a Multidimensional Version of Scarf’s Model (p. 91 - 92)
A linearized-dimensional Scarf’s model with the Walrasian price adjustment mechanism (the classical tatonnement process) replaced by the proportional-integral-derivative (PID) price adjustment mechanism is studied. It is shown that Scarf’s economy, while being unstable under the Walrasian mechanism, converges to equilibrium under the PID mechanism. Article is written in English
Bizyanov Y. Y.
System Analysis in Assessment of Efficiency of Information Systems (p. 92 - 94)
The article considers the problem of the use of system analysis for assessment of economic efficiency of information systems, analyses problems connected with its use. Article is written in Russian
Guzhva V. M.
Agent-Oriented Modeling of Economic Processes and Systems (p. 95 - 99)
The article considers the conceptual bases of agent-oriented modeling (AOM) of socio-economic processes and systems and gives examples of the use of AOM for modeling of chains of supply at industrial enterprises and activities in stock market. Article is written in Ukrainian
Dymchenko V. V.
Model of Formation of Investment Priorities in Housing and Communal Services of Cities (p. 99 - 103)
The article suggests the model of assessment of the structure and volumes of investments in housing and communal services and also marks out the external and internal characteristics of reliability of investing with the help of which the problem of diagnostics of investment projects may be solved. Article is written in Russian
Dyubanov O. S., Ramazanov S. K.
Models of Behavior of Subjects of the Market of Electronic Trade in Modern Conditions (p. 104 - 105)
The article studies the processes of interaction of participants of the market of electronic trade in Ukraine in modern conditions, builds the models of behavior of the subjects of the market and develops recommendations as to selection of strategy of behavior in the market. Article is written in Ukrainian
Prokopovich S. V., Yatsenko R. M.
Increase in Prognostic and Analytical Properties of the Systems of Structural Equations on the Basis of Parametric Adaptation (p. 105 - 109)
The article presents the parametric adaptation of structural econometric models on the basis of the method of stochastic approximation which is realized in MS Excel environment that allows to increase prognostic and analytical properties of the model. Article is written in Ukrainian
Sarioglo V. G., Ogai M. Y.
Analysis of Poverty and Social Consequences with the Use of Methods of Micromodelling (p. 109 - 111)
The article presents the approaches to modeling of indexes of poverty on the basis of the use of POVSTAT model, gives the detailed characteristic of information support of modeling and assesses the effects of influence of financial and econom-ics crisis on the indexes of socio-economic development of Ukraine. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №7-2011, Vol.1
Rumyantsev N. V., Medvedeva M. I.
Study of the Service System with Unreliable Apparatus and Resetting at the Beginning of the Period of Employment (p. 10 - 13)
The question of determination of stationary probabilities of the states of the queuing system with an unreliable device, vacation and prophylaxis describing functioning of both basic and auxiliary material stream of the logistic system is considered in the article. Article is written in Russian
Zenkova Z., Kolychev N.
Censored data analysis with using information about symmetry of distribution (p. 13 - 15)
The data used at the analysis of economic indicators, engineering, biological and medical researches, can have casual character. Therefore, there is a necessity for estimation of distribution functions of random variables on which basis it is possible to construct various statistical procedures, to find values of many numerical characteristics, for example, an average or a dispersion. Article is written in English
Zdanovskii J. V., Goncharova V. A.
Forecasting of US Dollar Rate on the Basis of the Theory of Fuzzy Logic as the Basic Stage of Currency Risk Management (p. 16 - 20)
The article analyses the factors that have an influence on the formation of the U. S. dollar rate in Ukraine; as the main phase of the currency risk management – risk assessment – is examined the model of exchange rate forecasting based on the theory of fuzzy logic. Article is written in Russian
Kasianova N. V.
Model of Assessment of the Point of Bifurcation in Enterprise Development (p. 20 - 23)
The article suggests a model of bifurcation point estimation of the industrial enterprise by establishing a system of differentioal equations. That models can not only determine the moment of inbalance, but also indetify factors that influence on the enterprise risk managment most of all. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №7-2011, Vol.2
Rayevnyeva O. V., Gorokhova O. I.
Formation of Indicative Meanings of Indicators of Identification of the Class of Crisis of Industrial Enterprises (p. 21 - 23)
The article is devoted to developing the algorithm for determining indicative values ??for indicators for diagnose the crisis's class of industrial enterprises on the example of the Kharkov region. Article is written in Ukrainian
Ihnashkina T. B., Shura N. A.
Formation of Sectorial Clusters of Industrial Enterprises of Dnepropetrovsk Region with the Purpose of Analysis of Reproduction Processes (p. 23 - 30)
Intra-cluster enterprises of Dnipropetrovsk region are formed with using the application of methods and techniques of cluster analysis. Grouping of enterprises conducted to further assess the status and effectiveness of reproduction of fixed assets typical of each industry cluster companies. Article is written in Ukrainian
Sytnik I. V.
Factors of Integration Capacity and Prospects of Development of the Economy of Ukraine (p. 30 - 34)
In this article the factors of integration abilities of Ukrainian economy on the basis of correlation-regressive analysis have been defined and the prospective of Ukrainian economy development have been grounded. Article is written in Ukrainian
Murzabulatova E. V.
Cluster Analysis of State Corporate Rights of Ukraine (p. 34 - 37)
The article gives a cluster analysis of state corporate rights in Ukraine in two ways corporatization (the size of the corporate rights of the state and authorized capital of companies), which further gives an opportunity to redress imbalances in the distribution of state corporate rights and improve the effectiveness of the decisions regarding the management of state corporate rights. Article is written in Russian
BUSINESS INFORM №8-2011
Dilenko V. О.
Features of optimal control in the in the same model of economic growth with technological progress (p. 107 - 113)
The mathematical model of the optimal economic growth in which the scientific and technical progress influence has been presented in the form of decrease of the capital intensity of the economy in the course of its development has been constructed. The analysis of the influence of the technological progress intensity on the properties of the optimal dynamics of the considered economic system has been carried out. Article is written in Russian
Zhelezniakova E. Y., Veitsev S. V.
Usage of Economic-Mathematical Methods at Predicting the Level of Financial Security Company (p. 113 - 116)
In the article are blessed to learn about the synergy of methods of fundamental and applied areas of research to create methods to predict the level of financial security company. Article is written in Russian
Rayevnyeva O. V., Sereda A. S.
Model of Study of Structural Regularities of Time Series of Enterprise «Finprofil» (p. 117 - 122)
The study of structural regularities of time series of enterprise, i. e. the assessment and analysis of the trajectory of development in perspective, is one of the elements of diagnostics of internal condition of enterprise in modern conditions of uncertainty and more frequent emergence of the modes of bifurcation. The complexity of the structure of time series which characterizes the level of development of enterprise cannot always be analyzed by classical methods. That’s why there is the necessity of the use of modern methods which allow to track, fix and analyze insignificant fluctuations of time series in short-term period and long-term tendencies as well (e. g. SSA method). Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №9-2011
Bizyanov Y. Y.
The economic information utility function: features of design and use (p. 23 - 26)
This paper proposes an approach to building multi-criteria utility function of economic information. The choice of the criteria is motivated, proposed a one-dimensional utility function for each of the criteria, and is dealt a multidimensional utility function of information. Article is written in Russian
Chagovets L. O.
Space-dynamic differentiation model of social-economic regional development (p. 26 - 29)
This article is devoted to the questions of unevenness and skewness evaluation of regional socio-economic development. Within the framework of this research the space-dynamic differentiation model of social-economic development of regions was constucted on the example of the Russian Federation. Article is written in Ukrainian
Stepurina S. O., Pіmonova G. V.
Model for determining fuzzy inference company's creditworthiness (p. 30 - 33)
Article is devoted to the development model for determining the creditworthiness of a legal person, based on the fuzzy inference algorithm using Mamdani, conducted testing on these enterprises in Ukraine. Article is written in Russian
BUSINESS INFORM №10-2011
Svetunkov S. G.
Modeling of Regional Development and Unevenness of Socio-Economic Development of Regions (p. 88 - 94)
The article suggests the approach to building of the system of models of regional economic dynamics and presents a structural scheme of the suggested system of models. Article is written in Russian
Dmitrusenko K. O.
Development of a conceptual model study of interaction of Ukrainian financial market components (p. 95 - 99)
The article stressed the need for developments in modeling the dynamics and interaction of Ukrainian financial market components and the study of foreign influence on Ukrainian financial market. Article is written in Ukrainian
Titarenko D. V.
Model of conduct of users of the same type products (p. 99 - 100)
The article deals with the information about the actual task of design of consumption of the same type products by the different segments of market. This task is considered with modern eonomical–mathematical methods. An agent-based simulation model of conduct of users of the same type products is offered. Article is written in Russian
Chernova N. L.
Peculiarities of the Use of Hidden Markov Models for Modeling of Cycle of Development of Economic System (p. 101 - 103)
The article considers the basic elements of hidden markov model, substantiates the choice of hidden markov model as an instrument of forecasting of the cycle of development of the system and suggests the algorithm of analysis and forecasting of the cycle of development of the system. Article is written in Russian
BUSINESS INFORM №11-2011
Zelenkov A. V., Markova S. V.
Information Technology of Business Modeling (p. 39 - 41)
The article the comparative analysis of software functional for a business modeling is done. Orgmaster, Business Studio, Fox Manager, BPWin, ELMA, business engineershep and Modeler of Business Processes are described. The result of this work is the choice of a software which is the easiest to use for optimization of business processes on the modern Ukrainian enterprises. In authors' opinion, the best choice for organizational modeling will be BusinessStudio or Fox Manager in present. Article is written in Russian
Ilchuk P. H., Kots O. O., Bondarenko L. P.
Algorithm of the scheduling of scientific and technical preparation of machine-building production in the conditions of vagueness (p. 42 - 44)
In the article a scheduling of scientific and technical preparation of machine-building production algorithm in the conditions of vagueness is developed and is resulted its detailed description. Grounded that a reflection exceptionally of function boxes in the offered algorithm will provide universality of its use in activity of machine-building enterprises. Article is written in Ukrainian
Bavin V. V.
Analysis of economic and mathematical models of corruption and ways of their further development (p. 44 - 47)
The analysis and systematization of the main domestic and foreign economic and mathematical models of corruption and justify their proposals for the use and development in the sphere of tax relations in Ukraine. Article is written in Russian
BUSINESS INFORM №12-2011
Moskovkin V. M., Subbotina A. A., Idalgo Ricardo
Matrix analysis of bilateral trade in the countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, using a database of Trade Map (p. 89 - 94)
Article formalized previously developed matrix analysis of bilateral trade in any group of countries, which was tested on the example of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Matrix analysis done on the basis of the tool «Bilateral Trade» Trade Map database of the International Trade Centre to the level of 2001 and 2009, which revealed trends in mutual trade of this group of countries. The analysis showed that the Central Asian countries have very low potential for mutual trade against the background of the potential of Russia, China and Kazakhstan. At the core of a three-dimensional two-way bilateral trade accounted for about 83% of foreign trade in the countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Article is written in Russian
Moskovkin V. M., Bader Eddin Alkhadid, Moskovkina M. V.
Matrix Analysis of bilateral trade in the Arab MEDA countries using the database Trade Map (p. 94 - 100)
Matrix analysis of bilateral trade in an arbitrary country system by using instrument «Bilateral Trade» Database Trade Map is formalized in this article and eight Arab MEDA countries were tested. It is shown that the leading three and four cores of Maghreb foreign trade were replaced by similar Mashrek cores, which suggests that the most active cores of mutual trade in the Arab MEDA countries during the reporting period of seven years has shifted in eastward. Article is written in Russian
Zelenkov A. V., Bratova E. Y.
The Use of Organisational and Imitation Modelling for Catering Facilities Work Organisation (p. 100 - 104)
The article considers the problems of the use of imitational and organizational modeling for improvement of the work of catering facilities. Modelling may be used in the projects of re-engineering of activity of enterprises when it is necessary to predict the results beforehand and allows to build effective business without experimenting with the company and employees. It considers as an example the modeling with the help of the program «Business Studio» which is one of the most widely spread in CIS among programs of this type. Article is written in Russian
BUSINESS INFORM №2-2012
Dubnitskiy V. Y., Piskunov R. A., Taraskina N. V.
Geometrical Analysis of Country Risks (p. 31 - 34)
Geometrical interpretation of basic indicators of origin of currency crises is offered: size of external debt in relation to GDP and degree of coverage by gold-value backlogs of external debt. There is the described procedure of reflection of these indicators pithily, located on a single circle. A numeral example which illustrates the offered method is resulted. Article is written in Russian
Shkromida N. Y.
Application of spline functions is in prognostication of parameters of economic potential of industrial enterprises (p. 35 - 37)
In the article theoretical approaches and practical recommendations of increase of selection of prehistory of statistical data are examined by means of spline functions with the aim of upgrading of design of economic processes and improvement of exactness of their prognostication. Article is written in Ukrainian
Merkulova T. V.
Modelling of Credit Market and Retirement Insurance Market Interaction (p. 37 - 41)
The paper presents the results of modeling the dynamics of the relationship between retirement savings and the rate of Ukrainian banks for loans, using the vector autoregressive models. Conclusions about the predictive capabilities of these models and the nature of the relationship are formulated. Article is written in Russian
BUSINESS INFORM №3-2012
Vasylchenko K. G., Yakub Y. S.
An agent model of the informal employement dynamics (p. 26 - 29)
A concept of multiagent model, allowing examining the dependence of the informal employment dynamics on mentality of the work force is proposed. Some simulations of the employment dynamics development in agent communities with different composition and different outward conditions are performed. Possibilities of the future model improvements are discussed. Article is written in Ukrainian
Vitlinskyi V. V., Kolyada Y. V., Kharlamov A. O.
Nonlinear dynamics of the functioning of a commercial bank based on a mathematical model of continuous (p. 29 - 34)
In this paper, a point model (a system of first-order nonlinear ordinary differential equations) is proposed. Based on the model we conducted analytical, qualitative and quantitative analysis of the bank. The results of computer simulation are compared with the statistical data of the bank «Brokbusinessbank». Article is written in Ukrainian
Klokov V. I.
Effect of mediators on the stability of the market (p. 34 - 38)
In this paper take place the models with a delay of market dynamics. Using these models estimated the influence of intermediate trade agents (‘middlemen’) on the stability of prices. Article is written in Russian
Sokolovska Z. M., Yatsenko N. V.
Use of fuzzy expert systems in practice of modern economic researches (p. 38 - 42)
The article reviews modern shells and instruments of creating expert systems. It considers the applied aspects of the use of fuzzy expert system FuzziClips in economic studies while solving unstructured and weakly structured tasks. Article is written in Ukrainian
Bizyanov Y. Y.
Fuzzy model of the development of management information systems (p. 42 - 45)
The article considered of constructing a fuzzy model to evaluate the development of management information systems, analyzes the features of its application. Article is written in Russian
Brodskiy Y. B., Timonin Y. A., Timonin A. Y.
An account of differential losses is in nonlinear model economic system (p. 45 - 47)
In the article the method of account of differential losses is formulated in the conceptual model of the economic system. By this method the nonlinear model of growth of the economic system is formed and the method of economic-physical analogies is grounded. Article is written in Russian
Burtnyak I. V., Malytska H. P.
The model of path-depended volatility for the index PFTS (p. 48 - 50)
In this paper, the proposed generalized model Hobson-Rogers and introduced a new model of dependence of volatility to past asset prices. Our idea is to consider flexibleschemes weighing corresponding finite horizont of time in the past. The model has the unique advantage over others when determining prices. Article is written in Ukrainian
Zaitseva N. M., Golubnichaya A. L.
The concept of transport management of metallurgical enterprise on the basis of genetic algorithm optimization (p. 51 - 53)
The article is devoted to developing the concept of traffic management of metallurgical enterprises, based on genetic algorithm optimization that reduces the cost of shipping. The scheme and the description of the concept are presented, as well as an application example. Article is written in Russian
Karpets O. S., Chuiko I. M., Milevskiy S. V.,
Financial stability estimation models: cognitive approach (p. 54 - 58)
In the article presented a complex of enterprise financial stability estimation models, based on cognitive modeling. Fused cognitive enterprise financial stability estimation model was built. It provides a basis for possible situation scenarios for decision making. Article is written in Ukrainian
Piskun O. V.
Using methods of nonlinear analysis to monitor the currency markets (p. 58 - 61)
In article the problem of monitoring of the currency market is considered. For research of a condition of the market in a mode of real time it is offered to use the recurrent quantitative analysis. Article is written in Ukrainian
Salun M. N.
Matrix model of concept vehicle for modernization of enterprise resource potential (p. 62 - 64)
The matrices of base and derivative concepts of resource potential enterprises modernization are offered in the article. It’s formed on the principles of dichotomy. The closeness measures of the matrices elements are tested by the method of automatic classification. Article is written in Russian
Gambarov L. A., Chernyshova N. P.
Model determining the premium component of wages based on diagnosis of a balanced scorecard (p. 64 - 66)
The paper proposes a formalization of the process of constructing a three-level balanced scorecard, which allows reasonable approach to the problem of effective organization and management of the interaction of all components of the system. Article is written in Russian
Tukalo V. A., Kolyada Y. V.
The assessment of coefficients change influence in generalized Volterra-Lotka model on the evolution of socio-economic system (p. 67 - 71)
Приводятся результаты исследования влияния коэффициентов обобщенной модели Вольтерра – Лотки на сценарии развития событий социально-экономической системы. Симуляции проводятся в координатах «народ – СМИ – правительство». Результаты представлены в виде интегральных кривых и фазовых портретов. Article is written in Ukrainian
Khemelyov O. H.
The principles of synthesis of associative neyromashin identification of complex economic objects (p. 71 - 75)
It is shown that the set of neural networks is more efficient in terms of accuracy than a single neural network. The different structures of neural associative machines marked with their application and ways to further improve the architectures of neural networks identification of complex economic systems. Article is written in Russian
Khrushch L. Z., Korzhevska O. P.
Extension of balance ecological and economic model of Leontief-Ford (p. 75 - 78)
In the article is offered extension of balance ecological and economic model of Leontief – Ford, which takes into account pollution from products consumption. Based on the proposed model is built ecologic-economical production function. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №4-2012
Kobzeva A. I., Matorin S. I.
On Development of Universal Technology of Business Processes Modeling (p. 19 - 21)
The article considers the basic means of visual graphic-analytical modeling and reveals their merits and demerits. Article is written in Russian
Malуarets L. M., Koibichuk V. V.
Regressive Models without Absolute Term (p. 21 - 25)
The mathematical features of regression models without a constant term are reviewed and methods for their solutions are analyzed. Recommendations for the development of models without a constant term are summarized. Article is written in Ukrainian
Rumyantsev N. V.
Flexible Logistic Systems with Reconfiguration at the Beginning of the Period of Employment and Loss of Demands (p. 25 - 27)
In work the model of system of mass service with loss of requirements during readjustment of the device is considered, unlimited turn allowing estimating key parameters of flexible logistical system. Article is written in Russian
Svetunkov I. S., Bogdanov A. A.
Complex Valued Correlation Analysis of Regional Economy (p. 28 - 30)
By way of example of the North-West regions of Russia the article studies the complex valued index of the level of socio-economic development of the region that allows of adequately diagnosing the situation and revealing the existing tendencies. Cause-and-effect relations between the indexes, reflecting the level of socio-economic development, and factors, predetermining the regional development, were revealed. Article is written in Russian
Chernyak O. I., Khohlov V. V.
Model of Multidimensional Time Series with an Arbitrary Order of Autoregression (p. 31 - 34)
In the article the model of multidimensional time series with an arbitrary order of autoregression is proposed. It is found the estimates of model parameters and the procedure of determining the order autoregressive based on the criteria of accuracy of the forecast. The forecast of the six macroeconomic indicators of Ukrainian economy was obtained. Article is written in Ukrainian
Grygoruk P. M., Tkachenko I. S.
Methods of Integral Index Construction (p. 34 - 38)
Approaches for the determination of an integral index are considered in the article. Tasks for the solution of which it's expedient to utilize such an index are described. The description of index construction methods is resulted on condition of the use of metrical scale for measuring basic data. Article is written in Ukrainian
Kononova K. Y.
Modeling of Macrogenerations Dinamics (p. 38 - 40)
The model of identifying and estimation of the macrogenerations parameters has been proposed. A preliminary analysis has been performed based on the statistics of U. S. development; the series of calculations with different parameters of macrogenerations has confirmed the theoretical assumptions about the dynamics of the macrogenerations. Article is written in Russian
Serhiienko O. A., Tatar M. S.
Spatial Dynamic Assessment and Analysis of Indexes of Enterprise Competitiveness (p. 41 - 46)
The tool of complex spatial and dynamic assessment and analysis of enterprises' competitiveness and industry trends in their development, using modern tools of economic-mathematical modeling of static and dynamic processes on the basis of econometric methods of modeling and multivar-iate statistical analysis and decisions making is developed. Article is written in Ukrainian
Chernaya O. Y., Shypitsyna G. A.
The Use of Econometric Models in the Process of Enterprise Capital Management (p. 46 - 49)
The use of econometric models and methods of nonlinear programming, in particular, contributes to the making of analysis of enterprise capital management. The tasks of nonlinear methods and models determine the peculiarities of the tasks of unconditional and conditional optimization and methods used for their solution. Article is written in Ukrainian
Goridko N. P.
The Models for Short-Run Phillips Curve for USA (p. 49 - 52)
The paper is devoted to analysis and evaluation of a short-run relation between the rate of inflation and the level of unemployment in USA. There were invented different regression models in order to estimate that relation. There were made relevant conclusions about the extrapolation of obtained trends. Article is written in Russian
Litvinova V. O.
Graphic Methods of Research in the Analysis of Level of Competitiveness of Products (p. 53 - 56)
In article the analysis of existing graphic methods of an estimation of competitiveness of production which are actively used at definition of level of competitiveness is carried out. To these methods carry model of consumer satisfaction of Kano, a competitiveness polygon, a method of «radar» and a method of «profiles». On each method their certain weak and strengths also are given conclusions concerning expediency of their use at definition of level of competitiveness of production. Article is written in Ukrainian
Trunova T. N.
Models of Analysis of Enterprise Strategic Financial Position (p. 56 - 59)
The models of strategic financial position analysis are offered in article. The models contribute to raise information-analytical base quality of enterprise financial strategy decision-making based on the multidimensional statistical analysis methods, econometric modeling, the expert analysis. Article is written in Russian
Chankina I. V.
Modeling of Industrial Enterprise Development Attractor by Way of Example of Open Joint Stock Company «Connector» (p. 59 - 63)
The article suggests the number of statements for modeling of enterprise development based on the scenario approach and allows of making managerial decisions in conditions of unsteady conditions of environment. The development of scenarios of development of open joint stock company «Connector» is the practical realization of the given statements. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №5-2012
Bozhko V. P., Karatseva I. Y., Magomedova M. M.
Magomedova M. M. Modelling of Vvolumes of Realisation of a Communication Facilit (p. 47 - 51)
The technique of use of the factorial analysis for forecasting of volumes of realisation of mobile phones has been considered. The market of a communication facility has been analysed and its structure is revealed. Tendencies which are inherent in the given branch have been defined. The sequence of carrying out of the offered analysis for three major factors has been resulted: technical characteristics, the price and quality of management of assortment of phones of a mobile communication. Article is written in Ukrainian
Rumyantsev N. V.
Flexible Logistic Systems with Vacation at the End of Bysie Period of Employment and Loss of Requirements (p. 51 - 54)
In work the model of system of mass service with loss of requirements during readjustment of the device is considered, unlimited turn allowing estimating key parameters of flexible logistical system. Article is written in Russian
Komazov P. V.
Using Methods of Fuzzy Sets in the Process of Authentication of Economic Object (p. 55 - 58)
The decision of task of application of methods of theory of fuzzy sets is presented in the process of authentication of economic object. Application over of theory of fuzzy sets is brought for diagnostics of the financial state of enterprise and SWOT-analysis, which the construction of integral index of business force is possible on the basis of. Article is written in Ukrainian
Malyutin A. K.
Model of the Crisis State of Economy (Example of Ukraine) (p. 58 - 61)
The model of the optimum distributing of investments in different industries of national economy is examined. Optimum combination of investments from point of maximization of GDP at limitations, taking into account the combined volume of investments, volume of foreign investments and indexes of economic threat is got. Article is written in Russian
Medvedeva M. I.
Model of Estimation of Strategy of Repair Works of Industrial Equipment (p. 62 - 65)
The question of determination of stationary probabilities of the states of the queuing system with an unreliable device, vacation and prophylaxis describing functioning of both basic and auxiliary material stream of the logistic system is considered in the article. Article is written in Russian
Zhmaylo M. А., Nakonechnyi Y. V.
Statistical Modeling Investment Processes in Ukraine (p. 65 - 68)
The authors analyzed conditions for the development of investment activity in Ukraine and modeled the basic scenario of investment in fixed capital in the short term. Also the authors suggested ways to increasing the investment attractiveness of the economy of Ukraine. Article is written in Russian
BUSINESS INFORM №6-2012
Dubnitskiy V. Y., Khodyrev A.
Determination of Numerical Characteristic of Rows of Salary Distribution and Characteristic of Its Irregularity in Ukrainian Regions (p. 74 - 78)
On the base of statistic data a mean value, standard deviation, coefficient of heterogeneity, Gini index, Robin Hood index are determined for grouped rows of salary in the Ukrainian regions. Article is written in Russian
Stryzhychenko K. A., Dmitrusenko K. O.
Modelling of the Tendencies of the World Stock Market with the Help of Wavelet Analysis Methods (p. 78 - 81)
The article models the tendencies of the world stock market with the use of wavelet analysis methods and forecasts the dynamics of the English and Japanese stock markets indicators. It proves that the methods of wavelet resolution of signal are effective instruments of modeling and forecasting of the world stock market development tendencies. Article is written in Russian
Toneva K. V.
Modeling the Competitiveness of the Enterprise (p. 81 - 83)
The paper proposes a modeling enterprise competitiveness using multivariate analysis, namely the hierarchical method and k-means, according to business coke industry. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №7-2012
Zhovtanetskiy M. I., Tverdokhlib M. I.
Statistical Modeling of Influence of the Technological Structure of the Economy on the Development of Ukraine (p. 12 - 17)
The article substantiates approach to evaluating the impact of technological structure of the economy development of country. Were traced dynamic changes of elasticity impact on gross domestic product of Ukraine of development of the industries according to their association with a technological way. Article is written in Russian
Kolomytseva A. O., Iakovenko V. S.
Modelling of Processes of Optimum Management by Logistic Distributive Systems (p. 18 - 21)
Article is devoted to development and justification of possibility of joint application of system and dynamic and process ideologies of the modelling which synthesis will allow to raise considerably qualitative and quantitative characteristics of optimum control of distributive logistic systems. Article is written in Ukrainian
Milov A. V., Chuiko I. M.
Partitioning Algorithm of Statistical Analisys for Distributed DSS (p. 22 - 24)
The method of designing of the distributed systems of support of decision-making with partitioning algorithm of functional modules set for statistical analysis is considered. Article is written in Russian
BUSINESS INFORM №8-2012
Blahun I. S., Keyvan Y. I.
Forecasting the Demand for Travel Services (p. 7 - 11)
The forecasting models of demand on tourist services taking into account a seasonal wave and model of dynamics of development of tourist enterprise, realization of which is able to promote efficiency of functioning of separate tourist enterprises and tourist market on the whole, are developed. Article is written in Ukrainian
Pedchenko N. S.
The harmonization process of capacity building of enterprises and organizations of consumer cooperatives in the method of taxonomy (p. 11 - 17)
The paper demonstrated the possibility of harmonization of the management capacity of enterprises and organizations of consumer cooperatives on the basis of taxonomic analysis, based on integrated parameter defined as aggregate generalization of many attributes. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №9-2012
Sitak I. L., Korobkov D. V., Mishchenko V. A.
Current methods for determining the stability of the enterprise (p. 92 - 98)
This article reviews current methods for evaluating the stability of the company, which can be used for strategic management of its development. Article is written in Ukrainian
Ivashchenko P. A., Sysoeva S. I.
Quasi Adaptive Forecasting of Tourism Activity (p. 98 - 101)
The method quasi adaptive short-term forecasting, which is used to predict the number of foreign tourists visiting the Western region of Ukraine. Article is written in Ukrainian
Pokotilova Y. I., Pokotilov I. F.
The Use of Bayesian Networks of Trust in the Formation of the Company Product Range (p. 101 - 105)
In this paper we consider the use of Bayesian networks of trust for the formation of a competitive range of sustainable food through the software Hugin. We present the necessary theoretical information on the methodology of the solution. Shows the main aspects of the implementation of the program. Article is written in Ukrainian
Marchuk V. D.
Simulation of material flow production systems based on random production losses (p. 105 - 109)
The model of material stream of the production system is developed taking into account the stochastic production losses that represent by itself the distributed stochastic process with the correlation function of type of "white noise" and function that has seasonal vibrations. Article is written in Ukrainian
Ponomarenko O. E.
Using Fuzzy Sets in Evaluating the Level of Industry Business Entities Financial Security (p. 109 - 113)
In the article the feasibility of using fuzzy sets in determining the level of industry business entities financial security on the example of Kharkiv region industrial enterprises and the methodology of the tactical actions development to achieve financial security, which are based on the use of the fuzzy logic postulates are proposed. Article is written in Ukrainian
Sknar I. I.
The Construction of Prediction Models Based on the Package Matlab Neural Networks (p. 113 - 117)
The research focused on the potentialities of the package Matlab Neural Networks to build predictive models of economic and social processes. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №10-2012
Klebanova T. S., Guryanova L. S., Trunova T. N., Smirnova A. Y.
The Scenary Modeling in Regional Development Management (p. 60 - 65)
The scenary models of regions social and economic development management are offered in the article. They allow to estimate consequences of various financial regional policy versions realization directed on crisis depth reduction in regional systems, cyclic fluctuations smoothing, territories social and economic development levels alignment. Article is written in Russian
Goridko N. P.
Government Expenditure and Economic Growth: Regression Analysis (p. 65 - 69)
The paper deals with mutual influence for a share of government expenditures in GDP and a real GDP value as an indicator of economic growth. The invented regression models for the relationship of those indicators for the economies of China and Ukraine perform the grade of effectiveness for government funds using. Article is written in Russian
BUSINESS INFORM №11-2012
Vereshchagina A. V., Korobkova G. O.
Using the Theory of the «Golden Ratio» to Analyze and Forecast the Innovative Activities of Industrial Enterprises (p. 38 - 42)
The methodical approach evaluation of innovative activity of industrial enterprises, which is based on the theory of the «golden section», and Fibonacci numbers. This allows the choice of methods to further encourage increasing innovation. Article is written in Ukrainian
Guryanova L. S.
The Scenary Forecasting of Regions Social and Economic Development Dynamics (p. 43 - 47)
The scenarios of regions social and economic development by various tax and budgetary policy versions realization are considered in the article. Article is written in Russian
BUSINESS INFORM №12-2012
Kobushko I. M.
Parametric Modeling of the Investment Market Equilibrium of Ukraine (p. 63 - 72)
In the paper it was proposed a scientific and methodical approach to the modeling of the equilibrium position in the investment market, which enables to identify the quantitative characteristics of the degree for using of each of the ways to influence government agencies on key parameters of the market functioning and determine their direction. Article is written in Ukrainian
Bachkir I. G.
Diagnosis of Bankruptcy in Fuzzy Raw Data (p. 73 - 76)
The article describes the method of calculation bankruptcy risk level using fuzzy values of controlled parameters financial condition. The conclusion is based on the calculation of the regression polynomial values, coefficients of which founded by the method of pair comparisons. Article is written in Russian
Korbutyak A. G.
Using Regression Models of Financing Innovative Enterprise Development (p. 77 - 80)
There are features of the financial providing of innovative investment activity are considered in this article in the conditions of deepening of world financial and economic crisis. Directions and measures of perfections of financial mechanism taking into account levels of its realization are defined. The necessity of creation the priority development areas in Chernivtsi region is motivated in the paper. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №1-2013
Guryanova L. S., Prokopovich S. V.
The Impact Assessment Models of the Inter-regional Cooperation on the Processes of Convergence of the Territories (p. 62 - 67)
The article analyzes the uneven economic space of Ukraine on the basis of the concept of convergence. The analysis confirms the strengthening of regional development imbalances, which can lead to slower economic growth and demonstrates the need for the formation mechanisms of smoothing the impact of external shocks on economic dynamics. Article is written in Russian
Zozulya A. V.
Methods for Evaluating Proposals Bidding in Public Procurement to Internal Forces (p. 68 - 71)
For the evaluation of tenders in public procurement in the paper it was proposed to use the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). On the basis of this method was built hierarchical scheme comparisons and also propose a technique that, to some extent generalizes the AHP due to the special status of the indicator value. Methodology for evaluating proposals bidding in public procurement for the military units of internal troops through the use of the analytic hierarchy process can be used in the practice of bidding committees. Article is written in Ukrainian
Petryk V. L.
Semantic Space for the Verification of Economic Mathematical Models (p. 71 - 75)
The use of semantic space to control the dimension of economic and physical variables in the verification of economic mathematical models is proposed. The basis of the semantic space is the vector representation of dimension values. For construction of semantic space the classification of units of measurement and recording of business objects and goods in Ukraine was considered. Article is written in Ukrainian
Ivanyuk U. V.
Model of Development Planning of Tourist Enterprise (p. 75 - 81)
The paper proposes a model of planning and development of tourist business. The model allows: 1) to justify the process of distribution of company profits, and 2) to select the optimal mode of its operation and the best operating conditions, and 3) make the selection of parameters for which the tour company created favorable conditions for the development and 4) to determine the optimal tax rate in favor of the company. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №2-2013
Zakharchenko P. V., Zhvanenko S. A.
Modelling Demand and Expanded Production of Innovation Resort-Recreational Products (p. 64 - 68)
The article is about finding a solution for an urgent problem of construction and study of models of management of innovation demand and production of innovation resort-recreational products. It offers and theoretically substantiates the concept of innovation development of the national resort-tourist economy, which is used for construction of a model of demand and expanded production of innovation resort products and for drawing up a scenario of development of innovation demand. Article is written in Ukrainian
Kuzmin O. Y., Adamiv M. Y.
Method of Prospective Diagnosis of Weak Signals of Potential Phenomena by Types of Company Activity (p. 69 - 74)
Modern uncertain and hardly predictable conditions of activity call for taking into account weak signals, which inform about appearance of potential phenomena of the functioning environment in the process of management activity of a company on the basis of probabilistic assessment. With that aim in mind a method of prospective diagnosis of weak signals of possible changes by types of company activity was developed. This method allows diagnosing a specific potential phenomenon by original weak signals from the position of its most probable appearance in a future period. Realisation of this method forms possibilities for increase of the level of preparation of a company for potential changes of conditions of its activity. Article is written in Ukrainian
Zhikharevich V. V., Matsyuk N. A.
Cellular Automata Modelling of Dynamics of Volumes of Sales of a Trade Company (p. 75 - 79)
The article substantiates expediency of use of the multi-agent simulation modelling in the study of dynamics of complex economic systems. It shows a possibility to use cellular automata in construction of simulation economic models, particularly models of consumers’ behaviour, in principle. It describes a simulation model, which could be sophisticated further for deeper analysis of a studied phenomenon. Article is written in Ukrainian
Kontseba S. M.
Economic and Mathematical Model of Optimisation of Functioning of Fruit and Vegetable Storages (p. 79 - 82)
The article offers use of economic and mathematical model of optimal functioning of fruit and vegetable storages in agricultural companies in accordance with the maximum profit criterion. The model takes into account use of fruit and vegetable infeed and shipment facilities, available and recruited labour resources, other production resources (heat, electric power, containers, etc.) and financial resources with introduction of additional restrictions. Algorithm of calculation of certain technical and economic ratios is recommended for practical realisation of the model. The proposed economic and mathematical model of fruit and vegetable storage functioning provides a possibility to optimise the following indicators: structure of stored fruit and vegetable products by types, distribution of investments by main directions including renovation of operating and expansion of existing facilities. Article is written in Ukrainian
Behter L. A.
Methodical Approach to Obtaining Integral Evaluation of Economic Safety of Agricultural Companies Using Entropy Method (p. 83 - 87)
The article modifies the model of Hartmut Bossel’s “orientor star” and methods of evaluation of the level of organisation of a socio-economic system on the basis of the method of entropy of evaluation of its stability. It conducts evaluation of stability of agricultural companies by indicators of economic safety. It gives calculation of an integral indicator of economic safety and a scheme of quarterly monitoring of economic safety of agricultural companies on the basis of the method of entropy of evaluation of its stability. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №3-2013
Nadtoka T. B., Vinogradov A. G.
Compression of indicators in diagnostics of socio-economic development of a company: problems and ways of solution (p. 88 - 96)
The article shows the role of integral indicators and methods of their construction in assessment of the state of a company in dynamics of its development. It draws attention to the problem of comparability of values, obtained through various methods of compression. It offers a method of interpretation of the rates of growth of diagnostic indicators for construction of integral assessments of both profitable and unprofitable (at some periods) companies. It substantiates expediency of analysis of rate dynamics of complex indicators. Article is written in Russian
Shpirko V. V., Moroz P. A.
Modelling dependence of economic development on realisation of the budget and monetary-credit policy of Ukraine in the post-crisis period (p. 97 - 105)
The article offers a number of economic and mathematical models of study of dependence of economic development (volumes of the gross domestic product) upon various parameters of dynamics of domestic economic system: volumes of industrial production, retail trade, export prices on steel, income of the population, level of the state debt, state spending, and so on. The authors used the created models to develop recommendations on optimisation of the budget and monetary-credit policy of Ukraine in ensuring economic growth in the post-crisis period. Article is written in Ukrainian
Koldovskiy A. V.
Hybrid dynamic model of forecasting as a tool of study of optimal currency rate in the system of currency regulation (p. 106 - 111)
The article substantiates expediency and effectiveness of application of forecasting an optimal currency rate, in the basis of which a hybrid dynamical model is laid down. The model is composed through conceptual merger of regression, simplifies algorithmic economic and mathematical models and integrated model of autoregression. However, it is not quite correct to state about unequivocal adherence to forecast values of the currency rate on the basis of the developed model, since not only internal factors can change , but the external environment too. At the same time, availability of properly forecasted and scientifically justified optimal level of the currency rate in Ukraine allows making efficient management decisions on tools of regulation of the currency rate and timeliness of their application. These specific features become topical under conditions of financial instability and cyclic nature of development of economic processes both in the state and at the level of the world economic processes. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №4-2013
Bakurova A. V.
Entropy Assessment of the State of Trade Balance (p. 138 - 141)
The article offers to use entropy indicators along with traditional statistical methods for assessment of the level of diversification of geographic and specific structure of foreign economic turnover of goods and services. Application of the method is useful for identification of unused potential in two-sided relations in the market of goods and services, for increase of their diversity and strengthening their viability. Article is written in Russian
Ivanov Y. B., Malyshko Y. M.
Assessment of influence of taxation conditions on financial state of industrial companies with the use of fuzzy-multiple analysis of indicators (p. 142 - 147)
The article is devoted to justification and development of theoretical and methodical provisions with respect to determination of efficiency of reformation of the tax legislation of Ukraine. It considers methodical foundations of assessment of influence of macroeconomic factors on company activity. It improves methods of assessment of influence of changes of taxation conditions on the financial state of industrial companies of Ukraine, which is conducted on the basis of a multi-criteria analysis with the use of fuzzy sets. It justifies a necessity of further introduction of changes into the norms of the Tax Code of Ukraine in the direction of resistance to washing-out of circulating funds of the Ukrainian industry. The improved methods allow determination of the character of influence of introduced changes in regulatory and legislative acts in the field of taxation on the production system. Article is written in Ukrainian
Nevezhin V. P., Bogomolov A. I.
Standardisation and Integration of Mathematic Models of Economic Systems as a Component of the Knowledge Industry (p. 148 - 151)
The article discusses a possibility of obtaining new knowledge from integration of several economic and mathematical models, submerged into a single information environment in the form of a semantic web and described in a standard form in a special language of knowledge and conceptual maps, into one model. It provides two examples of usefulness of integration of several models into one model. Article is written in Russian
Burtnyak I. V., Malytska H. P.
Calculation of Option Prices using Methods of Spectral Analysis (p. 152 - 157)
The article develops a systematic method of calculation of an approximate price for a wide range of securities with the help of instruments of spectral analysis, singular and regular wave theory. Price of options depend on stochastic volatility, which depends on a method. Finding the price is reduced to solution of a problem of finding own values and own functions of a specific equation. Article is written in Ukrainian
Voronin A. V., Gunko O. V.
A Discrete Model of Market Adaptation (p. 158 - 162)
The article offers a dynamic model of market price formation and production, which allows identification of general regularities of influence of production and technological specific features upon evolution of an economic system. Balance relations, which unite approaches of L. Walras and A. Marshall for description of dynamics of prices and volumes of industrial production of one commodity in the market, serve as the theoretical basis of building the model. Synthesised mathematical model is a system of two linear differential equations for identifying price and volume of the commodity in discrete time. Conditions of stability of the equilibrium position have been obtained for this dynamic system and a relevant parametric analysis was conducted. The article considers in detail periodical modes of functioning of the studied system from the point of view of the theory of economic cycles. The problem of influence of autonomous fluctuations on the demand side in general upon dynamics of price formation and volume of commodity output are considered as an example. Numerical results, which demonstrate all types of fluctuation behaviour including harmonic beat and resonance, are presented with the help of the means of computer modelling. Article is written in Russian
Karpets O. S., Chuiko I. M.
Modelling Financial Mechanism of Increase of Efficiency of Personnel Labour (p. 162 - 166)
The article considers the problem of building an effective system of stimulation of personnel of a company with the use of the theory of active systems: parameters, system type and main goals of its functioning are identified. It builds a general mathematic model of stimulation of personnel, the further study of which would allow construction of its functional correlations and development of effective personified model of stimulation of personnel of a company. Article is written in Ukrainian
Oglikh V. V., Yefanova T. I.
Optimisation of the investment programme of the region development (p. 166 - 171)
The article is devoted to the problem of formation of integral and efficient regional investment portfolio of projects, which would assist the region to come to a new economic and social level. The article considers variants on solution of this problem by means of solution of a dynamic and combinatoric task of optimisation with parameters, which are a solution of the task of making decisions with linguistic variables. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №5-2013
Popov V. A., Semenov V. P.
Formation of a Consumer Basket Under Conditions of Uncertain Inflation (p. 73 - 76)
The article shows that inflation could be controled in the consumer market through reducing its rates and reducing inflation risks. The approach lies in consideration of risks of ingredients of the consumer choice as a component of a common consumer basket and not that of individual units. The level of correlations of price growth of goods of consumer choice lies in the centre of attention of the offered strategy of control. It is necessary to note that realisation of such measures as regulation of consumer demand and purposeful change of the structure of consumption – is a task, which could be solved only within the framework of the state policy. The state should use its power in the field of taxation, expenditures and monetary policy when eliminating economic instability. Article is written in Russian
Ustenko S. V., Pomazun O. N.
Application of PRIME-method for Managing Business Processes in a Company (p. 77 - 86)
The problem of scientific justification of coice, for example, with the use of tools of economic and mathematical modelling, stays insufficiently studied. At the same time, application of the mechanism of mathematical modelling could significantly improve the quality of the decision making. The article considers modelling of the process of decision making on selecting an information system of organisational planning and managing business processes with the use of PRIME-method. It builds a mathematic model of the task of selection of the information system and conducts analysis of the obtained results in accordance with the main provisions of the PRIME-method. In future, application of other criteria of the rules of decisions and identification of the weight of rating assessments and their analysis could be studied. The use of the PRIME-method could be expanded to making group decisions. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №6-2013
Lapshyn V. I., Kuznichenko V. M.
Deficit Model of Administering Investment Projects in Regions (p. 57 - 62)
The article considers a probabilistic approach to the deficit model of distribution of financial resources between executors of investment projects in the closed system on the basis of Markov chains, which takes into account processes of sales (receipt of money) and purchases (expenditures). This process takes into account influence of local administration, which could result in levelling financial states of project executors. The stochastic matrix of Markov chains provides with a possibility to study every step of the studied process. The use of the z-transformation method allows avoiding difficulties, which arise due to multiplicity of own values of stochastic matrices and gives a possibility to obtain an analytical form of turnover of financial resources in the period under consideration. The obtained expression simplifies analysis and calculation of states of the system compared to other models. The article identifies conditions of interaction of project executors with external systems and volumes of financial resources, which could be planned for exchange at each step of the process. Article is written in Ukrainian
Naumov V. N.
Forecasting Values of Endogenous Variables in the System of Simultaneous Equations (p. 63 - 68)
The article considers systems of simultaneous econometric equations. It offers methods of their application when solving tasks of forecasting macro-economic indicators. It provides an example of its solution for forecasting the volumes of export and import in Russia on the basis of data of the Institute of Complex Strategic Research. Article is written in Russian
Sokolovska Z. M., Yatsenko N. V.
Applied Imitation Modelling as an Analytical Basis for Managerial Decision Making (p. 69 - 76)
The article reveals application aspects of the use of imitation modelling in the process of analysis and managerial decision making. It offers a model of functioning of a utility company built on the basis of the method of system dynamics in the Ithink package environment. It provides results of imitation experiments directed at ensuring effective management of material and financial flows of a company. Article is written in Ukrainian
Akulov M. G.
Model of the Strategy of Development of Cluster-Logistic Systems (p. 76 - 81)
Functional analysis of strategic development and characteristic of properties of cluster-logistic systems on the basis of methodology of physical economy provide with a possibility to form a model that describes dynamics of the process of energy accumulation in an arbitrary open socio-economic system, which is applied to analysis of the processes of strategic development of cluster-logistic systems. The article analyses the strategy of redistribution of cluster resources for energetic strengthening of economic growth. Article is written in Ukrainian
Vaskiv O. M., Zdrok V. V.
Mathematical Model and Automation of Information Technology Planning of Production and Economic Activity of a Company (p. 81 - 87)
The article develops a mathematical model of the task of increase of production capacities of a company, which helped to study the change of production output by a company. Increase of production capacities conforms to the significant law of distribution of random values, which gives ground to assert that when increasing time resource for manufacture of a product of a certain type the number of the manufactured products of this type increases. The article develops an information technology of computer realisation of the created model. In accordance with the task the number of the manufactured products is bigger than zero, that is why the function will grow with increase of . This change will be proportional to the number of the used time and volume of investments. The article provides a mathematical model, namely: theoretical-game task setting for selecting an optimal strategy of production output by an economic subject envisages calculation of optimal directions of current activity and further development of a company with the purpose of obtaining stable financial and economic indicators. Article is written in Ukrainian
Kovalenko K. S.
Identification of Crisis Situations in Financial and Economic Activity of By-Product Coke Plants (p. 87 - 94)
The article justifies a necessity of early identification of crisis situations at by-product coke plants. It develops a scheme of interconnection of main components of identification of crisis situations, which consists of three main blocks: formation of the system of identification indicators, classification of financial and economic situations of a company and automatic recognition of the situation class. The following methods of the fuzzy logic were used as instruments of realisation of the above listed blocks: the method of fuzzy clusterisation of c-averages for classification of financial and economic situations and fuzzy neural networks for recognition. The article also offers an integral indicator built upon the matrix of degrees of belonging of situations to clusters, obtained with the help of the method of fuzzy c-averages. The indicator was used in the models of recognition of crisis situations. Moreover, the article offers a two-stage algorithm of recognition of crisis situations, which includes a preliminary synthesis of fuzzy rules on the basis of the method of c-averages with further education of the obtained fuzzy model of the Sugeno type by the genetic algorithm. Article is written in Russian
Lunyakov O. V.
Inter-Country Factor Analysis of Disbalances and Stability of the Financial Sector of Economy (p. 95 - 99)
The article generalises indicators of financial stability, which are used by the National Bank for monitoring the financial sector of economy of Ukraine. It shows that the existing system of indicators of financial stability has a number of shortcomings. It justifies a necessity of carrying out an integral assessment of the financial stability and level of accumulated disbalances in the financial sector. It conducts an inter-country factor analysis, which allows marking out integral indicators of financial stability and financial disbalances. It shows that the use of indicators of financial stability with respect to identification of disbalances in the financial sector of economy is possible but it is not sufficient. A separated integral indicator of financial disbalances gives a more detailed explanation of the increase of vulnerability of the financial sector with respect to potential financial stresses. It is assumed that its use would allow a more adequate application of monetary and macro-prudential instruments of regulation. Article is written in Russian
Maksimov S. V., Monastyrskaya O. Y.
Identification of Economic Efficiency of Transportation System of a Quarry (p. 100 - 105)
The article identifies specific features of the process of transportation as a specific sphere of material production. It justifies selection of the criterion of economic efficiency of transportation systems of quarries with consideration of influence of factors of external (competitive) environment upon activity of ore mining and processing enterprises: petroleum prices and demand on products of the mining and smelting complex. It identifies a mechanism of realisation of the developed methodical approach to selection of the criterion in the process of operative and prospective planning of the work of a mine transport shop. It reveals change of economic efficiency depending on the selected criterion of economic efficiency for transportation systems of ore mining and processing enterprises of the City of Kryvyi Rih for the period 2001 – 2011 and for PJSC Central GOK by months of 2011. It identifies change of criteria indicators of economic efficiency of the transportation system: specific consumption of fuel, productivity of quarry dump trucks fleet, transportation work for PJSC Central GOK by months of 2011 in the result of optimisation and application of dynamic approach to the criterion change. Article is written in Ukrainian
Poliakova O. Y., Goltіaіeva L. A.
Main Principles of Formation of the Complex of Models of Management of Financial Risks of a Company (p. 106 - 110)
The article is devoted to basics of management of financial risks of a company. It develops a system of management of financial risks of a company and identifies main principles of its construction. It provides tasks, goals, methods and purpose of a complex of economic and mathematical models of management of financial risks of a company. Article is written in Ukrainian
Chernyshov S. I.
On Use of the Method of Dynamic Programming of Bellman in Economic Tasks (p. 110 - 119)
Method of dynamic programming (MDP) of Bellman is exceptionally efficient for solving a wide class of tasks of economic and mathematical modelling. In a number of cases MDP has no alternative. Meanwhile, statements of specialists with respect to correctness of justification of MDP and also with respect to achievements of R. Bellman are contradictory. In any case, that was the situation during the period of activity of R. Bellman and his opponents. Analysis shows that, to a big extent, these contradictions were caused by competition between Soviet and American scientists at the stage of space exploration. MDP ids based on the Bellman’s principle of optimality, which could be characterised as purely ingenious. This is an extremely transparent algorithm of the search for global extremum and is ideally fit for capabilities of computing equipment. Heritage of R. Bellman is great: from the optimal management, differential equations and game theory to economy and medicine. At the same time, methodological approaches of R. Bellman are far from orthodox views on mathematics, which partially explains critics in his address. Heritage of R. Bellman (619 articles and 39 books translated into many languages) deserves a thorough study including perspective of his economic and mathematical magnitude. Article is written in Russian
Andreishyna N. В.
Conceptual Approach to Forecasting Demand (p. 120 - 124)
The article considers a conceptual approach to forecasting demand on products of a production or trading company using economic and mathematical methods. It justifies importance of modelling and forecasting consumer demand on goods. It provides a classification of methods of forecasting demand in two dimensions: from subjective to objective ones and from na?ve to cause-effect ones. It systemises groups of factors that influence demand and analyses character of their influence. It develops a concept of forecasting demand on products of a company using economic and mathematical methods, which consists of four stages: identification of factors that influence demand, selection of mathematical dependence, check of adequacy and accuracy of the model and forecast of demand. It builds forecast demand models for a specific trading company: Brown’s adaptive polynomial model of the first order; and two-factor model, demand in which depends on the price of a good and its changes. It checks adequacy of each model and performs forecast of demand on products of a company. Article is written in Ukrainian
Yegorkina T. A.
Planning Expenditures of Industrial Enterprises With the use of Methods of Economic and Mathematical Modelling (p. 125 - 131)
The issue of search for directions of optimisation of activity of industrial enterprises of Ukraine is one of the priority tasks of their strategic development under the current crisis economic conditions. The current situation is such that the top-management of industrial enterprises practically does not pay sufficient attention to reduction of the level of expenditures of industrial enterprises, that is why the article offers to use methods of economic and mathematical modelling when planning expenditures of industrial enterprises. One of such methods is linear approximation, which gives an opportunity to use factual data about activity of enterprises, namely dynamics of expenditures of the main type of activity and dynamics of volumes of sold products, in order to build a model of dependence “expenditures of the main type of activity – volume of sales”. The built models allow determination of enterprises, at which influence of expenditures of the main activity upon the volume of sold products is positive, i.e. volume of products increases with the increase of expenditures of the main activity, and enterprises, which have either negative relation between the volume of sold products and expenditures of the main activity or positive, but the determination ratio tends to zero. The conducted analysis of the built models once more confirms a set of problems of engineering enterprises, upon solution of which further development of these enterprises and efficiency of their activity depend. A special place in this process takes planning, since it provides an opportunity to use the analysed factual data about activity of industrial enterprises in order to plan expenditures of the main type of activity and further development of enterprises. Article is written in Ukrainian
Khaver V. M.
Formation of an Economic Model on Study of a Possibility of Realisation of an Innovation Project (p. 132 - 145)
The article studies risks during execution of stages of realisation of the innovation process, builds up and describes a scale of distribution of risks with consideration of cost of a stage, obtains indicators of assessment of risks by stages of realisation of the innovation process with the help of which calculations could be made for an individual innovation project and a stage could be referred to relevant zones by a risk degree in accordance with obtained indicators. It formats and visualises notions on mutual influence of mistakes made at a certain stage upon further stages in the form of a diagram. It obtains empirical dependencies of the risk degree on effectiveness of investments for investment sums from UAH 0.1 million to UAH 25 million. It studies and offers new indicators of a possibility of realisation of an innovation project and calculates formulae for their numeric assessment. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №7-2013
Lapshyn V. I., Kuznichenko V. M., Stetsenko T. V.
Criteria Method of Analytical Stochastic Procedure of Decision Making Support (p. 80 - 84)
The article develops a criteria method of analytical stochastic procedure for decision making when applying the method of paired comparison. It uses properties of the stochastic matrix. The offered procedure excludes ambiguity in decision making when a number of alternatives and criteria increase if compared with the method of hierarchy analysis. The article studies possibilities of application of this procedure for justification by authorities of decisions on realisation of new municipal loans in the context of managing the municipal debt. It shows that the developed method could be used when selecting object for budget investments. Article is written in Ukrainian
Babenko V. O.
Formation of a Dynamic Model of Multi-criteria Optimisation of Management of Innovation Processes of Processing Enterprises of the Agro-industrial Complex (p. 85 - 88)
The article studies theoretical foundations and improvement of methods of dynamic modelling of management of innovation processes of processing enterprises of the agro-industrial complex, development of a dynamic task of multi-criteria optimisation of management of innovation processes of processing enterprises and general approaches to its solution. Article is written in Russian
Birskiy V. V.
Adaptive Management of the Level of Economic Security of an Enterprise (p. 89 - 92)
The article formulates and solves the task of modelling of the level of economic security of industrial enterprises in the process of their economic activity under conditions of volatile external environment. The developed approach to assessment of the level of economic security is built on the basis of comparison of a set of external threats with the level of enterprise protectability, which is the indicator of its resistance to undesired changes. Article is written in Ukrainian
Geseleva N. V., Zaritskaya N. N.
Emergent Properties of the System (p. 93 - 97)
The article considers approaches to definition of the “emergency” notion and provides foundations of emergent properties of the system and emergent strategies of enterprise management. Article is written in Ukrainian
Dubnitskiy V. Y., Khodyrev A.
Comparative Analysis of Correspondence of Hypotheses on Statistical Properties of Stock Market Indicators with Real Observations (p. 97 - 104)
The article provides results of comparative primary analysis of basis and chain indices of growth, which characterise dynamics of the stock market. It identifies auto-correlation functions of these indicators in order to determine the depth of the market memory. It calculates the Hurst exponent for indicators of the dynamics of the stock market. It computes the ratio of canonical correlation between the financial and real component of the financial market. Using the Foster-Stewart criterion it establishes absence of a trend in the dynamics of indicators, with the exception of the GOLD indicator, which has an exponential trend. Bachelier hypothesis with respect to availability of logarithmically normal distribution of relation of two consecutive values of dynamics indicators did not find experimental confirmation. This complicates a possibility of use of the Wiener process for forecasting indicators of the stock market for a long period of time. Article is written in Ukrainian
Kravets T. V.
Modelling Profitabilities of Stock Indices Using Methods of Wavelet Analysis (p. 104 - 109)
The article considers specific features of European stock indices and conducts their comparative analysis. The goal of the study lies in localisation and description of crisis effects by time and scale in the dynamics of indices with the help of the wavelet transformation. This approach allows revelation of clusters of stock indices and study of their common and individual specific features. Combination of the wavelet-transformation, neural networks and SSA methods is used for forecasting dynamics of indices. Article is written in Ukrainian
Kvasniy L. G., Soltysik O. O.
Theoretical Model of Development of the Industrial Sector of the Carpathian Region Economy (p. 110 - 114)
The article analyses the socio-economic condition of the Carpathian region. It establishes that the goal of conducting restructuring in the Carpathian region is creation of entrepreneurs capable of effective functioning under modern conditions of the Ukrainian economy. The article studies mechanisms of restructuring of enterprises in the region. The developed theoretical model of development of the Carpathian region industry allows forecasting the condition of objects by stages of development. Article is written in Ukrainian
Oglikh V. V., Golovko A. V.
Demographic Aspect of Modelling a Transition Stage of the Pension System (p. 114 - 118)
The article presents a study of reformation of the pension system of Ukraine. Modelling on the basis of the evolution theory allowed conduct of analysis of demographic tendencies of the Ukrainian society for the transition stage of reformation and further development. It mathematically proves the necessity of state administration of demographic parameters. Article is written in Ukrainian
Ostapenko I. N., Semenova L. S.
Ways of Increase of Intellectual Potential of a Higher Educational Establishment (HES) (p. 119 - 123)
The goal of the article is to identify possible ways of increase of intellectual potential of a HES, to consider problems of poor digestion of knowledge by students of economic specialties, to show advantages of work in small groups in teaching subjects of the mathematic cycle. The object of the study are problems of “poor receipt” of knowledge by students of economic HESs. Active methods of teaching subjects of the mathematical cycle are considered as one of the ways to awake student’s interest in the subject, rouse its understanding and applying in further labour activity. Instruments of the study are economic and mathematical methods that allow quantitative analysis of the obtained results. Overcoming the problems of “loss” of knowledge results in the growth of its intellectual potential. Result of the study is justification of use of the methods of active teaching in the process of teaching subjects of the mathematical cycle, positive impact of work in small groups on digestion of knowledge, and revelation of main reasons of “loss” of knowledge by students. Article is written in Russian
Potrashkova L. V.
Modelling Company’s Activity With Consideration of its Socio-economic Relations as an Instrument of Assessment of Company’s Potential (p. 123 - 129)
The article conducts a study and offers an approach to the resulting assessment of company’s potential on the basis of the system of imitation models of activity of a company and expert reflexive models of decisions of company’s stake-holders, which depend on the asset of socio-economic relations of a company. Article is written in Russian
Sherstennikov Y. V.
Modelling Development of a Small Company under Competitive Market Conditions (p. 129 - 135)
The article conducts an economic and mathematical model of production activity of a small company. The model takes into account interconnection between parameters of production and current characteristics of the market. The article conducts model studies of impact of advertising campaign on a small company development. The detailed information about market conditions, which is contained in the model, gives a possibility to perform optimisation of an advertising campaign and achieve a desired economic result. Article is written in Ukrainian
Pisanets K. K.
Models of Assessment of the Credit Risk of Borrowers with a Time Parameter for the Systems of Application Credit Scoring (p. 136 - 140)
The article considers a concept of introduction of the time factor into the models of application credit scoring as a key characteristic of a default level. Using example of data of the consumption segment of the credit market of Ukraine, the article presents results of modelling the credit risk of potential borrowers (applicants), using approaches of Kaplan-Meier and Cox. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №8-2013
Grinko O. L., Khohlov V. V.
To the Issue of Assessment of Stability of Bank Deposits under Conditions of Economic Instability (p. 106 - 110)
The article conducts assessment of influence of the crisis and economic instability on dynamics of deposits of Ukrainian and EU banks. The scope of the study of stability of bank deposits is limited by the impact of macro-economic factors, which are reflected in GDP. The article marks out opposite tendencies in formation of deposits of domestic and foreign banks: relative rates of deposits and GDP of European countries have a positive sign, which means increase of the inflow of deposits in the event of reduction of GDP, stability of deposits of domestic banks is characterised with the completely opposite dependence. Article is written in Russian
Chanysheva A. F.
Confidence Regions in Econometrics of Complex Variables (p. 110 - 116)
The article is a result of a complex study devoted to laying the foundation of the complex-valued economy – modern prospective direction in the field of socio-economic forecasting. The article is devoted to the issues of obtaining interval estimates for complex-valued linear regression equations. The author substantiates selection of the form of confidence regions and also considers three approaches to its building up. On the basis of the study, the article draws a conclusion that practically all factual values of the observed variable are inside the confidence region, calculated for confidence probability 95%. This testifies to a good selection of the model to the original data and effectiveness of the method of finding confidence regions offered in this article. Article is written in Russian
Kobziev P. M., Kotliar A. A.
Constructive System Approach to Managing Domestic Enterprises as Market Systems (p. 117 - 122)
The article identifies system reasons of the low level of competitiveness of domestic enterprises and a necessity to eliminate them through the use of a constructive system approach to managing the level of their state. The goal of the article is to present the constructive instruments for managing the system state of organisational and economic systems called “enterprise”, in the basis of which there is a modern system and cybernetic approaches to management, based on determination of quantitative values of the managed parameters. The article provides a system model for parametric identification of an enterprise as an object of management and a model of assessment of the level of its system state. It builds a graphic profile of the system state of an enterprise and presents its parametric interpretation. It presents a technology of realisation of system changes in the state of an enterprise and determines methods of transition to cybernetic management of domestic enterprises for achievement of the target level of their system state. Article is written in Russian
Stepanenko O. P.
Modelling Synergetic Effects in Development of the Banking System (p. 123 - 127)
The article studies the processes of functioning and development of the banking system under modern conditions. It considers issues of corporate interaction in the banking sector and also builds a model of co-ordinated interaction between the structural elements of the banking system and identifies conditions of appearance of synergetic effects in the banking system. The obtained results prove expediency of development and support of functioning of the corporate infrastructure of the banking system, allow increase of profit of individual elements of the banking system, assess synergetic effects in development of the banking system and, as a result, increase of effectiveness of functioning of the banking system in general. Since increase of effectiveness of functioning of the banking system positively influences economies of the countries, the prospective directions are studies of the processes of interaction of elements of corporate infrastructure of the banking system with external environment and also establishment of a possibility of applying principles of corporate interaction and appearance of synergetic effects in such processes. Article is written in Ukrainian
Sherstennikov Y. V.
Model Optimisation of Production, Storage and Sales of Goods (p. 128 - 134)
The article develops a new economic and mathematical model of production, storage and sales of goods with consideration of mutually co-ordinated connection between parameters of production and current market characteristics. The model allows taking into consideration both market characteristics and enterprise logistics. The model differs from the earlier proposed by the following: a) it takes into account the process of movement of goods to the market in more details; b) it describes in more details all stages of the project execution – the transitional stage in the beginning of the project, the stage of enterprise operation under more or less stable conditions and the final stage of the project. The article applies the developed model for optimisation of the process of planning. The proposed model was used for development of methods of calculation and study of optimal project solutions, which allow conduct of the comparative analysis of various investment projects under different market conditions of enterprise functioning. Article is written in Ukrainian
Kabanenko Y. V.
Mathematical Model of the Information Flow (p. 135 - 138)
When assessing effect from conducting measures on managing material, information and financial flows in logistical systems of enterprises, a need arises in creation of information systems with the use of analytical instruments. The probabilistic character of formation and receipt of information requires, in the process of modelling information systems, use of mathematical instruments, more often – theory of Markov processes and mechanism of the theory of waiting lines. The article build an analytical model of the information system on the basis of a local file-server network on the basis of identification of the system functioning with a continuous Markov process. It develops methods of identification of main characteristics of the system: average number of users that are waiting for response and average duration of waiting for response to the user’s inquiry. Article is written in Ukrainian
Nikitina A. V.
Methodical Instruments of Assessment of the Level of Economic Security of Enterprises on the Basis of Use of the Methods of Factor Analysis (p. 139 - 144)
The article reveals the essence of main modern concepts of assessment of economic security of enterprises. Based on general provisions of the management theory and having studied scientific sources, the article conducts generalisation of modern scientific approaches to assessment of economic security of enterprises, which allowed allocation of the existing base of fundamental studies on assessment of a certain economic category, but they, unfortunately, do not provide a complete and complex characteristic of economic security of enterprises. The article justifies that the process of purposeful selection of relevant indicators for their use in the process of assessment, in other words formation of the information base that would be used for further study, is an important basis for carrying out assessment of the level of economic security of enterprises. Moreover, information for carrying out such a procedure should correspond with the requirements of authenticity, completeness, importance, timeliness, clarity, etc. The composition of indicators of sub-systems of economic security of an enterprise should reflect its specific nature of activity of each sphere of activity of an enterprise and be adjusted in the course of time. The article offers a methodical approach to assessing the level of economic security on the basis of application of the method of factor analysis. It justifies a necessity of further development of theoretical aspects of economic security. A prospective direction of further studies is determination of main threats to functional components of economic security of enterprises and ways of their reduction or localisation with consideration of the industry belonging. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №9-2013
Gambarov L. A., Shevchenko S. V., Chernyshova N. P.
Optimisation of Production, Distribution and Supply of Electric Energy under the Conditions of the Energy Market of Ukraine (p. 68 - 72)
The article considers approaches to modelling production, distribution and supply of electric energy in the energy system of Ukraine under conditions of the energy market. It considers specific features of electric energy as a commodity and, as a consequence of these specific features, a disbalance between supply and consumption of electric energy. It justifies appearance of the task of co-ordination of volumes of production and supply with the established level of demand, subject to dynamic changes, under conditions of deficit of resources. It takes into account that electric energy is delivered to consumers through intermediary nodes – pumped-storage plants. The authors propose to reduce the task of finding an optimal plan of transmission of electric energy from points of production to points of consumption with minimisation of transportation expenditures to a multi-dimensional transportation task with intermediary nodes. The article formulates a mathematical model of this task, provides algorithms of its solution and considers a practical example of application of the proposed approach and provides analysis of the obtained results. Article is written in Russian
Kuzmin O. Y., Melnyk O. H., Hanas L. M.
Identification of Areas of Functional Sectors of the Production Reserves Storehouse (p. 73 - 77)
The article considers positions of scientists with respect to division of the area of a storehouse into sectors and zones, analyses their classifications and generalises opinions on allocation of relevant types. On the basis of analysis the article allocates and graphically interprets functional sectors of the production reserves storehouse with their differentiation by relevant zones and provides a brief characteristic of each type. It provides methods of identification of areas of functional sectors, zones and total area of the production reserves storehouse. It offers tools that allow calculation of the area of the storehouse, the purpose of which is storing production reserves with consideration of functional sectors and availability or required zones in them. It conducts respective generalisations and identifies significance of this method of identification of areas of functional sectors and zones of the production reserves storehouse. Article is written in Ukrainian
Tymohyn V. M., Podskrebko O. S.
Discrete-Event Modelling of Conveyor Lines (p. 78 - 84)
The goal of the article is a study of specific features of application of discrete-event modelling in the process of making managerial decisions connected with re-trimming of a conveyor line of a major industrial enterprise. Analysing and systemising scientific works of domestic and foreign scientists, the author focuses on insufficiency of development of issues connected with application of simulation modelling to re-trimming of conveyor lines. The article considers aspects of discrete-event modelling in the process of making managerial decisions connected with identification of bottle-necks of the system using methodology of the limitations theory and analysis of possibilities of their elimination, i.e. increase of effectiveness of system functioning. The author provides a discrete-event model of the process of compressor assembly. The provided model allows detection of bottle-necks in the system and also analysis of various possibilities of their elimination. Article is written in Russian
Yakimova L. P.
Modelling the Space-Time Dynamics of the Pension Social Medium (p. 84 - 89)
The article offers and studies a cellular automaton multi-agent imitation model of dynamics of the process of propagation of the non-state pension provision (NPP) that allows imitation and visualisation of the space-time dynamics of the pension social medium, reproduction of mechanisms of inter-subject interaction in the social medium differentiated by socio-psychological and role properties with consideration of a synergetic effect of joint impact of agents of the NPP system and influence of mass media on the subjects of the social medium. A series of imitation experiments allowed establishment of dependence of scenarios of evolution of the pension social medium on parameters of the process of propagation of NPP: ratios of coverage of the pension social medium by professional agents and mass media, number of effective contacts, ratio of reduction of the level of distrust of the population to NPP, level of perception of information of NPP agents and level of their influence. The article detects regular attractors in evolution of the pension social medium, the moments of appearance and characteristics of which depend on parameters of the process of propagation of NPP, some of these parameters are controlled. Article is written in Ukrainian
Sokolovskyi D. B.
Modelling «Horizontal» Interaction of Economic Agents with the Help of a Collection of Games (p. 90 - 94)
The subject of the article is modelling horizontal and vertical interaction of economic subjects, realised, in particular, by sales and employment contracts. Complexity of models of “horizontal” relationship is the reason of significantly smaller, compared to the models of “vertical” relationship, buildups. That is why, the article makes an effort to simplify the general model of “horizontal” interaction of economic agents. The article offers a model of “horizontal” relationship of two economic subjects, each of which can stick to a contract concluded between them, avoid its execution and control contract execution by its opposite. The article establishes that the sales contract could be determined by a collection of games used for modelling employment contract through decomposition of the game for describing of interaction of the general type. It specifies conditions of this decomposition. In other words, the sales contract model could be positioned as a generalisation of the employment contract model. Moreover, it formulates decision making by an individual agent with respect to distribution of limited resources between the control of the opposite and planning of own activity. The offered models could be applied in the contract theory, for example, for a more detailed description of the sales contract. It is planned to use the results in various subject fields through specification of payment functions of the model games. Better understanding of their nature with the help of study of the offered models would facilitate increase of quality and reasoning of contracts, for example, from the legal point of view. It is planned to conduct further development of studies in the direction of solutions of models that have the production type at the moment, finding conditions of the Nash equilibrium and analysing logic of evolution of interaction of counter-agents. Article is written in Ukrainian
Melnyk H. V.
Modelling the System of Managing Information Risks in the Corporate Information System (p. 95 - 99)
The goal of the article lies in the study of possibilities of Petri nets for modelling the system of managing information risks in the corporate information system. The article offers to use fuzzy timed Petri nets with inhibitory links for modelling dynamics of permitting or forbidding access of users to the objects of the computer system. In the result of the study the article builds up a fuzzy timed Petri net with inhibitory links that allows modelling dynamics of the process of authentication and identification of the user, control of correspondence of differentiation of rights of access to information resources of the computer system. The prospect of further studies in this direction is the use of Petri nets for formation of fuzzy conclusions on effectiveness of the system of managing information risks in the corporate system. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №10-2013
Klokov V. I.
Modelling Dynamics of Brain Drain (p. 77 - 79)
Success and vector of development of any country is significantly determined by solution of dual problems: on the one hand, problems of brain drain and, on the other hand, attraction of highly qualified specialists into different branches of production and management. Using the method proposed by Academician Arnold V. I., the article builds a dynamic model of assessment of a number of scientists in a country. The obtained results of expert assessments allow making a quantitative assessment of possible scenarios of development of science in a country and prospects of its modernisation. The model is applicable during a short period of time, since during a long period of time it does not work due to satiety and needs to be developed further. Article is written in Russian
Klymenyuk M. M., Kocharyan I. S., Golovanenko M. V., Klymeniuk O. M.
Modelling the System of Analysis of Educational Facilities of High Educational Establishments (p. 80 - 85)
The article is devoted to creation of the system of processing and analysis of information on educational facilities of higher education establishments. Importance of development of information systems in the sphere of education is underlined with scientific importance of this task and significant volume of efforts directed at practical introduction of information systems in the system of education. The article presents a scheme of formation of elementary indicators and their reformation in accordance with needs of customers, provides assessments of dimension of the scorecard of educational facilities using example of one state customer – Ministry of Culture of Ukraine – and provides a fragment of the database of regulatory and reference information about educational facilities of higher educational establishments of the Ministry of Culture of Ukraine. In order to present practical possibilities of application of the approach to building up the information system, test software was developed. In order to store the main information database and auxiliary reference information, the developers used Microsoft Access, however, Microsoft Excel was used as an interface, since it provides more flexible possibilities of additional processing of user queries. The presented models, methods and information technologies of accumulation, processing and presenting information on educational facilities allow provision of all subjects of management with relevant information for making decisions on planning and development of higher education. Article is written in Ukrainian
Svetunkov S. G., Vyshynskа T. L.
Complex-valued Modelling of the Shadow Economy in the Sphere of Foreign Trade of Ukraine (p. 86 - 92)
The article analyses methods, which could be used for identification of volumes of shadow flows when carrying out foreign trade operations, and shows their shortcomings. It specifies the “mirror statistics” method as the main one for determining volumes of shadow export and import operations. It compares data on foreign trade of Ukraine with main trade partners (EU-27, CIS, China and USA). It identifies factual volumes of import of goods to Ukraine and export of goods from Ukraine. It builds an economic and mathematical regression model using principles of the complex-valued economy. It identifies values of a complex ratio of the pair correlation between: legal and shadow export of Ukraine and complex factors of import; complex indicators of development of Ukraine and legal and shadow export. Article is written in Russian
Skalozub V. V., Klymenko I. V.
Interpretation and Forecasting Processes, Represented by Time Series, on the Basis of the Extended Logistic Mapping (p. 92 - 97)
The article studies a possibility of use of methods of non-linear dynamics for structuring an operative forecast of complex and structured processes described by time series. It offers a model of extended logistic mapping for interpretation of characteristics of dynamic processes. It studies procedures of interpretation of data and forecasting parameters of the processes, represented by time series, that use models of extended logistic mapping. It offers methods of recurrent structuring of an operative forecast. In order to increase accuracy of obtained results, the article recommends to correct values of model parameters by means of assessment of new sets of values by the method of exponential smoothing. It provides results of application of the model of extended logistic mapping for structuring an operative forecast of processes of the railway transport, in particular, assessment of parameters of the carriage traffic volumes. Article is written in Russian
Bizyanov Y. Y., Glinska T. S.
Fuzzy Cognitive Model of Flows of Receipt of Funds from Investment Projects (p. 97 - 101)
The goal of the article is development of methods of building up a fuzzy cognitive model of flows of receipt of funds from realisation of investment projects. In the result of analysis of existing methods and models of assessment of investment projects the article finds out that one of the problems is forecasting benefits expected from them (profit, saving). The article shows that forecasting of outgoing flows of investment projects is characterised with uncertainty and subjectivity of original data, which results in the necessity to use models and methods that use fuzzy logic. The article offers methods of building up a fuzzy cognitive model, the essence of which lie in a transition from linguistic description of the data domain to the cognitive model with further allocation of fuzzy dependencies between the data domain objects (model concepts and which ends with mathematical description of these dependencies. Such an approach allows reduction of the subjective component in assessment of investment projects and making the process of their assessment more transparent. The article also gives an example of realisation of a fuzzy cognitive model for assessment of an investment project of development of the coal mining enterprise, which illustrates a practical application of the methods. Article is written in Russian
Yevstrat D. I., Prykhodko A. O.
Application of Optimisation Models for Planning Expenditures of a Production Enterprise (p. 102 - 106)
The article describes essence of planning of activity of a production enterprise, considers reasons of appearance of the problem of planning and analyses widespread methods of solution of this problem. It offers an imitation model, described by the system of differential equations, which reflects behaviour and interconnection of main financial indicators of a production enterprise and takes into account external investments, sets and solves the optimisation task and builds up the management model. The described method allows finding various optimal managerial decisions depending on the selected quality criterion and is a more flexible instrument than traditional methods of linear programming, methods of forecasting with the help of neural networks, fuzzy programming, dynamic models, described by systems of managed differential equations. Article is written in Russian
Kvita H. M., Shikovets K. O., Klymenko Y. I.
Modelling and risk management in JSC Ukrainian Joint Stock Insurance Company ASKA-LIFE (p. 107 - 112)
The article considers a topical issue of assessment of a risk and its management using specific economic object. When detecting and managing risks, it is necessary to analyse a risk situation through allocation of objects (economic systems, efficiency and conditions of functioning of which are not identified properly), subjects (individuals or collectives that are interested in the result of risk management) and sources of risk (factors, phenomena and processes, which are characterised with an uncertainty of the result of activity). In the result of the conducted study a risk management programme was developed and implemented at the economic object and this programme consists of the following stages: detection of factors and risk formation; risk assessment; ranking and selection of those risks for which active methods of management are used; selection of methods of influence upon risks and efficiency of their use. Article is written in Ukrainian
Kononova K. Y., Akulov M. V.
Evolution of Macro-generations: Multi-agent Approach (p. 113 - 117)
The article offers an approach to modelling macro-economic dynamics as a process of change of macro-generations, which envisages a preliminary analysis of macro-dynamics with the use of the production function, justification of the model of an individual macro-generation, revelation of macro-generations and assessment of their parameters, analysis and interpretation of their evolution phases. The preliminary study allowed formulation of an assumption of a multi-agent model of macro-economic dynamics. In order to test them in the NetLogo software environment, the article builds up a model of evolution of macro-generations. In the course of modelling the article obtains macro-effects, which are not available in behaviour of each individual agent, experimentally confirms theoretical assumptions with respect to the moments of origination and dynamics of macro-generations. The obtained results completely agree with theoretical prerequisites and conclusions of preceding studies and allow making a conclusion about suitability of this approach for analysis of evolution processes in economy. Article is written in Russian
Naumova M. A.
Model of Optimisation of Investment Expenditures (p. 118 - 122)
The market economy provides such conditions when all enterprises are connected, to a certain degree, with the investment activity and with making investment decisions. Each enterprise has limited financial resources, available for investing. This results in appearance of the task of optimisation of investment decisions. The modern micro- and macro-economic theories use such a powerful method as mathematic modelling. Using mathematics allows allocation and formal description of the most significant properties of economic processes and studying these properties and making conclusions that would be adequate to the studied process. That is why, it becomes topical to search for methods of study and calculation of mathematical models of complex processes, dynamics of which is described by non-linear systems. The article considers the model of management of investment decisions with the Cobb–Douglas production function. It provides a mathematical task setting for maximisation of the sum of profit. Using the principle of maximum, the article obtains the system of non-linear differential equations. It conducts a quality analysis of the system with the help of its phase portrait near points of equilibrium. Article is written in Russian
Orlenko N. S., Naumenko I. V.
Forecasting Sales Volume in the Balanced Scorecard (p. 122 - 125)
The article considers the problem of identification and use of mathematical models of forecasting sales volumes in the balanced scorecard. It studies one structural subdivision of an enterprise – planning and identifies main models of planning of sales volumes. It justifies expediency of use of the model, which is based on the method of forecasting demand on goods (services) of seasonal consumption and goods of long-term use for planning sales volumes of an enterprise that deals with repair of carriages. Article is written in Ukrainian
Khayluk S. O.
Model of Assessment of Probability of the Serviceable Condition of the Banking System (p. 126 - 129)
The goal of the article lies in justification of the model of assessment of probability of the serviceable condition of the banking system. Analysing, systemising and generalising scientific works of many scientists, the article introduces the “serviceability of the banking system” notion as one of indicators of reliability of the banking system. In the result of the study the article develops a simplified element structure scheme of reliability of the banking system, which includes three elements: NBU, aggregate of banks of the second level and aggregate of economic subjects that work with banks. The article offers a method of assessment of probability of the serviceable condition of the banking system with a possibility of possible restoration of all its elements in case of certain malfunctions, which is based on provisions of the theory of reliability of complex systems. The further studies would consider more complex schemes that include possibilities of loaded and not loaded reservation. Article is written in Ukrainian
Chagovets L. O.
Modelling Production and Fiscal Effects in the System of Economic Security of a State (p. 130 - 135)
The article considers issues of modelling of production and fiscal effects as very important instruments of the system of economic security of a state. It builds economic and mathematical models of interconnection of fiscal indicators and socio-economic state of the state on the basis of production and institution functions. It studies dynamics of the fiscal clearance on the basis of estimated parameters of production functions, which take into account, in their specification, the generalised tax load and also the loads by most important types of taxes separately. The article proves existence of a number of inconsistencies and imbalance of movement of financial flows in the economic system. It builds an imitation model of assessment of the tax base with consideration of fiscal indicators, with the help of which it conducts analysis of scenarios of a number of imitation experiments, which assess possibilities of expansion of the tax base and harmonisation or relations of the production sector and budget interests of the state. Article is written in Russian
Sherstennikov Y. V.
Modelling Duopoly with Consideration of Logistics, Limited Production and Advertising (p. 135 - 141)
Management of competitiveness of a production enterprise is connected directly with the issues of formation of competitive strategies and needs a comprehensive analysis of those components of the enterprise activity, which could become a basis of formation and strengthening of stable competitive advantages. The existing models do not take into consideration the market infrastructure and, that is why, are poorly suited for the use in the practical work of a firm in the competitive market. The article develops a dynamic model of strategic interaction of the firms that deal with production, storage and sales of goods of everyday use – in the duopoly market with consideration of logistics, limited production and advertising. The model allows taking into consideration the interconnection of the current state of the market and current production facilities of enterprises. The conducted analysis of the strategies of competitive firms detected a considerable influence of the advertising campaign upon results of economic activity of duopolists. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №11-2013
Lukianenko I. G.
Methods of Stress Testing of Financial Stability of Ukrainian Enterprises (p. 57 - 64)
The goal of the article lies in adaptation of the procedure of stress testing for assessment of financial stability of enterprises and development of adequate economic and mathematical instruments for its conduct. It was revealed during the study that the proposed approach allows not only obtaining a forecast assessment of financial stability in future periods of enterprise activity but also all-sided study and quantitative assessment of its reaction on action of internal and external stresses in short-term and long-term prospects. This article proves that main stages of the conduct of a stress test at the enterprise level are analysis of external environment and identification of potential markets; identification of indicators that meet the detected risks and stresses; development and specification of the economic and mathematical model, that is used for running scenarios, which should be oriented at unfavourable but quite probable events. The conducted studies confirmed prospectiveness of the use of longitudinal data models and vector auto-regression models, including error correction models when conducting stress testing at the level of the branch and an individual enterprise. The obtained results could be used as a basis for further development and improvement of the method of stress testing of financial stability of economic subjects and also for identification of the model of stress testing of individual branches of the Ukrainian economy. Article is written in Ukrainian
Rayevnyeva O. V., Karpenko A. S.
Formation of a Spectrum of Managerial Impacts on the Change of Behaviour of an Industrial Enterprise (p. 65 - 70)
The article forms, on the basis of impulse analysis, a complex of managerial influences directed at adjustment of the future vector of development of a Ukrainian enterprise the main target orientation of which is export of goods and services. The article offers to use the cognitive modelling method as an instrument of managing the economic subject behaviour. The developed spectrum of managerial impacts would allow changing the level of development of an industrial export-oriented enterprise in the forecast period from the descending stage to ascending stage of the business cycle. Article is written in Ukrainian
Novak S. M.
Methods of Optimisation of the Structure of the Dealing Bank with a Limited Base of Counter-Agents (p. 70 - 75)
The article considers methods of assessment of optimal parameters of the dealing bank service with a limited base of counter-agents. The methods are based on the mathematical model of micro-structure of the inter-bank currency market. The key parameters of the infrastructure of the dealing service within the framework of the model are: number of authorised traders, contingent of counter-agents, quotation policy, main parameters of the currency market – spread and volatility of quotations and the resulting indicators of efficiency of the dealing service – profit and probability of breakeven operation. The methods allow identification of optimal parameters of the infrastructure of the dealing bank service based on indicators of dynamics of currency risks and market environment of the bank. On the basis of the developed mathematical model the article develops methods of planning calculations of parameters of the infrastructure of the dealing bank service, which are required for ensuring a necessary level of efficiency with set parameters of the currency market. Application of the said methods gives a possibility to assess indicators of operation of the bank’s front office depending on its scale. Article is written in Ukrainian
Klymenko V. O., Sokyrko O. S.
Study of the Character of Functional Links Between the Main Integral Indicators of the Market of Voluntary Personal Insurance in Ukraine (p. 75 - 80)
The article presents a multi-factor econometric model that demonstrates availability of a linear dependence of insurance settlements on a number of “life” insurance companies and gross insurance premiums in the market of personal insurance of Ukraine. Values of parameters of the econometric method satisfy conditions of validity and efficiency and their insignificant shift is justified by the use of the ridge regression. Use of the latter was necessary, since a multi-collinearity was detected. A conclusion could be made from this model about monopolisation of the market of personal insurance in Ukraine. Similar conclusion could be made on the basis of the developed by us econometric model of dependency of a number of “life” insurance companies on average monthly spendings of the population with consideration of the inflation. The article conducts assessment of the market of voluntary personal insurance with the help of the model data and makes conclusion on its future prospects. Article is written in Ukrainian
Laktionova O. A., Zakorko M. V.
System of Indicators of the Level of Costs of Financing an Economic Subject (p. 81 - 90)
The article offers a system of indicators of the level of costs of financing economic subjects, in the basis of which there is a function of formation of recommendations or identification of directions and priorities in the part of selection of one or another source of financing, its urgency and specific features of attraction of resources, on the basis of information on the level of agent’s costs, information asymmetry costs, financial instability, transaction and market indicators of cost of financial resources. The article pays a special attention to a significant structure forming factor of the ownership structure, which identifies the volume and logic of interconnection of all costs of financing and determining incentives and risks in the system of management of financial activity of an economic subject from the point of view of all participants. It exerts especially big influence upon formation of such implicit costs of financing as agent’s costs and information asymmetry costs. The system of factors of stimulants and de-stimulants of costs of financing includes factors of external environment (macro-economic and market indicators of cost and institutional provision) and internal environment (ownership structure, characteristic of investment activity and financing an economic subject, organisation of business and corporate management). Article is written in Russian
Medvedeva M. I.
Problems of Outsourcing when Repairing and Servicing Production Equipment (p. 91 - 95)
The article is devoted to the issue of calculation of stationary probabilities of states of the system of mass servicing with unreliable equipment, servicing and re-adjustment at the beginning of the production cycle. The article describes functioning both of the main and auxiliary material flow of the logistic system. It is supposed that the incoming flow for processing or orders has a Poisson distribution and the time of breakage of equipment, the time of re-adjustment and the time of servicing have indicative laws of distribution. Equipment is serviced by two crews: maintenance and service. The maintenance crew repairs broken equipment and the orders on the device are not lost but are serviced during the time left. The second crew deals only with servicing works. The article considers one of the possible schemes when the equipment required for completion of the production cycle is sent for servicing. There are no restrictions with respect to the length of the queue. The article finds main characteristics of the above described system, namely: probability that the device is not in working condition and is sent for servicing and re-adjustment. The found probabilities of states of the described system could be used for assessment of expediency of the repair outsourcing at industrial enterprises. Article is written in Russian
Polshkov Y. M.
On Forecasting Macro-Economic Indicators with the Help of Finite-Difference Equations and Econometric Methods (p. 95 - 100)
The article considers data on the gross domestic product, consumer expenditures, gross investments and volume of foreign trade for the national economy. It is assumed that time is a discrete variable with one year iteration. The article uses finite-difference equations. It considers models with a high degree of the regulatory function of the state with respect to the consumer market. The econometric component is based on the hypothesis that each of the above said macro-economic indicators for this year depends on the gross domestic product for the previous time periods. Such an assumption gives a possibility to engage the least-squares method for building up linear models of the pair regression. The article obtains the time series model, which allows building point and interval forecasts for the gross domestic product for the next year based on the values of the gross domestic product for the current and previous years. The article draws a conclusion that such forecasts could be considered justified at least in the short-term prospect. From the mathematical point of view the built model is a heterogeneous finite-difference equation of the second order with constant ratios. The article describes specific features of such equations. It illustrates graphically the analytical view of solutions of the finite-difference equation. This gives grounds to differentiate national economies as sustainable growth economies, one-sided, weak or being in the stage of successful re-formation. The article conducts comparison of the listed types with specific economies of modern states. Article is written in Russian
Slushaienko N. V.
Modelling General System Investment Strategy in Major Industrial and Financial Corporations (p. 100 - 104)
The goal of the article is the study of new qualitative approaches to development of investment strategies in major financial and industrial corporations. The article uses the games theory and methods of system analysis for modelling these processes. It considers strategies that would result in the maximal general system effect, which is the main task of the target co-ordination. The main difficulty of modelling the investment activity in major financial and production groups lies in the necessity to take into account interconnection between individual participants of the investment process and co-ordination of their interests and actions. The proposed approaches to analysis and selection of investment projects inside a major financial and industrial group facilitates making a co-ordination decision on distribution of investment resources of the general system fund and funds of individual system subdivisions. In the result of the study the article offers to use specific models of co-ordination of investment activity. These models would allow taking into consideration interaction of elements and co-ordination of interests and impact of each decision made on the state of the system. The article identifies a number of comparison criteria in the process of modelling the tasks of assessment and selection of investment projects in major financial and industrial groups. It calculates global priorities of all projects and identifies best alternatives. The proposed models could be used for assessment of interaction of elements when developing the general system investment strategy. The prospect of further studies could be identification of next approaches of optimisation of selection of the investment programme in major financial and industrial corporations. Article is written in Ukrainian
Chernyshov S. I.
Harrod Model and Modelling of Socio-Economic Processes (p. 105 - 113)
Harrod method in the differential form has a discrete character and the resulting growth of economy exponentially is insubstantial. The mistake is based on adjunction of the capital and annual income through a constant ratio. This becomes clear from the positions of study of dimensionality of the used values, which is knowingly avoided in the mathematical economy. Representation of the capital through intensity of income in categories of continuous analysis is quite naturally realised with the help of the Steklov function. It forms a correct Harrod method (CHM), which, unlike the above mentioned exponent, results in inevitability of economic crises, however, the moments of their appearance are calculable. The Steklov function allows generalisation by means of the component designed for monitoring of the economic situation with the aim to specify model parameters. Refraction of CHM to the balance of participants of the economic system in cost interpretation is quite fruitful. The obtained model is a system of differential equations of the first order with variable ratios. Due to this the article formulates general principles of modelling of socio-economic processes. Article is written in Russian
Bobkova A. Y.
Diagnostics of Convergent-Divergent Processes in the Regional Fiscal Policy (p. 113 - 119)
The article conducts analysis of irregularity of distribution of tax resources among towns and districts of the Kharkiv oblast with respect to the income and expenditure sides of the budget on the basis of the convergence theory. Indicators of ?-convergence and models of ?-convergence are used as the instruments of the study and theoretical substantiation of the given indicators are considered in detail. The proposed instruments is approved on the basis of indicators of the tax load on hired employees and also expenditures of local budgets per capita in districts and towns of the Kharkiv oblast. The article reveals the divergent tendency in the Kharkiv oblast, characterised with availability of significant irregularity in development of territories by the tax load indicator, while per capita expenditures of the budgets are close in values, which characterises existence of convergent tendencies in the process of development of territories. Article is written in Russian
BUSINESS INFORM №12-2013
Solntsev S. O., Ovchynnikova A. V.
Model of Assessment of Marketing Risks in Investment Projects (p. 105 - 110)
The goal of the article is the study of theoretical and methodical grounds of assessing marketing risks when realising investment projects for increase of efficiency of making managerial decisions and minimisation of the level of marketing risks. In the result of the study the article offers to allocate the stage of assessment in the process of management, consisting of detection, analysis and assessment of marketing risks. Structurisation of methods of assessment of marketing risks allowed supplementing the existing groups of methods of assessment of risks using methods of marketing studies of consumer behaviour and develop a model of stage-by-stage complex assessment of marketing risks in investment projects, which is based on the study of the process of market exchange of enterprises and modelling behaviour of consumers under market conditions. The prospect of further studies is identification of sources and specific features of assessing marketing risks during the further stages of realisation of an investment project and when a commodity enters the market. Article is written in English
Kuznichenko V. M.
Continuous Model of Financial Interaction of Enterprises when Carrying out an Investment Project (p. 110 - 114)
The article considers a probabilistic approach to the model of the commodity-money time distribution of the budget of an investment project between enterprises on the basis of Markov chains (discrete model) and on the basis of the system of linear differential equations (continuous model). In order to solve the discrete model, the z-transform method is used, and for solution of the continuous model – the Laplace transform is used. The stochastic matrix of Markov chains completely identifies the discrete model of distribution of the budget of an investment project between enterprises, and the differential matrix – the continuous model of this distribution. The use of z-transform and Laplace transform allows finding a solution of tasks in the analytical form. The obtained expressions simplify analysis and calculation of states of the system compared to other methods. The article establishes interconnection between the discrete and continuous models, in other words, solutions of these tasks are similar if t = n. Article is written in Russian
Poliakova O. Y., Bulkin S. M.
Formation of the Competitive Strategy of a Commercial Bank on the Basis of the Methodology of the Game Theory (p. 115 - 119)
The study is devoted to formation of the competitive strategy of a commercial bank on the basis of use of the methodology of the game theory. Competitive strategy is formed under conditions of a game, which has the studied bank, direct competitors and external environment. The game is not co-operative and has no constant amount. Efficiency of the bank strategy is determined on the basis of three indicators: interest income, share in loans of physical persons and share in loans of legal entities. Direct competitors that form an individual player were allocated with the help of the cluster analysis. The game was realised with the help of an imitation model, which allows realisation of various competitive strategies. The imitation model consists of three blocks, which model the bank behaviour, competitors and environment. The optimal competitive strategy was chosen on the basis of the principle of the guaranteed result. In the result of modelling the article determines an optimal strategy, which allows increase of both the interest rate and share in loans and deposits among competitors. Article is written in Russian
Yemets M. S.
Building an Economic and Mathematical Model of Influence of Integration Processes Upon Development of Tourism in Ukraine (p. 119 - 123)
Today Ukraine actively searches for its own way in the world integration processes, demonstrates a multi-vector foreign economic policy and carries out movement in the direction of integration with the EU and CIS countries. Taking into account establishment of international tourist relations, the main task of Ukraine is getting a bigger share of the world tourist arrivals. That is why, in order to study influence of integration processes upon development of tourism in the country, the author offers the following model: building regression equations of the share of export of tourist services of Ukraine for CIS and EU countries with the aim of the further comparative analysis. The conducted analysis allows making a conclusion that integration factors influence development of international tourism, however it is proved that this influence is not unequivocal and in some cases even inconsistent. Identification of directions of such an inter-dependency allows building an efficient tourist policy by means of selection of adaptive directions of integration. Article is written in Ukrainian
Pospelova L. Y.
Assessment of the Degree of Consistency of the System of Fuzzy Rules (p. 124 - 129)
The article analyses recent achievements and publications and shows that difficulties of explaining the nature of fuzziness and equivocation arise in socio-economic models that use the traditional paradigm of classical rationalism (computational, agent and econometric models). The accumulated collective experience of development of optimal models confirms prospectiveness of application of the fuzzy set approach in modelling the society. The article justifies the necessity of study of the nature of inconsistency in fuzzy knowledge bases both on the generalised ontology level and on pragmatic functional level of the logical inference. The article offers the method of search for logical and conceptual contradictions in the form of a combination of the abduction and modus ponens. It discusses the key issue of the proposed method: what properties should have the membership function of the secondary fuzzy set, which describes in fuzzy inference models such a resulting state of the object of management, which combines empirically incompatible properties with high probability. The degree of membership of the object of management in several incompatible classes with respect to the fuzzy output variable is the degree of fuzziness of the “Intersection of all results of the fuzzy inference of the set, applied at some input of rules, is an empty set” statement. The article describes an algorithm of assessment of the degree of consistency. It provides an example of the step-by-step detection of contradictions in statistical fuzzy knowledge bases at the pragmatic functional level of the logical output. The obtained results of testing in the form of sets of incompatible facts, output chains, sets of non-crossing intervals and computed degrees of inconsistency allow experts timely elimination of inadmissible contradictions and, at the same time, increase of quality of recommendations and assessment of fuzzy expert systems. Article is written in Russian
BUSINESS INFORM №1-2014
Khemelyov O. H.
Evolution Methods of Formation of Neuronet Models of Complex Economic Systems (p. 69 - 73)
The article analyses principles of formation of neuronet models of complex economic systems. It justifies prospectiveness of use of artificial intellect methods when modelling complex economic systems. It shows a possibility of use of evolution methods when forming neuronet models of complex economic systems for ensuring invariance of their generalising properties. It offers an algorithm with a genome from operons of fixed length. It considers all operons from the point of view of functional positions. It notes a specific feature of the algorithm, which allows excluding anthropogenic factors when selecting the neuronet models architecture. It proves adequacy of the formed neuronet models of complex economic systems. Article is written in Russian
Hlіnska O. M., Parkhomenko S. O., Khmelyova A. V.
Neuronet Modelling of the Processes of Budgeting and Use of Labour Resources at Coal Mining Enterprises (p. 73 - 77)
The article considers issues of efficient budgeting and use of labour resources at coal mining enterprises. It proves expediency of use of modern neuronet, namely, multilayer perceptron, for solution of tasks of modelling the process of budgeting and use of labour resources at coal mining enterprises. It shows that Statistika is the best software package for creation of neuronets of the multilayer perceptron architecture. On the basis of analysis and comparative characteristic the article selects the topology and builds a neuronet model of budgeting and use of labour resources at coal mining enterprises. Article is written in Ukrainian
Druzhinina V. V.
Prospective Analysis of the Current Demand of the Local Labour Market (p. 77 - 82)
The goal of the article lies in forecasting tendencies of the current demand of the local labour market on the basis of the method of statistical equations of dependencies and correlation and regression analysis for prolongation of relevant processes at the meso-level. The article considers a forecast model for co-ordination of dynamics of vacancies depending on socio-economic indicators of city development, which is formed on the basis of the method of statistical equations. This method requires identification of parameters of equations of single-factor dependencies and ratios of communication stability. On the basis of calculated values of these parameters and on the basis of economic and mathematical modelling of certain macro-economic indicators, the article builds equations of multiple regression, use of which would allow forecasting the current demand in the local labour market in the middle-term perspective. The prospect of further studies is forecasting the level of current balance of the local labour market, using the provided methods for forecasting the current supply. Article is written in Ukrainian
Zhuk M. O., Zdrok V. V.
Modelling Dynamics of Main Indicators of Economic Activity of Households of Ukraine (p. 82 - 91)
The goal of the article is the study of the structure of the system of economic activity of households in Ukraine and dynamics of interconnections between the main indicators of its functioning. In order to study dynamics of main indicators of the system of economic activity of households, the article uses tools of econometric vector-autoregression modelling (VAR models). Based on the existing statistical data and a developed VAR model, the article studies individual and aggregate influence of lag values of indicators upon their current values, system reaction on main indicators impulses, analyses dynamics of change of explanation of dispersion of some indicators with others, and conducts two types of forecasts that reflect a general tendency of development of economic activity of households in Ukraine. High accuracy of forecasts obtained with the help of the proposed econometric model testifies to a possibility of its practical application for assessment of the state of main indicators of economic activity of households of Ukraine. The article applies for the first time the tools of VAR modelling for the study of economic activity of households in Ukraine, which expands possibilities of use of mathematical and statistical methods and models in this field of economy. Article is written in Ukrainian
Hlotov Y. O., Cherevatenko V. A.
Identification of Factors of Influence upon the Cost of Fixed Coupon Securities (p. 92 - 97)
The article studies fixed coupon securities (bonds). It provides a calculation of the cash flow, generated by fixed coupon securities, with enclosed discounted face value of securities. It analyses time indicator – average weighted duration of payments, which characterises sensitivity of the price of securities to changes of interest rates in the market. It proves availability of two groups of interconnections between the cost of a bond, coupon rate, market rate (rate of return) and term of its payment. The first group of interconnections reflects interconnections between the cost of a bond, coupon rate and market rate (rate of return). The second group characterises connection between the bond cost and term of its payment. The authors study the average weighted duration of payments. It plays an important role in analysis of long-term securities with fixed income. To simplify calculations it was accepted that the coupon payment is done once a year. The article offers a formula for identifying inaccuracy of the bond price depending on the expected change of profitability on payment. Analysing duration properties the article identifies shortcomings inherent in this indicator. Taking into account the average weighted duration of payments the article recommends a formula, as more efficient, for identification of the future bond price depending on change of profitability. The conducted studies are a theoretical ground for development of models of management of fixed income securities portfolios. The obtained scientific results could be used in the educational process both in colleges and specialised trainings of securities specialists. The scientific results could be used for developing information technologies when identifying cost of securities (fixed coupon bonds). Article is written in Ukrainian
Ishchenko M. I.
Development of Economic and Mathematical Models of Optimisation of Expenditures at ore Mining and Processing Enterprises (p. 98 - 102)
The goal of the article is development of methodical approaches to identification of the optimal structure of material and labour resources, which ensure the minimum cost value at ore mining and processing enterprises The article conducts analysis of modern studies on issues of management of enterprise expenditures. It shows that one of the most popular methods of expenditure forecasting is economic and mathematical modelling. It proves that when developing economic and mathematical dependencies for forecasting cost value of products it is expedient to develop individual models for each individual enterprise, since this approach helps to take into account unique natural and technological conditions of functioning of ore mining and processing enterprises. The article develops a model of dependence of cost value of products on the level of use of main types of resources at one ore mining and processing enterprise in Kryvyi Rih. On the basis of the developed model the article identifies optimal volumes of use of material and labour resources for a forecasted period. The article shows that the cost value of products, with optimal values of main types of resources, is lower than the forecasted value, obtained through the trend equation. The offered approaches could be used when preparing budgets of expenditures of enterprises for future periods. Article is written in Ukrainian
Ivanov V. M.
Model of Assessment of Operational Risk Linked with a Working Day of Bank Personnel (p. 102 - 108)
The article conducts analysis of works of both domestic and foreign scientists, connected with development of risk models in bank activity. It reveals specific features and formulates urgency of development of a model and method of assessment of the operational risk with consideration of fuzzy values. Depending on the nature of the field of identification of fuzzy variables, the article underlines linguistic variables, for which the top and bottom boundaries are determined. The article offers a structural model of assessment of the operational risk, based on the system of fuzzy conclusion, where each term set confronts with a relevant linguistic variable. The process of transformation of qualitative assessments into fuzzy values lies in reflection of the elements of the initial term set in the form of building the belonging functions. The article formulates bases of rules of the fuzzy conclusion system. Results of modelling the assessment of the operational risk are represented in the form of the procedure of fuzzy conclusion and surface with consideration of input linguistic variables. Article is written in Russian
Ilchenko K. O.
Modelling Strategy of Loan and Deposit Activity of a Commercial Bank (p. 109 - 113)
The article considers development of strategy of loan-deposit strategy of a bank, which could be presented by relevant rates. Bank activity is described with goodwill and liquidity indicators that characterise tangible and intangible resources of an institution. Goodwill indicator is calculated on the basis of the previous period data. Liquidity is a relation of assets to liabilities at a certain moment of time. On the basis of these indicators the article develops a mathematical model, which includes an assumption about dependence of the rate of growth of deposits on liquidity and goodwill functions. There is a task of two criteria optimisation, the solution of which is a set of rates. The article considers cases when a bank does not change rates during a set period of time and when a bank changes them frequently under condition that rates are independent from each other. If we make an assumption that each change of rates is accompanied with costs, which are not reflected in the model, changing rates is inexpedient. The article offers to use partially constant average values of rates. The article considers the use of the ideal point for selection of one value out of the set of Pareto efficient solutions. Using presentation of the task of one criterion optimisation with respect to the liquidity ratio, the article shows that the use of the goodwill indicator influences the rate of growth of deposits. This task is a special case of the previous one, which means that this solution is within the set of the presented Pareto efficient point. But in the event of non-strict correspondence with the extreme value of the liquidity ratio, the solution worsens. The necessity of use of both criteria is important and improves the south for solution. Article is written in Ukrainian
Nykytenko O. K.
Development of a Model of Knowledge Mining for Forecasting Financial Markets with Allocation of Standard Tendencies from the Time Series (p. 114 - 117)
The article develops a model of knowledge mining for forecasting financial markets with allocation of standard tendencies from the time series. The model is considered from the point of view of application of the Knowledge Mining technology. The article provides solution of the direct and inverse problems of adequacy of processing economic information within the framework of acquisition of the formal feature of metricity in the process of the model application. The article shows that due to optimisation the models on the educational sampling of knowledge acquire the notional component, that is the semantic feature. The article offers ways of assessing characteristics of consistency and fullness for ensuring knowledge with a formal feature of activity. The feature of knowledge coherence is included into the fullness characteristic. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №2-2014
Ivanov R. V.
On Modelling Economic Behaviour of Households as an Open Socio-economic System (p. 111 - 115)
The article analyses the modern state of studies of economic behaviour of households in the world and Ukraine. It justifies the use of means and methods of mathematic modelling for the study of economic behaviour of these economic agents, capable of self-development and self-organisation in the process of endogenous or exogenous interaction. The article offers to use such a mathematical mechanism as the theory of ordinary differential equations as the most convenient and efficient instrument of study of behavioural dynamics not only at the stage of model construction, but also at the stage of conducting computational experiments. The article starts a cycle of the author’s works on issues of mathematical modelling economic behaviour of households not only as separate economic agents, but also as stable or situational conglomerations. One of the directions of further studies is the search for possibilities of building up fundamental solutions of differential equations in partial derivatives, which describe different aspects of economic behaviour of households. Article is written in Ukrainian
Kravets T. V., Berezniuk O. V.
Effects of Synchronisation of Dynamics of Stock Indices and Currency Rates during Multifactor Analysis with the Use of Wavelet Technologies (p. 116 - 121)
The article conducts analysis of behaviour of stock indices and currency rates before and after the crisis phenomena with the aim of detection of key features of the pre-crisis state, localisation and description of crisis effects by time and scale using methods of multifractal analysis and wavelet transformation. The article checks the method of allocation of intervals of self-similar behaviour of financial series in practice. For Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices the article detects in the time interval of 2001 – 2013 fractality spans and also moments of time when behaviour of series was determined with the chaotic component. The article offers the measure of synchronous behaviour of stock indices and currency rates, value of which allows assessment of the degree of propagation of crisis phenomena and forecasting them. This measure is calculated for EUR/GBP, EUR/USD, FTSE 100, S&P 500, Dow Jones, DAX and CAC 40 series. The article observes a close connection between values of the introduced measure and volume of crisis phenomena, which took place in relevant period of time. It gives a characteristics of main economic crises for the period 2001 – 2003 with the aim of comparison of real events and specific features of dynamics of the measure of synchronisation as a precursor of crisis phenomena. Article is written in Ukrainian
Krymska L. O., Popova M. V.
Modelling Economic Potential of the Region (Zaporizhia Oblast Example) (p. 122 - 127)
The article shows methodological grounds of construction of the model of economic potential of the region and selects indicators of main structure forming elements of economic potential on the basis of the resource approach to its determination, which could be used for construction of a mathematical model and also for assessment of economic potential. The article considers methods of construction of a mathematical model of economic potential of the region on the basis of the correlation and regression analysis and method of construction of neural networks. It develops a model of economic potential of the Zaporizhia oblast on the basis of construction of a neural network with the use of the Deductor Studio Academic software. The considered methods of construction of the model of economic potential could be used for construction of models of potential of other oblasts. Such models could be used for assessment of influence of each of indicators of structure forming components of economic potential upon the value of the gross regional product, short-term and medium-term forecasting of development of the region, development of programmes of regional development by local bodies of authority and identification of maximally possible gross regional product under condition of use of the whole available volume of resources. Article is written in Ukrainian
Makaliuk I. V.
Economic and Mathematical Modelling of Optimisation of Transaction Expenses of Engineering Enterprises (p. 127 - 131)
The article identifies stages of the process of optimisation of transaction expenses. It develops an economic and mathematical model of optimisation of transaction expenses of engineering enterprises by the criterion of maximisation of income from realisation of products and system of restrictions, which envisages exceeding income growth rate over the expenses growth rate. The article offers to use types of expenses by accounting accounts as indicators of transaction expenses. In the result of the study it is established that optimisation of transaction expenses envisages such a composition and structure of expenses, which would ensure achievement of the maximal financial result. Besides, the growth of the general volume of transaction expenses should be accompanied with reduction of its volume by a unit of product. Theoretical and practical significance of the obtained results lies in the fact that they could be used when conducting further scientific developments in this direction and also in the process of practical activity of enterprises. Application of the proposed economic and mathematical model of optimisation of transaction expenses would allow identification of the force and direction of influence of various types of transaction expenses upon income of a specific enterprise. Revelation of expenses, execution of which facilitates accumulation of volumes of realisation, and expenses, which hinder the process, would allow identification of the direction of regulation with the purpose of improvement of financial results of production and economic activity. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №3-2014
Burkina N. V., Naumova M. A.
Application of Distribution-free Methods of Study for Identifying the Degree of Reliability of Ukrainian Banks (p. 104 - 109)
Bank ratings are integral elements of information infrastructure that ensure sound development of the banking business. One of the key issues that the clients of banking structures are worried about is the issue of identification of the degree of reliability and trust to the bank. As of now there are no common generally accepted methods of bank rating and the issue of bank reliability is rather problematic. The article considers a modern DEA method of economic and mathematical analysis which is a popular instrument of assessment of quality of services of different subjects and which became very popular in foreign econometric studies. The article demonstrates application of the data encapsulation method (data envelopment analysis, DEA) for obtaining new methods of development of bank ratings and marks out incoming and outgoing indicators for building a DEA model as applied to the Ukrainian banking system. The authors also discuss some methodical problems that might appear when applying component indicators for ranging the subjects and offer methods of their elimination. Article is written in Russian
Iefimova G. V.
Optimisation Modelling of Efficiency of Enterprise Restructuring (p. 109 - 113)
The article considers issues of optimisation of the use of resources directed at restructuring of a shipbuilding enterprise, which is the main prerequisite of its efficiency. Restructuring is considered as a process of complex and interconnected change in the structure of assets, liabilities, enterprise functions, initiated by dynamic environment, which is based on the strategic concept of its development and directed at increase of efficiency of its activity, which is expressed in the growth of cost. The task of making a decision to restructure a shipbuilding enterprise and selection of a specific restructuring project refers to optimisation tasks of prospective planning. Enterprise resources that are allocated for restructuring serve as constraints of the mathematical model. Main criteria of optimisation are maximisation of pure discounted income or minimisation of expenditures on restructuring measures. The formed optimisation model is designed for assessment of volumes of attraction of own and borrowed funds for restructuring. Imitation model ensures development of cash flows. The task solution is achieved on the basis of the complex of interrelated optimisation and imitation models and procedures on formation, selection and co-ordination of managerial decisions. Article is written in Ukrainian
Oliskevych M. O.
Specific Features of Econometric Consumption Models in Ukraine under Conditions of Instability and Structural Changes (p. 113 - 121)
The article analyses dynamic properties of developed econometric consumption models, which are an important component of the study of specific features of the national economy development under conditions of instability and structural changes. The article conducts an empirical analysis of time dynamics of effects of influence upon consumption expenditures of households, change of permanent and temporary income, inflation rate, sensitivity to deviations from long-term tendencies and other factors. Econometric modelling, theoretical foundation of which is the permanent income hypothesis, is based on the use of the adaptive expectations model, partial adjustment model, seasonal differences and auto-regression model with distributed lags. Co-ordination of the results of all models shows that negative processes in the country economy, which developed in the result of the crisis that started in 2008, significantly worsened economic state of domestic consumers and resulted in a situation when practically all households in Ukraine today, having exhausted their resources and experiencing liquidity constraints, have no possibility to smooth their consumption in time and form their consumption expenditures on the basis of the current income. Article is written in Ukrainian
Sherstennikov Y. V.
Modelling Dynamics of Main Economic Indicators of an Enterprise (p. 122 - 130)
The article develops an economic and mathematical model of dynamics of main economic indicators of an enterprise, reflected in six book-keeping accounts with consideration of logistics and interrelation with current market characteristics and needs of products consumers. It applies this model for a quantitative study of influence of an advertising campaign and seasonality upon quantitative indicators of economic activity of the enterprise. The enterprise operation programme includes internal financial and economic procedures, which ensure the production process, and also connection with suppliers and buyers (customers). When setting different initial conditions, it is possible to trace transitional processes and enterprise entering (under favourable conditions) the stationary mode of operation or its laying-off (in case of insufficiency of circulating funds). The developed model contains many parameters, which allow not only study of dependence of enterprise operation on alteration of one of them but also optimisation of economic conditions of functioning. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №4-2014
Alekseyev V. I.
Mathematical Justification of the Indicator of Measure of Concentration of Member Influence for Analysing Vulnerability of the Credit Union (p. 77 - 81)
The article studies the problem of identification of real threats from excessive concentration of influence upon the credit union from its individual members due to their concentration of significant amounts of liabilities to the credit union and / or union liabilities to them. The article considers typical categories of credit unions members that exert actual influence upon unions activity, analyses nature and measures of influence upon the credit union by representatives of such categories of members, and justifies importance of the analysis of such an influence from the point of view of vulnerability of the credit union to possible actions of such categories of members harmful to interests of the credit union. The article offers mathematical justification of the measure of concentration of influence, determines the methods of calculation of this indicator and outlines a probable and acceptable sphere of its application. Article is written in Ukrainian
Berezhniuk I. H., Dzhumurat O. V.
Modelling Customs Control Selectivity Processes with Consideration of Main Risk Parameters of Movement of Goods Across the Customs Border (p. 81 - 86)
The article analyses main tendencies of development of customs business in the context of simplification of customs formalities and maximum allowable level of ensuring security of the national economy. The main task of the study is development recommendations on modelling customs control selectivity processes with consideration of main risk parameters of movement of goods across the customs border. The article identifies main goals of use of the proposed model. It develops main requirements to the result of the customs control selectivity model with consideration of main risk parameters of movement of goods across the customs border. It offers requirements to the process of use of the customs control selectivity model. It order to use the model properly the article identifies relevant information support of the modelling process, which takes into account specificity of activity of special software information complexes and existing regulatory and legal provision in the sphere of regulation of the customs control procedures. The article offers specific recommendations on development of the customs control selectivity model with consideration of main risk parameters of movement of goods across the border with the relevant detailed elaboration of stages. Article is written in Ukrainian
Revenko D. S., Lyba V. O., Horiacheva K. I.
Deterministic Simulation of Sustainability of Dynamic Socio-economic Systems (p. 87 - 90)
The article considers approaches to deterministic simulation of sustainability of socio-economic systems. It notes that formalised approaches to modelling and strict mathematical mechanism attracts more and more researchers in the field of economy in the context of application of deterministic methods to analysis of sustainability of socio-economic systems in the context of dynamics of their development. The article analyses difficulties that arise in the process of modelling socio-economic systems, considers main provisions of concepts of functioning of these systems. It defines sustainability of the socio-economic system. It offers a method of analysis of sustainability of the socio-economic system based on analysis of roots of a characteristic equation obtained through linearisation and transition to the normal Cauchy form of the system of non-linear differential equations, which describe dynamics of behaviour of the socio-economic system. Article is written in Russian
Yachmenov Y. F.
Functional Model of a Higher Educational Establishment in IDEF0 (p. 91 - 99)
The article studies issues of theoretical and methodical problems of the college management. It shows that growth of efficiency of management, fast and high-quality solution of a set of managerial tasks and also realisation of managerial measures require availability of real-time information. Authenticity and timeliness of this information depends on its sources, purity and orderliness of information flows. Allocation and orderliness of information flows in a college could be arranged with the use of IDEF technologies. They allow breaking down activity of any subject into processes, sub-processes and actions that provide an opportunity to identify information flows in future and use them in college management. The article identifies that the information and analytical college management system is a complex system that covers all types of college activity, integrates all information flows and creates a common information environment. Article is written in Ukrainian
Isaienko O. O.
Modelling Non-stationary Time Series of Economic Dynamics on the Basis of Fokker – Planck Equations (p. 99 - 105)
The article studies the topical issue of modelling non-stationary time series of economic dynamics. The proposed approach to modelling time series is based on the methodology of multidimensional analysis and continuity equation, which combines the system state variables probability density function with their rates. Equation of point motion in the multi-dimensional phase space of state variables is drawn in an assumption that interaction of two factors – growth and dissipation – lies in the basis of economic system evolution. The article assumes that the rate of growth is a deterministic function, which means availability of cause-effect relation between variables, and the diffusion component of the rate is proportional to the gradient of probability of states in a local point of the phase space. In this case the system state is determined by the Fokker – Plank multidimensional equation. One-dimensional time series is considered together with series of its derivatives as a multidimensional non-stationary process, which is modelled by the two-dimensional Fokker – Planck equation by coordinates and increments. Model equations are based on an assumption about linearity of series of finite differences and are co-ordinated with the results of empirical phase analysis. The article builds an adaptive model with the non-stationary time series memory. The adaptation mechanism is realised through the system of equations of evolution of selected numerical characteristics of the series and its differences. Time series memory is taken into account through the system of equations of evolution of the coordinate moment functions. Forecast of the series is carried out through numeric integration of the obtained evolution and Fokker – Planck equations. Results of modelling show practical suitability of the models for forecasting price indicators of the financial market for a middle-term period. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №5-2014
Sokolovska Z. M., Yatsenko N. V.
System-dynamic Models in Forecasting Development of Complex Economic Systems (p. 121 - 132)
The goal of the article lies in consideration and justification of possibilities of use of the system-dynamic approach in forecasting development of a complex economic system using example of dynamics of a sea port. Generalising scientific works of many scientists, the article holds that the necessary condition of development of minimalistic models, adequate to real systems and set tasks, is a proper selection of methodology of modelling, relevant software and plans of conduct of simulation experiments. The article justifies expediency of use of the system-dynamic methodology depending on the level of abstraction and degree of aggregation of the studied processes. The article offers a set of models directed at forecasting dynamics of the operation activity of a port and connected financial flows for various time prospective. The article shows a general structure and fragments of flow charts of a model of long-term forecasting the port development dynamics. Operation of the model is presented by results of simulation experiments using example of the “Sea Trade Port Ust-Dunaysk” State Enterprise. Simulation experiments are realised on the Ithink software platform and facilitate identification of general tendencies of object functioning and detection of the most significant weak points. Article is written in Ukrainian
Novakivskii I. I., Bespaliuk H. M., Lushchak N. S.
Optimisation Model of Distribution of Investments between Business Directions of a Diversified Enterprise (p. 133 - 139)
The article is devoted to problems of distribution of investments between business directions of an enterprise, namely – a search for their optimal correlation with the aim of maximisation of the expected profit or minimisation of risk. The goal of the article is adaptation of instruments of the theory of portfolio investments, in particular, methods proposed by H. Markowitz and W. Sharpe, to the process of building an optimal business portfolio of an industrial enterprise. In the result of the study the article offers methods of assessment based on establishment of a regression dependence between results – profit and factors – investments and also between their changes. The proposed methods give a possibility to determine change of values of profitability of a business portfolio from change of volumes of investing when there is no mathematical dependence between them, it facilitates a better identification of competitive advantages of a business portfolio and, as a result, increase of its stable predictable development. The article builds a mathematical model of optimisation of distribution of investments by business directions, which takes into account the market situation and also distribution of investments between strategic business units during previous periods. Based on analysis of mathematical forecast models the article formulates an optimal strategy of identification of the business portfolio structure. Article is written in Ukrainian
Rudianova T. M., Rubtsova O. O.
Managing Banking Institution Resources through Optimisation of the Balance Structure (p. 140 - 145)
Requirements to the banking system, which should facilitate sustainable economic growth and increase of competitiveness of the economic complex, become higher under the modern conditions. Improvement of organisation of formation of bank resources acquire important role since the balanced resource base is a pre-requisite of efficient bank functioning and maintenance of a sufficient level of its liquidity. The article calculates financial ratios that are used for analysis of liquidity, sustainability and business activity of a commercial bank. Using methods of mathematical programming, in particular, simplex method, the article forms an optimal plan of the structure of balance of a commercial bank, which would ensure maximum profitability under conditions of fulfilment of economic norms and recommended financial ratios. Article is written in Ukrainian
Vilhutska R. B.
Modelling Organisational Structures of Company Management (p. 145 - 150)
The goal of the article is to show the essence of theoretical and methodical-applied provisions on modelling organisational structures of enterprise management. The article develops a method of morphological analysis of organisational structures of enterprise management based on a decomposition of topological and metric spaces of organisational management structures and also on building models of morphological synthesis. It further develops the “organisational structure of enterprise management” notion through allocation and synthesis of its essential features and principles of formation and use of the General Standard of Project Management, which served as a basis for their scientifically justified topologisation. Methodological foundation of the conducted study are provisions of modern economic concepts, system theory, set theory, management and informatisation. The article uses methods of morphological analysis, synthesis, generalisation, etc. Scientific novelty of the study lies in improvement of existing and development of new theoretical and methodical-applied provisions on modelling organisational structures of enterprise management. The proposed methodical provisions on General Standard of Project Management modelling would provide adequacy of establishment of links between structural subdivisions of an enterprise and their individual elements and would lighten the process of formation of the logistics system at an enterprise. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №6-2014
Revenko D. S., Lyba V. O., Temnikova A. V.
Parametric Stability Control of Socio-economic Systems (p. 98 - 102)
This paper proposes a method of parametric dynamic stability control of socio-economic systems. It was noted that the effective functioning of the socio-economic systems depends on their sustainable development. The problems of the development of deterministic modeling approaches which allow to analyze the stability of the dynamics of the socio-economic system and to make management decisions on the parametric resource management system for the conservation and sustainable development of this system. The broad and generalized notion of stability of the socio-economic system was given. A detailed description of the proposed method, which consists of eleven stages, the most important of which are: selection of key indicators of sustainable development system, a study of its trends, determine the coordinates of the indicator and the permissible limits of change in the future, the expansion indicator on the parameters that can be controlled, and their analysis on the basis of chain substitutions, direct control parameters of the system and evaluate the effectiveness of managerial influence. The proposed method was tested using data on the activities of construction companies, as well as on the basis of data on the development of industrial production in Ukraine. Article is written in Ukrainian
Pidkhomnyi O. M.
Modeling the Impact of Corruption on the Dynamics of Economic Indicators (p. 103 - 111)
This article examines the phenomenon of corruption in the context of relationships with a number of important economic indicators. The problems of evaluation methodology and features of volumes and directions of development of corruption at the country level were shown. In addition to the subjective measurement methods the model of corruption interrelations was proposed, unemployment, competence, productivity. It was shown that competence can be characterized as a constructive activity of society members and also as distribution activities of unproductive individuals. It was found that a high proportion of incompetent corrupt officials adversely affect the level of unemployment, and their ability to allocate goods illegally reduces the level of motivation for productive work. With the cooperation of experts in economics, sociology, and criminology to form respective expert assessments, the model discussed in the article, can help analyze the impact of corruption on the dynamics of important economic indicators more precisely. Article is written in English
Sierikov A. V., Lahno I. G.
Investigation of the Conditions to Ensure the Competitiveness of an Economic Entity (p. 112 - 117)
The aim of the article is to find conditions to ensure the competitiveness of an economic entity by creating their core competencies. To do this, for the first time the phenomenological model of "activity/competence" was suggested as a system of nonlinear differential equations, with further analysis from the standpoint of the general theory of synergistic control of complex systems. As a result it was proved that because of such control, a prerequisite for which is the application of well-known concept of value creation with consumers in the "controlled activity/competence" self-organization is possible. This is a very important result for both the theory and practice of developing competencies process control, including key ones and at the business entity that will provide its long-term competitiveness. Article is written in Ukrainian
Poluektova N. R.
Risks of Implementation of ERP-systems Projects: Problems and Solutions (p. 118 - 124)
The purpose of this paper is to study the problems that accompany projects of implementation of ERP type corporate information systems, to research approaches which are used to identify and assess risks and develop a new integrated approach that would solve the problem of inefficiency of such projects. The study identified the main problems on the one hand, with the lack of statistical data for the use of traditional approaches to risk assessment, and on the other – with the lack of a systematic approach to risk assessment projects, when implementing ERP-systems. An algorithm to identify a comprehensive risk assessment and implementation of complex projects, management information systems, based on the strategic goals of the system implementation was suggested, which allows you to select more appropriate key indicators of success, and to overcome the problem of lack of data and consideration of high uncertainty – using methods of the theory of fuzzy sets. Article is written in Russian
Lytvynov O. I.
Methodology of Modeling a Strategic Development Level of a Commercial Enterprise (p. 125 - 134)
This paper proposes a tool for economic and mathematical modeling to determine the optimal solution with respect to the level of strategic development of commercial enterprises according to selected criteria, which, in turn, is best for the effective functioning of the enterprises in question. Based on the use of mathematical modeling (theory of games) and linear programming tasks we set the probability of use of means of strategic change of a trade enterprise and situational signs of strategic development (dynamics, pace, character, direction, quality, level of uncertainty and aggregate additional conditions for future strategic changes in the company given the achieved level of efficiency of functioning). Based on the original payoff matrix the criteria for decision making under uncertainty and the optimal level of strategic decisions regarding the development of commercial enterprises were calculated. Article is written in Ukrainian
Voronin A. V., Gunko O. V.
Dynamics of Market Conditions with Continuous Delays in the (p. 135 - 139)
In this paper we suggest a modification of the dynamic model of the interaction of market prices and volume of the goods in continuous time. Unlike classical postulates of Walras, Marshall and Samuelson the lag factor is formulated by means of integral relations on both the demand and the supply side. The different types of so-called "dynamic memory" integral components in the original mathematical model were considered, which produce a variety of effects accounting aftereffect. Particular attention is paid to the synthesis of a mathematical model of the entity under consideration as a second order differential equation driven to the form of the confluent hypergeometric differential equation. The analysis of behavioral properties of the investigated mathematical model was conducted with relevant graphic illustrations. Article is written in Russian
Chmil H. L., Goroshanskaya E. A.
Factor Analysis of the Company's Capital Turnover (p. 140 - 144)
The purpose of this paper is to develop models of deterministic factor analysis of capital turnover of the enterprise. The paper substantiates the need for factor analysis of capital turnover as an important component of his method. The attention is focused on the study of micro-level factors, which are a collection of entities and forces under the direct supervision of the owners, managers and personnel. The main stages of the factor analysis were defined. The contemporary approaches to building multi depending capital turnover of the enterprise were analyzed. The inappropriateness to apply some contained in the economic literature factor analysis models of capital turnover ratio. The models of deterministic factor analysis of capital turnover were suggested, which assess the influence of factors at different levels and take into account the availability and efficient use of resources of the enterprise. The reserves to accelerate capital turnover of the investigated enterprise were identified. Article is written in Ukrainian
Sendzyuk M. A., Naumenko I. V.
Methods of Selecting Key Indicators to Assess the Effectiveness of the Company (p. 145 - 152)
The purpose of the article is to research the five stages of economic activities to further define the methods and models, based on which the implementation of the BSI at railway transport enterprises (development of the business situation, the choice of priorities, cost justification, tracking the likely benefits, evaluation of results) will be carried out. On the basis of factor analysis the number of factors that influence the activity of the enterprise will be reduced, as well as models describing the relationship between the prospects of the company (finance, internal processes, external processes) will be presented, with the main factors determining the amount of influence and evolution of the main indicators, whose effect is most significant for the final business objectives – increasing sales volumes. Comparative analysis of the results (factors) will provide an opportunity to identify the progressive tendencies of production efficiency and financial resources will determine the magnitude of the simulated pure index ( i.e., only through the allocation of principal component analysis) and identify ways to improve the performance of the company with increased sales. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №7-2014
Tkachenko S. A.
Apodictic Targeted Reporting of the Subsystem Operation for Analytical Processing of Technical and Economic Information in terms of Invariant Behavior that Reflects the Purpose of the Management Subsystem (p. 109 - 113)
The purpose of the article is to define the subsystem operation purpose of analytical processing of technical and economic information in the functional development of the control systems of special purpose industrial enterprises and scientific-production associations. Analyzing, systematizing and summarizing the literature and scientific work of many scientists and economists regarding the analytical processing of technical and economic information, it was found that the requirements of this condition are of great importance from the standpoint of a systematic approach, but they are not adequately addressed and little studied. As a result of scientific and practical studies it was convincingly shown that purposeful representation allows us to consider the operation of the subsystem analytical processing of technical and economic information in terms of invariant behavior that reflects the purpose of the management subsystem. Is determined that the consideration of the objectives reveals optimal conditions for the subsystem analytical processing of technical and economic information, which is not always in real conditions leading to extreme value of its objective function. It is proved that the establishment of the functional development of control systems of special purpose industrial and scientific-production associations, functional subsystem analytical processing of technical and economic information significantly reduces the complexity of the economic and analytical calculations, while improving the quality features and specifications, management efficiency by achieving full depth lighting, high complexity and efficiency of economic analysis. As for the prospects for further research in this direction, of particular relevance is a different question related to the definition of the limits that establish the scope of the functions performed by the control system. Article is written in Ukrainian
Оdintsov O. M.
Management Diversification of Agricultural Production on the Basis of Economic and Mathematical Modeling (p. 113 - 117)
The paper proposes the use of a multiple regression model as a tool for identifying the factor of influence on the development of agricultural production. The use of a regression model can detect the degree of influence of each type of agricultural production on the formation of gross agricultural production in the region. Matrix calculation used the dynamics of production of major agricultural products in agricultural enterprises of Cherkasy oblast. The revealed intensity of agricultural production on the density of cows on 100 hectares of arable land and the necessary area under fodder crops will melt the basis of the indicative plan for competitive development of agricultural enterprises in the medium term. Prediction based on the economic and mathematical modeling contributes to the high competitiveness and intensity of agricultural production. Article is written in Ukrainian
Khan T. F.
Power Saving Management in Engineering Enterprises in Terms of Lack of their Funding (p. 118 - 122)
The purpose of the article is to investigate the effective management of energy-saving measures in the conditions of lack of funding for enterprises. Application of methodological approaches to economic support for the effective use of energy resources on the basis of economic-mathematical methods allowing to improve planning of energy efficiency programs, which contributes to a set of energy efficiency measures at the plant and leads to the achievement of the greatest economic benefit. Guidelines for the optimization allocation of investment in energy-saving measures can also be proposed for implementation in the enterprises of other branches of engineering after additional changes. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №8-2014
Dilenko V. О., Sabodash Y. L.
Mathematical Modeling of the Integration of the Economies (p. 78 - 82)
This article discusses the mathematical modeling of combining different economies. It is believed that the mechanism of integration of economic systems is formed according to the principle of rational expectations. Optimization models of integration between the economies that were built are based on mathematical models toolkit "input - output". To evaluate the economic impact of the integration process, a set of indicators of economic effects and the efficiency of the united economies was proposed. These figures are determined by the results of solving the corresponding optimization problem. The typical options for integrating economies were highlighted, for which it is appropriate to explore the constructed models. In case of the simplest model of the integration of economic systems its numerical analysis was held, which will demonstrate the formation of economic effect and change of the considered indicators of efficiency of functioning of these systems as a result of their association. Article is written in Russian
Vitlinskyi V. V., Melnyk H. V., Skitsko V. I.
Modeling of the E-marketing Logistics Subsystem Using the Fuzzy Petri Net (p. 82 - 87)
The basis of the e-shop is its interaction, in particular, with the buyers, which may be considered in the framework of e-sales logistics subsystem. In this paper, the authors propose a fuzzy Petri net for modeling of purchase by the buyer within the electronic logistic subsystem of Online Store. A simulation of economic-mathematical model enables to solve a number of problems, in particular: under what conditions the buyer leaves the web-site without having to purchase the goods; pre-books items or postpones payment; carries out the purchase of the goods. Article is written in Ukrainian
Melnyk A. G.
Foresight Model of Innovation and Technological Development in Economic Systems (p. 88 - 94)
The aim of the article is to investigate the methodological approaches to the development of innovation and Foresight of innovation and technological development in economic systems. In this paper, based on the analysis of existing approaches to the prediction of innovative development, as well as the clustering of innovation and scientific and technological activities of economic agents in economic systems, a new methodological approach to the development of Foresight innovation and technological development of economic systems in the dynamics of the processes of reproduction was introduced. The necessity of taking into account, as the objective function of foresight, driving dynamics and transformation of the cost in economic systems was grounded. The methodological approach, according to which the processes of development of economic systems in the dynamics of changes in factor elements characterized by a movement of all factors of reproduction in economic processes to the state of the linear approximation, was reasoned, which is always accompanied by a structural transformation of all the factors of reproduction. The main transformation of the functional content of the theoretical justification of changes in economic systems highlighted the transformation of the determinants of the time, the meaning of which is formulated in the form of a hypothetical prerequisites for building forecast models, namely, the transition from the factor functionality of determinants of time to the functional base models of reproduction, which is manifested in the effects of the acceleration of economic processes and generation of "footholds" for the next technological leap. This provision formed the basis for the calculations for the development of innovation and technological Foresight of the global economic system, presented in the form of a model of structural transformations in the field of generation of innovative technologies. Article is written in English
Bludova T. V., Cherevko D. R.
Simulation of Economic Risk to Assess the level of Economic Security of Regions (p. 94 - 98)
The aim of the article is modeling of socio-economic regional development. The article highlights the main threats to the economic security of the region and presents an algorithm for estimating the level of economic security in the region. The factors of influence on significant differentiation of socio-economic development of the regions of Ukraine were considered. The subsystem external economic indicators of regional development (indicators of regional export and import operations and their thresholds) were considered as a component of economic security in the region. The close relationship between the elements of the foreign trade sector and the country's economy, which generally leads to the need for effective public policies aimed at optimization of all processes and the elimination of disparities between the levels of socio-economic development of regions. Article is written in Ukrainian
Maksiuta V. V.
Forecast Models of Labour Productivity at Trade Enterprises (p. 99 - 105)
The purpose of this paper is to develop two predictive models of productivity on the example of commercial enterprises and organizations Ukoopspilka system. It was proved that the greatest impact on increasing productivity of the 24 factors that were studied has the profitability of fixed assets, i.e. the profitability of enterprises. It was proposed: to use the provided forward-looking model of labor productivity, which will carry out various calculations of the turnover process, answer questions about the profitability of the investigated enterprises, as well as to simulate the future financial situation of commercial enterprises on the basis of policy choices in labor costs and social activities. Article is written in Ukrainian
Hanhal L. S.
Analysis of Resource Provision of Agricultural Enterprises of Different Organizational and Legal Forms and Simulation of the main Factors on the Financial and Economic Performance of the Business Entities (p. 106 - 114)
The article analyzes the level of logistical, labor and land resources of agricultural enterprises of different organizational forms. It was determined which types of agricultural units use the available resources most efficiently. The existing problems of forming a rational structure of the major productive resources of domestic farmers were studied. Using regression analysis it was investigated that the closeness of relationship between the amount of raised production factors and outcome indicators of the company (profit, income, expenditures), which became the basis for the development of economic and mathematical models of these dependencies. Ranging of the investigated factors on the level of importance of their influence was conducted, the percentage change in the effective index as a result of changes in each element of the resource potential was determined. The proposed models are developed for the agricultural enterprises of different organizational forms, which make it possible to effectively optimize the structure of production resources for most types of agricultural companies. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №9-2014
Kuzmenko O. K.
Simulation of the Enterprise Development Using the Catastrophe Theory (p. 114 - 118)
The article is aimed at analysis of the elementary potential functions of the catastrophe theory and is concerned with the formation mechanism of enterprise development model that will appropriately reflect the crisis of socio-economic processes of the system. The study results led to forming of the basic assumptions for using of the catastrophe theory. The main characteristics of disasters were highlighted, other signs of the disaster in the system were reviewed. In the article the main elementary functions of catastrophes are described. A condition for the existence of catastrophe within a socio-economic system was formed. The mechanism for simulation of enterprise development using the theory of catastrophes was formed and has undergone a step-by-step analysis. The model of development of the socio-economic system with use of the elements of catastrophe theory is proposed. The prospect of further research in this direction is the implementation of the formed mechanism and building a model of development of the realistic socio-economic system. Article is written in Russian
Hlotov Y. O., Cherevatenko V. A.
Implementation of Methods of Simulation Modeling of Investment Project Risks by Means of MS Excel (p. 119 - 124)
Investment project development regards an investment project as an object of a financial operation associated with time-phased financial receipts and spendings, that is cash flows, or as a system of organizational and legal as well as settlement and financial documents necessary for carrying out certain activities or those which describe such activities. This work considers a business problem which serves as the basis for development of a simulation procedure. Considering that the original variables included into the problem as well as the results are arbitrary, it is necessary to know the law of distribution of the variables (uniform or normal) before simulation modeling. If the law of distribution of random variables included into the problem is unknown, it is necessary to conduct computational experiments both for the uniform and the normal distribution and compare them afterwards. Based on the comparison, preference is given to the option which yields the largest money receipts with the minimal net present value of the investment project. In the view of the foregoing, the templates (“Simulation”, “Analysis Results”) designed for simulation modeling for the uniform and normal laws of distribution of the key variables of the problem as well as the results (NCF, NPV) were developed in the work. Numerical characteristics were obtained for the key variables and the results, and their probabilistic analysis was carried out. In addition, a graphical comparative analysis of NCF, NPV was conducted for different distributions. A conclusion was made on the basis of the comparative analysis that if a large number of experiments are held, the best option is to select the normal law of distribution of key variables and results. Article is written in Ukrainian
Lysytsia N. M., Us M. I.
Providing Information and Forecasting of Development of Partnership Relations in Engineering Enterprises (p. 125 - 130)
The purpose of this article is to define the providing of information to partnership, the development on this basis of the model of the information system to support the formation and development of partnerships in engineering enterprises with the possibility of predicting the results of the development of relations with partners. When analyzing, organizing and synthesizing scientific works of Russian and foreign scientists the components of the information support required for the development of partnership enterprises were identified. Modeling using Markov chains allowed a prediction of the results of development of relations of machine-building enterprises with partners. The study identified four main stages of collecting and analyzing information about the partners and during the relationship, that enable to get the data needed to determine the effectiveness and feasibility of the development of partnerships with the help of information system "company – partner", which was developed on the basis of decision-making of data analysis. In addition, recommendations on the use of forecasting the probability of development of relations with the help of Markov processes were given. They can be of practical value for the domestic machine-building enterprises, because they help in the planning of activities to improve relations or even termination of the relationship in determining the high proportion of inefficiency of their development. A promising direction for further research is the modeling and software development of relations, in particular addressing issues of resource allocation and spending directed at the development of relations with partners through the use of optimization techniques. Article is written in Ukrainian
Kovalenko K. S.
Analysis of the Influence of Environmental Factors on the Formation of Crisis in the Coke-chemical Industry (p. 131 - 140)
The purpose of this paper is to assess and analyze the impact of environmental factors on the formation of crisis in the coke-chemical industry of Ukraine. An algorithm for assessing the impact of external factors on the coke-chemical industry of Ukraine was developed. On the basis of the developed algorithm the main factors of the external environment were highlighted and analyzed, also the model of dependence of the volume of production of coke in Ukraine from the marked external factors was created, which made it possible to emphasize the dominant external factors and rank them in order of important influence on the coke industry. Analysis of the quality of the constructed model showed that the model is adequate and can be used to analyze the impact of external factors on the activities of coke enterprises of Ukraine. On the basis of the created model by Monte-Carlo method, a series of simulation modeling experiments were conducted, which revealed that the deterioration in the functioning of coke enterprises due to the external factors is unlikely and the cause of the crisis lies in the internal environment of the enterprises. Article is written in Russian
Sherstennikov Y. V., Rudianova T. M.
Simulation Analysis of Potential Possibilities of Development of Small Enterprises of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (p. 141 - 147)
The objective of the article consists in modeling the dependence of the production output on such factors as the cost of fixed assets and human labor selected as those producing a significant effect on the studied criterion. The simulation object is the product manufacturing process over 13 years in such areas as industry, transportation, construction, agriculture at small enterprises of Dnipropetrovsk oblast. While analyzing statistical data over 13 years, a methodology was proposed to ensure the necessary homogeneity of a set of observations serving as a basis for an econometric model of the Cobb-Douglas type, which allowed establishing the economic effectiveness of the areas, potential possibilities of their development; evaluating the effectiveness of utilization of material and labor resources; predicting production growth. Prospects of further studies in this field consist in selecting an optimal degree of attraction of enterprise resources, that is optimization of resource management. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №10-2014
Zakharchenko P. V., Savushkin D. I.
The Transformational Cycle in the Economy of the Resort and Recreational Systems (p. 148 - 152)
In today's world economy, resort recreation is one of the most highly profitable business areas. In Ukraine there's a powerful resort and recreational potential, an effective development of which can succeed in the real economic benefits. With this in mind, a system conception of the development of such systems should be created, in which the economic transformations are identified as the integral components. The article is aimed at developing of an approach to the economic transformations modeling of the resort and recreational systems where transformation emerges as the intrinsic and necessary part. As a result of the study the notion of transformation as a period of cyclical dynamics was grounded and the script of transformative interaction of the resort and recreational systems in order to generate synergies was received. In the proposed approach it is presumed to examine the economic development of the resort and recreational systems as an interaction of the economic cycles and transformation processes. The notion of transformational cycle was introduced and the mechanism for its functioning was displayed. On this base a model was created, which allows the description of the transformational strategies in form of the transformational cycle. Article is written in Ukrainian
Vinnikova O. S., Nazarenko H. V.
Prognostics of the Results of Application of Tax Advantages, on the Basis of Simulation Method (p. 153 - 159)
The article is aimed at studying of the capabilities of simulation modeling of the consequent effects on application of tax advantages. Summing up the achievements of the classical scientific papers on simulation, the expediency of application of the economic-mathematical method for prognostics of the consequent effects of the tax advantages application was grounded. The study offered several simulation models that give an idea about their effects on the interests of the subjects of tax relations - State, economic entities and the public. In particular, the simulation modeling results of providing manufacturers of bakery products with income tax advantages were distinguished, among which the most viable option was reducing of the tax rate. The models, which allowed to evaluate the impact of the tax rebates and individual income tax credits on the tax revenues and a reduction in the consumption of traditional energy resources, were also considered. The prospect of further research in this area is to define the possible application of the simulation modeling method in prognostics of the consequent effects on the use of other tax regulation tools, with a view to achieving economic and social outcomes. Article is written in Ukrainian
Nebylytsia O. А.
Substantiation of the Socio-Economic Efficiency of Personnel Management in the Modern Enterprise (p. 159 - 164)
The article is aimed at substantiation of specifics of the socio-economic efficiency of personnel management in the modern enterprise for purposes of career growth of employees. The algorithm of the socio-economic efficiency of personnel management based on the analysis and synthesis of scientific works and activities of the enterprises of the machine-building industry was developed and proposed considering two main components: economic and social. Managerial decisioning to ensure the social efficiency of personnel management is based on the evaluation of the level of the personnel career growth; setting priorities to improve the individual components of the personnel career growth in the enterprises' structure; questionnaire survey of employees to identify their propensity for the related career and the factors influencing the development of personnel. To address these challenges method of taxonomy and method of discriminant models building were used. Determination of the economic efficiency of personnel management in virtue of its career growth was proposed to be conducted on basis of an economic-mathematical model of cause-and-effect relationships between the improved indicators of the personnel career growth and the revenues of the enterprise. For this purpose, a correlation and regression analysis was carried out and a model was built, which allows to evaluate the economic efficiency of personnel management. The obtained results comprise the basis for the development of the complex of measures aimed at improving the system of personnel management in the enterprise. Article is written in Ukrainian
Shibaeva N. V.
Readiness of Economic Entities to Abide by the Rules as Component of the Efficiency of Regulatory Policy (p. 164 - 168)
The article is aimed at one of the components of the efficiency of regulatory policy: readiness of the economic entities operating in the agricultural economic area to comply with the requirements of the regulatory acts. In the article the existing approaches to economic analysis of the readiness to abide by the rules, required by the regulatory policy, are studied and compared. This analysis allows to determine how the existing approaches explain the behavior of the entities of the agricultural economic area and also to create the theoretical background for the possible empirical analysis of the efficiency of regulatory actions by the State. In the article is concluded that the neoclassical theory in explaining the behavior of the economic actors focuses on the balance of profit – expenses. Given some limitations, this approach should include data variables in the model, which would explain the observance of requirements of the regulatory policy by the actors. However, there is also a need to address the social and psychological factors, personal motivations, social reciprocity and public pressure. Though the role of the neoclassical economic variables is well understandable, there are some difficulties with taking into account the uneconomical variables. However, it seems appropriate to add the following variables to the model: variable of the risk-free behavior in the case of potential profit and the riskful behavior in the case of potential losses; variables reflecting the influence of the psychological and social factors. A practical solution of building the model presupposes the availability of a few options, but the choice of the concrete solution of this particular issue must be the subject of a further independent research. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №11-2014
Pidkhomnyi O. M.
Criteria for Identification of Financial Pyramid Schemes and Simulating of their Functioning (p. 102 - 107)
In the article criteria of financial pyramid schemes are considered, which allows to formulate definitions of these phenomena on base of economic and legal positions, and to allocate financial pyramids among other types of financial relations. The main forms of functioning of financial pyramid schemes are covered. Approaches to modeling of financial pyramid schemes are generalized. The model of functioning of a financial pyramid scheme is proposed, which allows to divide the time of its existence into discrete periods. Through iterations on the basis of the proposed system of formulas, dynamics of a number of interrelated indicators of a financial pyramid can be calculated. The mathematical apparatus used in the model allows to display in diagram form different aspects of functioning of financial pyramid schemes. It is specified, that impossibility to fulfill the promised payments may result in a sudden collapse of a financial pyramid scheme, due to the cessation of contributions, though continuation of its functioning with a gradual decline in activity is possible as well. Article is written in Ukrainian
Fedorchak O. E.
Retrospective Economic Evaluation of Mechanisms for Attracting Investments to the Enterprise (p. 108 - 113)
The study is aimed to define the methods of economic evaluation of mechanisms for attracting investments. This aim follows logically from the obvious need of an enterprise to have criteria for selection of the mechanisms for attracting investments and to form the order of their usage. Therefore the scientific papers on this problematics were analyzed and it was determined that solutions of the specified problem are still absent in the works of many scientists. Given this fact, the author has introduced his own methods for economic evaluation of mechanisms for attracting investments. Thus, in the article peculiarities of the functioning of these mechanisms are reviewed and the indicators that can be used for their economic evaluation are disclosed. On the basis of the results, derived from previous research, in this article the indicators of efficiency of mechanisms for attracting investments, as elaborated by the author, are presented and the method to calculate the one integral indicator is proposed. It is worth noting, that one of the most significant results of this research is that not all mechanisms to attract investments can be evaluated on the basis of retrospective data. It would be therefore advisable to a further research, aimed at definition of methods for the economic evaluation of the mechanisms on the basis of the expected future results of their usage. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №12-2014
Sidorko N. L.
Methodical approaches to the Formation of Human Capital of Ukraine in the Contemporary Context: Modeling of Threats (p. 200 - 205)
In the article has been declared, that human capital is a foundation of ensuring the country's economic growth and a vector of its development, and presence of disadvantaged circumstances for its formation may have a significant negative influence on its quality. The main characteristics have been formulated and the factors of influence on the formation of human capital of the country have been denoted, as well as use of method for analysis of hierarchies (MAH) for their systematizing was proposed. Based on the MAH-method, a model of hierarchy of factors of formation of human capital of the country was built, which is further used as a base for the model of rating the key threats as to its formation in Ukraine. The need to account for the identified threats, which are recognized as threats of the State level, during development of the conceptual framework for the formation of human capital of the country is proven; this will provide an impact on the provision of the needed quantity and quality, and with ensuring of the measures considered above, the country will get the opportunity to take its place among the other highly developed countries of the world, ensuring a high standard of living and development for the people. Article is written in Ukrainian
Ostapchuk K. V.
Using an Econometric Model in the Analysis of the Relationship of Ukrainian and World Transport Systems (by Example of Rail Transport) (p. 206 - 213)
Evaluation of the interaction between Ukrainian and global transport systems is based on a number of general scientific methods, among which the special role is played by the method of economic and mathematical modeling. To meet the target goal of the study, a defined algorithm of actions has been proposed, which consists of three stages: preparation of input data, the multi-factor linear regression, the forecasting effort. To build the econometric model, the following seven variables was chosen: export of rail services; import of rail services; investments in fixed capital of the railway; the average distance of carriage of goods; the average speed for the carriage of goods; the average weight of goods; the profitability of the railway. On the basis of the model used in the study the mutual dependence of imports and exports of rail services was confirmed; it was found that the main technical component of the Ukrainian railways is the speed of the freight wagons in Ukraine, by which the importance of technical modernization of the railway transport is underscored. Article is written in Ukrainian
Zyma I. P.
Modeling of Managerial Reporting (p. 214 - 219)
The article is aimed to explore approaches to modeling of managerial reporting in the enterprise. It has been determined, that, in building models of managerial reporting, a modeling object is not a separate number of forms or indicators, but a system of forming the reports in its entirety, as a process. Analyzing the definition of «business process», it can be argued, that forming of managerial reporting should be considered as referring to the category of business processes, the end product of which is information about the company's activities. Information as the end product is turned into a managerial resource, providing the possibility of decisions-making, without which no existence of business is possible, thus making the process of forming the reports vital to the company. The study suggested that process of forming the reporting is considered as business process, that can be defined as a series of actions with clearly marked elements of informational input and output, and elaborating of reporting indicators as the end product. Developing a managerial reporting model is reasonable to start with an analysis of business processes, identifying of correlations and analysis of eventual changes. Modeling of managerial reporting can be accessed through the graphical notation tools as well as case-tools. Implementation of system of managerial reporting and improvement of its model are based on the same approach as the process improvement in organizations, namely: BPM or BPR. Article is written in Ukrainian
Pokutsa I. V.
Systemic Approach to the Planning of Major Repairs of Property Assets in the Water and Sewer Utilities Enterprises (p. 220 - 224)
The article is aimed to study the functional interrelationship of economic losses from accident management in the water and sewer utilities enterprises and the planned expenditures on major repairs, taking into account the frequency and intensity of hardware failures, as well as indicators of aging. The proposed economic-mathematical model allows to determine optimum frequency of major repairs, taking into account the factor of hardware failure rate, as well as amount of planned costs for major repairs. As result of the study the optimum amounts of planned costs for major repairs, taking into account the average rate of equipment aging, was calculated; insufficiency of funding for repairs has been identified and justified, that, with the proper funding for major repairs according to the proposed model, the enterprise has an opportunity to reduce annual accident management costs significantly. Prospects of further research in this area is to determine the sources of funding for major repairs, application of the contemporary methods of managerial decision-making – such as method of hierarchical analysis by T. Saaty – in order to build a hierarchical model for determining the optimal method of calculating the depreciation costs in the enterprises. Reforming of the existing system of major repairs in the water and sewer utilities enterprises in accordance with today's economic realities, taking into consideration the issues of the branch, accumulated through the years, is an objective need for the further sustainable development of enterprises. Article is written in Ukrainian
Kushniruk A. О.
Diagnosis of Work Output in Small Construction Enterprises as the Basis for their Effective Functioning and Economic Security (p. 225 - 230)
The aim of this article is evaluation of the level of economic security of small construction enterprises whose main activity is construction of buildings. It has been suggested to determine the level of economic security of construction enterprise by comparing the growth rate of net profit to the growth rate of work output. A matrix of defining the level of economic security of construction enterprise has been presented, which is based on both the change of status of construction enterprise, and the results of its ongoing activities. The presented matrix distinguishes between 12 possible states of economic security for a construction enterprise. On results of the study has been determined, that identifying the relationship and elaboration of econometric dependencies between the resulting indicators of performance of small construction enterprises and the work output are not feasible. Such modeling does not produce a sufficiently high representative estimates for future forecasting. Article is written in Ukrainian
Kravchenko S. M.
Using the Economic-Mathematical Methods to Study the Prospects for Development of Investment Activity in the Field of Knowledge-Intensive Production (p. 231 - 236)
In the article the algorithm of using correlation and regression analysis to study the factors affecting the development of investment activity in the field of knowledge-intensive productions is introduced. Using the statistics from the State statistics service, a group of indicators of influence on the investment policy in the field of knowledge-intensive productions was allocated. On the basis of correlation analysis the indicators with significant influence on this process were identified. These include: the amount of the commercial production of new types of products, items, the share of organizations involved in innovation, the proportion of the amount of finished scientific and scientific-technical works in the GDP. The constructed model provides, while modifying the input parameters, for exploring of different states of the investment process, occurring in the field of knowledge-intensive productions. According to results of the study, it has been determined that the proportion of the amount of finished scientific and scientific-technical works in the GDP is the factor, which has the most significant influence on the development of knowledge-intensive productions. Therefore, all directions of investment policy in this area should be focused on the improvement of this indicator. Article is written in Ukrainian
Golofaieva I. P., Serhiienko O. A., Soldatova Y. Y.
Managing the Financial Security of a Commercial Bank on the Basis of the Flow-Oriented Scenario Models (p. 237 - 247)
In this work the essence of the financial security of commercial bank (FSCB) is considered, its main objectives and factors of forming are identified, methods and models for studying of FSCB-level are analyzed. A complex of models for FSCB management, based on methods of multivariate, econometrical, simulation and scenario modeling, was elaborated. Models for integrated evaluation of threats to FSCB, and a simulation model of FSCB dynamics in terms of external and internal factors of influence were built. The simulation model of financial security was improved with regard to indicator of financial reliability of commercial bank, which is calculated on the basis of an assessment of the structural elements of financial reliability, i.e. the integrated indicator of financial reliability of own capital, the integrated indicator of financial reliability of assets, the integrated indicator of financial reliability of obligations and the integrated indicator of financial reliability of the financial result, which serves as the basis for developing the models of forming and selecting of scenarios for ensuring the FSCB. The built complex of models provides for a comprehensive analysis of situations in the banking market; analysis of structural elements of commercial bank's financial security; an integral analysis of factors of the external and internal influence on the level of financial security; simulation of scenarios for ensuring the financial security and substantiation for the choice of an appropriate strategy. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №1-2015
Holub R. R.
Theoretical and Methodological Analysis of the Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate Modeling (p. 116 - 123)
The article is aimed at theoretical and methodological analysis of the monetary approach to the exchange rate modeling. Absence of universal theory (model) of currency exchange rate formation, which would be effective in countries with different economic conditions, has been identified. Approaches that differentiate the classic models of the exchange rate are considered. Expedience of use of the monetary approach to modeling the influence of fundamental macroeconomic factors on the dynamics of the exchange rate has been substantiated. Transmission mechanisms within the framework of the monetary approach have been considered. It has been proven that a transmission mechanism from the monetary momentum, through prices and to the currency exchange rate is perfect and works instantly. The approach of so-called «sticky prices» in the framework of the exchange rate theory has been considered. Causes of occurrence of the time lags in the monetary transmission mechanism have been characterized. Dynamics of exchange rates in accordance with the monetary approach, which is determined by the relative supply and demand of money in the economy, has been considered in terms of long-term perspective. A contemporary vision as to the issue of demand for nominal money balances has been presented. Importance of using the logarithmic form of relationship between currency exchange rate and the factors that predetermine it has been substantiated. Article is written in Ukrainian
Yemelyanov O. Y., Lesyk L. I., Vysotskij A. L.
Theoretical Bases of Formation and Estimation of the Production-and-Supply Potential of Machine-Building Enterprises (p. 124 - 130)
In the article the regularities of formation and estimation of the production-and-supply potential of machine-building enterprises are studied. As integral indicator of this estimation has been proposed to use the largest possible size of the operating profit of company for a certain period of time. Mechanism of forming this indicator, which pre-requires building chains of target functions at different levels, is described. A three-tier model is elaborated, according to which all the factors determining the level of the production-and-supply potential of enterprises, are divided into: primary, secondary (measuring of which is based on information about the primary factors) and summarizing, quantitative evaluation of which is based on processing of information about primary and secondary factors, using appropriate methods, such as optimization. A method for estimation of the production-and-supply potential of machine-building enterprise, by identifying the optimal natural amounts of producing and selling for each kind of product and finding the best values of the controlled primary and secondary indicators, has been proposed. Article is written in Ukrainian
Prymostka A. О.
Agent-Oriented Modeling of Stock Market (p. 131 - 136)
In article the main points of the conception of agent-oriented modeling are considered, an interpretation of the term «agent» is presented, agent-oriented models of financial markets are analyzed. The main attention is paid to the agent-oriented model of stock market by Lux and Marchesi, which was used as a basis for development of a programming unit for calculation of artificial market to simulate stock market's activity and predict its price dynamics. As result of computer simulation, a forecast of dynamics of prices change and profitability of shares, distribution of traders on the chartists and fundamentalists, economic sentiment index that characterizes the relationship between pessimistic and optimistic chartists, have been obtained. The proposed approach can be used to predict dynamics of the domestic stock market or its individual components under the conditions of high volatility of prises and sudden change of traders' sentiments. Article is written in Ukrainian
Kosenko O. P.
Determining the Level of Obsolescence in the Technological Audit of Intellectual Technologies (p. 137 - 142)
The article is aimed to develop methodical recommendations for estimating the level of obsolescence of intellectual-innovative technologies (intellectual property objects). A detailed analysis of the existing methodical framework has resulted in identification of the main shortcomings of the methodical base for determining the level of obsolescence of the intangible objects and developing a series of recommendations to address them. It has been proposed to take into consideration several scenarios of changes in the level of obsolescence, in particular, proportionate, active, passive and progressive use of intellectual technology. Separately allocated are the intellectual technologies that are poorly amenable to obsolescence. On the basis of actual situation as to specific intellectual technology, will be recommended, for practical calculations and in the valuation of intangible assets in particular, to use the factor of proportionality of obsolescence. A bivariant mechanism for determining this factor: the method of expert assessments and analytical method based on the criterion of quality by A.V. Glichev, which allows the use of a wide array of information on past, current and potential features of intellectual technologies, has been elaborated. Economic-mathematical models for practical implementation of the analytical approach to determining the proportionality factor of obsolescence are proposed. The developed models are recommended for practical use in carrying out technological audit procedures of intellectual property objects in industrial enterprises. Article is written in Ukrainian
Klebanova T. S., Rudachenko O. O.
Forecasting the Indicators of Financial Activities of Housing and Communal Services Enterprise Using Adaptive Models (p. 143 - 148)
The article is aimed at preventing bankruptcy of housing and communal services enterprises. The role, place and significance of housing and communal services at the present stage of development of the national economy are considered. A list of significant problems of communal services enterprises is provided. A methodical approach to evaluation, analysis and prevention of bankruptcy has been formed, which includes the three stages: first – choosing the diagnostic indicators of financial state of housing and communal services enterprises, second – defining the crisis classes of financial state of housing and communal services enterprise, third – determining the forecasting values of diagnostic indicators of financial state of housing and communal services enterprises. Using adaptive models, a forecasting of diagnostic indicators of financial activity has been conducted on example of a communal services enterprise in the Kharkiv region, with relatively high results and a qualitative forecast. Article is written in Ukrainian
Chernetska I. A.
On the Issue of Profitability Management of Enterprise's Equity Capital on the Basis of Target Indicators (p. 149 - 154)
The article is aimed to study and substantiate the approach to the profitability management of enterprise's equity capital. The concept of «profitability management of equity capital» has been improved, which makes it possible to determine the components and goal of management. The mechanism for determining the target profitability of equity capital as ratio of target amount of net profit to the target value of enterprise's equity capital was considered. In the present context, more attention should be paid namely to the target level of profitability, rather than the maximum level. Target level of profitability depends on the amount of net profit that is necessary for enterprise's development and formation of reserves as well as amount of equity capital in terms of the acceptable financial risk. It has been proposed to manage the profitability of equity capital through the factor indicators that form this profitability, their possible change in the planned year and target values should be taken into consideration. Article is written in Russian
Sagaidak M. P.
Economic-Mathematical Model for Managing the Subsystem «Staff» in the System of Internal Marketing of Enterprise (p. 154 - 159)
Author of the article makes a hypothesis, that the system of internal marketing of enterprise, which is formed in plane of interconnection and building mutually beneficial relations in the chain of «shareholder – top-manager – staff – consumer», can be ranged in a class cybernetic, i.e. managed systems. On this basis, aiming to solving practical tasks of internal marketing of enterprise as a managed system, the key factors that cause the most significant influence on formation of the system and contain both quantitative and qualitative components have been identified. Out of the general spectrum of formation factors, in order to build a multi-factor regression model, the most prioritized factors have been allocated, which include the following: prestige of employer enterprise; chance of career development for employee; level of partnership of company's management with the staff; material and social stimuli for high performance work; information architecture of enterprise; overall rating of the internal image of enterprise. With aim to estimate the actual level of integration of certain factors, on the basis of expert assessments, a multi-factor regression model is built and interpretation of the results of analysis has been carried out. The obtained results suggest that for almost all model parameters the standardized coefficient ? differ very little, thus pointing on uniformity of the impact of selected factors on the process of managing the system of internal marketing of enterprise. Article is written in Ukrainian
Yuzevych V. M., Klyuvak O. V.
Economic Analysis of the Levels of Efficiency and Quality of Internet Payment Systems of Enterprise (p. 160 - 164)
Analyzing, reviewing, and summarizing the scientific works of many scientists, the authors examined the efficiency and quality of Internet payment systems of enterprise (IPSE) in terms of information security, as well as carried out an economic analysis of their levels. As result of the study major security measures have been allocated (preventive security measures sp, measures to identify sd and other security measures so, aimed to mitigate the damages L), which are used for the efficient functioning of the IPSE, and a calculation of the rate of return on investment (ROI) for each of the types of security measures has been proposed. Methods of risk assessment based on statistical approach were applied, a system of mathematical ratios was proposed, which represents an econometric model for optimization of Internet payment systems of enterprise. This model (IPSE) takes into account factors of quality, efficiency, risk, usefulness. Prospect of further research in this area is introduction of the developed econometric model into practical activities of business entities. Article is written in Ukrainian
Malуarets L. M., Morhun H. V.
Analysis of Efficiency of the Export-Import Activity of Enterprise for its Strategic Controlling (p. 165 - 171)
Expediency of considering as the first stage of strategic controlling the export-import activity of enterprise an analysis of the current state of its efficiency by means of indicators, which should be structured in the following groups: external economic efficiency, scientific-technological efficiency, economic efficiency, structural efficiency, opportunities for development of the export-import activities, has been substantiated. The recommended stages for conducting such economic analysis are: 1) clarification of contents of efficiency of the export-import activity of the enterprise; 2) identification of the main components of efficiency of the export-import activity of the enterprise; 3) creation of a system of partial indicators of efficiency of the export-import activity of the enterprise; 4) identifying internal latent factors of efficiency of the export-import activity; 5) determining the relationships between components of efficiency of the export-import activity of the enterprise; 6) ranking the most influencing (significant) indicators of efficiency of the export-import activity; 7) disclosure of trends of changing the indicators, which are the most influencing the efficiency of export-import activity. Implementation of these steps is carried out by using multivariate statistical methods: factorial analysis and canonical analysis. The presented sequence of stages of analysis of efficiency of the export-import activity provides an objective assessment of the current state of enterprise's activity, identifying the negative trends, emerging at the enterprise, and helps the opportunely elaborating the measures to prevent their development. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №2-2015
Kryvoruchko M. Y.
Dynamics of Gross Regional Product: Analysis Based on the Methodology of the Neoclassical Growth Theory (p. 97 - 102)
The article is aimed at studying the dynamics of gross regional product (GRP) per capita in Ukraine on the basis of the methodology of the neoclassical growth theory. The task of this study was to build a model to analyze the presence of convergent or divergent trends in the level of GRP per capita. As result of the study the most common methodological approaches of the neoclassical theory to the analysis of convergence have been summarized, an own method of calculating the factorial signs used in terms of the neoclassical analysis has been proposed. Adequacy of the analytical model, as well as weight and significance of the correlation relationship and regression parameters has been estimated. Analysis of values of the model parameters allows to conclusion that there is no stable trend of convergence or divergence in the level of GRP per capita over the analyzed period. However, it can be argued about the presence of a weak trend of divergence in the dynamics of GRP per capita. Further research should focus on the use of methodology of the neoclassical growth theory for analysing the dynamics of other indicators of regional development, as well as on the improvement of research methods by adding structural parameters of regional development to the model. Article is written in Ukrainian
Lapko O. O., Konarivska O. B.
Modeling of Development Trends in the Non-Bank Financial Institutions in Ukraine (p. 103 - 107)
The article is aimed to estimate the current status of activities of non-banking financial institutions in order to build an econometric model to create favorable conditions for regulating the market of non-bank financial services and formation of managerial decisions aimed at improving the effectiveness of its activities. It has been determined that factors acting on the market of non-banking financial services, have both a positive and a negative influence on the activities of its members, so there is a need to manage these factors. In order to build an adequate econometric model has been proposed in each component of the market of non-bank financial services to choose the major participants that form the supply and demand in these segments. Statistical observations on the number and size of assets of insurance companies, credit unions and joint investment institutions formed the basis of the econometric model. The proposed econometric model of development of non-banking financial institutions in Ukraine, on the basis of the actual state of the market of non-bank financial services, gives an opportunity to predict the regulatory influence of the State on the participants in this market in order to increase their effectiveness and their functional positive impact on the resulting indicator – GDP. Article is written in Ukrainian
Ivanov R. V.
Two-Factor Model of a Rational Profit-Oriented Behavior of Household (p. 108 - 112)
In the article relevance of research of the economic, in particular the profit-oriented, behavior of household, which is a form of a small social group, is substantiated. A model of rational profit-oriented behavior of household in the form of a system of ordinary differential equations is built, in which the factors of change of the amount of total income are the available income and dimensionless value of human capital. It has been determined, that in the medium term the motivation for increase of human capital turns out to be effective, which is aimed at increasing revenues, but in the long term – the one aimed at achieve a certain level of the human capital value, which in turn provides the positive dynamics of total income. One of the directions of further research is to expand the existing models by dividing the indicators of forming the household income on the endogenous (profit and mixed income; income from property) and the exogenous (wages; social assistance and other current transfers). Article is written in Ukrainian
Pursky O. I., Grynyuk B. V., Shestopal D. A.
Simulation of Advertising Costs on Electronic Trade Market (p. 113 - 118)
In the article, a simulation of advertising costs in electronic commerce is carried out. A modification of the classical Salop model to correct for the influence of Internet sellers on consumer preferences by means of non-informational advertising has been implemented. In the modified model, advertising costs are implicit function parameter in consumer utility, which shifts the demand curve immediately, increases the consumer utility and the willingness of consumers to make purchases. Relationships of amounts of advertising expenses, number of sellers and volumes of electronic trading market have been explored. It has been displayed that with expansion of trade market advertising costs of on-line sellers are exponentially increasing. The increase in the number of on-line sellers helps to reduce the advertising costs, and consequently, consumer utility of items for each customer is reduced, which in turn lowers the maximum price level, which can be set by a seller. With a permanent number of consumers in the market, growth of advertising costs when reaching the limit of saturation does not increase the target audience and the level of readiness to purchase advertised products. Expansion of electronic trade market after reaching certain values leads to a decrease in the number of on-line sellers in the market, in this case, increasing advertising costs begin to exceed the sellers profit from the market expansion. Article is written in Ukrainian
Uvarova I. S.
Model of the International Migration Influence on the Economy of Ukraine (p. 119 - 124)
In the article has been determined that, although various aspects of available theoretical concepts of migration are still in use, the unified general theory of migration still does not exist. This is why classical theories of migration do not lose its relevance to this day and can be useful for solving problems and achieving assigned goals. During the years of independence, Ukraine formally established State institutions, whose duties include the management of international migration, as well as laid foundations of the regulatory framework in this sphere. Though, even at the present stage, the State lacks a clear, scientifically sound and, most importantly, realistic foreign policy of migration, which would take into account the current demographic situation and the status of the domestic labor market and meet interests of the State in a whole, its individual regions in particular, as well as various groups of the population, including direct migrants. On the basis of assessment of an econometric model of the migration influence has been displayed that the total income from working immigrants in Ukraine are lower than the relative rates of changes as to selected factors. If the employment income will increase by 1%, the relative growth rate of the labor force in Ukraine will increase by about 4% when all other factors remain unchanged. With this in mind, the strategy of Ukraine's participation in the global migration processes should be focused on reduction of poverty. Article is written in Ukrainian
Bludova T. V., Kulyk A. B., Tshekan’ N. P.
Relationship between External Investment and Product Profitability of Dairy Processing Enterprise (p. 124 - 129)
The article is aimed to study the relationship between external investment and the production profitability, in particular finding the area of elasticity for one of production functions. The relationship between external investment and production profitability of dairy processing enterprise is considered. Areas of the elasticity function that describes the main production are illustrated. Depending on the value of the coefficient of elasticity, the areas of profitability, with the corresponding values for investment, have been displayed. The presented figures confirm the economic properties of elasticity and provide opportunity to analyze the economic indicators of performance of dairy enterprise (profitability), i.e. what must be considered when building a system of performance indicators of dairy enterprises. This system should characterize the degree of efficiency of production and to evaluate the dynamics of economic effect in attracting additional resources. Article is written in Ukrainian
Us H. O.
Simulation of Factors' Influence on the Intellectualization of Labor Potential (p. 130 - 135)
This article is aimed to define the notion of labor potential and its intellectualization, to describe factors and levels influencing this process during the person's life and to build on this basis a cognitive model of factors and levels causing influence on the intellectualization of labor potential. In the article the published papers on the topic are analyzed, category of «labor potential» is defined and understood as possibility to develop labor resources, which is determined by knowledge, the level of education and qualification of the employed population, computer and communication technology skills, capacity to study and improve the intellectual level, mobility. In the research process a set of effective indicators has been proposed, grouped according to the following four criteria: economic, educational, scientific, and technical-technological. The human life cycle has been considered, with emphasizing the degree of influence of individual factors on the formation and development of the intellectual capital. Taking into account the foregoing, a cognitive model of factors' influence on the intellectualization level of labor potential has been elaborated. A promising area for further research is the development of a prediction on the dynamics of intellectualization of the labor potential in the domestic economy on the basis of the proposed cognitive model. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №3-2015
Oleshko T. I., Marusych O. V., Batyniuk N. А.
Analysis and Study of the Structure of Ukraine's Economic Development (p. 55 - 59)
In the article the structure of Ukraine's economic development in the period of political and economic instability has been analyzed and investigated. To determine the integral indicators of socio-economic development, expert-statistical approach was used, because it is the most appropriate in analyzing the economic situation of the country. As a result of research using the method of expert estimations, the main socio-economic factors that have the greatest influence on the economy of the country in a whole have been identified. Structural modifications of the main indicators of economic development of Ukraine have been analyzed and the matrix of factors' interaction has been built, on the basis of which the degree of interaction between the indicators is determined and the activity of factors in the economic system is estimated. Prospects of further researches are to conduct an accurate analysis, develop an adequate model and create a forecast for the country's economic development. Article is written in Ukrainian
Sokolovska Z. M., Yatsenko N. V.
Simulation of the Outsourcing Company's Activity (p. 60 - 70)
The article is aimed at considering possibilities for using the means of simulation modeling in the management of the companies' activities in the sphere of IT-outsourcing. During the synthesis of a number of specialists' papers, problems of companies operating in the domestic outsourcing market have been identified. The need to introduce flexible mechanisms for the management of outsourcing companies on the basis of simulation of their activities has been specified. Simulation modeling has been suggested to use as mathematical means for managerial decision-making. Expedience of applying the method of system dynamics and the software platform Ithink for building models, taking into account the specificity of the outsourcing companies' activities, has been substantiated. A created model of functioning of a typical IT-outsourcing company has been proposed. Fragments of streaming charts related to the model blocks have been presented. The model's performance has been represented by results of simulation experiments on example of the Internet marketing agency «StarMarketing». Simulation experiments on the model contribute to determining general trends of function of the studied object and understanding of the most significant «bottlenecks». Training nature of the model allows to emulate different situations that correspond to the changes of the IT-outsourcing market. Article is written in Ukrainian
Sarafonova I. S.
Optimizing the Growth of the Enterprises – Actors at the Market for Oil-and-Fat Products (p. 71 - 77)
The article is aimed to develop an optimization model of the mid-level aggregate growth of enterprises at the market for oil-and-fat products. The article displays features of the market for oil-and-fat products, the main tendencies of its development. The factors determining the economic efficiency indicators of producers of oil-and-fat products have been identified. A hypothesis for evaluation of individual enterprises' activities has been determined, which helped to form the approaches to economic-mathematical modeling of the optimal characteristics of growth based on the ratios of the production structure and the financial indicators. Theoretical equations of forecast evaluation of selected indicators of the oil-and-fat products market development as well as its participants have been elaborated. An integral criterion for estimation – the total average growth rate of enterprises on the market for oil-and-fat products has been proposed and calculated. Optimizing the level of aggregate growth of enterprises at the market of oil-and-fat production has been conducted by sampling totality of enterprises. On the basis of the developed model, prognostic tendencies of the market growth for enterprises of oil-and-fat industry have been determined. Article is written in Ukrainian
Vasylchenko K. G.
Analysis of Approaches and Methods of Decision-Making on Innovative Development of Food Enterprises under Conditions of Uncertainty (p. 78 - 82)
When carrying out simulating and forecasting of innovation processes in the development of food enterprises, emerge problems associated with the large number of variables and unknown causal links between them, which can be split using the methods of expert estimation. An analysis of methods of decision-making under conditions of uncertainty with respect to the management of innovative activity of food enterprises has been accomplished. The author has compiled a gradation of forming conclusions on sustainable production strategies related to innovative development of food enterprises. A range of weaknesses and strengths of their use in today's dynamic environment of function of the food industry enterprises has been delineated. Article is written in Ukrainian
Poberezhnyi R. O.
Algorithmic Model of Formation of Strategic Profile of Development of Machine-Building Enterprise: Practical Aspect (p. 83 - 92)
The article's aim is to present proposals to develop a strategic profile of enterprise and determine the appropriate «growth points» as an additional tool for the formation and implementation of the overall development strategy. As result of research, a methodical approach to the formation of the concept of development of machine-building enterprise has been proposed, which will provide managers and senior managers with possibility to improve the quality of management decisions in the process of forming the development strategies. Using the fuzzy sets theory, a quantified determining of boundaries of the qualitative features of integral indicators was carried out to build the matrix of development strategies with dividing it into 9 quadrants. This matrix represents a tool to provide with improving efficiency of management decisions in the strategic management of the enterprise's development. Also a positioning of 18 machine-building enterprises of Kharkiv region by the results of 2013 has been carried out. Aimed at detalization of the formed development strategy and elaboration of complex of necessary management measures, an algorithmic model to form the strategic profile of enterprise has been proposed, which will help to determine the influence of activity spheres of enterprise, in accordance with the balanced system of indicators, on its overall development and will assist when choosing the most effective operational strategy for the enterprise's development. Prospect of further research in this area is the methodical support of forming a complex of the general and local development objectives of enterprise according to the chosen strategy of development. Article is written in Ukrainian
Teslya Y. M., Kotetunov V. Y.
Conceptual Model of Pipeline Organization of the Project Portfolio Management (p. 92 - 98)
The article proposes organization of project management and management of the organization through the projects, aimed at profit earning not from individual projects, but from the totality of pipeline projects as a whole by reducing the length and cost of their implementation. The centerpiece of the model is life cycle of the portfolio of projects. In order to effectively manage the portfolio of projects, the authors have proposed a model of pipeline organization of the project portfolio management. In the model, implementation of projects is viewed as a set of processes going through the management pipeline. Each service or each worker performs the same management functions, but does this in different projects and at different time. The model makes it possible to shorten the time limits and reduce the cost of projects, implement projects continuously and evenly. Article is written in Russian
Sudnyk N. V.
Establishing Stabilization Fund while Purchasing Ships under the Bareboat Charter Conditions (p. 98 - 102)
Bareboat charter is a form of long-term renting of ships, which, in most cases, presumes transfer of ownership of the ship to the renter at the end of rental period. This article presents an analysis of gathered practical experience as well as theoretical studies to address the issue of renewal of the national fleet using the long-term renting form. To ensure the obligations of bareboat charterer towards the ship owners has been proposed to establish stabilization fund, formation of which is related exclusively to commercial activities in maritime business and is aimed at ensuring payments covering the bareboat charter in the unfavorable market conditions. Also a scheme of formation of stabilization fund has been proposed, providing models of financial resources of stabilization fund as well as sources of their accumulation. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №4-2015
Andreishyna N. В.
Modeling of Supply and Demand for the Production of Baking Industry of Ukraine (p. 77 - 82)
The article is aimed at modeling and forecasting of supply and demand for the production of baking industry of Ukraine. An analysis of factors influencing the development of supply and demand in the industry has been conducted. Reasons for the decline in production of the baking industry were studied. The conducted analysis of the production and consumption of bread and bakery goods revealed a general trend of decreasing both indicators, and moreover, showed significant excess in consumption of bread and bakery goods over the production. The reason for this is that up to 70 percent of consumption volumes remained outside the official statistical reporting. Relevance of using the adaptive forecasting models has been substantiated, Brown's first-order models for supply and demand for the production of baking industry of Ukraine have been built. A forecast for 2015 on the basis of the built models showed that the downward trend in both consumption and production of bread and bakery goods will persist. Article is written in Ukrainian
Makarenko O. I., Kishchenko O. V.
System for Monitoring Risks in Operation of the Corporate Electronic Document Management System (p. 83 - 88)
The article is aimed at development of the basic principles of risk monitoring for a system of the effective corporate electronic document management. Monitoring of phenomena, processes and their characteristics is necessary for supporting the science-based decision-making in the operation of an electronic document management system. The concept of «monitoring» is interesting in terms of its theoretical analysis because it does not have an exact unambiguous definition, being used in the various areas of scientific research and practice. The complexity of wording of the definition of the «monitoring» concept is also associated with both the science and practical application: monitoring is used as a way to study the object, and as a way to ensure the scope of management activities by means of providing timely and quality information. The article suggested the definition of monitoring risks in electronic documentation management system as the constant supervision of factors that may give rise to risks during the movement of document in electronic documentation management system as well as accumulation of relevant information on the nature of risk origin. The main principles and functions have been allocated, both the formal and the mathematical model of the indicated monitoring system have been built. Article is written in Ukrainian
Sudnyk N. V.
Modeling the Processes of Decision-Making by Operator, Concerning the Chartering Out the Leased Ships (p. 88 - 91)
In practice of the domestic transport business has been established a whole segment of companies that specialize in leasing ships and providing other operations with them. Such companies are referred to as «time-chartered ship owner». This form of business can be arranged without substantial initial investment, making it attractive for domestic entrepreneurs. The article formulates the set of tasks, addressed by companies operating with leased ships. The above companies use in their commercial operations the time-chartered ships, which were leased in advance via open freight market, in order to gain profit, determined by the difference in the level of rates. The profit expressions for various operations with leased ships have been formulated. The article proposes models for substantiating the decision-making, concerning the chartering out the time-chartered ships by the types (market segments). Specific features of establishing the incomes and expenditures of the leaser, operating in different segments of the freight market, have been displayed. Article is written in Ukrainian
Piskunova O. V., Osypova O. I.
Risk of Lowering the Level of Food Security in the Regions of Ukraine under Conditions of Economic Downturn (p. 92 - 98)
The article is aimed at evaluating on the basis of empirical data the risk of lowering the level of food security in the regions of Ukraine and determine its factors by using the econometric simulating techniques. Analysis of scientific papers by domestic and foreign scientists helped to choose binary regression as a toolkit that can be used to evaluate risk as a probability of occurrence of undesirable event, in our case – lowering the level of food security in the regions of Ukraine. On the basis of statistical data on regions of Ukraine during the period from 2000 to 2013, logit and probit regressions with consideration of panel data structure were built. As result of the research has been found that the significant factor, which leads to reduce of the possible deterioration of food security in regions, is the growth of real wages. Besides, reduction of the risk is affected by increased gain in production of cereal crops and vegetables, though not as much as the growth in wages. At the same time, growth in potato production increases the risk of deteriorating food security in the regions. Article is written in Russian
Zhytkevych O. V., Azarova A. O.
Building a Comprehensive Target Program for Enhancing Competitiveness of Domestic Enterprises (p. 99 - 104)
The article is aimed at building a comprehensive target program to enhance competitiveness of enterprises on the basis of a decision-making support system (DMSS) «Solon-2». The article describes that, to enhance competitiveness, measures (projects) of various kind need to be implemented, which together comprise a comprehensive target program (CTP). The authors describe stagewise, on example of one of the domestic producers, the procedure of building a CTP for enhancing competitiveness, which consists of a set of measures and actions, combined by single global objective and shared resources. It has been specified that the main tasks, which come up when planning a CTP are: formulating the objective for CTP; identifying promising directions for its implementation; selecting the most effective projects and the distribution of resources among them. It has been also suggested to use DMSS «Solon-2» to automate this process, as this system most accurately and completely allows to address ways for managing competitiveness of a modern enterprise and is able to meet the challenges related to its improvement. Article is written in Ukrainian
Kononova K. Y., Kovpak E. О., Sukhomlyn P. V.
Multiagent Model of Economic Evolution: Analysis of Sensitivity of Trajectory (p. 105 - 112)
On the basis of the postulates of evolutionary economics, hypotheses of model of economic agents interaction have been formulated, which are formalized by the following set of assumptions: release of agents is described with the Cobb-Douglas production functions; only the economic agents with sufficient investment means may become innovators; agents interact, buy and sell technologies; agents that do not have sufficient amount of capital, pass away; successful economic agents can «spawn a child» and allocate it to the technology and production factors. Based on the listed assumptions, a multiagent model of economic evolution has been developed in the NetLogo software environment. A series of experiments with the model were carried out to analyze the sensitivity of trajectories of total release of agents to the changes in exogenous variables: the initial number of agents, prices of technology, upper limit of capital, with reaching of which agent will be capable of becoming an innovator or «spawn a child», and lower limit of capital, with reaching of which agent passes away. Conclusions about the generated model modes of economic evolution have been drawn. Type of functional dependency between the average value of the absolute growth of aggregate release and values of exogenous parameters of the model has been determined. Practical significance of the constructed evolutionary model of interaction of economic agents is represented by the possibility to analyze the impact of technological development on the nature and pace of macroeconomic dynamics. Article is written in Russian
BUSINESS INFORM №5-2015
Halakhova T. O.
Modeling of Strategic Development of Creative Component of Management of International Companies in the Software and Computer Services Sector (p. 78 - 87)
The article is aimed at exploring the innovative-creative component of management of companies in the software and computer services sector (henceforth – IT-companies), based on its qualitative and quantitative analysis, and studying the correlation relationship between this indicator, research and development costs, as well as company's profit. In results of the study, structural elements of innovative-creative component of management of IT-companies have been identified, its qualitative analysis in the measuring coordinates of «criteria – indicators – showings» has been carried out, and a quantitative analysis has been presented that outlines the author's approach to the development of integral index for development of innovative-creative component of data management of company based on their clustered organization. The conducted comprehensive analysis allows to develop an index of creativity in terms of management system, which in the nonlinear model determines the impact of the optimum amount of research and development costs on the company's profit. The index of creativity characterizes the innovative-creative component of management of IT-companies and represents an integral indicator of its development. It has been proved that the rate of increase in the profit of IT-companies is inversely proportional to the potential profit with the proportionality coefficient – the creativity index of management system. The subject of further research can be conceptualization and improvement of the methodology for the calculation of the integral indicator of the innovative-creative component of management as for IT-companies, so for the companies operating in other economy sectors. Article is written in Ukrainian
Voronin A. V., Gunko O. V.
Aftereffect in the Cobweb Model (p. 88 - 92)
The present work is aimed at further development of the traditional Cobweb model of «demand-supply» in the framework of methodology created by L. Walras and P. Samuelson. The basis for constructing the model is the principle of consideration of the aftereffects on the part of supply on the principle of decreasing «dynamic memory». The mathematical model of the explored process is presented in the form of linear difference equations of Volterra type for the dynamics of prices at the single commodity market. A number of models with degenerated Volterra kernels of special types that have practical value in the economic dynamics has been considered. A parametric stability stability analysis analysis of equilibrium positions for all above indicated models with numerical calculations has been accomplished. Conclusion on possibility of applying the econometric analysis due to the linearity of the considered mathematical models has been made. Article is written in Russian
Rekova N. Y., Talan H. O.
The Economic-Mathematical Model of Dependence of the Intensity of Investments Inflow from Depreciation Policy in the Realities of the Ukrainian Economy (p. 93 - 99)
In the article has been studied that taxation-depreciation policy is one of the main tools to ensure stimulation of investment development of the Ukrainian economy. It has been determined that an important tool for taxation-depreciation policy is accelerated depreciation, which belongs to the tax benefits and effectively use to stimulate investment in countries around the world, including in the high-tech economies, since moral depreciation of fixed assets in the budget-making industries of these countries significantly exceeds the physical, and attraction of investments allows to actively update such funds. Based on the Nauss-Shapiro model, has been developed and implemented an economic-mathematical model of dependence of the investments inflow into the economy by applying depreciation regulations to the realities of the Ukrainian economy. On the results of implementation of the model, the depreciation coefficients have been determined, which ceteris paribus maximize the amount of investment in the economy as a whole as well as in the individual sectors of the economy. Article is written in Ukrainian
Drozd A. O.
Optimal Pricing of the Credit and Deposit Products of Commercial Bank (p. 100 - 108)
The article considers the process of determining the optimal credit and deposit rates of commercial bank that maximizes the capital of bank at the end of the period of management. To accomplish this task, a bank model was used, in which the deposits and credits are presented as cash flows, depending on the credit and deposit rates respectively. A brief description of the model together with a list of assumptions on which it is based was provided. On the basis of the above model, the task of maximizing the capital upon condition of control over the credit and deposit rates was given. To accomplish this task, numerical simulation was carried out using the method of coordinate-wise convergence. It has been found that the optimal credit and deposit rates depend on the bank's capital at the beginning of the period of management as well as on the function parameters in terms of demand for credits and supply for deposits. The higher is the bank's capital management at the beginning of the period of management, the smaller are the optimal credit and deposit rates, however, starting with some level of the capital and above, the optimal rates stay not reduced. The optimal rates will be also decreasing over time as capital increase grows up to a specified level. Consequently, the amount of attracted deposits decreases and the volume of issued credits increases up to a certain level. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №6-2015
Guryanova L. S.
SAR-Models of Mechanism for Estimation, Analysis and Prognosis of Regions' Development (p. 60 - 66)
One of the main objectives of development of the national economy at the present stage is to analyze the structural imbalances of territorial development. Strengthening of such imbalances leads to escalation of strife, increase of the threat to preserving the integrity of economic space. Solutions as to the indicated task should focus at improving the model basis of a mechanism for identifying factors of formation of structural imbalances in the development of territories, aimed at developing a complex of strategic preventive measures directed to elimination of these imbalances. The proposed mechanism involves the following main modules: estimation of interregional social-economic differentiation; analysis of convergence of regional development; prognosis of dynamics of development of the territories; elaboration of inertial and alternative scenarios of socio-economic development of regions. To solve the tasks of each module, a set of models has been developed. One of the main constituents of the proposed complex are the SAR-models of analysis of interregional interaction. Implementation of the above models indicates the formation of the most important effects in the innovation activities of regions, the transfer of social impulses. The developed models can be considered as a tool for support of decision-making in the sphere of State regional policy, aimed at ensuring the balanced development of territories through the establishment of coherent and mutually agreed system of strategic priorities for regional development, improving the investment activities of regional systems. Article is written in Russian
Korshunov E. A.
Methods of Economic-Mathematical Modeling in the Costs Planning of Industrial Enterprise (p. 67 - 72)
In the current economic crisis conditions, in which operate the most of industrial enterprises of Ukraine, the search for directions of optimization of their activities is one of the priorities of their further and strategic development. Today's situation is such that top management of the industrial enterprises does not pay due attention to reducing costs of enterprises, so the publication proposes to use methods of economic-mathematical modeling in the costs planning. One such method is the linear approximation, which gives the possibility, on the basis of the actual data on business activities, namely the dynamics of costs of the principal activity and dynamics of volumes of the marketed products, to build models of dependencies of «costs of the principal activity – volumes of sales». An analysis of the built models displays once again the circle of problems of machine-building enterprises, on solving which their further development and the efficiency of their activities depend. A special place in this process takes planning, because it gives the possibility, on the basis of the analyzed factual data on activities of industrial enterprises, to plan not only costs of the principal activity, but also further development of these enterprises. Article is written in Ukrainian
Bakurova A. V., Didenko A. V., Popova E. U.
Method for Evaluation of Uniqueness of a Tourism Product (p. 73 - 78)
Typicality of tourism products and, as result, high competition at the market of tourist services is forcing firms to develop unique products to increase demand. Aim of the publication is to develop a method for evaluating the uniqueness of tourism product, which is created on the basis of the locating tourist object. The article suggests a method for evaluating the uniqueness of a tourism product on the basis of two factors: uniqueness of the locating tourist object on territorial grounds and the importance of uniqueness of the tourist object for the type of tourism. The levels of hierarchy as to degree of uniqueness of the locating tourist object on territorial grounds have been determined. Development of the inertia model, which considers the psychological inertia factor of people choosing a travel, has been taken further through evaluation of the uniqueness of a tourism product. Uniqueness of the tourist objects of the Khortitsia island, the Kamyana Mohyla, and the wooden churches in the Carpathian region has been substantiated. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №7-2015
Laktionova O. A.
Household Incomes and Costs as Sources of the Country's Flexible Development (p. 94 - 103)
The article analyzes the degree of influence of individual types of the households' financial resources in Ukraine on the stages of formation and use of incomes for provision of economic growth, taking into account the feasibility of the basic conditions of flexible development. As resources for flexible development, in the analysis were used profit and mixed income, entrepreneurial income and income from self-employment, and income from property. Availability and value of extreme points in the dynamics of both financial resources and the household costs, excess of which causes a counter-productive effect on GDP, has been determined. The reserve of increase for individual types of financial resources and household costs towards GDP in relation to their extremes has been estimated. A forecast of changes in the differentiation of the population in Ukraine in the nearest future has been received. It has been specified that agile financial potential of population, under conditions of the cyclic economy development with increasing duration and depth of the crisis and recessionary processes, is a key characteristic of the financial system stability, the basis of its development and, consequently, of the country's flexible economic development, i.e. the resilience of economic dynamics. Article is written in Ukrainian
Syniavska O. O.
Conception of Quality Assessment of the Banking Institutions' Services (p. 103 - 108)
Nowadays, success of the bank's activities and its competitiveness are not determined by price factors only, but, first and foremost, by qualitative characteristics, one of which is quality of the services, provided to consumers. There is therefore a need to improve the quality of banking service. Accordingly, this study is aimed to develop a conception of quality assessment of the banking institutions' services, making use of the economic-mathematical methods and models. The article suggests the basic methods and tools for quality assessment of the banking institutions' services, taking into account shortcomings of existing methods. Indivisibility of processes such as assessment and management of quality has been substantiated. A conception of quality assessment of the banking institutions' services has been developed. It has been displayed, what systems are involved in the process of assessment and management of quality of the banking institutions' services, a description of the relationships between these systems has been provided. An analysis of the interaction of banking institution with the external environment has been conducted as well. The developed conception allows to consider the peculiarities of providing banking services in Ukraine and, as result of its implementation, to enhance competitiveness of bank at the market. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №8-2015
Skitsko V. I., Ignatova I. V.
Modeling Logistic Processes of Orders Fulfillment by Online Store as a Queueing Network (p. 70 - 76)
The article describes the key points of an online store functioning. The basic steps of activity of a typical online store has been considered and a scheme for its functioning has been elaborated. Separately has been allocated the operation task for two phases in the online store activity: depot departments and own delivery service. On the basis of the queueing theory, a stochastic model of functioning of the indicated phases has been proposed. The created stochastic model of a two-phase queueing network with a poisson input has been provided in both dynamics and stationary operating condition. Using the condition of the flow maintaining, analytical expressions of the basic operating characteristics of processes of fulfilling the orders by online store as a queueing network in the stationary mode has been derived. In particular have been derived analytical expressions for the probabilities of the system states, the share of network downtime and the average number of claims in the system. On the basis of the proposed model, the need to develop in further researches a controlled queueing network system has been determined. Article is written in Ukrainian
Pilko A. D., Savchuk N. V.
Modeling the Process of Evaluation of the Level of Economic Security of Region (p. 77 - 84)
The article is aimed to highlight the major findings of the conducted analysis of existing approaches to evaluation of the level of economic security of region from the perspective of territorial systems, as well as to provide development of the own scientific-methodical approach to determine thresholds of integral indicator of economic security of region. On the basis of available statistical information, values of an integral indicator of economic security for the territorial systems of region has been calculated. Both building and analyzing the models, developed on the basis of discriminant analysis, became the basis for a new scientific approach to the determination of threshold values of integral indicator of economic safety of the territorial systems of region. The task of determining the threshold level of economic safety of the territorial systems of region, a solution of which is proposed in this article, may become the basis for development of the perspective direction of monitoring the level of economic security, as well as the respective target programs for ensuring the economic security of the regions of Ukraine. Article is written in Ukrainian
Hlotov Y. O.
Statistical Analysis of Results of Simulation Modeling the Investment Project with MS Excel (p. 84 - 89)
The article examines the methodology of statistical analysis of source data as well as results of simulation modeling the investment project with MS Excel, based on economic task. A quantification to assess the narrowness of relationship between the random variables in MS Excel is proposed to be carried out in two ways: using the statistics functions COVAR () and CORREL () and using special tools for analyzing statistical data: Data analysis ? Correlation. If the number of the studied variables is higher than 2, a more convenient choice will be to use the Excel analysis tools. Usefulness of the statistical analysis of source data and the results of the simulation experiment is that in many cases it helps to reveal inexactness in the source data, or even errors in the task statement. Statistical analysis also allows to test the hypothesis about the normal distribution of both source data and results. To do this, special statistical criteria by Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Pearson and others can be used. MS Excel provides to quickly and effectively implement a calculation of the required criterion and conduct a statistical assessment of hypotheses by means of the descriptive statistics tool that automatically calculates the characteristics of distributions, which are widely used in practice. Article is written in Ukrainian
Kryvoruchko M. Y.
Analysis of the Impact of the Resource Orientation of the Export and Import Economy Components on the Level of Interregional Differentiation in the Socio-Economic Development of Ukraine (p. 90 - 101)
The article is aimed at studying the influence of the resource orientation of the export and import economy components on the level of interregional differentiation in the socio-economic development of Ukraine. The methodological basis of the study is the Sachs-Warner model, whose key position indicates a negative relationship between the proportion of valuable minerals in the structure of national exports and the economic growth in the country (the so called phenomenon of «resource curse»). Modified within the present study, the Sachs-Warner model provides an analysis of impact of the share of mineral resources within the structure of the national exports and imports on the level of interregional differentiation in terms of GRP, GRP per capita, available income, wages, money incomes and expenditures of households. In addition, the methodology of the study involves an analysis of the interregional measuring of impact of the proportion of exported and imported minerals on the specified indicators of the socio-economic development of the regions of Ukraine. The results of the study indicate that the proportion of minerals in the structure of the national export reduces the interregional differentiation at the level of available income and deepens it at the level of both wages and capital expenditures, the share of imported minerals reduces the differentiation at the level of GRP and GRP per capita. Synthesis of the results of the analysis of the interregional phenomenon of «resource curse» suggests a different nature of the relationship between the resource component of the regional exports and imports and the socio-economic development of the regions of Ukraine. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №9-2015
Sushchenko O. A., Trunina I. M.
Formation of an Approach to the Clustered Management of Foreign Economic Activity of Enterprises in the Conditions of Global Competition (p. 91 - 96)
The article is aimed at formation of an approach to the clustered management of foreign economic activity of enterprises in the conditions of global competition. Expedience of use of the cluster approach in the field of management of foreign economic activity of enterprises has been substantiated. A basic framework has been developed and a cluster model for management of foreign economic activity of enterprises providing a description of such management as a complex mechanism with the specified parameters has been created. The basic elements of the cluster model of management of foreign economic activity of enterprise have been allocated. Purposes for selecting elemental clusters in the process of management of foreign economic activity of enterprise have been defined. The partial functions of management that display the functional purpose of the cluster model of management of foreign economic activity of enterprises, as well as the composition of its elements, have been allocated. A generalized hierarchical view of the cluster model of management of foreign economic activity of enterprises has been proposed. A scheme of the operational administration of functioning of the cluster model of management of foreign economic activity of enterprises, based on the core principles and basics of situational simulation, has been presented. Effectiveness of the presented management model is determined by the increasing share of enterprises in the external markets in the context of the relevant clusters, an expansion of the types of foreign economic activity of enterprises, implementation of innovations. Article is written in Ukrainian
Vartsaba V. I.
Theoretical Aspects of Innovatization of the Management of Regional Social Systems on the Basis of the Phenomena Complex «Syntellect – Synergy – Synarchy» (p. 97 - 105)
The article is aimed at the theoretical substantiation of the role and practicability of the both search and elaboration of innovative concepts, technologies and tools for regional management based on the contemporary management requirements of the managerial harmonization of goals, interests, relationships and interaction of participants in the regional markets under the respective acts on the part of public policy and regional management. A model for transforming resources of the regional social system into the economically and socially significant results of its development has been proposed. A graphical-analytic model for managing the status of dysergy-synergy of a socio-economic system by means of the organizational integration of its subsystems has been created, the coefficients for determining the degree of harmonization when controlling the system have been suggested. A base management algorithm for the 3С-Technology of harmonizing objectives and interests of the subsystems of a socio-economic system has been developed. Proceeding from the fact that the basis of the underlying algorithm for the managerial 3С-Technology is in its turn based on the algorithm for implementation of the management tool Strategic Planning (SP), which is supplemented by the mandatory use with the aim of the progressive transformation of the material resources of the system with an intensive and managed participation of the intellectual resources of the latter, becomes quite practical to explore and evaluate the relationship between the results obtained from the use of this technology. Article is written in Ukrainian
Guryanova L. S.
Methods for Substantiating Indicators in the System for Controlling the Balance of Socio-Economic Development of Regions (p. 106 - 111)
One of the dominant trends of the territorial development is seen as strengthening of imbalances, increase in the interregional differentiation, uneven distribution of capacity growth. The existing situation displays weakness of the mechanisms of the system for regulating the regional development, distortions towards the market mechanisms of regional development, necessity to improve the regional policies, mechanisms for ensuring the balanced development of regions, aimed at improving efficiency in the use of scarce resources, accelerating the return of the system to the trajectory of equilibrium growth. Among the main functional tasks for such mechanisms, the task of substantiation of a system of indicators for the socio-economic development of regions has been allocated. So far the issues of evaluating the informativeness of indicators, studying the sustainability of the system of diagnostic signs in the dynamics have remained underexplored. The publication proposes an algorithm, which is based on synthesis of the methods of principal components as well as canonical correlations, allowing to conduct analysis of the spatio-temporal variations of signs, structure of their relations, which increases the validity of the choice of indicators for monitoring in the system for controlling the balance of socio-economic development of regions. Article is written in Russian
Kryvoruchko M. Y.
Resource-Oriented Exports and Imports as a Factor of the Socio-Economic Development of the Regions of Ukraine (p. 112 - 122)
The article is aimed at studying the influence of resource-oriented exports and imports on the level of socio-economic development of the regions of Ukraine. The methodological basis of the research is a modified model of Sachs and Warner, which is based on the analysis of a correlative-regression relation between the share of exported and imported minerals and the indicators of socio-economic development of regions for the period of 2006-2013. The results of the study indicate that an increase in the share of the minerals in the structure of exports negatively affects the socio-economic development of the indicators for Zakarpattya, Zaporozhzhya, Kyiv, Lviv, Mykolayiv, Poltava, Ternopil, Cherkasy, Chernivtsi and Chernihiv regions. This correlation relationship was positive for the economy of the Republic of Crimea, both Vinnitsa and Sumy regions. The share of imported minerals had a positive impact on the socio-economic development of Vinnytsia, Zakarpattya, Zaporozhzhya, Kyiv, Lviv, Kharkiv, Cherkasy and Chernigiv regions. Statistical characteristics of the modified model of Sachs and Warner indicate significance and practical importance of the analyzed correlative-regression relationship in the regions of Ukraine for the indicators of the capitation GDP and the available income when analyzing the period in question. Article is written in Ukrainian
Lytvynenko K. О.
Social Accounting Matrix as a Tool for Studying the Impact of Commercial Real Estate on the National Economy (p. 122 - 128)
In the article, a social accounts macro-matrix (SAMM) of Ukraine was built. It has been proven that SAMM is a flexible tool for inter-sectoral analysis, combines data from many different sources that help describing the structural characteristics of economy. The publication analyzes all accounts in the matrix, such as added value, intermediate demand, distribution of net factor income, private consumption, current Government expenditures, investment demand, foreign trade and others, taking into account the impact of the commercial real estate market for every given account. It has been found that this market is closely linked to almost all parts of the economic system, is influenced by the macroeconomic indicators and can by itself contribute to revitalization and recovery of individual industry sectors and the economy as a whole. The social accounting matrix in the future can serve as a basis for researching the multiplied effects from investing in a specific sector, for this very case – the commercial real estate market, to calculate the direct, indirect and induced effects of cash infusions. Article is written in Ukrainian
Lisovskyi I. V., Rudnichenko Y. M.
Building a Model for Optimization of Informational-Analytical Ensuring of Cost Management of Industrial Enterprise (p. 129 - 134)
The article examines peculiarities of building a model of informational-analytical optimization of cost management. The main sources of information together with approaches to cost management of industrial enterprises have been identified. In order to ensure the successful operation of enterprise in the conditions of growing manifestations of crisis, a continuous improving of the system for enterprise management along with the most important elements, which are necessary for its normal functioning, should be carried out. One of these so important elements are costs of enterprise. Accordingly, for an effective cost management, the most appropriate management approaches and tools must be used, based on a proper informational-analytical support of all processes. The article proposes an optimization model of informational-analytical ensuring of cost management of industrial enterprises, which will serve as a ground for more informed and economically feasible solutions. A combination of best practices and tools to improve the efficiency of enterprise management has been proposed. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №10-2015
Vartsaba V. I.
Structural-Analytical Substantiation of Relationships and Conditions to Ensure a Harmonized Interaction between Stakeholders in the Regional Economy (p. 130 - 136)
The article is aimed at a theoretical substantiation of necessity to search for ensuring the rationality and harmony of relationships in regional society that requires a corresponding structural-analytical substantiation along with formation of a network of relationships and terms of engagement of stakeholders in the regional economy. It has been analytically proved that results of the regional social systems (ROS) are directly determined by quantitative and qualitative indicators of the structure of interacting entities, by types and quantitative values of characteristics of both the backward and forward linkages between subjects and objects in this management system, as well as quantitative and qualitative characteristics of the transformation efficiency resulting from this structure and relationships. It has been determined that as additional regional resource can and should serve the organizational component, displayed through feedbacks in the system, together with the economic component, expressed numerically as estimates of the coefficients to the efficient/inefficient transformation of resources by subsystems/groups of the ROS stakeholders. Further research should be directed to elaboration of recommendations on adaptation of the results obtained to ensure the conditions of harmonized interaction between the main stakeholders in the regional public systems. Article is written in Ukrainian
Ivanov R. V.
Conceptual Model of Economic Behavior of Households in Conditions of Self-Sustainment (p. 137 - 141)
The article examines the issue of modeling the economic behavior. An assumption about an analogy between the «creation-consumption» processes in economy and the «evulsion-absorption» in hydrodynamics is introduced. The kinetic structure of such elementary material flows has been determined. It has been found that consumption (spread) of resources for an isolated point of consumption (production) has the same spatial structure and speed characteristics as fluid movement in the area of runoff (source). It has been suggested to name a production point «economic source» and the point of consumption – «economic runoff». As a model of economic behavior of household in conditions of self-sustainment, a combination of economic source and economic runoff, which forms an economic dipole, has been suggested. Further development of the proposed methodology would allow to study the possible (necessary) behavioral reaction of an economic agent to the impact by both endogenous and exogenous factors. Article is written in Ukrainian
Lyashenko O. I., Krytsun K. I.
Econometric Studies of the Influence of Macroeconomic Factors on the Rate Quotes Dynamics for the US-Dollar at the Currency Market of Ukraine (p. 142 - 148)
The influence of macro factors on the exchange rate quotes at the currency market of Ukraine in conditions of currency corridor has been examined. Three models with three ways revaluation of data towards stationarity has been built, the quantitative characters of these models has been analyzed as well. Regressions were tested for presence of autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity and multicollinearity. On the basis of the three models, the forecasted values for three periods have been built, from the 4th quarter of 2014 till the 2nd quarter of 2015, as well as their absolute average error in percentage has been estimated. The difference between the exchange rate at the interbank market and the exchange rate for absolute purchasing parity has been explored. Previous research in the field of exchange rate prognosing and econometric forecasting at the currency market for different modes of currency regulation has been considered. The perspectives of prognosing the exchange rate at the currency market of Ukraine have been examined and analyzed. Article is written in Ukrainian
Azarenkova H. M., Olefir I. A., Kriukova H. K.
Using Adaptive Forecasting Models in the Contemporary Conditions of the Financial-Economic Space (p. 149 - 155)
The article is aimed at a theoretical-methodological substantiation and practical application of the adaptive forecasting models in the development of adaptation measures. Evolution of the use of adaptive models, particularly its simple form – exponential smoothing – as well as change of its basic principles when building forecasts has been considered. It has been determined that most adaptation measures are directed to «survival». However, current conditions put forward other requirements: in order to become competitive, «protective» methods are not sufficient, there is the need for adaptation measures aimed at development. With regard to the volatile and uncertain financial-economic space, the best basis for establishing such measures is the short-term forecasting (until 3 years) that would preserve the representativeness of the results. Thus, the methodology set out in article as to applying adaptive models for enterprises is also suitable for forecasting of main parameters of banks' activities with introduction of corresponding adjustments and refinements that will improve efficiency of the process of adaptation to characteristics of the financial-economic space. Article is written in Ukrainian
Guryanova L. S.
Increased Regional Imbalances as the Dominant Trend of Territorial Development: Assessment and Effects Analysis (p. 156 - 164)
The article displays that the dominant trends of territorial development in the context of globalization and transnationalization of markets are increased irregularity of regional development, rapid polarization of the economic development of individual countries and regions, spatially stable economic concentration. Effects of the increased irregularity of regional development are higher vulnerability of economy, its reduced stress resistance towards external «shocks». A conducted analysis showed that the potential for economic growth is concentrated mostly in the economically developed regions, where trade and financial flows are effectively built into the system of global competition. For most macro-regions and interior regions channels for technology transfer and deployment are unavailable. This leads to reproduction of the trend of increased irregularity of regional development, both at the level of world dynamics and at the level of individual regions. Examination of the level of irregularity of the regional development of Ukraine, assessment of its effect on economic growth based on production-institutional functions suggest that indicators of the regional development irregularity substantially exceed the threshold (safe) values, i.e. the imbalance of economic space is becoming a threat to the stable development of the economic system that requires improving the existing mechanisms for the State regulation of regional development. Article is written in Russian
Klebanova T. S., Gvozdytskyi V. S.
Assessment of Propensity of Enterprises towards Bankruptcy by on the Basis of Methods of Fuzzy Logic and Fuzzy Neural Networks (p. 165 - 170)
The article is aimed at development of models for assessment of enterprises' propensity towards bankruptcy by the methods of fuzzy logic and fuzzy neural networks. Use of a system of indicators, included in the different financial groups, providing a complex description of the financial condition of enterprise, has been substantiated. The publication describes the major advantages of the apparatus of fuzzy logic in assessing the threat of bankruptcy. In order to build a fuzzy model, two linguistic variables were formed and classified: class of financial crisis and the corresponding status of enterprise. Implementation of the model has been tested with regard to activities of five enterprises in the engineering industry sector of Ukraine. The results of modeling have been analyzed and compared by methods of fuzzy logic and neuro-fuzzy networks. Recommendations on forecasting the future financial status of enterprises have been offered. Article is written in Russian
Svidenko A. V.
Pricing at the Oil Products Market of Ukraine (p. 171 - 176)
Objectives of the article are description of the mechanisms for establishing retail prices at the oil products market of Ukraine and building a model of behavior for retail network of fuel filling stations. The current status of the Ukrainian oil market has been analyzed, the main factors of pricing as well as relationship between them have been described. Since this market is oligopolistic and non-transparent, it is important to have mechanisms for modeling the behavior of prices. The publication provides a mechanism for assessing the cost of retail prices for petroleum products and a retail price ratio algorithm together with the results of such assessment. The possibility to use different approaches to modeling of prices has been described, some advantages of a neural network as to building models of behavior for retail network of fuel filling stations have been displayed. The basic structure of network as well as the data required to build a model have been provided. The network training and testing results indicate efficiency of this approach in modeling the oil products market of Ukraine, as well as the possibility of building a thorough model not only for a separate network, but also for the market in general. Article is written in Ukrainian
Shmatko E. A.
Statistical Analysis of Cognitive Model for Researching Market of Insurance Services with Consideration for Loyalty (p. 177 - 181)
Each insurance company faces a challenge to retain existing customers as well as attract new ones by providing the quality of service, availability of services and introduction of a loyalty program. To identify problems with both the system functioning and the development of future scenarios, cognitive modeling can applied. The article is aimed at the statistical analysis of a cognitive model for researching market of insurance services with consideration for loyalty of policyholders. The system characteristics of the cognitive model: consonance, dissonance, the negative and positive effects have been assessed. On the basis of the analysis of the obtained estimates some ways to assist an activation of the loyalty formation processes have been suggested: setting the mutually favorable tariff rates; formation of a system for increasing the financial literacy of the population; providing quality service along with formation of the insurers' image as reliable partners. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №11-2015
Kocharyan I. S.
Macroeconomic Planning of Training the Specialists with Higher Education in the «Culture and Art» Sector (p. 119 - 124)
The article is concerned with improvement of system for management of higher education in the direction of increasing the level of scientific character of the macroeconomic planning of training the specialists with higher education, in particular in the «culture and art» sector. The importance of developing macroeconomic planning is emphasized through the scientific substantiation as to the formation of the State order for the training of highly qualified personnel, because when there is a shortage of specialists in certain specialties, the training and production of specialists in other specialties often is in large excess over the real needs for economic agents. To identify the extent of the planning proportionality, a real plan for training specialists in the higher educational institutions of the Ministry of culture of Ukraine, sector of «culture and art», has been reviewed and analyzed. The topical task of planning has been considered: to determine the planned volumes of training specialists in each specialty, which will not be exceeded by the total training capacity for the preparation of each specialty, total annual expenditure on training specialists that do not exceed the annual funding (budget) of higher education, and the degree of satisfaction of needs reaches its maximum value. Solving the task by means of MS Excel has helped to receive such a plan of public order for training of specialists, which will provide the most uniform training of specialists in all specialties. Article is written in Ukrainian
Kravets T. V., Gaponenko T. O.
Fractal Analysis of Foreign Exchange Market by Means of Monitoring the Hurst Exponent (p. 125 - 131)
The article analyzes the behavior of currency quotations at the foreign exchange market by identifying dynamic changes in time, in terms of the Hurst exponent, as a tool of fractal analysis, belonging to the fractal market hypothesis. Calculations of Hurst exponent by the adjusted formulas of the R/S analysis for 17 major currency pairs at the closing prices as well as the prices of maximum/minimum have been carried out. A comparison of the results within the timespan of 2008-2014 has been conducted, providing for comparing the exponent value at the foreign exchange markets of different countries under different economic conditions. The Hurst exponent of currency pairs in terms of the stable economic situation tends to preserve its average value, further on, it indicates the events that directly or indirectly affect the State's economy and its national currency exchange rate. Application of the method of «sliding window» has allowed to simulate the dynamics of the Hurst exponent for the following currency pairs: USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD and to set certain patterns of conduct for the quotes series resulting from the appropriate response to the economic, political and natural disturbances. Article is written in Ukrainian
Kulchytskyy M. I., Kovalenko V. M., Vankovych D. V.
Evaluating the Funds Management Efficiency of the Local Budgets in Ukraine (p. 132 - 137)
The article is concerned with improving the methodological tools for economic-mathematical evaluation of efficiency of the funds management of the local budgets, aimed at formulating specific practice-oriented recommendations on adjusting the financial policy of the administrative-territorial units. Peculiarities of management of the local finances in the conditions of implementing the fiscal decentralization strategy in Ukraine have been analyzed. Topicality of improving the methodological tools for economic-mathematical evaluation has been substantiated in terms of increasing the financial capacities of the local self-government bodies. A new methodological approach to evaluating the funds management efficiency of the local budgets, based on using the methodology of regression analysis, has been proposed. Both the model of dependence of the gross regional product index and the model of dependence of regional human development index from the quota of expenditures for: governance; education; spiritual and physical development; health care; social protection and social security; development of individual economy sectors; housing and communal services, have been considered in order to improve the socio-economic effectiveness in the activities of the local self-government bodies. Article is written in Ukrainian
Bielkina I. A.
An Economic-Mathematical Model of the Production Cycle of an Enterprise of the Industrial Poultry Farming (p. 138 - 143)
The article is aimed at improving the Leslie model of number of the population age groups to simulate the production cycle at the enterprises of poultry farming. Setting this goal relates to an analysis of studies on the activity of enterprises of the industrial poultry farming, which has revealed absence of mathematical models for the production cycle of enterprises producing eggs and poultry meat. The economic-mathematical model offers a system of differential equations, each of which defines a number of birds, located at an appropriate stage of the production cycle at any given time. The proposed model helps to calculate the trajectory of poultry population at each stage of production, under the adopted selection ratios, and it can be useful for both enterprises specialized in production of eggs and smaller farming enterprises of mixed orientation for analytical support of planning process. Direction for further research will be developing a method for determining the functions of young distribution as intended in order to achieve the planned indicators of poultry population together with volume of finished product. Article is written in Ukrainian
Parokinnyi O. A., Yakovenko O. H.
Modeling of Inventory Management in the Budgetary Process of Industrial Enterprise (p. 144 - 150)
The article is concerned with developing a science-based approach to the management of material and technical resources of industrial enterprise and adoption of management decisions on its basis. A two-stage economic-mathematical model of formation of the material and technical resources inventory has been built, the algorithm of its building has been described. This model can be applied to determine the inventory standards of raw materials, finished products and support resources in the budgetary process of enterprise. The calculations for two strategies of the economic entity activities has been accomplished. The differences between these strategies has been analyzed, an optimal plan for activity of enterprise has been selected. Efficiency of this approach and its advantages have been substantiated, the main directions for further research, which consist in building a model of formation of a consolidated budget of enterprise, has been identified taking into consideration the indicated approach to the inventory planning; development of an automated system on the basis of budgeting at industrial enterprise has been grounded. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №12-2015
Babyniuk O. I.
Simulation of Stable Functioning of the Mechanism of Supply and Demand in the Labor Market in Ukraine (p. 127 - 138)
The article is aimed at studying the labor market and the conditions for stable function of the mechanism of supply and demand. A model that has been built for the study purposes uses the mathematical tools of difference equations with Markov coefficients. Using the method of moments equations, stability conditions have been determined in the average of probabilistic characteristics that describe the labor market. A model of structural transformation in the labor market, based on the method of total entropy, has been analyzed. A comparative characterization of results has been accomplished for both the method of total entropy method and the method of moments equations, proposed in the article. It is obtained that the conditions of system stability and the conditions of stationary states in the study of the above methods are the same, but the method proposed in the publication is more convenient and allows to take into account the influence of random factors on the system in a state of uncertainty. It has been determined that stationary mode of functioning of labor market is observed with balanced supply and demand of labor. Prospects for further research in this area is application of the method of moments equations for the study of multidisciplinary economic models of labor market that requires serious mathematical calculations. Article is written in Ukrainian
Ivanov R. V.
A Generalized Mathematical Model of Rational Economic Behavior (p. 139 - 143)
The main purpose of the publication is to build an economical-mathematical model of behavior of economic agent, prone to self-organization. Taking into consideration rationality of economic behavior, a dynamic model has been built, in which as a motivational factor deviation from the valid status towards the desired status has been allocated, which is accompanied by occurrence of a certain value of «desiring...». The model, proposed in the form of a system of partial-derivative equations, is presented as in space of locations so in the space of statuses, providing to explore the socio-economic processes inherent in the postindustrial economy and the knowledge-based economy. At the same time, polar coordinates used in the space of statuses provide to evaluate not only quantitative, but also qualitative indicators. An equation of preservation of overall motivation has been derived as the balance of «coercive» and «compensating» motivations, sum of which remains constant in a stable process (stationary, with the established dynamics, etc.) and without exogenous influence. Article is written in Ukrainian
Martynenko M. V.
Modeling and Forecasting the Development of the System of Organizational Knowledge in the Structure of Vocational Education (p. 144 - 151)
The article's primary focus is on substantiating and building a development model of the system of organizational knowledge in the structure of vocational education of industry workers, as well as application of this model to forecast the development of systems of organizational knowledge related to the industrial economic entities in the city of Kharkiv. Considering the properties inherent to a system of organizational knowledge, that is, an open, dynamic, challenging and self-developing socio-economic system, expediency of application of synergistic approach in modeling and forecasting the development of this system has been substantiated. On the basis of the model, forecasts for development of the organizational knowledge systems for industrial economic entities of the city of Kharkiv has been elaborated. Prospects of the further researches are related to the development of practical recommendations on the directions of influence on the development of organizational knowledge in the structure of vocational education of industry workers. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №1-2016
Hlotov Y. O., Popova O. M.
Analyzing the Operations with Bills by Means of the Table Processor LIBRE CALC (p. 125 - 130)
The article conducts an analysis of the existing methodological framework for assessment of bill, which is one of the most complicated categories of securities. This arises from the variety of functions that a bill can perform during the process of treatment. In this publication, bill refers to securities based on statutory form and containing an unconditional obligation to pay a specified sum within a stipulated time frame, it is also specified that the Ukrainian exchange law is still in a formative stage. Simulations of calculations of bills, which differ in agreements and payers, are considered. The focus of the work is given to simulation of calculations related to common operations with bills, as well as to technology of automation of bills' accounting computation in the Libre Calc environment, using the built-in functions: ACCRINTM(), PRICEDISC(), YIELDDISC(), DISC(), INTRATE(), RECEIVED(). An electronic worksheet in the environment of the table processor LibreOffice Calc has been developed, which is a tool to automate the analysis of accounting operations with bills and may be supplemented and adapted to the analysis of operations in more complex terms. Thus, the analyzed methodological framework of bills and the developed electronic worksheet provide to analyze accounting operations with bills, and to develop a program for their analysis in a high-level language that is useful both in practice and in the educational process. Article is written in Ukrainian
Bludova T. V., Kulyk A. B., Manzhos T. V.
The Relationship between External Investments and Centralized Capital Investments at the Agricultural Enterprise (p. 131 - 137)
The article is aimed at studying the relationship between external investments and centralized capital investments, in particular detecting areas of elasticity of production functions. The relationship between external investments and centralized capital investments at the agricultural enterprise has been considered. The areas of function elasticity, which describes the main production, have been depicted. Depending on the elasticity coefficient, areas has been displayed, where capital investments will be optimal, with the corresponding investment values. The article provides illustrations, confirming the economic properties of elasticity and giving an opportunity to review the economic performance indicators of enterprise (centralized capital investments) that should be considered in building a system of performance indicators of enterprises involved in the agricultural sector. This system should characterize the degree of efficiency of production and provide evaluation of dynamics of economic effect while attracting additional resources. Article is written in Ukrainian
Kozyr-Chepurna M. A.
The Task of Matching Plans of the Adjacent Hierarchical Levels in the System of Strategic Planning of Enterprises Restructuring (p. 138 - 144)
The article is aimed at developing theoretical-methodical provisions and a model of matching plans of the adjacent hierarchical levels in the system of multilevel hierarchical planning of industrial enterprises restructuring on the example of the task of developing a strategic plan on the basis of available strategy for restructuring. It is displayed that the most important conditions for development of a strategic plan, matching with a plan-strategy, include conditions of balance of both plans as to terms of implementation of the activities planned, existing production capabilities and the resources planned to perform related works, as well as availability of classifiers, determining the hierarchies of plans periods of both hierarchical levels; the activities required to achieve the objectives planned; performers of related works. The author substantiates the necessity to consider the development of a strategic plan based on a strategy as a task of matching a strategy and a strategic plan, which allows adjustment of both the strategy parameters and the limits of the allowed strategic plans. Based on a relatively simple model, mathematical staging of such a task has been implemented, possible methods for approximate solution of such a task has been specified. Article is written in Russian
Burennikova N. V., Yarmolenko V. О.
SEE-Controlling on the Basis of Components of Efficiency as a Way to Improve the Force of Complex Systems Functioning: Essence, Methodology (p. 145 - 152)
The article describes methodological approaches to the controlling complex systems on the basis on the author's modeling, based on a characteristic of the category of the force of process, using the category of the efficiency of process as a combination of its scale as quantitative component and the effectiveness as qualitative component. Under the author's SEE-analysis of functioning processes of complex systems is understood analysis of the force of these processes, based on the platform of the author's models and indicators of the scale, as well as effectiveness and efficiency of sub-processes of the processes specified. Consideration of the force in this aspect differs significantly from its interpretation by other authors. An algorithm for implementation of SEE-controlling, based on a certain mechanism that contains outcome indicators of SEE-analysis and instrumentarium, has been proposed; along with known characteristics, they also contain a complex of author's indicators for all components related to efficiency of subprocesses of the system. A matrix of SEE-controlling on the basis of results of SEE-analysis of a process in question has been developed. It has been determined that the proposed methodology makes possible to implement SEE-forecasts (including in the context of the methodology Forsyth). The SEE-controlling methodology is implemented on the example of formation of the gross revenue of an actually existing agricultural enterprise in Ukraine. It is substantiated that the proposed approaches to controlling can be used to research complex systems of different types and hierarchical levels. Article is written in Ukrainian
Vasylchuk I. P.
Financial Determinants of Effectiveness of the Corporate Social Activity of Companies in Ukraine: Methods and Results of an Empirical Study (p. 153 - 162)
A successful implementation of the CSA depends on solving two main tasks: 1) creation of adequate measuring tools for effectiveness of CSA, which can serve as indicators of both formation of CSR policies and the system for remuneration of managers; 2) identifying financial determinants of effectiveness of CSA, which could form basis for the development of a financial security system. To this end, a methodology for empirical researching the prerequisites and determinants in terms of development of financial system to ensure sustainable development of the Ukrainian corporations using descriptive and econometric analysis has been proposed. An author's own index of CSA effectiveness (index of sustainable development of corporations) has been developed, a methodology of its compilation has been suggested. To analyze the progress of companies in the CSA a number of criteria has been developed, which form the basis of the index. To identify financial determinants of CSA effectiveness the following indicators has been proposed: net revenues from product sales, operating profit, return on assets (ROA), return on equity (ROЕ), net cash flow, annual return on shares, a five-year volatility of shares, financial leverage. On the basis of an analysis of sample multitude of domestic corporations, a low level of disclosure on CSA in various aspects of sustainable development as well as poor quality of non-financial reporting by domestic companies has been revealed. Article is written in Ukrainian
Trostianska K. M.
Conceptual Foundations for Modeling the Evaluation and Management of Reputational Risk in Case of Intermediary Enterprise (p. 163 - 168)
The available theoretical-methodological, economic-mathematical instrumentarium does not allow for adequate support for managerial decisions to minimize reputational risk of intermediary enterprises. In order to achieve consistency and continuity in the process of management of reputational risk, it is necessary to build a set of economic-mathematical models, providing in conditions of information ambiguity and uncertainty of events to evaluate by means of objective methods the level of reputational risk together with the influence of individual factors, to conduct simulation of various stress scenarios and assess the impact of implementation of certain administrative decisions. The article is aimed at developing conceptual foundations for modeling the evaluation and management of reputational risk in case of intermediary enterprise. The main goal of modeling have been outlined; features of the subject area of research, which contribute to the application of modeling tools, have been determined; sequence of the modeling process has been determined and the choice of methods, composing the theoretical-methodological basis of modeling the assessment and management of reputational risk has been substantiated. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №2-2016
Trostianska K. M.
Developing Scenarios of Reputational Risk Management for Intermediary Enterprise (p. 144 - 148)
Despite a large number of practical recommendations how to reduce reputational risk, available in the publications, the issue of possibility, nature and efficiency of control actions, as well as the impact of their practical implementation remains open. To substantiate decisions on the management of reputational risk for intermediary enterprise, it is necessary to develop related scenarios, this consideration has become the purpose of the article. Possibility of applying cognitive methodology for the elaboration of reputational risk management scenarios has been substantiated and sequence of scenario development has been determined. When developing scenarios of reputational risk management, direction board of an intermediary enterprise should take account of the current status of the reputation risk components, value of the unmanaged factors (goodwill, brand awareness) as achievements of the enterprise, existing resource constraints, as well as management targets (profit, financial sustainability). As result of cognitive modeling, some scenarios of reputational risk management have been developed for their further implementation in the management practice of an operating intermediary enterprise. Article is written in Ukrainian
Vinichenko O. M.
Methods for Determining the Degree of Importance and Stability of Performance Criteria in the System for Control of Socio-Economic Development on the Basis of ABC-Analysis and XYZ-Analysis (p. 149 - 159)
The article suggests methods for determining the degree of importance and frequency of use of performance criteria in the system for control of socio-economic development on the basis of ABC-analysis and XYZ-analysis. Such an approach is stipulated by the need to process large lists of performance criteria in terms of a system of control. The suggested methods enclose eight sequential stages. According to results of the study, the following methods have been further developed: ABC-analysis as a method for determining importance of performance criteria for each type of control of socio-economic development of enterprise and XYZ-analysis as a method for determining stability of using performance criteria for each type of control of socio-economic development of enterprise; a matrix of dependence of importance of control types from the stability of its implementation has been proposed. Article is written in Ukrainian
Halitsyn V. K., Suslov O. P., Galitsyna O. V.
Modeling of a Mechanism for Project Management (p. 160 - 164)
The article is aimed at developing a conceptual framework for managing organizational projects and modeling their mechanism in case of mixed financing. As result of an analysis of publications on project management issues, they have been grouped by the following directions: calendar-network planning and management, methodology of project management, project management mechanisms as organizational procedures for managerial decision-making, information systems of project management. On the basis of the theory of control of organizational systems, a project management concept has been explicated, in particular, attributes of a project have been provided; its objectives, tasks, structure, management process and its mechanism have been determined; the basic mechanisms of management of organizational projects have been described; a modeling of a mixed mechanism for financing an organizational project in case of linear and nonlinear types of function of income of its performers has been carried out. Article is written in Ukrainian
Skrynkovskyy R. M., Semchuk Z. V., Vizniak Y. Y., Horichko K. I.
Diagnostics of Financial Condition of Enterprise with the Aim of Both Preventing Crisis and Bankruptcy Identification (p. 165 - 172)
The article discloses the essence of concept of «diagnostics of financial condition of enterprise with the aim of both preventing crisis and bankruptcy identification», which should be understood as process of evaluating the present financial status of enterprise, the dynamics of change of this status, as well as future prospects by means of a detailed analysis of a specific set of business indicators for effective managerial decision-making, aimed at both crisis prevention and identifying causes of bankruptcy development. It has been found that key business indicators in a system for diagnostics of enterprise's financial condition with the aim of both preventing crisis and bankruptcy identification are: 1) the indicator of profitability; 2) the indicator of liquidity; 3) the indicator of solvency; 4) the indicator of financial independence; 5) the indicator of business activity. Article is written in Ukrainian
Melnikov V. V.
Modeling the Processes of Supporting Decision-Making in the Innovative Clusters (p. 172 - 177)
The article is aimed at studying the modeling the processes of supporting decision-making in the innovative clusters. In order to study the processes of supporting decision-making in the innovative clusters along with conducting model experiments it is advisable to use game-theoretic models, because corporate infrastructure of innovation cluster is characterized by availability of a distributed control, while participants would implement their activities in situations of conflict and uncertainty. It has been revealed that some mathematical models solve similar challenges. Modeling the processes of supporting decision-making in the innovative clusters should occur at four levels: public; regional; level of innovation cluster (facilitator); level of participant in the cluster. For modeling the processes of supporting decision-making in the innovative clusters, evident advantages of agent-oriented approach are: reduction of time for solving problems, reducing the amount of transmitted data by means of transfer of the higher-level partial solutions to the other agents; shortening the time for agreeing terms and conditions as to development, sale and introduction of innovative products. Prospects for further research in this area is development of an agent model for processes of supporting decision-making in the innovative clusters as well as its computer-based testing. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №3-2016
Didyk A. M.
An Assessment of Priority in the Investing in Technological Processes, Considering the Parameter of Competitive Adaptibility of Technologies (p. 79 - 85)
The article is aimed at developing a method for assessing the priority in the investing in technological processes of enterprises. This method differs from the existing through considering (in terms of multi-criteria approach together with using membership functions in the term sets) the parameter of competitive adaptibility of technologies, which reflects their ability to improve the competitive position of enterprise in the market in the short terms and acquire competitive advantage regardless of the scale of investment projects. The main stages of assessing the priority in the investing in technological processes of enterprises have been provided, making use of fuzzy logic instrumentarium. Prospects for further researches on the topic should be contained in identifying the resource constraints in solving multi-criteria task of assessing priority in the investment in technological processes, taking into account the parameter of competitive adaptibility of technologies. Article is written in Ukrainian
Kyriy V. V., Kozel N. B., Klymko O. G.
Application of Methods for Verbal Analysis of Decisions in the Process of Formation of Project Team Structure (p. 85 - 91)
The article is aimed at developing a model for the process of formation of project team to determine the functional and role-based composition in accordance with stages of the project life cycle. Contemporary approaches to the concept of «project team» have been analyzed, the main components of its definition have been identified. The existing approaches to formation of project team are mostly focused on an optimal placement of human resources, allocated for the implementation of project, by both operations and project phases. Based on the method of verbal analysis of data ORGKLAS, a model for formation of functional and role-based structure of project team has been proposed. Using multi-criteria for selecting a role for the project, a structural composition of the project team is being formed on the basis of expert knowledge, which allows to consider the importance of a functional role at each stage of the project life cycle. Results of the formation of functional and role-based composition of team project for the PAT «Kharkivska biskvitna fabrika» have been provided. Article is written in Russian
Ilchenko N. B.
Development of Dynamic Model for Management of Supply Chains for Automobile Components in the Ukrainian Market (p. 92 - 98)
The article defines scientific approaches to establishing supply chains for automobile components in the Ukrainian market. Feasibility of introducing new conceptual approaches to organization of the logistics activities by distributors in the market for automobile components has been proved. The main factors and criteria for selecting distributors in the specified market have been identified. Competitiveness of companies «AD-Ukraina» and «Elit-Ukraina», which are trading automobile components in the Ukrainian market, has been evaluated. A multidimensional dynamic model for logistics services in terms of supply chain in the market of automobile components has been proposed. A functional dependency of qualities that impact sales of the trade-intermediary companies in the supply chain for automobile components has been defined. The need to solve the challenges of minimizing functions, taking into consideration the system of restrictions, has been proved. In the future, the author will evaluate responsibility of the supply chain participants and determine functional dependence of all participants in the supply chain. Article is written in Ukrainian
Tymchenko I. P.
Conceptual Foundations of Formation of the Concept of «Organizational Development» (p. 99 - 107)
The article is aimed at studying the theoretical approaches to defining the concept of «organizational development», since the approaches, which are used to understand its basic components, differ from each other. Scientists allocate such components as: educational, social, economic, psychological. However, there is not a single approach to understanding organizational development that integrates all functional elements in order to increase the efficiency of enterprises' development. Relevance to improve methods for morphological analysis, where such methods for multi-criteria evaluation as TOPSIS and SAST are used, has been substantiated. In the analysis process has been suggested that the criteria conforming with the State standards are used to the definitions. As result of the conducted morphological analysis, organizational development has been defined as a comprehensive, strategic-oriented process aimed at improving the efficiency of enterprises' functioning through changes in strategy, structure, processes and culture, using knowledge of economic, social and psychological sciences in the context of the VUCA world. Article is written in Ukrainian
Sokolovska Z. M., Yatsenko N. V.
Modeling the Activities of Restaurant Industry Entities (p. 108 - 116)
The article is concerned with considering possibilities of applying the system dynamic approach in modeling activities of standard entity of restaurant industry. On summarizing works by several specialists, problems of national restaurant industry have been determined. The article establishes the need for introduction of flexible methods of managing entities of restaurant business on the basis of modeling their activities. As a mathematical apparatus for substantiating managerial decision-making, the system dynamic approach of simulation modeling has been proposed. A model for functioning of a standard enterprise of restaurant industry, powered by Ithink software platform, has been developed. The framed structure of the model as well as fragments of streaming graphs of its blocks have been provided. The model's performance is represented by results of simulation experiments on the example of one of facilities of the «GoodFood» restaurant chain. Simulation experiments on the model are directed towards identifying both «bottlenecks» and the overall dynamics of the research object. Training nature of the model provides for targeted model simulations according to different scenarios. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №4-2016
Tkachenko S. A.
Peculiarities in Solving Tasks of the Subsystem for Comparative Economic Monitoring in the Systems for Strategic Regulation of Regional Structures and Territorial Organization of the Entities Pertaining to the Sphere (p. 101 - 107)
The article implements the tasks of the comparative evaluation of the performance by intra-entity production units in the systems for strategic regulation of regional structure and territorial organization of the entities pertaining to the sphere. Implementation of comparative evaluation of the results of production-economic activity by units, using an econometric model, provides for: objectively setting criteria for evaluation of activity of structural subdivisions of enterprise (association) aimed at both the main and the auxiliary production; reducing the time spent on summing up the results of economic activity; eliminating the possibility of getting erroneous results of comparison; receiving material for comparative monitoring of units' activities across the entire range of economic indicators. Among the prospects for further research in this direction, there is the issue related to the peculiarities of solving the the retrospective (subsequent) tasks of economic monitoring in the functionally developed systems for strategic regulating the regional structure and territorial organization of the entities pertaining to the sphere. Article is written in Russian
Kovalchuk O. Y., Strelbitska N. Y., Sorokivska R. B.
A Factorial Analysis of the Shadow Economy of the EU Member States. (p. 108 - 114)
The article considers essence of shadow economy together with milestones in the studying this phenomenon. To identify the main factors influencing changes to the levels of the shadow economy coefficient (SE, in % of GDP) in the software environment of the product STATISTICA, a factorial analysis of the dependence of SE from 29 indicators for the EU Member States for the period of 2005-2014 has been conducted. The findings indicate, as for the dependent variable «shadow economy», a dense feedback with a number of factors considered, in particular with the human development index, the rule of law, the global innovation index, GNI per capita and GDP per capita. In addition, a number of factors are closely interlinked, which gives grounds to conclude the presence of multicollinearity. To allocate the factors that have a significant impact on the value of the shadow economy coefficient as to the EU Member States, the method of principal components was applied. As result of the conducted analysis, two key factors has been allocated and a factorial model of dependence on the selected factors has been built. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №5-2016
Tkachenko M. O.
The Theoretical-Methodical Approach to the Restructuring a System for Management of Process of Innovation Development of Industrial Enterprise (p. 86 - 92)
The article is concerned with developing a methodical approach to forecasting results of introduction of a complex of management technologies and financial tools in terms of restructuring a system for management of innovative development of enterprise. Theoretical foundations and main stages of management of innovative development of enterprise on the basis of restructuring have been considered, the main principles of the methodical provision of the forecasting results of restructuring a system for management of innovative development of enterprise have been provided. The results of forecasting the changes of positioning in matrix and economic effect from the introduction of complex of management technologies, as well as financial-economic instrumentarium for restructuring a system for management of innovative development for the enterprises of the Kharkiv region have been demonstrated. Article is written in Ukrainian
Korepanov G. S.
Developing the System of Statistical Indicators of Investment Attractiveness of Ukrainian Regions (p. 92 - 98)
The article is aimed at developing a system of statistical indicators of investment attractiveness of Ukrainian regions, which would provide for quantitative characteristics of the qualitative changes, which characterize the investment attractiveness of Ukrainian regions. A block diagram of the indicators of investment attractiveness of Ukrainian regions, consisting of five blocks, has been built. In order to substantiate inclusion of certain indicators in the composition of the general system of statistical indicators of investment attractiveness of Ukrainian regions, both the nature and the specifics of calculating the indicators in use have been considered in detail. With a view to determine the internal consistency of the selected statistical indicators, an analysis of correlations between them was conducted. As a result of applying the method of canonical correlation to identify a minimum set of economic indicators that have the greatest impact on the volume of foreign direct and capital investments in the regions of Ukraine, has been found that almost all of the selected indicators have a significant impact on the resulting signs, while the greatest impact on the volume of the foreign direct and capital investments among the totality of indicators for development of the national economy cause the indicators of market attractiveness. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №6-2016
Valiullina Z. V.
The Factors of Influence on the Information Security Process in the Corporate Economy (p. 101 - 105)
The article is aimed at studying of the factors that have the most significant impact on the process of ensuring the information security in the corporate economy. To determine these factors, the correlative-regression analysis method has been used. Trends in the cyber crime and its consequences in the current conditions of transformation of the global economy have been analyzed. Results of correlative-regression analysis of personal data, used to build an economical-mathematical model, have been presented. Influence of the factors on the rate of information security of corporations has been determined, the relationships between the selected factor values that impact both the quality and the efficiency of the information security in the corporate economy have been identified. On the basis of results of both the study and the correlation analysis, a linear correlative-regression model has been built, which most precisely and accurately reflects the process of ensuring the information security in the corporate economy. The practical significance of the built correlative-regression model consists in evaluation and opportunity to prevent and protect the corporation against cyber attacks. Article is written in Ukrainian
Kotsyuba O. S.
Variance Analysis in the Risk Assessments Based on the Alternative Methods Within the Fuzzy Multiple Methodology (p. 106 - 112)
The article is concerned with analyzing the differences between risk assessments based on the alternative methods within the fuzzy multiple methodology. The study is restricted with the component (aspect) of the risk measure as degree of possibility of that the actual value of the criterion of attractiveness (efficiency) of the considered economic activity or event will not match some specified (normative) level. In the system of fuzzy multiple approach this direction is represented by the three main methods: based on the theoretical-probabilistic analogy and on the basis of the intervallic by the levels of membership methodology «with» and «without» weighing (both the respectively modified and the original Nedosekin-Voronov method). By means of the function of divergences, formulated by the author, a comparative analysis of the indicated methods for estimating the magnitude of risk has been carried out. It has been found that the alternative risk assessments within some scale of risk gradations can conflict between themselves. The received results serve as a theoretical basis for the responsible and meaningful approach to orientation on a method of risk measuring when preparing and adopting managerial decisions in a fuzzy data situation. Further research efforts concerning the issue, considered in this publication, should be directed to formation of a coherent methodology for a quantitative risk analysis within terms of the fuzzy multiple approach. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №7-2016
Magomedov M. S.
The Theoretical-Methodological Support of the Formation of a Tool for the System for Adaptive Management of the Coke Quality (p. 40 - 46)
The article is aimed at definition of the theoretical-methodical foundations in terms of formation of a tool for the system for adaptive management of the coke quality in the conditions of both the external and the internal unstable environment. The current status of development of both the metallurgical and the coke production in Ukraine has been analyzed. The actuality has been substantiated and the cybernetic-logistic approach to the tool building in the adaptive system for quality management of coke production has been proposed. This approach is based on the use of six control paths by means of which researches on features of the raw materials base, technology of coke production, the post-stove processing of coke, as well as operational management of a coke-chemical enterprise and the logistics supply with coal by brands and suppliers is carried out. It has been suggested to conduct the operational management by using the linear programming tasks, which are solved by means of the standard Microsoft Excel 2003 software. Article is written in Ukrainian
Drozd A. O., Kapustian V. O.
A General Model of Pricing of Loan and Deposit Products by Commercial Bank Subject to Stochastic Lag In Returning Loans (p. 47 - 51)
The article considers the issue of accounting for the possible delays in returning loans within the process of pricing the loan and deposit products of commercial bank. According to the complexity of this task, the literature commonly uses the more general indicator – credit risk, which does not give sufficient detail to account for the influence of lag when returning loans. Thus a general model has been built, which takes account of stochastic lag in returning loans and deposits. To this end, a number of model assumptions has been formulated, the mechanisms of return of loans and deposits have been disclosed and the choice of formula writing for them has been substantiated. Using such incoming and outgoing flows, based on the flow model, a general model for commercial bank has been proposed that provides to: consider the stochastic lag when returning loans and deposits; choose different demand functions for loans and deposit offerings; conduct simulations with a fixed delay (as a special case) and with a random delay; use different pricing criteria; find the best credit and deposit rates subject to lag in returning loans by means of numerical simulation. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №8-2016
Kniaz S. V., Komarnytska N. M.
Analytical and Process Model of Monitoring the System for Management of Innovation Activity of Enterprises (p. 69 - 74)
The carried out research has shown that the existing monitoring systems at enterprises are unable to effectively fulfil the set tasks. Both essence and features of the new model of monitoring the system for management of innovative activity of enterprises have been considered. A hierarchical ordering of the coefficients characterizing this management system has been conducted. Based on the identification of the metric and topological spaces, a spatial model of the relationships between these factors has been built. An analytical and process model of monitoring the system for management of innovation activity through the prism of topological and metric spaces has been developed. This model will enable managers of machine-building enterprises to assess promptly the current state of the system for management of innovative activity of enterprise and take regulatory decisions as to the necessary improvements. Article is written in Ukrainian
Havlovska N. I.
Formation of Frame Model of a Mechanism for Economic Security of Foreign Economic Activity of Enterprise (p. 75 - 81)
The article presents the hypothesis, the sense of which is that in order to ensure the economic security of subject of foreign economic activity (FEA) there is a need to develop an effective mechanism for the economic security of the FEA of enterprise (MESFEAE). It is proved that such a mechanism has a dual nature. It has been determined that both cognitive and managerial nature of MESFEAE complement rather than exclude each other in the process of functioning of such a mechanism. It has been proved that in the process of developing a MESFEAE and its implementation in the enterprise management system there are three key tasks: formation of the MESFEAE content; implementation of a MESFEAE in the enterprise management system; simulation of operation of the MESFEAE in the enterprise management system. It is proposed to form the contents of MESFEAE by using a frame model because it appears to be very flexible as to the criterion that reflects the reality and can be easily used in both prescriptive and descriptive modes. The structure of frame model of a mechanism for economic security of the FEA of enterprise has been formed. Article is written in Ukrainian
Shemayev V. V., Afanasieva L. M.
Determining the Optimal Cost of Infrastructure Construction (on Example of the Auto-Road Odesa – Reni) (p. 82 - 87)
The article provides setting and solving the optimization task for determining the optimal cost of infrastructure construction (on example of the auto-road Odesa – Reni). In order to select the best proposals from the point of view of both partners in public-private partnership (PPP), using linear programming techniques (matrix games) has been suggested. A payment matrix has been provided, consisting of variants of implementation of the project with predominance of interests of the private partner and with implementation of interests of the State as the second party; terms of project implementation depending on the factor proportion (land, construction, road pavement, financing) in the cost terms. Solving the task by means of Excel software, the price of the game, i.e. the optimal value of the project, has been achieved. The need for implementation of the project with predominance of interests of the private partner has been proved mathematically. The second phase of solving the optimization task showed a combination of conditions, which should be preferred when implementing the project. Prospects for further research in this direction will be studying relationships between the partners of PPP using antagonistic games, as well as analyzing options for achieving certain socio-economic objectives of the PPP. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №9-2016
Chernetska O. V.
The Model Instrumentarium for Evaluating Investment Attractiveness of Enterprise in Terms of the Value-Oriented Management (p. 92 - 99)
In the article international experience in business and enterprise valuation, by using the value-oriented instrumentarium, is studied. Using international experience and taking account of specificity of the machine-building industry of Ukraine, two value-oriented management models of investment attractiveness of enterprises have been developed. The actuality and practicality of the developed management models has been substantiated. The conclusion has been made that integrated management of the proposed methodical instrumentarium for evaluating investment attractiveness of enterprise will essentially enhance the grade of informativeness and reliability of the results received, will ensure efficiency of the management process and will serve as a basis for further research and development in this direction. Article is written in Ukrainian
Reshetnyak O. I., Lobodin R. O.
The Methods of Multidimensional Comparative Analysis in Evaluating Competitiveness of Enterprise (p. 100 - 105)
The article is aimed at analyzing existing methods of multidimensional comparative analysis and the ability to apply them to evaluate competitiveness of Ukrainian enterprises in the market for stationery. The article provides a characteristic, defines spheres of application, advantages and disadvantages of the main methods of comparative and integrated evaluation, namely: the method of summation of the values of all parameters, the sum of rankings method, the total scoring method, the distance method, and the taxonometric method. It has been determined that the main condition for applicability of methods for the comparative integrated evaluating the competitiveness of enterprises is an agreement on possible proportionality of indicators, which are diverse in their nature. For all analyzed methods a single drawback was identified, associated with the inability of correspondence between the quantitative and the qualitative evaluation. An evaluation of the level of competitiveness in the market for stationery of Ukraine has been made. Article is written in Russian
Zaloznova Y. S., Trushkina N. V.
Methodical Approaches to Forecasting the Indicators of Marketing Activities of Coal-Mining Enterprises (p. 105 - 111)
The article is concerned with developing a forecast for core indicators of the marketing activity of coal-mining enterprises using several methods: the average growth rate, trend extrapolation, autoregression, extrapolation of average, and «naive models». Expedience of the use of methods of the average growth rate, trend extrapolation and autoregression for forecasting the development of indicators of marketing activity has been substantiated. This is stipulated by the prognostic values of the indicators obtained by using these methods, which are more accurate and reliable compared to methods «na?ve models» and extrapolation of average. Priorities for enhancing the efficiency of organization of marketing activities of coal-mining enterprises in the conditions of unstable demand for coal have been determined. Prospect for further research in this area is developing proposals on forming marketing chains as an effective form of partnership for the participants of coal market. Article is written in Ukrainian
Koval T. O., Yakhkind V. P.
The Methodical Foundations of Estimating the Strategic Competitive Positions in Developing the Marketing Potential of Enterprise (p. 112 - 118)
The article analyzes the methodical foundations of estimating the strategic competitive positions in developing the marketing potential of enterprise. The considered system of local estimates provides to take into account the influence of key factors on the competitive position of enterprise. A generalization of the estimated competitive positions of enterprise by the specified characteristics as a whole can improve validity of the choice of strategy of developing the marketing potential of enterprise for the studied market as a system of actions and measures to enhance the competitive advantages of enterprise, as well as strengthening its competitiveness. Article is written in Ukrainian
Mnykh O. B.
The Marketing and Regression Analysis of Trends in the Sector Development and Performance of Railway Transport Enterprises in the Stage of Implementing the New Tariff Policy by the PJSC «Ukrzaliznytsya» (p. 119 - 125)
The article is concerned with building trend models that illustrate the intensity of changes in the field of railway transport and in the activities of PJSC «Ukrzaliznytsya», as well as studying interdependence of marketing and financial-economic activity of enterprises in conditions of reforming the system of government procurement and quality changes in the process of establishing tariffs for rail freight to achieve the planned growth synergies in the macro- and microeconomics of railway transport. Both quantitative and qualitative characteristics of the causes for changes in the intensity of traffic on various segments of the railway transport for 2001-2015 have been provided. Both financial and marketing performance evaluation of results of activity of the State territorial-industry association «Pivdenno-Zakhidna zaliznytsya» have been conducted. The need for introduction in the practice of PJSC «Ukrzaliznytsya» competitive approach when implementing tariffs for rail freight has been proved. It has been substantiated that development of the industry sector together with the enterprises of railway transport at the competitive local and international markets requires practical application of the new management philosophy. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №10-2016
Ryabenko А. Е., Tereschenko E. V.
The 3-Criterion Model of Formation of Task Forces (p. 129 - 134)
The article is concerned with developing mathematical methods for solving the problem of formation of task forces, taking into consideration psychological compatibility. The authors have proposed the mathematical model of formation of task forces, consisting of two members, taking into consideration psychological compatibility in form of the 3-criterion task (MINSUM criterion, MINMAX criterion, and the criterion of minimizing the amount of «bottlenecks») building a perfect matching, using the weighted full graph. Undecidability of a multicriterion task with such a set of criteria while using the algorithm linear convolution of criteria has been proved for the first time. The example, demonstrating the basic stages of the task set using the developed mathematical model, has been considered in detail: building the perfect matching, building the set of Pareto multiple optimal solutions, applying the algorithm of linear convolution of criteria. The developed mathematical model provides an instrument for efficient allocation of options for task forces with the most psychologically compatible participators. Article is written in Russian
Kushnir O. S.
Implementing a Mathematical Model for Determining the Level of Operational Risk of Credit Institution (p. 135 - 143)
The article is concerned with building and testing a mathematical model to assess the operational risk of bank. In order to determine the level of operational risk of commercial bank, a technique based on the combination of fuzzy-multiple and probabilistic (bayesian) approaches has been proposed. In terms of the proposed technique, key factors of occurrence of operational risk of credit institution have been determined and substantiated. The model implementation has been materialized on the example of one of the Ukrainian banks. The developed model is universal and can be used for calculating operational risks in any given credit institution. Calculations for this model can be conducted by both a risks manager and the committee for supervision of banking risks. Article is written in Ukrainian
Kotsyuba O. S.
Choosing the Best Investment Project in a Situation of Uncertainty of Initial Data (p. 144 - 149)
The article is aimed at developing an instrumentarium for the task of choosing the best investment project in a situation where the initial quantity parameters of the available investment alternatives are described with interval estimates. In the part of accounting the risk factor caused by the interval uncertainty of initial data, the study is limited by the component of risk measure as degree of result variability. In this context, the corresponding interval versions of the absolute risk indicators were provided: range of variation, semi-range of variation, semi-deviation. After that the interval versions of the risk indicators in relative terms were considered: coefficient of range of variation, coefficient of semi-range of variation, and coefficient of semi-deviation. Based on relevant groundwork within the terms of theoretical probabilistic and fuzzy-multiple methodologies, modifications of the indicated coefficients have been formulated. On the basis of the modified coefficient of semi-range of variation, a model of choosing the optimal investment project out of the multitude of alternatives has been formulated for the interval setting of task. Using the example for conditional calculation, a testing of the proposed model was carried out, which demonstrated its practical viability. Article is written in Ukrainian
Lapshyn V. I.
Forecasting the Development of Entrepreneurial Activities in Ukraine (p. 150 - 154)
The article is concerned with economic-mathematical modeling the linear and non-linear dynamics of a number of enterprises of various sizes in Ukraine, studying the possibilities for effective use of extrapolation method for the short-term forecasting the dynamics of economic processes. The linear dynamic model is based on differential equation of first order in time with the right part, which is the product of the number of enterprises and function of time. On its basis, a forecasting the dynamics of small, medium and large enterprises in Ukraine in the first three months of 2016 has been carried out. The non-linear model displays the competition of medium and large with small enterprises in Ukraine. The results of the study based on the linear model are necessary to increase the statistics of comparing and determining the accordance of the received forecast data with the actual data in order to substantiate the short-term forecasting dynamics of economic processes. The non-linear model identified resistance of the system of enterprises interaction in conditions of competition, i.e. the poor state of the economy will remain unchanged without innovative actions. Article is written in Ukrainian
Burtnyak I. V., Malytska H. P.
A Systematic Approach to the Evaluation of Options Based on the CEV-Model (p. 155 - 159)
The article is concerned with studying the derivative assets, using tools for spectral analysis, as well as of the singular and regular perturbation theory. Using the risk-neutral valuation, we obtain the Cauchy task, allowing to calculate an approximate price of derivative assets and their volatility based on a diffusion equation. In the overall diffusion we add two quickly and slowly changing factors of the nonlocal volatility to obtain a model with the multivariate stochastic volatility. Combining the methods of spectral theory of singular and regular perturbations, one can calculate the price of derivative assets as degradation by native functions and the own values of linear operators and solution of the Poisson equation. Prospects for further research in this direction will be improvement of spectral theory and dissemination of the results of the publication on the cases when the equation, from which the eigenvalues are found, has no discrete spectrum, as well as when the stochastic volatility depends on four or more disparate factors that are present in the stock markets. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №11-2016
Reshetnyak O. I.
Modeling the Optimal Investment Portfolio for a Non-State Pension Fund (p. 105 - 110)
The article is aimed at elaborating recommendations directed towards forming the optimal investment portfolio for a non-State pension fund, in accordance with the criterion of the minimum level of risk, determined on the basis of the fuzzy sets theory instrumentarium. A method for evaluating the risk of investing in securities has been proposed, which makes allowance only for the left-hand risks based on fuzzy sets, and models for estimation of the level of risk. Finding the optimal structure of investment portfolio is recommended to reduce down to solving a mathematical task of linear programming, where the target function will be minimizing the portfolio risk depending on its structure and the system of the limits established, in accordance with the directions of investment defined for the portfolio of a private pension fund. Characterizing the proposed model can be specified, that restrictions are comprised of the legally established types of financial tools and the availability of investment limit, while the target function minimizes the risk level determined on the basis of fuzzy sets. Article is written in Ukrainian
Ivanov R. V.
The Mathematical Model of the Economic Conduct of a Household in the Conditions of the Steady Action of the Exogenous Factors (p. 111 - 115)
The publication has the primary aim of building an economical-mathematical model of conduct of an economic entity, prone to self-organization, in the process of interaction with the established external factors. The proposed model is considered in the space of conditions in the form of a linear combination of functions of movement of the economic dipole and a uniform material flow. On examining the model, dependence of size of the «stability field» that determines the amount of resources required for ensuring the viability of the economic entity from the parameters of both the internal and the external flows has been determined. It has been determined that the economic entity is motivated to resist the external factors rather than to mantain the equilibrium. Article is written in Ukrainian
Piskunova O. V., Osypova O. I.
The Convergence of Profitable Groups of Households by the Consumption of Food Products as a Condition for Strengthening the Food Security (p. 116 - 123)
The article analyzes the economic affordability of foods for various profitable segments of the population, and studies the dynamics of differentiation of consumption of the basic food products in the households with different monetary income. In order to analyze the economic affordability of foods to the households of different profitable groups as one of the key indicators of food security, coefficients of elasticity of volumes of food consumption have been calculated by the revenues and costs. For studying the dynamics of differentiation of the food consumption in households with different cash income, indicators of both the ?- and the ?-convergence have been calculated. According to the results of the calculations has been found that for the period from 2000 to 2015, for all groups of the basic food items, the phenomenon of convergence can be observed, i.e. reducing the differentiation of their consumption volumes over time in the households with different monetary income, which has a positive impact on enhancing the food security in the country. Article is written in Ukrainian
Shchepak V. V.
The Economic Model of the System for Monitoring Lands (p. 124 - 128)
This article considers various views on the features of monitoring lands. Two attributes of the system for monitoring lands have been allocated. The first is socio-economic in nature, the second is characterized by organizational activities for conducting the observations of lands. The economic attribute of the system for monitoring lands has been considered. The following system components have been allocated: social subsystem (authorities for public administration and self-government), economic (business structures) and the Land Fund as the monitoring object. An economic model of the system for monitoring lands has been developed on the basis of using the graph model, where the vertices are system components and the ribs are relationships. The model is based on the structure, resources and efficiency of functioning of system. In describing the model the author uses the functions that characterize the economic parameters of the components and their interrelationships. The proposed economic model of the system for monitoring lands shows the interdependence of its components and describes the communication parameters. Prospect for further research is an in-depth study of the interaction between components of the system, with a view to ensure the efficient organization of monitoring lands. Article is written in Russian
Gankina M. S.
Using the Survival Tables Method in Studying the Status of Sanatorium in Ukraine (p. 128 - 133)
The article is aimed at studying the efficiency of the recreational activities of sanatoriums of Ukraine on example of the sanatorium «Chervona Kalyna» (village Zhobrin of the Rivne region), using the survival tables method. As result of the carried out analysis of impact of the recreational activities of the indicated institution has become evident that the core functions of the sanatorium include: resumption, strengthening, and maintaining the health of patients. In addition, as a result of the carried out empirical research, we have found that in patients of the indicated sanatorium the treatment efficiency declares itself most often on the 11st day after the start of treatment. And the first signs of healing can be seen already on the 5th day of stay in the sanatorium. Also a natural regularity is the fact that the longer a patient is being treated in the sanatorium, the more efficient the treatment is, which is expressed in the improved status of health. However, we came to the conclusion that, in order to provide efficiency of the recreational activity of the sanatorium, patient must be treated in it for at least 14 days. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №12-2016
Ivanov R. V.
The Mathematical Model of the Economic Behaviour of Household in Terms of the Increasing Impact of Negative Exogenous Factors (p. 83 - 87)
The main aim of the publication is to build the economical-mathematical models of behavior strategies of economic agent, prone to self-organization, in the process of interaction with the negative external factors when they become strengthened. The proposed strategies and their models are based on the cost-income balance equation that takes into consideration both the quantitative and qualitative characteristics. The built models are considered in the state space, in the form of linear combinations of functions of movement of the uniform material flow and different spatial combinations of the economic sources (sink points). Study on the model has provided to define dependence of the size and shape of the «area of stability» that determines the amount of resources required for viability of the economic agent, both from internal and external flow parameters and the chosen strategy. It has been found that as the criterion of efficiency of the applied strategy can serve the value of the «coefficient of resistance» against the external factors, reduction of which, along with keeping the size of «area of stability», corresponds to the direction to optimization. Article is written in Ukrainian
Pushkar O. I., Vilkhivska O. V.
Estimating the Cost of Development of the E-Business Technologies at Enterprise (p. 88 - 94)
The article considers issues of estimating the cost, development, and implementation of the e-business technologies at a machine-building enterprise. An analysis of the current methods and models for estimation of software cost has been carried out. Stages of implementation have been defined, basics of designing a time plan for developing software product have been described, and estimates for efficiency of implementation of the e-business technologies have been presented. Comparative and cost approaches can be used to estimate implementation of the e-business technologies. The proposed recommendations will provide to estimate the cost of developing and introducing the e-business technologies at the machine-building enterprises of Ukraine, and to create a database of the information groundwork to calculate the cost of these technologies. Article is written in Ukrainian
Andreishyna N. В., Kharin S. A.
The Mathematical Modeling within Terms of the System for Monitoring the Sustainable Development of Region (p. 95 - 100)
The article substantiates the necessity of introducing a system for monitoring the socio-ecological-economic processes at the regional level. Basis of the system are the formalized algorithms, which in turn are based on the mathematical models. Thus regional authorities will be able to continuously monitor the population’s needs, identify trends in the development of region, implement a program of actions, aimed at overcoming the negative phenomena in ecology, economy, and social sphere. A conceptual framework of organization of a system for monitoring the sustainable development of region has been proposed, which consists of the following successive stages: formation of a statistical database of development indicators as to region, analysis and formation of indicators for sustainable development of region, modeling and forecasting the indicators, development of recommendations on the use of the models built aimed at managing region, based on the concept of sustainable development. On example of city of Zhovti Vody, the mathematical model of mutual influence of indicators of the sustainable development has been built. The model objectively reflects the influence of socio-economic indicators on the ecological status of the city and can be applied to forecast the amount of pollutants. Article is written in Ukrainian
Sazonets О. M., Kachan O. I.
Studying the Information Security Threats to Ukrainian Enterprises by Using Variance Analysis (p. 101 - 108)
The article is aimed at studying the information security of enterprises of Ukraine by using variance analysis. Along with the expansion of types of information activities in the corporate environment, the number of kinds of protection from the information danger is growing on. Both the concept and the basic categories of economic security have been considered. It has been found that information security of the corporate economy of the socio-economic relations is called to counter the vulnerability of corporate computers, breaking into the smart-phones of employees of corporation, as well as there’s a need to identify and eliminate malware and to prevent threats to users of WI-FI. Among the information security threats, vulnerability of computer systems has been allocated, which has been divided by types. A study on attitude of Ukrainians to the information security threats has been carried out. The detriment caused to corporate information systems through the low level of informatization of financial-credit system, industry, agriculture, etc., as well as usage of unlicensed software for information processing have been considered. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №1-2017
Kladchenko I. S.
The Phase Portrait of Dynamics of the National Economy (p. 79 - 88)
The article is aimed at identifying meaningful patterns that define the economic development of Ukraine, visualization and characteristic of motion trajectory of the national economy in the context of approximation to the global objectives of sustainable development. The author uses the methodological instrumentarium and categorical apparatus of the non-linear dynamics for analyzing conduct in in the phase space of the national economy as a complex adaptive dynamic system. The author has selected the key markers for sustainable economic development together with the corresponding macroeconomic indicators, by which the actual dynamics of the national economy in the period of 1988-2016 could be evaluated. It has been found that its complex and polyharmonic form is caused by the non-linear nature of oscillations. The formed phase portrait of Ukrainian economy provided to reconstruct its conduct in the phase plane in form of the phase trajectories of the basic macroeconomic indicators of development. The specific for Ukrainian economic system types of equilibrium conduct have been identified: limit cycle and fixed point, as well as the bifurcation jumps with change of the mode of functioning and the overall direction of its movement. The obtained results of the study extend capabilities of the qualitative forecasting of processes of development of the Ukrainian economy. Article is written in Ukrainian
Sherstennikov Y. V., Rudianova T. M.
Simulating the Dynamics of the Production Development in the Conditions of the Non-Stationary Market of the Perfect Competition (p. 89 - 93)
In the article the economic-mathematical model of enterprise’s activity in the conditions of the non-stationary market of the perfect competition is constructed and researched. The market equilibrium is obtained as a result of the interaction between the endogenous and the exogenous model parameters. Dynamics of changes in the main economic indicators of enterprise was explored. The carried out analysis has showed that if liquidity of the basic production assets (BPA) is low, then the enterprise should give priority to the projects with limited deadlines for reinvestment. The enterprise’s activity, particularly its development in the conditions of the non-stationary market of the perfect competition, requires a well-considered investment policy, which should be aimed at increasing not only the BPA, but also the stocks of raw materials. Planning of current activities and formation of the strategic and tactical goals of enterprise should be based on the economic-mathematical models, allowing to take account of the major current economic parameters of the enterprise’s activity and to explore the dynamics of enterprise’s conduct in the competitive markets. Article is written in Ukrainian
Odintsov M. М., Odintsova T. M.
The Growth Poles of the Regional and National Production as Basis for Economic Development (p. 94 - 101)
The article analyzes and generalizes the contemporary methods for identifying the operational conditions and factors in the development of the growth poles of the regional territorial-sectoral production. The authors have suggested methods for identifying the industrial and agricultural growth poles, which are based on the correlation and regression analysis of the functioning economic models of the regions of Ukraine. The identified regional growth poles are successful in the conditions of the national crisis of economy, subject to balance of the interrelated factors of stabilization and growth of the gross regional product at the cost of volumes of the sold industrial products, gross agricultural output, income of population, current taxes, savings of population, capital investments, and exports. Article is written in Russian
Аndryushchenko І. Y.
Analyzing the Motivation Indicators of the Industrial Enterprises of Ukraine (p. 101 - 107)
The article attempts to substantiate essence of the concept of motivation as a component of viability of a socio-economic system. A set of indicators of motivation of economic entities has been substantiated on the basis of methodology of the financial-economic analysis, including: indicator of fluctuation of personnel; coefficient of turnover in terms of hiring personnel; profitability of the personnel of enterprise; personnel productivity; level of the social protection of personnel; rate of growth of the average wage level. Using the proposed set of indicators of motivation, an analysis of their trends for several industrial enterprises of Ukraine was carried out, which resulted in confirming their negative tendencies and the low level. With the aim of forming the common perception as to the level of motivation of industrial enterprises for further researches, it is planned to build an integrated indicator. Article is written in Ukrainian
Burennikova N. V., Yarmolenko V. О., Hrynchuk T. P.
The Aspects of Effectiveness of the Investment Support of Agricultural Enterprises (p. 108 - 115)
The article continues the exposition of previous topics by the same authors regarding the methodological approaches to analysis of effectuality of the investment support of the process of activities of agricultural enterprises by using the original modeling. The authorial SEE analysis of the processes of functioning of complex systems is presented as an analysis of effectuality of these processes on the platform of the original models and indicators of magnitude, efficiency and effectiveness of the sub-processes in terms of the specified processes. The article fulfills a further step in the implementation of the algorithm of SEE-analysis, based on a specific mechanism, which, together with the known characteristics also contains a complex of authorial indicators of the constituents in the effectiveness of the system’s sub-processes. A matrix based on results of SEE analysis of the studied process has been developed. The SEE analysis methodology is implemented on the example of processes of formation of the gross income of the specific agricultural enterprises of the Vinnytsia region of Ukraine. It has been proved that the proposed approaches can be used to analyze the investment support of the processes of functioning of any similar economic entities of different types and hierarchical levels, with a view to the science-based managerial decision-making. Article is written in Ukrainian
Shchepak V. V.
The Monitoring of Lands: Fundamentals of Formation of Methods for Integral Evaluation (p. 116 - 120)
The article is aimed at defining approaches to formation of methods of integrated evaluation of the lands condition in the monitoring. Two kinds of evaluating the signs of impact on the lands condition have been allocated: subjective and objective. The first consists in determining benefits of one single sign in relation with another sign, the second is based on an evaluation of the actual values of indicators. Also, three approaches to defining the relative values of indicators have been allocated, because monitoring of lands is carried out at different levels: local, regional, and national. In the first approach as the basic indicator the reference value is taken, in the second – the minimum or the maximum value, while in the third approach it is the minimum and the maximum. On the basis of the obtained relative values an evaluation of the indicators using entropy is carried out, which takes account of the level of orderliness. According to the results of two evaluation directions, the generalized and the deduced value of the indicators is determined, and subsequently the integral indicator of evaluation of the lands condition is calculated. Prospects for further research will be evaluating the natural and economic use of lands on the basis of methods of integrated evaluation that will provide to determine a strategy for the rational use and protection of lands. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №2-2017
Chernikova I. B., Kvаshа O. O., Kyrylieva L. O.
The Taxonomic Analysis of Development in the Accounting Strategy of Enterprises in the Restaurant Business (p. 95 - 102)
The article generalizes and elaborates the methodical techniques of analysis in terms of the taxonomic method within the strategic management system. Issues on application of method of the taxonomic analysis within the information system of enterprises of Kharkiv and Kharkiv region have been considered. It has been suggested to explore 104 enterprises of restaurant business in the city of Kharkiv and Kharkiv region and to identify the profitable restaurants, whose annual turnover exceeds 500-1000 thous. UAH. The carried out analysis shows the usefulness of applying in practice of the restaurant business the foreign methods, based on certain types, techniques and methods of analysis for studying the financial situation of enterprises. The taxonomic method is recommended, which allows to determine the reserves for increase of profit from enterprise’s activity for analyzing the information obtained, under condition of precision of its provision, in general terms. The article can be useful for the functional structures that carry out financial analysis (finance departments, accounting, divisions of marketing, planning, etc.). Article is written in Ukrainian
Zhuchenko A. M.
The Qualimetric Evaluation of the Investment Attractiveness of Region (p. 102 - 106)
A method for qualimetric evaluation of the investment attractiveness as a factor for the sustainable development of regional economy has been proposed. A generalized quantification of the investment attractiveness will be effectively formed using the mathematical method of qualimetric evaluation of «quality – complexity», allowing to obtain local estimates of the individual investment resources by each indicator and to aggregate them into a single criterion of the investment situation. Priority of changes in management actions will be determined by values of the quantitative presentation of the expert estimates. This information will form the basis for development of targeted programs and regulations on the part of governing bodies at both the rayon and the region levels. The developed mathematical method of obtaining integral coefficients of the investment attractiveness has the following advantages compared to the previously used methods: simplicity of formalization of data in the integrated assessment of the own indicators; consideration of influence of the nonlinear separate indicators on the integrated evaluation; ability to customize the algorithm with the aim of improving its reliability. Article is written in Ukrainian
Kulyk A. B., Manzhos T. V.
The One-Period Model for Management of Stockage for a Vertically Integrated Holding Company (p. 107 - 111)
The article builds a model of management of stockage for a vertically integrated holding company, consisting of three links of production chain. Mathematical models are used for solving problems of the optimum management of stockage. The objective necessity of creating and maintaining a stockage is due to its significant impact on the efficiency of processes of goods exchange. Using the mathematical modeling, the optimal strategy of management of stockage and its normative level were determined that allows to release significant working assets, which were frozen in the form of stock. A mathematical model of management of a stock system for a vertically integrated company has been built, the optimum strategy for operation of such a system has been defined. The received optimal solutions establish the overall level of inventory for a holding company as a whole and the proportion of stock for each production separately. Article is written in Ukrainian
Khanin I. H., Skoryna T. M.
Evaluating and Forecasting the Impact of Factors on the International Competitiveness of Hotel Enterprises (p. 112 - 120)
The article defines the basic concepts and evaluates as well as forecasts the impact of factors on the international competitiveness of hotel enterprises. Influence of the macroeconomic environment on the incoming tourist flow has been estimated, the impact of individual factors of both the external and the internal environment on the international competitiveness of hotel enterprises has been evaluated in terms of their organizational and legal forms. Features of impact of factors on the activities of hotel enterprises that operate as legal entities and natural persons has been determined, existence of special features in their international competitiveness has been proved. The economic-mathematical models, allowing to evaluate the impact of factors and forecast the international competitiveness of hotel enterprises, has been developed. The obtained results are a major tool for development of a balanced system for developing hotel enterprises. Article is written in Ukrainian
Sokolovska Z. M., Yatsenko N. V.
Modeling the Distribution Channels for Pharmaceutical Enterprise (p. 121 - 130)
The article is aimed at substantiation of possibilities to attract methods of the multi-approach simulation modeling in the process of management of distribution channels for pharmaceutical enterprises. Problems of functioning of enterprises of the domestic pharmaceutical industry sector have been determined, in particular in the sphere of the sales activity. The need for applying flexible methods of management of distribution channels on the basis of their modeling has been proved. As a mathematical apparatus, the multi-approach paradigm of simulation modeling is proposed. The model of functioning of a direct distribution channel, powered by the software platform AnyLogic using the system-dynamic and the agent-based approaches, has been proposed. The processes of pharmaceutical enterprise’s interaction with pharmacy network have been presented on the separate model fragment. The multi-approach base of simulation on the AnyLogic platform provides to achieve different levels of abstraction and aggregation of the researched processes. The training nature of the model, as well as its modularity and openness, contribute to the parametric setting up the experiments according to different scenarios and can be tailored to the specific enterprises in the pharmaceutical industry sector. Article is written in Ukrainian
Tymoshenko K. V.
Evaluating Tendencies of Formation and Use of Human Capital of Industrial Enterprises (p. 131 - 136)
The article is aimed at studying the dynamics and numerical characteristics of change in the values of indicators, characterizing tendencies of formation and use of human capital of industrial enterprises. A methodical support for analyzing and evaluating tendencies of formation and use of human capital of industrial enterprises on the basis of a system of indicators defining human capital has been provided. For solving analytical tasks, use of such set of tools is recommended: the descriptive statistics for calculating the numerical characteristics of the distribution of values of indicators; the mathematical method of building an integral indicator of the level of development of human capital; the econometric models of dependency of the development level on the main factors affecting it. The methodical support of such composition will be practicable in order to objectively establish tendencies of forming and use of human capital at industrial enterprise. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №3-2017
Oleshko T. I., Leshchinsky O. L., Horbachova O. M.
The Theoretical Foundations of Enhancing the Degree of Survivability of the Fuzzy Network of Airports up to the Specified Level (p. 164 - 169)
The article provides the theoretical foundations of building a graph model of the survivability of a fuzzy network in terms of the theory of fuzzy sets of the second type. The possibility and the correctness of generalizing the concept of the fuzzy graph in terms of presentation of the set of n-ary relations for an arbitrary finite n ? ? have been studied. Definitions of the fuzzy hypergraph have been introduced. The natural spread of the concept of the degree of survivability on the hypergraph has been displayed. The main cases of reducing the survivability of the fuzzy oriented graph have been specified. Analyzes of the task of increasing the degree of survivability of a fuzzy transportation network by the criterion of least cost and its interpretation in the matters of air transportation have been carried out. The authors suggest a modification of the known algorithm that allows to increase the sum value of the functions of membership of the fuzzy graph edges so that its survivability can reach the desired value. It has been substantiated that, using the considered theoretical foundations, the proposed algorithm allows to enhance the degree of survivability of the fuzzy network of airports up to the specified level. Article is written in Ukrainian
Zhuravka A. V., Mudashiru Tayo Musibau
Analysis of regression-correlation relationships between indicators of university potential and macroeconomic indicators of Ukrainian regions (p. 170 - 175)
The purpose of the article is to study the competitive university potential of the regions and its relationship with the macroeconomic indicators of the regions of Ukraine. An analysis of regression-correlation relationships between four macroeconomic indicators and two indicators of the university potential of the regions of Ukraine is made. As a result of the research, the best correlation was obtained between the number of universities and the indicator Ij, calculated on the basis of aggregating the webometric ratings of universities for each region. It is shown that both indicators of the regional university potential correlate well with all four macroeconomic indicators. At the same time, analysis of the essence of regional development shows that with the growth of cities and the social and economic power of the regions, the university potential of the regions also grows, and not vice versa. Prospects for further research in this area are the inclusion of a larger number of scientific, innovation and macroeconomic indicators. Article is written in Russian
BUSINESS INFORM №4-2017
Sherstennikov Y. V.
Variative Modeling of the Parameters of Delay throughout all Parts of the Chain of Logistics System of Enterprise (p. 103 - 106)
Enterprise’s ability to meet the needs of consumer is determined by the efficient work of all parts of the chain of enterprise’s logistics system: speed of processing orders, production capacity of enterprise, speed of product shipments, transportation to the end customer. The article is aimed at developing a general scheme of modeling the parameters of delay throughout all parts of the chain of logistics system. To do this, machinery of mass service theory was used. The work of small private enterprise «Еkokomplekt» was analyzed. A method for variative modeling the harmonization of work rate of the specific part of the chain with the common needs of the production has been developed. The mathematical programs for numerical characterization of the parameters of delay have been compiled using the mass service theory, positive economic results related to intensifying the rates of service of requirements to the activities of small enterprise have been obtained. Article is written in Ukrainian
Yemets M. S., Shchelkunova L. I.
Modeling the Impact of Integration Processes on the Development of International Tourism (on the Example of the Central and Eastern European Countries) (p. 107 - 112)
The publication is aimed at identifying and studying the factors of influence on the development of international tourism in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in the context of integration. The authors also search for ways to compile a system of indicators of integration in terms of tourism along with building mathematical models of the impact of integration processes on the development of international tourism. The study has identified the indicators of integration, which positively impact the value of the resulting variable, although not all built models have a high significance. In general, the publication confirms the hypothesis that factors, associated with integration processes, do influence on the development of tourism in the countries of the region, but the nature of such influence is not always unambiguous. Article is written in Russian
Andrenko O. A., Mordovtsev O. S., Mordovtsev S. M.
Forecasting Investment Risks in Conditions of Uncertainty (p. 113 - 118)
The article is aimed at studying the topical problem of evaluation and forecasting risks of investment activity of enterprises in conditions of uncertainty. Generalizing the researches on qualitative and quantitative methods for evaluating investment risks has helped to reveal certain shortcomings of the proposed approaches, to note in most of the publications there are no results as to any practical application, and to allocate promising directions. On the basis of the theory of fuzzy sets, a model of forecasting the expected risk has been proposed, making use of the Gauss membership function, which has certain advantages over the multi-angular membership functions. Dependences of investment risk from the parameters characterizing the investment project have been obtained. Using the formulas obtained, the total risk of investing in innovation project depending on the boundary conditions has been defined. As the researched target, index of profitability has been selected. The model provides the potential investors and developers with forecasting possible scenarios of investment process to make informed managerial decisions about the appropriateness of introduction and implementation of a project. Article is written in Russian
Malуarets L. M., Minenkova O. V.
Solving the Multi-Criteria Optimization Task of Efficiency of Enterprise’s Performance with Use of the Genetic Algorithm (p. 119 - 125)
The article sets out the procedure of solving the multi-criteria optimization task of performance efficiency with use of the genetic algorithm. An analysis of the main computational algorithms of the interactive methods for the multi-criteria optimization has been provided, their advantages and disadvantages have been specified. A multi-criteria optimization model of efficiency of the enterprise’s performance has been presented, based on balanced scorecard and taking into consideration the functions of changes of the values of these indicators during the research period, as well as the relevant regular tendencies in the changes of these indicators. In the task, a multitude of Pareto solutions was found, using the software of MatLab environment, more precisely: implementing the procedure of Multiobjective optimization using Genetic Algorithm, based on the genetic algorithm. The optimal values of indicators have been suggested to be used as the basis for a comparative evaluation and strategizing activities of enterprise. Article is written in Ukrainian
Shkolnyk I. O., Bondarenko Y. K.
The Structural Modeling of Factors for the Development of Stock Market (p. 126 - 132)
The article is aimed at evaluating the impact of individual determinants of stock market on its level of development. The groups of factors, which influence the development of stock market, were considered. Among a number of factors, two have been chosen, which level of influence is possible to adjust by introducing new types of insurance: activities of depository institutions in the securities market and activities of private investors on it. With a view to determining the relationships between factors and the level of development of stock market along with their economic-mathematical substantiation, the method of modeling by the structural equations was used. As a result of the carried out calculations, the hypothesis about existing relationship between the level of development of stock market, the depository activity, and activities of private investors in the securities market has been confirmed, also a mathematical evaluation of the level of the specified relationship has been obtained. Article is written in Ukrainian
Krasnokutska Y. V.
Evaluating and Prognosticating Tendencies of the Level of Involvement of Labor Resources (p. 132 - 137)
The models of evaluation of the effect of influence of a number of factors of both the economic and the social nature on the level of involvement of labor resources in Ukraine and in some countries in the EU have been developed. It has been substantiated that implementation of the proposed models would help to assess the efficiency of implementation of various programs, including: mediation in employment, vocational counseling, training of employees, loans, public works, and special programs. The prognostic values of the level of involvement of labor resources were calculated using the apparatus of neural networks, which is a tool for effective managerial decision-making on the issue of unemployment, as well as for accelerating the progressive structural shifts in the employment sphere and ensuring a balanced development of the labor market. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №5-2017
Yeliseyeva O. K., Kutova N. G.
The Evaluation of the Incentive Mechanism for Enterprise Staff (p. 76 - 81)
The article presents an expert evaluation of the level of effectiveness of mechanism for the staff incentive at the enterprises researched. The publication introduces the features of HR as well as related indicators that are used to simulate the HR business processes. Indicators to determine the integral measure of the efficiency of staff incentives have been substantiated. The critical quantitative factors that cause impact on ensuring the high efficiency of staff incentives have been determined. The interrelation between the performance of enterprises and the efficiency indicators of staff incentives has been disclosed. A correlative regression analysis has been applied to calculate the integrated HR performance indicator, defining the limits of the integrated indicator to determine the optimum form of the staff incentive mechanism by means of the extrapolation method of harmonic weights. Article is written in Ukrainian
Mykolenko O. P.
Do Institutions Create Conditions for Economic Growth? (Inter-Сountry Analysis) (p. 81 - 89)
The article is aimed at studying the impact of quality of institutions on economic growth, on the basis of the collected panel data on the selected economic institutions. The selection of the latter was done according to the analysis results and a generalization of the scientific works by contemporary researchers. The article substantiates the need to build an integrated indicator to assess the impact of quality of institutions on GDP per capita. Institutional factors were selected as explanatory variables by the criterion of importance for economic growth. The use of the main component method has enabled the model to include not only real indicators but also other institutional factors that may be relevant but remain unaccounted for in the selection of a specific set of institutions. The analysis used the data by the World Economic Forum and the World Bank collected for a number of countries. Prospects for further research relate to the search for and construction of a regression model, incorporating institutional and other independent variables influencing economic growth. Article is written in Russian
Buzhymska K. O., Overchuk A. V.
The Factor Analysis on the Efficiency of Use of the Fixed Assets of Enterprises (p. 90 - 96)
The article is aimed to modify the factor model of returns on assets to uniquely evaluate its dynamics by identifying hierarchical links in the system of performance indicators for the enterprise’s fixed assets. A modified factor model of returns on assets has been proposed, which includes indicators of the status and movement of fixed assets as well as partial indices of the use of equipment. The article substantiates the algorithm of considering the impact of factors of the average initial value of the equipment unit together with the index of validity, which is necessary to uniquely evaluate the dynamics of returns on assets as integrated indicator of efficiency of use of fixed assets. Application of the proposed factor model together with the algorithm will provide an opportunity to: evaluate the impact of indicators of movement and the status of fixed assets along with the partial indicators of efficiency of their use for returns on assets; identify reserves of efficiency in the use of fixed assets; clearly evaluate the dynamics of returns on assets. Article is written in Russian
Otenko P. V.
The Cognitive Approach to Formation of an Efficient Corporate Management System (p. 96 - 102)
The article clarifies the concept of «strategic decision in corporate governance» and systematizes types of strategic decisions by means of allocating attributes, corresponding to the organizational and instrumental aspects of their adoption, as well as the goal determination of enterprise. The article forms the theoretical basis for studying the strategic decision-making in the corporate management – the basic provisions of the institutional, cognitive, rational, competence, and resource approaches. The parameters of quality of corporate management are: compliance with principles, norms, rules; balancing the interests of key groups involved in corporate relations, action of mechanisms for the information transparency and the control over strategic decision-making. The cognitive approach to the modeling of corporate conditions for strategic decision-making, support for their effective implementation, and possible situations where the balance of interests is violated, has been presented. Article is written in Ukrainian
Shtal T. V., Bondarenko L. M., Yarkovyi O. E.
The Features of Analysis of the Macro Environment of Enterprise in the External Markets (p. 103 - 108)
The article highlights the problem of the export crisis in Ukrainian business, its causes and the magnitude of its effects. According to the authors, a topical problem for Ukrainian enterprises is search for new markets for selling their products, solving which will provide a reliable vector for development of enterprise. Available methods for analyzing the macro environment of enterprise, their advantages and disadvantages, as well as the ways to level these deficiencies, have been explored. The purpose of the article is to find ways to improve the adequacy of the analysis results as to the macro environment of enterprise. The object of the article is methods of analyzing the macro environment of enterprise. The subject of the article is the particularities of use of econometric methods in the analysis of the micro environment of enterprise. Usage of econometric methods in the course of analysis of the influence of macro environment factors has been suggested. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №6-2017
Beztelesna L. I., Pliashko O. S., Burchenia O. P.
Evaluating the Impact of Competition on the Work of Editorial Bodies of the Local Communal Print Media (p. 55 - 61)
The article evaluates the impact of competition on the work of editorial bodies of the local communal print media. The indicators of profitability of communal newspapers, their circulation, and the cost of subscribing in terms of regions were researched. An indicative framework has been defined and, proceedng from results of the correlation-regression analysis, impact of the demographic, institutional, economic, social, infrastructural factors and indicators of performance of communal newspapers on the number of profitable communal publications, the amount of local budget subsidies, and the average annual cost of subscriptions have been evaluated. The identified features of relationship between the factors allowed to allocate only one significant factor of influence on the number of profitable communal newspapers and none for the local budget subsidies and the average annual cost of the subscription. The carried out calculations led to the conclusion that profitability of the editorial bodies of the local communal print media is provided, above all, by efficiency of their management. The external factors, although they form a competitive environment for the local media, have no significant impact on their profitability. Article is written in Ukrainian
Kapustian V. O., Dyba V. A.
Developing a Model of the Efficient Management of Reserve Capital of an Endowment Insurance Company in the Ukrainian Market (p. 62 - 67)
The article is concerned with developing a model of the effective management of reserve capital of an endowment insurance company or so-called endowment life insurance. Such companies are powerful actors at the international market, operate with considerable capital and are effective as active investors in different areas. The main features of functioning of endowment insurance companies, as well as the factors that guarantee the sustainable development of insurance companies in both the global and Ukrainian markets, were considered. The principles of management of financial resources of insurance companies were studied. An elaborated model of management of current and reserve capital has been provided, the mechanism for establishing and operating the insurance company’s current capital, taking into account the process of income of insurance premiums and the payment of dividends on poles, has been described. An analysis of the largest endowment insurance companies in the Ukrainian market was carried out. Based on the analysis, the recommended discount rate has been calculated for the model proposed in the article. Article is written in Ukrainian
Pinchuk T. A.
The Economic and Socio-Psychological Components of Efficiency of the Programs for Operator Development (p. 68 - 73)
The article is aimed at defining and substantiating practical recommendations for evaluation of the summarized economic and socio-psychological components of efficiency of the programs for operator development. For such an evaluation, it is necessary to have a criterion that would help in measuring the efficiency of the expected results in all directions of the operator development. In view of the current tendency towards the strengthening of the social orientation of domestic economy, it is necessary that the efficiency criterion reflects both the economic and the social aspects of development. The recommended criterion allow for a detailed analysis of impact of the main factors of internal and external environment, the chosen distribution of investments among the projects of the program, and the total or partial non-implementation of some projects on the final outcome of development. Its structure also provides for the shift of value emphases between economic and social indicators. This criterion can also be used for comparative evaluation of development programs. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №7-2017
Pilko A. D., Ostashuk A. M.
The Evaluation of Efficiency of Production Management at Forestry Enterprise: Experience with Discriminantal and Applied Econometric Models (p. 91 - 95)
The publication is aimed at coverage of the results of a study on existing approaches to the setting and solving the task of evaluation and analysis of efficiency of management of production processes at forestry enterprises, as well as implementation and development (in line with the industry specificity) of the previously proposed approach to evaluating, analyzing and forecasting the efficiency of management of the production process by means of development and application of the economic-mathematical modeling capabilities. A study on the efficiency of the production process management and the usage of enterprise’s basic production assets has been conducted with application of discriminantal and simultative econometric models. Further development of the proposed approach could provide an additional methodical basis for planning activities to improve the management of production at forestry enterprises. Article is written in Ukrainian
Dmytrenko R. M.
The Comparative Analysis of Effectuality of the Processes of Net Profit at the Enterprises in Meat Food Sub-Сomplex on the Basis of Components of Effectiveness (p. 96 - 100)
The article, on the example of production activity of specific enterprises in the meat food sub-complex of Vinnytsia region of Ukraine, considers a comparative characterization of effectuality of the processes of obtaining net profits of enterprises, based on the Burennikova (Polishchuk) –Yarmolenko models of components of effectiveness with the objective of processes management. To do this, the methods for applying SEE analysis have been implemented. Part of the above mentioned analysis is the indicators of components of effectiveness of operational processes of complex systems and F-impulses as indicators of the scope and focus of consequences of the subprocesses of operation of these systems. The implementation of the SEE methodology, exemplified by the effectuality of the net profit obtaining process of the real-life enterprises, indicates that it can be applied at the micro level through a complex of models of components of effectiveness with the aim to make scientifically sound management decisions in the context of enterprise development. Article is written in Ukrainian
Dilenko V. О.
The Model of Optimum Economic Growth with the Induced Scientific-Technological Progress (p. 101 - 105)
On the basis of the economic dynamics of the Harrod – Domar model, a model of optimum economic growth in line with the induced scientific-technological progress (STP) has been built. In order to reflect the induced scientific-technological progress, with this model is proposed to further allocate the income element that is specially used for the investment of innovation activity, implementation of which reduces the capital intensity in development of the discussed economy. For the simplest way of presenting an economic mechanism for the investment of induced STP, analytical solutions of an appropriate task in optimum management have been obtained. Studying these decisions allowed to reveal the characteristics of the impact of parameters of scientific-technological progress and the analyzed economic system on choosing the best trajectory for its evolution. Possible directions for further developing the results presented can be considered the tasks in building and analyzing models of optimum economic growth that implement different investment options for the induced STP, as well as the models in which this investment mechanism is not exogenouslyed, but rather the result of the corresponding economic-mathematical research. Article is written in Russian
Kolodiazhna T. V.
Modeling the Impact of Mergers and Acquisitions of Companies on their Capitalization (p. 106 - 112)
In the context of economic globalization, the most common approaches to creating powerful companies that have high market value are those that use mergers and acquisitions. In Ukraine, such processes also have been considerably intensified in recent years. However, in the national economic science, the problems of evaluating the impact of mergers and acquisitions of companies on their capitalization, as well as on the concentration and competitiveness of the country’s economy, have not been solved to date. The article is aimed at analyzing the market capitalization of the world’s largest companies and modeling the impact of their mergers and acquisitions on the capitalization of their economies. As a result of the study, it has been determined that modeling the impact of the mergers and acquisitions of the world’s companies on the level of capitalization of their economies has proved the hypothesis that the countries of the world, where mergers and acquisitions of companies are more extensive, also have larger capitalization level. Article is written in Ukrainian
Hutorov A. O.
The Intersectoral Balance in the System of Development of Integration Relations as a Factor for Economic Growth of the Agrarian Economy Sector (p. 113 - 119)
The article is aimed at developing a model of economic growth of the agrarian sector of the Ukrainian economy through the development of intersectoral integration relations. It is displayed that the loss and severance of the linkages that existed in agro-industrial production prior to the reform of agrarian sector have become one of the causes of the crisis developments in this sector, and therefore a necessary prerequisite for integration is re-establishment of the system of linkages between disparate elements of integrity. By taking as basic the «costs – output» table, the main methodical approaches to assessing the level of integration were critically analyzed, a system of indicators was substantiated, and their economic content was further refined. The hypothesis about the functional link between the level of development of integration relations and the economic growth in agrarian economy sector has been proved. By taking as target criterium the maximum total value added, a dynamic model of the non-linear economic growth of the agrarian economy sector was built on the basis of the intensive development of the intersectoral integration relations. Article is written in Ukrainian
Burtnyak I. V., Malytska H. P.
Evaluating the Financial Flows of Bessel Processes by Using Spectral Analysis (p. 120 - 124)
The article solves the two-parameter task of evaluating the intensity of diffuse Bessel processes by the methods of spectral theory. In particular, barriers for cost of options, where the derivative of financial flows turns into zero, have been considered, and a task for the two-barrier option has been solved, which corresponds to Bessel process. A Green’s function has been built for the diffusion Bessel process of the two-barrier option, decomposed according to the first-type system of Bessel functions. The barriers are taken in such a way that the derivative of financial flow in terms of price is turned to zero, i.e. there are the points where flow can acquire extreme values. On the basis of Green’s function, the value of securities has been calculated. It is handier to use similar barriers when monitoring a stock market. The Green’s function for this task, which represents the probability of spreading the option price, is represented through the Fourier series. This provides an opportunity to evaluate the intensity of financial flows in stock markets. Article is written in English
BUSINESS INFORM №8-2017
Feshchenko O. Р.
The Analysis of Liquidity and Receivables as a Component of Corporate Financial Management (p. 124 - 133)
The article is aimed at the analysis of liquidity and receivables of corporations and substantiation of proposals as to its improvement as part of the management of financial status of companies. The instruments, methodical techniques, tasks, and stages of managing the accounts receivable were generalized. It has been substantiated that, at the current stage of development of Ukraine’s economy, it appears not sufficient to apply the coefficient analysis only, there is a need to supplement it by the regression analysis of the panel data, allowing for the temporal and spatial characteristics of the sample. The development of additional indicators for the monitoring of receivables can be suggested as recommendations for the studied corporations in order to reduce future risks of non-recovery and financial deterioration. Prospect for further research is an in-depth regression analysis of the panel data in terms of the measures to refinance receivables and the financial dynamics of companies. Article is written in Ukrainian
Yeliseyeva O. K., Khazan P. V.
Assessing the Impact of Renewable Energy on the Socio-Economic Indicators (p. 134 - 140)
Renewable energy sources increase their share in the energy sector because of a number of significant threats resulting from emissions, discharges and wastes from energy production through environmentally-dangerous and economically unacceptable technologies. The article examines the dependency between energy consumption per capita, GDP, and human longevity. The dependencies, which include economic, social, and environmental factors, are represented by polynomials that express the influence of each of the factors, as well as their mutual influence. The degree of polynomial depends on the number of factors influencing the processes that are described by the dependency. In the countries with developed economies and, consequently, health-care systems, there is a bigger correlation between renewable energy production, GDP, and longevity, than in developing countries. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №9-2017
Revyakin G. V.
The Regularities of the Cyclical Development of the World Economy in the Current Phase (p. 106 - 111)
The article is aimed at identifying and describing the key tendencies in the cyclical development of the world economy. In order to allocate the cyclical component in the dynamics of the world-wide GDP growth, a time series decomposition was performed using the Hodrick-Prescott filter and the relationship of economic cycles to the dynamics of different indicators of economic conditions was analyzed. The persistent relationship between inflation, unemployment and the current phase of the economic cycle have been identified and described. The truth of the Phillips curve has been empirically demonstrated: existence of an inverse relationship between the rate of inflation and the level of unemployment. A new classification of branches of economy has been provided according to their susceptibility to the current phase of the economic cycle. According to this criterion, all branches of economy have been divided into the cyclical and the non-cyclical sectors. A hypothesis that there is a direct relationship between the average annual growth rate of GDP and the structure of the national economy has been suggested. Article is written in Russian
Debunov L. M.
Using Artificial Neural Networks to Simulate the Financial Stability of Enterprise (p. 112 - 119)
The financial sustainability of enterprise is an extremely important concept in a market environment. In view of the growing need of society for machine-based data processing to support decision-making, there is a need to find and develop mathematical methods that can meet the task of classifying enterprises into financially stable and financially unstable. The article substantiates the feasibility of applying financial stability simulations using artificial neural networks (ANN), and describes the basic principles for the work of ANN. It also provides an example of building an ANN to accomplish this task, which includes a number of financial indicators, using which makes sense for the simulation of financial stability, the parameters for building the neural network described, choosing the best architecture and method for training the network. The results of the model’s work, which show that artificial neural networks can reasonably accurate classify enterprises by the types of «potential bankrupts» and «stable», have been provided. Article is written in Russian
Horbokon V. Y.
The Economic-Mathematical Modelling of the Efficient Use of the Resource Potential of Motor Transport Enterprises (p. 119 - 128)
The article is aimed at substantiating the theoretical and methodological foundations for assessment of economic modelling and building applicable models for the efficient use of the resource potential on the example of performance indicators for motor transport enterprises. Using the methods of correlation-regression analysis, the author assessed the impact of the indicators of resource potential on the enterprise’s net profit on the basis of one motor transport enterprise of the Zakarpattia region. The result of the study was a set of regression models to predict the enterprise’s net profits. The scientific novelty of the publication lies in a deep and detailed economic-mathematical analysis of the enterprises of the Zakarpattia region. The practical content of the carried out study is represented in the proposed list of economic models, which may provide the basis for optimal managerial decision-making by the management of the research site. Article is written in Ukrainian
Silantiev O. I.
Institutions as a Constituent of the Social Wealth and a Factor of the Synthesis of its Constituents (p. 128 - 135)
The publication is aimed at studying the role of institutions in the development of modern macroeconomic systems and the growth of their wealth. The integral, integrated, logical approach plus the mathematical modelling method were used for carrying out the analysis. It has been found that the value of institutions is defined for society through cost reduction, as opposed to the value of other accrued benefits that exist in forms of valuable material things, knowledge, information, etc., and the worth of which, accordingly, is determined by the growth of the end result (increase in their volume). A classification of institutions by the criterion of their efficiency for the development of society has been proposed. The economic-mathematical model has been built and analyzed in the form of a regression equation that expresses the dependence of GDP according to the purchasing power parity (PPP) per person from the corruption perception index. It has been found that there is a stochastic link between the corruptness of public governance and the formation of the wealth of modern macroeconomic systems. The obtained results can be applied in the sphere of public governance in the formation of Ukraine’s social and economic policy. Prospects for further research are an in-depth examination of the relationship between the institutional infrastructure of society and the level of its wealth. Article is written in Ukrainian
Pysareva I. V.
Substantiating the Choice of a Strategy for Development of Tourism Resources in the Region (p. 135 - 139)
The article is aimed at substantiating the choice of the most appropriate and effective strategy for developing tourism resources according to the criteria set, using the economic and mathematical methods of measuring these criteria. The impact of the development of tourism resources on the volume of services provided by tourism industry enterprises (i.e., enterprises providing board and lodging services) was analyzed by means of correlation-regression analysis. The task of the optimal investment in tourism resources was solved through converting the linear regression equation into a logistical. On the results of the carried out analysis, it has been determined that the priority tasks in the development of a tourism resource strategy should focus on the creation and development of local significant sites, restaurant facilities, increasing the number of places in the accommodations, as well as the number of stadiums and theatres. Article is written in Ukrainian
Glushchevsky V. V., Metryk R. U., Smorodin V. V.
Simulating the Adaptive Mechanisms to Reduce the Risks of Occurence of Threats to the Economic Security of Enterprise (p. 140 - 147)
The article is concerned with addressing the topical problem of effectively countering real and potential threats to economic security of enterprises and reducing the risks of their occurrence. The article is aimed at simulating the adaptive mechanisms to counteract external influences on the marketing component of enterprise’s economic security and developing a system of measures for removing threats to price destabilization of its orders portfolio based on a modern economic-mathematical instrumentarium. The common causes of the threats occurrence related to the price policy of enterprise and the tactics of the contractual processes with the business partners have been explored. Hidden reserves for price maneuvering in concluding contracts with customers have been identified. An algorithmic model for an adaptive pricing task in terms of an assortment of industrial enterprise has been built. On the basis of this model, mechanisms have been developed to counteract the threats of occurrence and aggravation of a «price conflict» between the producing enterprise and the potential customers of its products, and to advise on how to remove the risks of their occurrence. Prospects for using the methodology together with the instrumentarium for economic-mathematical modeling in terms of tasks of the price risks management have been indicated. Article is written in Ukrainian
Barannik I. O.
A Methodical Approach to Monitoring the Export-Import Potential of Industrial Enterprise (p. 148 - 153)
The article describes the content and logic of the stages of a methodical approach to monitoring the export-import potential of a contemporary industrial enterprise. The procedure for determining both the external and the internal environment factors that impact the level of development of the export-import potential of enterprise (EIPE) and its level of use have been discussed in detail on the example of a particular enterprise. Feasibility of implementing a methodical approach to monitoring the export-import potential has been substantiated, and the steps of such an approach have been outlined. The suggested methodical approach to monitoring the EIPE will ensure the regular observance of changes in the values of particular indicators, their consistency with the strategies and objectives of managing the export-import activities of enterprises, which in turn will facilitate development of the machine-building sector, which has been chosen as prospective one in accordance with the Road map for the strategic development of Ukraine’s trade in 2017-2021. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №10-2017
Gerasymov O. K.
Analyzing the Approaches to the Interpretation of Efficiency of Activity of Enterprises (p. 27 - 36)
The article is aimed at studying, systematizing and analyzing scientific approaches to the definition of the category of «efficiency», evolution of the formation and development of scientific schools, defining of the basic and the general theories of efficiency: economic, dynamic, statistical, adaptive, and synergistic. The results of the study show that there is no uniform approach to understanding the concept of «efficiency» in the current circumstances. Efficiency presents itself as an indicator of the development of actor (phenomenon) and works as an incentive for implementing entrepreneurial activity. Efficiency is the target guideline of managerial activities for leaders of enterprises who direct their activities towards substantiation, necessity, justification, and sufficiency. Prospect for further research in this area is the development of an organizational-economic mechanism for the marketing provision of enterprise, as well as a methodical approach to assessing the efficiency of the enterprise performance along with its marketing subsystem. Article is written in Ukrainian
Los V. O., Ocheretin D. V.
The Cognitive Modeling of Development of Tourism Sphere (p. 166 - 173)
The article explores the inter-sectoral interaction in the tourism sphere, which is based on the application of cognitive modeling. The authors consider the interaction of powers (political environment), tourism (tourism business), business (socio-economic environment) and ecology (ecological environment). The ecology is identified as the exceptional decisive factor in creating an enabling environment for the development of the market for tourism services. A static analysis of the cognitive model was carried out, which revealed 624 contours, of which 473 were stabilizing and 151 were destabilizing. Based on results of the systemic characterizations of the cognitive model, it was found that the interaction between the two sectors, tourism (tourist business) and business (socio-economic environment) needs special attention. A dynamic analysis of the built cognitive model was carried out using the method of impulse processes that helped to generate alternative scenarios for the development of tourism services. As a result, it has been found that increased investment in restaurant and hotel activities facilitates the increase in the level of development of market for tourism services for one period earlier than the increase in financing tourism sphere from the budget. Article is written in Ukrainian
Sementsov R. V.
The Diagnostics of the Bank Financial Status: Credit Risk Management (p. 173 - 177)
This article analyzes the methodology for determining the credit risk of active operations of bank, as laid down in the Regulation on determining by banks of Ukraine the credit risk size on active banking transactions; a simplified algorithm for using it in practice has been provided. A study of the methodology, proposed by the National Bank of Ukraine, has revealed outstanding issues, such as adjusting the probability factor of borrower’s default, taking into consideration the retrospective. In view of this situation, it has been suggested that any generally acceptable methodology should be used. It is emphasized that the quality of the bank’s credit risk management can be determined by evaluating its credit portfolios for compliance with the regulatory acts and by comparing the difference between the bank’s actual risk and the actual amount of reserve funds, established by the bank. At present, the process of determining credit risk is excessively complex and cannot be fully automatized, and therefore needs to be substantially further elaborated. Article is written in Ukrainian
Kotsyuba O. S.
Optimizing an Investment Solution in Conditions of Uncertainty and Risk as a Multicriterial Task (p. 178 - 182)
The article is concerned with the methodology for optimizing investment decisions in conditions of uncertainty and risk. The subject area of the study relates, first of all, to real investment. The problem of modeling an optimal investment solution is considered to be a multicriterial task. Also, the constructive part of the publication is based on the position that the multicriteriality of objectives of investment projecting is the result, first, of the complex nature of the category of economic attractiveness (efficiency) of real investment, and secondly, of the need to take into account the risk factor, which is a vector measure, in the preparation of an investment solution. An attempt has been made to develop an instrumentarium to optimize investment decisions in a situation of uncertainty and the risk it engenders, based on the use of roll-up of the local criteria. As a result of its implementation, a model has been proposed, which has the advantage that it takes into account, to a greater extent than is the case for standardized roll-up options, the contensive and formal features of the local (detailed) criteria. Article is written in Ukrainian
Lebedko S. А.
Substantiating the Target Level of Economic Security of Transport Enterprises and the Instrumentarium for Its Provision (p. 183 - 190)
The article is aimed at substantiating the methodology for assessing the economic security of transport enterprises, determining the target level and the instrumentarium for its provision. The proposed methodical approach to the assessment of the level of economic security of transport enterprises includes the determination of the level of counteracting threats and is based on the principles of integral estimation. The formed integrated indicator includes both indicators of counteracting the internal (human, managerial and technological, force majeure, financial) and external threats (market, stakeholder, power-based, natural, infrastructural). Each measure of counteracting threats is determined by results of assessment of dynamics of the three indicators. A practical testing of the proposed approach is carried out in the case of transport enterprises. Based on the established equation of the regression relationship between the level of economic security and the financial strength, a target level of economic security of transport enterprises has been substantiated. The instrumentarium to provide a targeted level of economic security according to the threat types, including preventive and reactive measures, has been developed. Article is written in Ukrainian
Yatsenko R. M., Balykov O. H.
A Complex of Business Process Management Models for a Service-Providing IT Company (p. 191 - 197)
The article presents an analysis of a complex of business process management models that are designed to improve the performance of service-providing IT companies. This class of enterprises was selected because of their significant contribution to the Ukrainian economy: third place in the structure of exports, significant budget revenues, high development dynamics, and prospects in the global marketplace. The selected complex of models is designed as a sequence of stages that must be accomplished in order to optimize business processes. The first stage is an analysis of the nature of the process approach, approaches to strategic management, and the characteristics of service-providing IT companies. The second stage is to build the formal and hierarchical models to define the characteristics of the business processes and their structure, respectively. The third stage is to evaluate individual business processes (information model) and the entire business process system (multi-level assessment of business processes). The fourth stage is to optimize the business processes at each level: strategic, tactical and operational. The fifth stage is to restructure the business processes after optimization. The sixth (final) stage is to analyze the efficiency of the restructured system of business processes. Article is written in Ukrainian
Vikhlyaeva N. V.
The Methodical Bases of Assessment of Innovation Processes in the Sphere of Power Generation with Use of Opportunities of Cognitive Modeling (p. 198 - 204)
The article presents the methodical bases of assessing the innovation processes of power generating companies with use of opportunities of cognitive modeling. It is specified that the method of cognitive modeling allows to remove contradictions concerning the interrelationship of the factors determining the innovation processes of the energy generating companies that usually arise when the results of research on the elements of the innovation system are being coordinated. Based on the arguments and practical examples, provided in the article, it was concluded that application of the method of cognitive modeling in the process of assessing the innovative capabilities of energy-generating companies is a sufficiently flexible and effective tool for supporting decision-making on strategic directions of their development. Article is written in Ukrainian
Ostrianyn S. O.
The Dynamic Definition of the Advertising Campaign Budget (p. 204 - 209)
The article is aimed at exploring means for optimizing the budgeting of advertising activity, the optimal distribution of the advertising budget among several products, advertised by a company, and several advertising channels used during the distribution of an advertisement. The current status of the optimizationized budgeting models in the world and in Ukraine was analyzed. The topicality of scientific developments in this direction has been substantiated. The model is based on the non-linear logistics function of the response value of sales for the costs of placement of an advertising message, including market saturation effects and the accumulation of promotional effect. A complex advertising budgeting model has been proposed, which includes the dynamic definition of a budget constraint based on the expected sales return from a byed advertising campaign whose budget is being optimized. The proposed model allows to schedule advertising activities in conditions of uncertainty and rapid change of environment. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №11-2017
Katunina O. S.
Modelling the Dynamics of the World Stock Indices (p. 197 - 202)
The article considers the issues of modelling the dynamics of the economic system, which is described by the aggregate of indicators from some major world stock indices. The practical possibility of application of methodology of dynamic factor analysis for researching such systems has been substantiated. The mathematical model, combining approaches of factor analysis and autoregressive estimation, has been developed. In contrast to the classical models of the vector time series analysis, a dynamic factor system is used to simulate evolution, which is more informative than the original aggregate of indicators. The basic calculated correlations of the constructed mathematical model and the direction of adaptation of the developed algorithm for solving a wide spectrum of forecasting tasks have been provided. Unlike well-known models, the proposed technique allows to define a certain interval of reasonable forecast values, the boundaries of which depend on the parameters of the model. The error in the control time interval, determined when comparing the averaged values of the forecasts for several indicators with actual index values, persists in the range of 1 – 2%, which confirms the high efficiency of the proposed methodology and the possibility of its use in research practice. Article is written in Russian
Kuzmin O. Y., Bortnikova M. Н.
The Formation of the Model of Diagnosing the Results Implementation of of Consulting Projects for Enterprises (p. 203 - 211)
In the article the graphic-analytical model of diagnostics of results of implementation of consulting projects is formed, which allows to: take into consideration interests of participants to the project on choice of methods and methodologies of diagnosing; allocate alternative sets of business indicators for each object of impact in terms of consulting project; establish economic and non-economic criteria for evaluating the effectiveness of consulting, as well as monitoring of indicators and automated processing of diagnostic results to control deviations from the optimal values of the diagnosed project results. A structural-logical model of formation of alternative sets of indicators and choice of indicators for diagnostics of results of consulting projects has been developed. The elements of the enterprise management system have been codified to harmonize the corresponding indicators with their subsequent combination within the proposed sets. The control system objects and their elements have been allocated. The groups of indicators according to the technology of Balanced Score Card (BSC) have been presented. The prospect of further research is the economic assessment of implementation of the diagnosed consulting projects, which will reveal the links between the parameters of production-economic activity and the assessment of projects, and allows choose the most significant ones. Article is written in Ukrainian
Shpak S. O.
The Concept of Structural Changes and the Problem of Management of Enterprises Restructuring. Methodological Nuances (p. 212 - 220)
The article is aimed at clarifying the concept of structure as the main object of management in the process of restructuring industrial enterprises on the basis of philosophical conceptions of structure and ideas about the structure of the general system theory, as well as developing the methodological provisions on strategic management of enterprises restructuring. It has been shown that the concept of structure is extremely complex and not strictly formalized from the standpoint of the applied economy, which prevents the construction of a coherent, logically consistent theory and development of constructive methods of managing the restructuring of enterprises. In the article, with the use of schematic models of the high level of commonality, an analysis of the structure of functioning of industrial enterprises was carried out; the main types of possible structural changes at enterprises have been revealed; it has been shown that the process of restructuring in general is the process of making changes to the enterprise structure of the specified types. It has been concluded that the structural approach to solving the problem of management of the enterprises restructuring is reasonably required, constructive and needs some adjustment to the methodology and methods of implementation of the main stages and procedures of the strategic management of enterprise restructuring. Article is written in Russian
Hryhorash O. V., Teroshyna Y. О.
The Efficiency of the Financial-Economic Activity of Ukrainian Enterprises (p. 221 - 226)
The article analyzes the approaches to the definition of «efficiency». It has been noted that it is associated with the effect, considered as the ratio of results and costs or equated with the concept of «effectiveness». The approaches to formation of the system of indicators of efficiency of the financial and economic activity of enterprises have been characterized. The methods of factor analysis of profitability indicators (three- and five-factor DuPont models) have been considered, which helps to identify the reserves of profitability growth and is the basis for making decisions on improving the efficiency of the financial and economic activity of enterprise. An analysis of efficiency of the financial-economic activity of enterprises of Ukraine was carried out, determining profitability of sales, assets and own capital. It has been indicated that enterprises of Ukraine are characterized by increase of efficiency of financial-economic activity during 2014-2016. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №12-2017
Kutsyk V. A., Lupak R. L.
The Modeling of Competitive Positions of Enterprises of Real Sector of Economy in the Domestic Market (p. 244 - 249)
Topicality of rational choice of methodical instrumentaqrium in assessing competitive positions of enterprises is substantiated. A wide list of methodical approaches to assessment of competitive positions of enterprises in market environment is presented, and the spheres of their practical application, general disadvantages and advantages, are characterized. The characteristics of matrix models (GE/McKinsey, SHELL/DPM, PIMS, BCG) are presented on a selective basis, so that, proceeding from a wide range of models, supported by the proper information provision, they can be assigned as the exact ones. Given the lack of information provision, disadvantages, and advantages of existing models and considering it as a means of system management, the authors have proposed to use the map of the «portfolio of competitive advantages» in the form of a nine-celled model matrix (3x3) with two-dimensional system of coordinates. The proposed model of «competitiveness / share of the national market» is an expression of competitive position of enterprises of the real sector of economy taking into consideration dynamic influence of factors of competitive environment and, at the same time, a methodical means for substantiation of competitive strategy. However, an important step in choosing the basic variant of competitive strategy for an enterprise in the real sector of economy is to determine the functional objectives to its efficient implementation. Article is written in Ukrainian
Barannik I. O.
The Formation of Analytical Provision of Working-Out the Development Strategies and Use of the Export-Import Potential of Enterprise (p. 250 - 255)
The article describes the procedure of formation of analytical provision of working-out strategies on the basis of optimization of indicators of the export-import potential of enterprise (EIPE). A setting of multi-criteria optimization task of maximization of development and use of the export-import potential of the concrete enterprise is provided, solving of which is recommended to be carried out in the software environment of MatLab. The formation of a strategy based on the monitoring of EIPE, which involves solving of a multi-criteria optimization task, is recommended to be implemented in stages, which can be combined into four blocks, as follows: 1) determination of the structure of company’s potential and the place of its export-import potential in this structure; 2) assessment of the status of export-import potential and its use at the enterprise, and the factors influencing them; 3) assessment of the strategic position of enterprise in the internal and foreign markets; 4) selection and formation of strategy of enterprise’s activity. In the formation of strategies, it is recommended that the desired values of indicators be based on the forecast and optimal values of the main indicators of EIPE and the performance indicators of the enterprise. Article is written in Ukrainian
Momot T. V., Pysarevskyi M. I.
The Scenario Approach to the Development of Strategy of Prevention of Raider Seizure for Machine-Building Enterprise (p. 256 - 262)
The article proposes the methodical approach to the choice and substantiation of efficiency of managerial decisions on ensuring economic safety at counteraction of raiding, based on an intellectual instrumental analysis. The ranking of alternatives of managerial decisions on the basis of the received weighted estimates and their fuzzy composition is used. A graphical interpretation of the membership functions of the calculated fuzzy expected utilities of management alternatives for the machine-building enterprises has been constructed and is presented. Article is written in Ukrainian
Pyroh O. V., Tomych M. I.
Evaluating the Factors that Activate the Development of Public-Private Partnership in Foreign Economic Activity (p. 263 - 268)
The article is concerned with research on public-private partnership in foreign economic activity as process of interaction of the State and business-structures – entities of economic activity of Ukraine along with foreign entities of economic activity, this process includes attraction of investments, acceleration of economic development, etc. The factors determining public-private partnership in the foreign economic sphere (system of the State government bodies, system of economic relations in the State, financial resources of various States, experience in the implementation of public-private partnership projects, trust between partners) are researched and generalized. Influence of each of the factors was defined by means of conjunctive analysis, determining that the system of economic relations in the State is most influenced by the formation of conditions, rules and implementation of principles of functioning of public-private partnership in the foreign economic sphere. Article is written in Ukrainian
Marchenko V. M., Pokrovska N. M.
The Methodological Aspects of Assessment of the Intensification of Machine-Building Production (p. 269 - 274)
The article is concerned with the research of theoretical-methodological aspects of assessment of the intensification of machine-building production. The current status of scientific researches on the given subject was analyzed. It is suggested to carry out quantitative assessment of production intensification on the basis of selection of production model and calculation of the integral indicator. The method of integral-model assessment of intensification of production (method of IMAIP) has been developed, which includes three following stages: factor-modelling, assessing-calculating, and concluding-recommendative. It is proposed to consider two models of intensification of production: production as a process and production as a system. It has been noted that the determination of factors of production intensification depends on the chosen production model. The use of the method of IMAIP is demonstrated for the case where production is considered as a process. The partial and integral indicators of intensification of machine-building production as a process are described and formulas for their calculation are provided. Application of the method of IMAIP for assessment of the intensification of the machine-building industry sector for the period of 2010–2015 was analyzed. Article is written in Ukrainian
Martynyuk H. P., Martyniuk M. A.
The Basic Parameters of Revival of Cattle Breeding in Agricultural Enterprises (p. 275 - 281)
The problem of necessity of revival of the branch of cattle breeding in agricultural enterprises is substantiated. Attention is paid to the category of «revival». On the basis of the carried out analysis of activity of agricultural structures, in terms of the model parameters low, average and high levels have been defined, as well as interrelation between livestock, productivity of cattle, provision of forages, and profitability. The interrelation between key parameters of the model in the form of the logical output tree was researched. The stagefication of the input linguistic variables, or the introduction of fuzziness, has been determined. As an output variable of the model an integral indicator was applied – the decision to revive cattle breeding in agricultural enterprises. Article is written in Ukrainian
Nosach N. M.
The Analytical Instrumentarium for Predictive Analysis of Revenue from the Sale of Goods (p. 282 - 286)
The article is aimed at elaborating recommendations on the selection of analytical instrumentarium for predictive analysis of revenue from the sale of goods, according to the nature of its seasonal changes. The necessity of carrying out predictive analysis of revenue from the sale of goods as an important component of its management is substantiated. The attention is focused on the necessity to use for predictive analysis of revenue from the sale of goods the trend-seasonal models which take into consideration both regularity and randomness of formation of values of levels of the series. A structural-logical model of technology of predictive analysis of revenue from the sale of goods has been proposed according to the nature of its seasonal changes. A number of criteria has been defined, which allow to reveal in a series of dynamics the presence of anomalous data, trend, and seasonal fluctuations. The iterative method of distribution of series of dynamics of revenue from the sale of goods by components has been tested. The recommendations on the choice of the trend model, which can be used to construct both point and interval predictions of the volume of proceeds from sale of goods, are provided. Article is written in Ukrainian
Pilko A. D., Potiatynnyk B. B.
Modelling the Process of Formation of the Market Position of Agriholdings According to Their Transparency Level (p. 287 - 291)
The article is aimed at coverage of the results of research on the formation of market position of agriholdings, operating on the Ukrainian market, taking into consideration the level of transparency of their activities by means of econometric modeling. Topicality of such researches is substantiated. The dynamic econometric models of the stock price, EBITDA, and net income dependence on the level of transparency of activity have been developed and analyzed. The carried out assessment of the respective distributive-lagged provided to draw conclusions about the nature of the dynamics of change of the effect from increasing the level of openness of information on both financial and operational activities in the context of ownership structure and the entitlement of investors, financial transparency and management structure on the performance indicators of agriholdings. The approaches proposed in terms of the carried out research can become the basis for the development of a prospective direction of monitoring the level of transparency of agriholdings, as well as the formation of appropriate targeted programs to reduce the relevant risks that have a direct connection with the promotion of companies in the world market, and the promotion of agricultural development at the national level. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №1-2018
Melnyk O. H., Adamiv M. Y., Kots I. I.
The Theoretical and Applied Fundamentals of Management of Tolling Operations (p. 140 - 145)
The article is concerned with identification of the unified essence of tolling operations in the scientific terminological apparatus; substantiation of conceptual bases of balanced management of tolling operations; characterization of the current status and tendencies of development of tolling operations at domestic enterprises; allocation and analyzing of factors of influence on tolling operations, and also economic assessment of tolling operations of the processing enterprise. The concept of balanced management of tolling operations has been substantiated, on parity basis considering interests of the customer and executor of processing works. The most essential internal and external factors of influence on tolling operations have been identified and their influence has been interpreted by means of the developed correlation-regression dependencies. The complex model of economic diagnostics of tolling operations of processing enterprise has been improved, allowing to assess efficiency of their implementation both operatively and fundamentally. Prospect for further research is development of an instrumentarium of motivation of participants of tolling operations in order to increase motivation of employees to the efficient implementation of these operations. Article is written in Ukrainian
Markov M. Y.
Using the Artificial Neural Networks for Forecasting the Risk of Bankruptcy of Banks (p. 146 - 151)
The article is aimed at finding the optimal structure of artificial neural network to solve the problem of forecasting the bankruptcy of banks and researching the efficiency of use of the neural networks model for the realities of Ukrainian banking sphere. Results of the research testify that the best accuracy of forecasts for 1-1,5 years showed the model on the basis of the multilayer perceptron with 10 and 2 neurons in the hidden layers. The developed neural networks model can be used as an alternative to statistical methods, as it has shown better results. Prospect for further research in this direction is development of a complex system of support for decision-making for banking institutions, which would include forecasting risks for bank, analysis of the bank’s financial condition and identification of financial problems using innovation instruments and technologies, ensuring the monitoring and control of risks of banking institution. The developed neural networks model can become one of elements of the complex system. Article is written in Ukrainian
Hlotov Y. O., Popova O. M.
The Dynamics of Electricity Production in Ukraine and its Forecasting (p. 152 - 160)
The article is aimed at identifying the trend relevance of electricity generation by thermal, nuclear, and hydro power plants in Ukraine on the basis of fractal analysis together with its forecasting. The publication carries out a fractal analysis of electricity production by thermal, nuclear, and hydro power plants in the period from 2001 to 2017, and makes forecast for 2018. For analyzing of such time series, the publication uses the method of Harold Edwin Hirst (R/S-analysis). The Hirst method allows to analyze time series and distinguish random and fractal time series, as well as make conclusions about the presence of non-recurrent cycles, long-term memory, etc. A fractal analysis of time series of electricity production by thermal, nuclear, and hydro power plants in 2001–2017 in Ukraine allowed to determine that they come under antipersistent. Because the antipersistent time series have a quality of «return to average», the exponential smoothing and moving average methods have been selected for the forecasting. Article is written in Ukrainian
Melikhova T. O.
Substantiating the Expediency of Costs on Introduction of the System of Economic Security of Enterprise (p. 161 - 170)
The article substantiates expediency of introduction of the system of economic security of enterprise on the basis of money flows. The methods proposed in the long-term period stipulate the use as sources of financing: accumulated conditional economic costs, accumulated conditional gross and net money flow; and as costs: cumulative advanced costs and the advanced value of fixed assets. The article suggests methods for calculation of: gross index of conditional yield; gross conditional income of project; gross conditional profitability; gross conditional profitability of money flow. The managerial decision on introduction of the system of economic security of enterprise in the short-term production period has been substantiated on the basis of calculations of the following indicators: gross profitability of annual depreciation; annual gross economic effect; index of conditional yield of the gross money flow; differences between the conditional gross cash flow and the depreciation deductions associated with the implementation of the enterprise’s economic security system. Article is written in Ukrainian
Ben V. P.
The Formation of Model Assembly on the Basis of Specialization of Experts for Classification of Borrowers – Natural Entities (p. 170 - 176)
The article is aimed at researching the efficiency of the use of assembly technologies to solve the task of classifying borrowers – natural entities in relation to the level of credit risk. Features of information support of the process of solving the task of classifying borrowers – natural entities were analyzed. The necessity of application of model assemblies as one of contemporary directions of processing of big data has been substantiated. The author’s own variant of algorithm of creation of an assembly on the basis of specialization of separate models-experts has been provided. The proposed approach is implemented in two versions according to the types of models used as experts. In the first variant the assembly consists of logit-regressions, in the second variant – of neural networks. An analysis of the obtained results has proved that the described assembly structure gives an opportunity to increase the accuracy of assessment of the credit risks of borrowers, and it is expedient to use neural networks as separate models-experts. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №2-2018
Bril M. S.
Building a System of Comparative-Spatial Assessment of the Level of Development of Ukraine and the EU Countries (p. 81 - 89)
The article proposes an approach to the formation of a system of comparative-spatial assessment of the level of socio-economic development of the State, on the basis of which the multidimensional statistical analysis of Ukraine and the EU countries was accomplished. On the basis of the hierarchical agglomerative and iterative methods of the spatial cluster analysis, groups of countries are allocated by homogeneous characteristics of the socio-economic development. A comparison of the results of spatial and dynamic clustering confirms the stability of the composition of the allocated groups and their quality characteristics. The proposed complex of economic and mathematical models for determining the level of socio-economic development of the State and the EU countries on the basis of assessment and analysis of the main macro-indicators and their relationship in the perspective will improve the quality of managerial decisions as to ensuring the socio-economic development of the State. Article is written in Ukrainian
Kotsyuba O. S.
Estimating the Economic Attractiveness of Investment Projects in Conditions of Uncertainty and Risk with the Use of Sensitivity Analysis (p. 90 - 98)
The article is concerned with the methodology of economic substantiation of real investments in case of considerable lack of information on possible fluctuations of initial parameters and the resulting risk. The analysis of sensitivity as the main instrument for accounting the risk in the indicated problem situation is the focus of the presented research. In the publication, on the basis of the apparatus of interval mathematics, a set of models for comparative estimation of economic attractiveness (efficiency) of alternative investment projects in conditions of uncertainty and risk is formulated, using the sensitivity analysis. The developed instrumentarium assumes both mono- and poly-interval version of the sensitivity analysis. As the risk component in the constructed models is used: in some – values of the specially developed sensitivity coefficient, in others – the worst values, which are based on the interval estimations of the partial criteria of efficiency. The sensitivity coefficient, according to the approach proposed in the publication, is the ratio of the target semi-range of variation to the increase (economy) of efficiency, which is provided when the basic level of the analyzed partial criterion of economic attractiveness in comparison with some of its threshold (limit) value is being reached. Article is written in Ukrainian
Kuzmin O. Y., Lakiza V. V.
The Economic Assessment of the Results of Regulation of the Production-Economic Activity of Enterprise (p. 99 - 106)
The article is aimed at studying the methods of economic assessment of regulation results; selection of criterion, as well as improvement of the economic-mathematical instrumentarium for assessing changes after the implementation of regulation measures. As a result of the research, the criterion for assessment of changes after regulation has been suggested, sequence of economic assessment of regulatory managerial decisions on improvement of the production-economic activity of enterprise has been determined, the possibility to track changes in the key indicators and calculate their relative change in order to determine the effectiveness of these decisions by comparing several regulatory decisions has been substantiated. The obtained results on the economic assessment of regulatory decisions allow automating of the process of analyzing measures to improve the performance of enterprise and serve as a component of information support for its leaders. The proposed economic-mathematical instrumentarium can be implemented to analyze the performance of a number of enterprises, which will provide to form a set of proposals to improve their competitiveness in general. Article is written in Ukrainian
Melikhova T. O.
A Conceptual Model for Calculating the Return of Costs Invested in the Creation of an Economic Security Service, During a Short-Term Period (p. 107 - 112)
The article is aimed at suggesting methods for calculating the short-term period of return of costs invested in creation of an economic security service. The article considers approaches to calculation of the period of return of costs, advanced at the level of enterprise, which build the methodical basis for definition of such period. At the level of structural subdivisions of enterprise, which do not produce products, it is suggested to use conditional money flow as a source of financing advanced costs. The calculation of the short-term return on investment at the enterprise level provides for: allocation of expenses for the permanent and the replacement parts during the year; determination of the production of money flow and the money flow accumulated during the year. Annual depreciation payments are the basis of fixed costs. Methods of determination of the gross, net, valid, and specified periods of return of costs, advanced during the year for introduction of an economic security service at enterprise, have been suggested. Article is written in Ukrainian
Nifatova O. M., Dudko P. M.
Ensuring the Regulatory Management of Brands in Terms of Integrated Business Structures (p. 113 - 120)
The article is aimed at formation of a system of ensuring the regulatory management of brands in terms of integrated business structures (IBS), which is a necessary condition for overcoming contradictions in the structures of management, formation of the system of connections and relationships between business units, occurring in the course of integration process under the influence of internal and external development factors. The article substantiates and proves that the regulation of business processes in the integrated business systems should be built on the basis of synthesizing the systemic, substrate, and process approaches. The formed system of ensuring of regulatory management of brands in terms of integrated business structures is based on modeling of business processes of the IBS branding according to the IDEF0 methodology. The step-by-step actions in accordance with the sequence of works to ensure the regulatory management of the IBS brands provide an opportunity to adequately evaluate the brands of integrating business units, which will create a strong competitive portfolio of brands, as well as provide synergy therein, which in turn will give the IBS business maneuverability and flexibility in changing conditions. Article is written in Ukrainian
Kuzmenko O. V., Ovcharenko V. O.
Assessing the Impact of Innovation Technologies on the Market of Banking Services in Ukraine (p. 121 - 126)
The article carries out the structural modeling of priority directions of development of banking system of Ukraine depending on the investment possibilities for introduction of innovation technologies of customer service. The relevant factors of the banking services market, investment market, and innovation market are identified and standardized. A multidimensional statistical and correlation analysis is carried out in the system of innovation technologies of banking services and investments. The causal relations between the main indicators of the functioning of components of this system are researched by implementing the multidimensional linear regression and factor analysis. Adequacy of the proposed econometric model has been proved on the basis of statistical indicators. As a result of practical approbation of the developed model on the example of the banking system of Ukraine it has been proved that development of the market of innovations and investments positively influences the level of development of the market of banking services. Article is written in Ukrainian
Brutman A. B.
The Category of Competitiveness as a Generalization of the Concept of Economic Potential of Enterprise (p. 127 - 134)
The article is aimed at analyzing the known definitions of the concept of competitiveness, in order to substantiate the methodologically more rigorous formulation of the definition of this concept, to identify the logical links between the concepts of competitiveness and indicators of the level of competitiveness, on the one hand, and the notions of economic potential of enterprise and its level, on the other. It is shown, that the postulation of the level of achievement of the main purpose of functioning of economic objects in defining the concept of competitiveness comes into logical contradiction with the substantial notions about competitiveness and the known methodical approaches to the measurement of its level. The definition of competitiveness of enterprise as ability of enterprise to generate net income in competitive environment without external assistance on a long basis is proposed. Logical links between the indicators of competitiveness and economic potential of enterprise have been disclosed, indicating that assessment of competitiveness is a generalized estimation of the forecast trajectory of the economic potential of enterprise, and the existing methods of assessing the level of competitiveness of enterprise and its economic potential need to be substantially elaborated in order to fully reflect the main features of the indicated characteristics in the relevant assessments. Article is written in Russian
Burennikova N. V., Yarmolenko V. О., Marchuk L. M.
The Practice of Using the Discriminant Analysis of the Efficiency of Processes of Functioning of Agricultural Enterprises on the Basis of Indicators of the Constituent Parts of Performance (p. 135 - 141)
The article considers the practice of using the method of discriminant analysis to study effectiveness of the processes of functioning of enterprises on the basis of indicators of the constituent parts of performance on the example of specific agricultural enterprises of the grain products subcomplex. It is underlined that when using benchmarking (as a method of competitive analysis) in many cases when researching the processes of functioning and development of enterprises (in particular, agricultural) there is a need to distribute the studied objects into individual groups according to the main strategic priorities. It is specified that one of the methods used for such distribution is the classic discriminant analysis, which allows to define the quantitative boundary that distinguishes the group of enterprises-leaders from all other enterprises. It has been found that the determining factor in the use of the specified method is the choice of a number of indicators characterizing the objects and processes allocated by using benchmarking. This choice, in turn, requires implementation of an appropriate algorithms based on simulation. As these indicators serve the authors’ indicators of efficiency and scale product, selected as the constituent parts of the performance indicator, characterizing any process and its results from both the qualitative and the quantitative points of view. The authors’ own approaches to the method of grouping of objects and allocation of strategically important groups among them have been proposed. Article is written in Ukrainian
Zelinska O. V.
Modeling the Complex Control Systems with Controlled Structure (p. 142 - 147)
The article is aimed at building the control processes of the complex system structure. One of the dominant tasks of the applied theory of complex systems is the task of building the control processes of the complex system structure. A solving of it is a necessary external addition to the problematics of well axiomatized mathematical theory of systems, which created the apparatus of researching the internal properties of the dynamic differential and finite dynamic systems (controllability, observability, etc.) and allows to solve the tasks of logical management of system structure and control of dynamics of subsystems in vector spaces. The computational scheme for modeling of systems with the managed structure has been defined as well. Practical application of graphs for analysis of such a class of systems provides all necessary information for numerical modeling of dynamic processes both on digital computers and on digital-analogue complexes. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №3-2018
Kaneva T. V., Dumikian A. К.
The Impact of Expenses of Budget Organizations on Economic Growth (p. 141 - 148)
It has been determined that budgetary policy has both the direct and the indirect impact on the rate of economic growth. According to the functional classification, the composition of expenses of budget institutions has been identified, their structure and dynamics in the period of 2007–2018 have been researched. A structural analysis of budget expenses in the context of economic classification was carried out, on the basis of which a specific group of expenses of budget institutions promoting the development of intellectual capital has been identified. The stochastic correlation between the rates of growth of own incomes and expenses of budget organizations on the development of human capital was investigated, and on this basis the potential of the budgetary sector in the context of financial autonomy has been estimated. An economic-mathematical model for determining the optimal composition of private investments, productive and non-productive budget expenses has been proposed. According to the built model, the following components of the budget expenses have been defined as productive ones, the growth of the specific weight of which in the overall structure leads to sustainable growth of the economy. Institutional barriers to increase the productivity of budget expenses were identified, considering their substitutionarity and complementarity. A correlation-regression analysis was carried out to determine the nature of impact of separate components of the budget expences on the economic dynamics. Article is written in Ukrainian
Oliynyk-Dunn O. O., Adamenko V. V.
The Financial Leverage Effect: Problems of Use in the Process of Optimization of the Enterprise Capital Structure (p. 148 - 154)
The article is aimed at clarifying the feasibility of optimizing the structure of the company’s capital based on the effect of financial leverage for the simplest situation – in the absence of profit taxation and without considering the dynamic aspects, related to changes in the total volume and composition of assets. On the basis of use of the recognized theoretical provisions – the Modigliani-Miller postulates – the authors illustrate the fundamental difference of results of the capital structure optimization by the criterion of maximizing the profitability of equity, which stipulates use of the effect of financial leverage, and on the criterion of maximizing the value of the owners capital. It has been concluded about the disadvantage for owners of implementation in the above-mentioned static situation of any revision of the capital structure accompanied by an increase in the financial leverage ratio, as it does not lead to an increase in the value of enterprise, but only provides a threat to its decline, and worsens financial security. Building of any optimization models of the enterprise’s capital structure, including those based on use of the effect of financial leverage, has been recognized as not expedient in the considered situation. Article is written in Ukrainian
Kremen V. M., Bochkarova T. О.
Assessing the Country’s Financial Security (p. 155 - 161)
The article is aimed at assessing the level of financial security of Ukraine, using the instrumentarium for calculating the integrated indicators for each component, during the period from 2005 to 2016. As result of the research, a significant decrease in the level of banking security, security of the non-banking financial sector, as well as debt and budget security have been identified. There was also an unsatisfactory level of foreign exchange security during 2008–2010 and 2015, while in the course of 2006–2007, 2011–2012, in 2014 and 2016, the level was average. The integral indicator of monetary security during the researched period did not exceed the mark of 0,4 points, that is, its level did not reach even the average. In general we can note the average level of financial security in Ukraine in 2005–2007 and 2009–2013, but its level in 2008 and 2014–2016 was unsatisfactory. Prospects for future researches in this direction are improvement of scientific-methodical approaches to the assessment of financial security of the country and determination of ways and directions of increase of the level of financial security. Article is written in Ukrainian
Prushkivskiy V. H., Buriak V. V.
Assessing the Neoindustrial Factors of Development of Industrial City in Conditions of Decentralization (p. 162 - 167)
The article researches the neoindustrial factors influencing development of industrial city. Their quantitative assessment is carried out on the basis of use of the index method together with a multiplicative model which allows taking account of and harmonizing the low and high values of indicators, also determining the degree of conformity of the calculated index with conditions of reality. The index of development of industrial city is defined on the basis of three sub-indices: knowledge index, innovations index, information-communication technologies index. On the basis of calculation of the index of development of industrial city under influence of neoindustrial factors the low level of development of industrial city is defined. It has been determined that the level of innovative development is high and reaches 0,519, while the level of knowledge is lower, reaching 0,438. The general index of knowledge and innovations for Zaporizhzhya is 0,476, which demonstrates the insufficient level of the development of industrial city under the influence of the newest factors. It is concluded that the incomplete and inefficient use of potential opportunities results in a relatively low level of the development of industrial city from the point of view of the three-vector model of «knowledge ? innovations ? information-communication technologies». This requires the search for an efficient instrumentarium that will allow the development of city on the basis of positive impact of neoindustrial factors. Article is written in Ukrainian
Melikhova T. O.
The Conceptual Model of Calculating the Return Period of the Costs for Creation of the Enterprise’s Economic Security Service in the Short-Term Period (p. 167 - 173)
Determination of the return period of the costs, advanced for the creation of economic security service of enterprise during a year, involves consideration of interaction of the conditional money flow, accumulated for a certain number of months, and the constant costs. The main component of the constant costs are the annual depreciation deductions. The return period is considered as gross, net, valid, and specified. The gross (net, valid, and specified) return period is the time, wherein the gross conditional money flow, equal to the advanced costs, will be accumulated. The gross return period, taking account of the effect of time factor, is proposed to be defined as the ratio of annual depreciation deductions increased by the annual compounding coefficient to the conditional average monthly gross money flow, increased by the average monthly inflation index. As for the short-term period, a relationship between the gross, net, valid, and specified return periods of the costs, advanced to the creation of the economic security service, has been identified. The net (valid, specified) return period is equal to the gross period adjusted to the coefficient of excess of the gross conditional money flow, accumulated in the gross period, over the net (valid, specified) conditional cash flow. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №4-2018
Andrenko O. A., Mordovtsev S. M.
The Methodical Approach to Selective Research in Audit (p. 116 - 122)
The research is aimed at developing a methodical approach to the attributed selective study, which will provide timely identification of errors in the process of document formation, as well as developing proposals to reduce the level of possible deviations. A generalization of the studies on the audit sample indicates the lack of common opinion and approach to the use and practical application of selective methods in the audit. In terms of methodical approach the purpose, tasks, stages of formation of the attributed selective research are defined by means of the statistical method, allowing to establish a sample volume and the upper limit of accuracy according to the stratification of a sample. The calculations of the upper limit of the confidence interval for the determined deviation share, depending on the number of deviations and the permissible error, are presented. Prospects for further research in this direction are development of an approach to monetary selective researches in the audit. Article is written in Ukrainian
Voronin A. V., Gunko O. V.
The Dynamic Models of International Trade Exchange (p. 123 - 132)
This publication presents the ways of formalization of various organizational structures of foreign economic activity. Construction of appropriate mathematical models is based on the methodology of matrix analysis of international economic relations, allowing to consider the corresponding complex economic objects as a single system on phenomenological level. The article is aimed at building a linear dynamic model of international trade in discrete time to analyze the corresponding transient processes from the initial state to the established equilibrium mode. Also the three-dimensional model of trade with a different specificity of matrix structure and with various share participation in exchange of goods is researched. The necessary computer simulation of evolutionary processes is accomplished and corresponding graphic dependencies are provided. The mathematical models of international trade exchange dynamics presented in this study can have a wide spectrum of application and be used in corresponding econometric calculations. Article is written in Ukrainian
Ivashchenko P. A.
The Statistical Hypotheses on Randomness of Factor Relations and Interrelations of Socio-Economic Processes (p. 133 - 138)
The models of factor relations and interrelations of socio-economic processes are based on the corresponding theoretical and economic provisions and hypotheses. In the presence of statistical data, analytical or econometric models (model systems) can be constructed. Checking of adequacy of the models commonly uses the Fisher Criterion, determination coefficient and other instruments. The econometric approach presupposes the presence of unaccounted factors in the model, which are assumed to be coincidental with certain law of distribution. The hypothesis of presence/absence of randomness in the interaction of factors is not put forward as such. The article considers the possibility of applying the econometric approach in general. The criteria for assessing the presence of the factor of randomness of relations and interrelations of time series have been developed. The method of certain intervals for estimation of character of relations and interrelations between the factors that characterize socio-economic processes is proposed. Simulation experiments confirming the capacity of the method of evaluating the action of the random factor in socio-economic processes were carried out. Prospect for further researches would be development of a common methodology for econometric modeling, taking into consideration the nature of interrelations and relations between factors. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №5-2018
Mamonov K. A., Prunenko D. O., Uhodnikova O. I.
The Economic-Mathematical Modeling of the Formation of Intellectual Capital as an Element of Strategic Management (p. 155 - 159)
The article is concerned with search for ways to increase the efficiency of use of intellectual capital in construction enterprises by building an economic-mathematical model of evaluation, formation of intellectual capital on the basis of the researched theoretical-methodological provisions of its use. The basis of the proposed model is the structuring of intellectual capital and its evaluation by introducing an integral indicator with its subsequent interpretation. Increasing the efficiency of using the intellectual capital of construction enterprises is one of the elements of formation of competitiveness taking into consideration requirements of the modern market of construction services. The article defines the problems and prospects for the formation and evaluation of intellectual capital taking account of the specifics of construction production. Upon results of the research, a structural-logical model of managing intellectual capital according to the specifics of construction industry has been developed. Article is written in Ukrainian
Riabykina N. I.
The Substantiation of the Mechanism for Assessing the Usage of Fixed Assets at the Enterprises of the Mining and Processing Complex of Kryvbas (p. 160 - 167)
The article substantiates that the final results of the enterprise’s economic activity depend on the status and efficiency of usage of fixed assets, and increasing the efficiency of using them is one of the main and topical issues in the conditions of market relations. Of particular importance in this aspect is the functioning of enterprises of the mining and processing complex of Ukraine and the Kryvyy Rih iron ore basin (Kryvbas). It is determined that current approaches to the formation and usage of fixed assets of enterprise are predominantly of fragmentary nature in terms of innovation development and efficiency of usage of fixed assets and their components, and do not account the sectoral specifics of mining and processing enterprises. Having a clear idea of the role of fixed assets and the factors that impact their usage in the production process, as a result of analysis of the formation and use of fixed assets in terms of production and economic activities of the mining and processing enterprise, it was concluded about expediency to apply economic and mathematical modeling in determining the rate of return on assets, which serves as a criterion for optimizing the mechanism for assessing the usage of fixed assets, considering an expanded range of the impacting factors. Article is written in Ukrainian
Kovalova K. O., Misiura I. Y.
The Program Implementation of the Task of Distribution of Vehicles with Fixed Surcharges (p. 167 - 173)
The article is aimed at mathematical and computer simulation of the transport task of distribution of vehicles with fixed surcharges, or the task with discontinuous objective functions. The main attention was paid to the building of a mathematical model of the situational optimization task, which is often encountered in transportation practice, but does not have a universal approach to its solution. For this type of transport task, both general content and mathematical staging, together with a concrete example of their solution, are provided. The authors have deliberately chosen for the task of distributing vehicles with fixed surcharges an example with a small dimension of transport routes. The purpose is to increase the visibility and simplify the consideration of issues of their mathematical modeling. The issues of computer modeling of such tasks are considered in the article separately. For the first time, a new approach to solving them has been proposed: not only by means of computer mathematics, such as Excel and MATLAB, but using the genetic algorithm of «behavior of bees’ swarm», which has showed the best result in terms of the number of iterations. That, in turn, allows to apply the latter algorithm for the tasks with larger dimensions. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №6-2018
Burennikova N. V., Yarmolenko V. О., Yurchenko O. M.
The Practice of Using Game Models to Analyze the Risks of the Operation Processes of Agricultural Enterprises Based on the Indicators of Components of Effectiveness (p. 153 - 159)
The article proposes the methodology of practical use of game theory for analyzing of risks of subprocessions of operational processes of agricultural enterprises on the basis of models of components of effectiveness by Burennikova (Polishchuk) – Yarmolenko and relevant indicators. The methodology is considered on the example of processes of formation of gross incomes at five agricultural enterprises of grain products subcomplex as subprocesses of operational processes of these enterprises. A certain payment matrix for the case of non-strategic game (playing with nature) was built. A gains matrix would generate a risk matrix. Two risk matrices are obtained, depending on the two formulas according to which the elements of these matrices are calculated. According to the data of these two risk matrices, the maximum risk values are found in each row, and two corresponding column matrices are drawn from these values. On the basis of the mentioned column matrices, a ranking of risks of functioning of the considered enterprises is carried out. The article researches the risks of functioning of enterprises in terms of effectiveness. Similarly, one can research the mentioned risks from the standpoint of efficiency. Article is written in Ukrainian
Klebanova T. S., Rudachenko O. O.
Identifying the Influence of Negative and Positive Factors of Activity of Thermal Power Enterprises on the Final Result (p. 160 - 165)
Thermal energy of the country is one of the most important components of activity of the State and local authorities, where the main task, first of all, is to provide quality services in heat supply to the population. However, nowadays thermal power and the sphere of consumption of thermal energy of Ukraine are in a crisis. The article considers the main advantages and importance of breakeven activity of thermal power industry enterprises directly. The application of factor analysis is substantiated and it is identified, what factors cause influence on the financial result of enterprises. On the example of the largest heat-power enterprise of Ukraine and with the help of four-factor model, influence of separate factors on change of income was researched in order to identify reserves of improvement of the enterprise’s management of financial results. The calculations showed that the management should immediately take preventive measures, which will enable to improve the the enterprise’s financial results in the future to eliminate the impact of negative factors. Article is written in Ukrainian
Sharko M. V., Gusarina N. V.
Modeling and Forecasting of Economic Development Processes in Conditions of Dynamic Changes of External Environment (p. 166 - 172)
The article is aimed at building the functions of forecasting the indicators of economic development of production, represented by time series. Modeling of changes of financial-economic indicators of production in short and medium-term perspectives is considered. The methodology of detection of anomalies of a time series together with significance of their influence on values of the basic characteristics of a time series is provided. It is substantiated, that forecasting of processes of economic development of enterprises is most optimally executed by means of polynomial quadratic approximation. Use of the proposed approach allows to exclude subjectivity of expert estimation and to increase accuracy and reliability of forecasts. The prospect of further researches in this direction is comparison of real production data of financial-economic indicators of dynamic series with the calculated trends and adaptation to current conditions. Further development of modeling and forecasting of processes of economic development implements the process of constant updating of the model depending on influences of surrounding factors, bringing closer the characteristics of mathematical model to real data. Article is written in Ukrainian
Gomeniuk M. O.
The Innovative Forms of Entrepreneurial Activity in the Agricultural Sector of Ukrainian Economy (p. 173 - 179)
The article is aimed at substantiating the need for variative regional policy based on the availability of sustainable spatial models of entrepreneurial efforts of agricultural activity at the regional level, formed under the influence of temporal and spatial effects. On the basis of econometric calculations, an analysis of the presence of stable spatial models of small and medium business development in the sphere of agriculture is carried out. A ranking of regions of Ukraine according to the criteria of entrepreneurial activity in the sphere of agriculture is carried out. Based on the use of Pearson correlation coefficient, interregional clusters with concentration of the regions-leaders (Kyiv, Kyiv region and Polissya) and the region-outsider (Donbass) are allocated. The results of the econometric calculations indicate that the process of creation and development of small enterprises as a whole is neither stochastic nor completely deterministic, and therefore is exposed to external influence, including measures of the State support. It is summarized that in regions with low level of development of agriculture be necessary to introduce additional measures on providing the State regulation, in particular in the direction of improvement of the investment climate, improvement of the level of social policies to support agricultural entrepreneurship, etc. Article is written in Ukrainian
Ivashchenko P. A., Hlushach Y. S., Ivanova V. B.
The Quazi-Adaptive Forecasting of Innovation Activity of Ukrainian Enterprises (p. 180 - 185)
With the help of the quazi-adaptive model of innovative activity of enterprises of Ukraine, the forecast estimations of the indicator of innovative activity of enterprises of Ukraine for 2019–2021 have been found and researched. The idea of the quazi-adaptive forecasting method consists in accounting the changes in the parameter mark in adaptive models. The behavior of the indicator of innovative activity of Ukrainian enterprises has a characteristic cyclicity that resembles a bucket or cezve in a cut. This figure is suggested to be called the «innovation bucket». The decrease of innovation activity of enterprises in the average by one percent is forecasted. The quazi-adaptive approach to forecasting of innovative activity of enterprises allows to take into consideration not only the adaptive features of behavior of a time series as a whole, but also features of the mark changes present in the model of parameters, interrelation of its components. This makes possible to explore the internal structure of the time series and is positive for practical use. Article is written in Ukrainian
Sherstennikov Y. V., Rudianova T. M., Brytska V. Y.
The Model Optimization of Production Capacity of Enterprise (p. 186 - 192)
The publication is concerned with development of one of the methods of simulation of the logistics system (LS) of enterprise. The article is aimed, using the approach of J. Forrester, to develop a simulation model on the basis of which it is possible to perform model optimization of production capacity of a mono-production enterprise. In the publication the system of equations which describe LS of enterprise is formulated. Imitation modeling is implemented by means of the system of mathematical equations, put in the basis of the computer programs which have provided to carry out modeling of performance of LS in the mode of «imitation» of structure taking into consideration parameters of LS. Calculations of the time dynamics of all the rates of logistics system (production rate, rate of transportation), as well as the dynamics of the levels of goods in the wholesale warehouse and in the retail network were performed. The optimization task of determining the maximum economic efficiency as a function of planned production capacity is formulated. By means of numerical calculations is proved that there is a single point of maximum economic efficiency as a function of the planned capacity of enterprise. Article is written in Ukrainian
Touzani Tarik
The Comparative Analysis of Methods and Models of Management of Behavior of Socio-Economic Systems (p. 193 - 200)
This publication is concerned with the comparative analysis of existing methods and models of behavior management of socio-economic systems (SES). A significant number of works by domestic and foreign scholars on the issues of economic-mathematical modelling of SES were analyzed. A classification of methodological schemes of SES modeling is proposed. Both macro-economic and micro-economic models have been allocated. Special attention is given to consideration of models of dynamics of socio-economic systems, in particular models of dynamics of time series; models of unevenness and cyclicity of development; scenario models of development; theories of fuzzy sets and neural networks. The provided classification of methodological schemes of modeling of open SES is not complete, however gives the general idea of applied methods and models and allows to choose adequate research instruments according to the set purpose taking into consideration the limiting factors, which, unfortunately, are present in each of the described modeling schemes. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №7-2018
Dilenko V. О., Gulyaeva N. A., Kovtun K. O.
The Mathematical Modeling of Formation of Economic Effects of Combining Production Systems Considering the Innovation Factor (p. 90 - 95)
The article is aimed at developing an economic-mathematical instrumentarium for defining and analyzing the economical effects of combining production systems considering the innovation factor. The publication allocates a complex of the basic and derivative economic effects reflecting influence of the implemented integration processes as separate factors of various nature (rational technological interrelations, innovation activity, aggregate interaction) and their possible combinations on economic results. In order to determine the specified effects in terms of the «costs-output» models, optimization tasks have been formulated that describe the functioning of individual production subsystems, taking attention of the possibility of conducting an innovation activity and their Interaction within a single system. The numerical analysis of the built models was carried out that allowed to identify some specific features of formation of the discussed economic effects. Possible direction of further researches on the given subject can be connected with development of mathematical models reflecting various forms (economic mechanisms) of integration of production systems, and with comparative analysis of efficiency of their implementation. Article is written in Russian
Feshchur R. V., Zhuk L. V.
Modeling of Financial and Economic Results of the System of Scientific and Scientific-Technical Activity of Higher Education Institution (p. 96 - 103)
The article is aimed at developing theoretical and methodological foundations for planning activities of the system of scientific and scientific-technical activity of higher education institution and to assess the influence of various factors on its financial and economic effectiveness. The models of dependence of financial and economic results of scientific and scientific-technical activity on the time are provided, the factors influencing their formation are determined and researched. The multi-factor regression models are built, describing dependence of the effective attributes – volumes of financial receipts in the general and the special funds of university budget due to the implementation of scientific research and development – from factor variables (number of published articles in the peer-reviewed scientific editions, as well as publications, indexed by scientometrical databases, number of patents). The developed models can be considered as an instrument for management of system of the scientific and scientific-technical activity of university on attraction of financing to the general fund of university from performance of scientific-research works (fundamental and applied research, scientific and technical developments, financed from the State budget of the Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine). Article is written in Ukrainian
Mamonova H. V., Derevyanko V. M.
The Strategic Model of Development of Intellectual Capital to Ensure Ukraine’s Competitiveness (p. 104 - 109)
The article is aimed at building a strategic model of development priority of intellectual capital components to ensure Ukraine’s competitiveness. The scheme of the stages of assessment of intellectual capital at the national level is provided. The most important and final stage is the building of a strategic model of intellectual capital development. The basic components of intellectual capital are allocated through important spheres of development of national economy. Using the method of paired comparisons, weight coefficients for the priority components of intellectual capital as a factor of competitiveness of Ukraine have been found. It is suggested to use the built model of development of intellectual capital for improvement of competitive positions of the country. Article is written in Ukrainian
Makhsma M. B., Voloshchuk S. D.
Mathematical Modeling of the Relationship between Employment and Living Standards of the Rural Population (p. 109 - 115)
The article is aimed at building a econometric model of the relationship between employment of the rural population of Ukraine and its standard of living, as well as studying the possibilities of using the model to substantiate measures for the improvement. To simulate such a relationship, the number of employed rural population of working age is taken as a performance indicator. On the basis of correlation analysis of structural relations the factors influencing the employment are determined. It is proved that significantly influencing variables are the following: number of general daytime education institutions, number of children in preschool institutions, number of libraries and club establishments. The performed check of the model confirmed its adequacy and statistical significance of factor attributes. It is substantiated that development of objects of rural social infrastructure will help to increase employment and living standards in rural areas. Article is written in Ukrainian
Yarmolenko V. О., Burennikova N. V.
The Practice of Measuring the Energies of Products of the Process of System Functioning on the Basis of Performance Components (p. 115 - 121)
The article considers the practice of measuring the energies of products of the process of system functioning on the basis of performance components. It is underlined that methodological approaches to the practice of measuring the energies of products require the implementation of appropriate algorithms based on modeling. The approaches to measurement of these energies on the basis of the use of certain authors’ formulas, which in turn are based on the application of indicators of the components of performance of subprocesses of system functioning processes, are suggested. On the example of both the economic and the pedagogical systems is displayed the possibility of practical implementation of the methods of measuring the energies of products of subprocesses of processes of systems functioning, as is discovered by the authors, that is the scientific novelty of the proposed results of the research. The presented methodology reinforces and diversifies existing aspects in the context of the analysis of concepts and processes based on the energy approach. Article is written in Ukrainian
Rozheliuk V. M., Khorunzhak N. M., Denchuk P. N.
The Organizational and Methodical Foundations of Optimization of Costs Connected with Supply of Raw Materials (p. 122 - 130)
The article is aimed at researching possibilities of optimizing production costs by minimizing the costs of raw material delivery based on the use of graph theory. In the analysis of dependence of deliveries from various factors the solutions of the task of optimum planning of production costs on supply of enterprise with raw materials are considered and elaborated. Generalization, analysis, systematization, formalization and modeling, applied in the course of the research, provided an opportunity to develop the theoretical and organizational foundations of accountance of the costs in terms of operating activity of economic entities on the basis of graph theory. The main task in this case was to provide cost optimization, formation of a graph-model of the optimal level of costs for the purchase of products for processing was selected as its constituent. The optimization model is formalized and substantiated, as well as recommendations for its practical implementation (formation of a monitoring commission and a system of documentary support) are offered, which will reduce the costs of time of the accounting workers on technical, routine operations thanks to mechanisms for simplification of algorithms of calculations and formation of output data. Article is written in Ukrainian
Ivanov R. V., Porohnya V. M.
The Formation of Economic Behavior of Households of Ukraine under the Influence of Inflation Processes (p. 131 - 137)
The main aim of the publication is clarifying the causal relations between inflationary processes in Ukraine and the formation of strategies for economic behavior of households. The study showed that the existence of institutional traits of a particular household, such as socio-economic education, which is formed under the influence of endogenous and exogenous factors, directly influence the definition of the strategy of economic behavior aimed at overcoming (preventing) the negative effects of inflationary processes. It is specified that strategies, depending on the intensity of actions, can be divided into active, proactive, reactive, and passive. At the same time, analyzing of available statistical information plus economic and mathematical modeling allow to assert that in modern conditions proactive strategy, consisting in reinvestment of funds into own human capital or participation in the State training programs may have a positive effect in the short and medium term. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №8-2018
Moskovkin V. M., Xingyuan Sun, Zhuravka A. V.
The Weighted Aggregation of Ranked Objects by the Arbitrary Totality of Other Objects (p. 57 - 60)
The task of distribution of the ranked objects by the smaller number of other objects is set. The first objects are named objects of the first kind, the second objects are the objects of the second kind. The rating of the totality of objects of the first kind, included on the attribute of belonging in the object of the second kind, is suggested to be calculated through the procedure of the weighted aggregation which represents a product of number of the above mentioned objects of the first kind and the average weight coefficient calculated through the average rank (rating) of the totality of the objects of the first kind. An example of such a task is the distribution of ranked universities by the world countries according to one of the global world ratings. The task is extended to the calculation of the integral rank (rating) for an arbitrary number of rankings of different objects of the first kind, distributed on the given number of objects of the second kind. Article is written in Russian
Svidruk I. I.
The Index of Creative Activity of the National Economic System (p. 61 - 69)
The article is aimed at determining the level of creative activity of the national economic system. The systemic vision of the estimation indices for the measurement of the index of creative activity of the national economic system is submitted. The value of partial indicators of creative activity by regions of Ukraine in 2013–2017 is provided. The components of creative activity by the regions of Ukraine are defined. The ranking of regions by the level of creative activity is carried out, and the regions-leaders and the regions-outsiders are identified. The three-dimensional visualization of dependence of the level of creative activity of Ukraine by regions from the «talent» and «technology» levels is induced. The basic prerequisites for sustainable development of the creative potential of regions of Ukraine are defined. It is substantiated that the calculated total index of creative activity is a weighted aggregate indicator, which allows to evaluate the status of creative-innovative activity. Article is written in Ukrainian
Iankovyi O. G., Hrinchenko R. V.
Using Business Models as Elements of Business Engineering of Enterprises (p. 70 - 75)
The article is aimed at researching the theoretical approaches to formation of business models of enterprises, their main components, methods, directions together with their influence on the possibilities of adaptation of enterprises as the main elements of business engineering of enterprises. Modern theoretical approaches to definition of the concepts of «business engineering» and «reengineering» are analyzed. A definition of «business engineering» is proposed. The modern approaches to formation of business models of activity of enterprises are traced. The existing business models are distributed according to the level of their theoretical and empirical substantiation. It has been found that the combination of several approaches to the formation of business models gives enterprises the opportunity to form a truly effective business model of their activities. The use of theoretically based business models provides an opportunity to select components for the enterprise’s functioning and build an empirically substantiated business model upon their basis. Such an approach represents the opportunities for the enterprise to approach the formation of the business-engineering system in a comprehensive way, using the global theoretical achievements in this sphere, and to take into consideration its own practical differences. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №9-2018
Savina G. G., Dzhereliuk I. O.
The Simulation Modeling of Anti-Crisis Sustainability of Enterprise in the Competitive Environment (p. 92 - 98)
The article is aimed at studying the issue of simulation modeling of competitive position according to the level of anti-crisis sustainability and the level of system provision of anti-crisis sustainability of enterprise in the competitive environment. The scientific-methodical approach is developed, allowing to form analytical parameters of anti-crisis sustainability of enterprises in two informative aggregates: indicator of competitive position according to the level of anti-crisis sustainability of enterprise and indicator of the level of system provision of anti-crisis sustainability of enterprise. A practical technology of simulation modeling and scenario approach is presented in terms of formation of competitive position according to the level of anti-crisis sustainability and system provision of anti-crisis sustainability of enterprise, including setting of tasks and building a simulation model. A visualization of the simulation model of the competitive position according to the the level of external anti-crisis sustainability and the level of system provision of the external anti-crisis sustainability of enterprise is provided with graphical means of the СКМ Maple. It is substantiated that the use of simulation modeling and scenario approach results in increasing the opportunities for the activities of enterprises and allows to strengthen their positions in the competitive environment. Article is written in Ukrainian
Khazan P. V.
Using Factor Analysis to Evaluate the Development of Renewable Energy Sources (p. 98 - 104)
In the publication, using factor analysis and method of major components, the main factors influencing the development of renewable energy sources are identified and substantiated on the example of Europe. The study applies the Bartlett’s criterion of sphericity and the calculation of the adequacy grade of the sample of Kaiser-Mayer-Olkina. The calculation is made by means of the IBM SPSS Statistics software. The most important factors of the development of renewable energy sources have been determined using the data array for the last 10 years. The number of main components has been defined, also the correlation matrix, the matrix of components, the covariance matrix and the component diagram have been built. A system of linear equations of dependent factors and the main components, which is based on the calculated data, is presented. The carried out research has showed that the greatest dispersion is made by components such as total energy production from renewable energy sources, total power of renewable energy sources and final energy consumption, which in the total make up 90.6%. An analysis of factors in accordance with the obtained calculations is carried out. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №10-2018
Kaminsky O. E.
A Methodological Approach to the Building of Complex Cloud Services (p. 131 - 136)
The article is aimed at researching of theoretical and methodological approaches to the building of complex cloud services; evaluating the basic structural elements of service and the methods of comparative analysis of variants in implementing cloud services with attention to functional requirements as to the created cloud service and parameters of QoS. The current status of models of development of cloud services is analyzed, relevance of researching the methods and models of creation and functioning of systems of complex cloud services is substantiated. A methodical approach to the problem of projecting complex cloud service on the basis of the advanced method of analysis of complex systems, taking account of quantitative and qualitative parameters of its structural elements, is proposed. This method will allow defining a set of projecting solutions for cloud services that would reflect the developer’s requirements towards the functionality and quality of performance of cloud services. Cloud technology is an alternative to the traditional model of local use of hardware and software and can affect the balance of power in the global and national markets, both software and hardware. Thus, being of considerable practical interest, the problem of research of processes of building and functioning of cloud services is relevant and requires special attention. Article is written in Ukrainian
Obolentseva L. V.
The Methodical Approach to Evaluation of the Current Status of Industry of Ukraine (p. 136 - 142)
The article develops a methodical approach to evaluation of the current status of industry of Ukraine on the basis of multifactorial analysis. For clarification of tendencies of development and problems of industrial complex of Ukraine the structure of gross added value is researched according to types of economic activity in market prices during 2010–2017 using the quarterly statistical data related to industrial branches. A correlation analysis of gross domestic product and gross value added is carried out by types of economic activity of industry. A very high dependence of the value of gross domestic product on the results of economic activity in all directions of industrial production is indicated. Resulting from the approximation using the polynomial trend, it is determined that gross value added of all directions of economic activity of industry together with gross domestic product are functionally dependent on the time. It is concluded that the proposed methodical approach to evaluation of the current status of industry of Ukraine on the basis of multifactorial analysis provides not only to determine the influence of gross value added of each of the directions of economic activity of industry, but also to identify how quickly Ukraine’s GDP reacts to a crisis or stabilization of all sectors of the country’s economy. Article is written in Ukrainian
Shpak S. O.
The Factors of Potentials of Industrial Enterprise: Concept and Features of These as Objects of Management of Restructuring (p. 143 - 151)
The article is aimed at clarifying the content of the concept of «factor of potential» and researching the most common characteristics of factors of economic potential of industrial enterprise on the basis of interpretation of an mathematical model of optimization type potential along with its individual components, as well as the solutions of the corresponding optimization tasks. It is demonstrated that in economic-mathematical models of potential, the multitude of factors of economic potential corresponds to the multitude of parameters of status of enterprise and external environment of its functioning, where any change of every single parameter leads to change of the numerical setting of the corresponding optimization task and its solution, i.e. the value of potential, which justifies relevance of the construction and analysis of the potential functions of enterprise, as well as developing of methodological support for the solution of the tasks indicated. Is determined that among the most general properties of factors of enterprise’s potential as objects of managing influences are the following: hierarchy of structure of factors; multidirectionality of influence of factors on the value of potential up to the opposite; trigger mode of influence of factor at which this or that factor in some conditions can be significant, and in other insignificant; complex nature of the influencing factor on the magnitude of potential, including the dependence of nature and force of the influence on the status of other factors. Article is written in Russian
BUSINESS INFORM №11-2018
Averkyna M. F., Kondratiuk Y. S.
The Methodical Bases of Evaluation of Sustainable Territory Development (p. 147 - 153)
Ensuring sustainable development of the country requires the availability of objective information about the level of such development, as well as the formation of an effective methodology for evaluation. The method of determining the efficiency of sustainable development should take attention of all territorial, national and other features of territories and thus be as efficient as possible. In the application of foreign methods there are difficulties associated with the need to modify them in accordance with the Ukrainian conditions. And this, in turn, makes relevant the search for a unique method developed for Ukraine only. As a result of the given research the method of production of the maximum entropy is suggested, and on the basis of the proposed method the integral indicator of sustainable development is defined. This methodology allows to evaluate the level of sustainable development of the territories taking account of the balance between social, economic, and ecological components. Article is written in Ukrainian
Markov M. Y.
The Directions of Development of Methodical Approaches to Evaluating and Forecasting of Bankruptcy of Enterprises (p. 154 - 161)
The article is aimed at generalizing the information on methods and models of evaluation and forecasting of the risk of enterprise bankruptcy, allocating their advantages and disadvantages; critical analyzing the methods and models regarding their matching of Ukrainian realities; developing proposals on creation of models of evaluating and forecasting the probability of bankruptcy of Ukrainian enterprises. The statistical methods are described and analyzed, namely the Argenti method, single-factorial discriminant analysis, multi-factorial discriminant analysis, logit-models, probit-models, as well as methods of artificial intelligence: decision trees, artificial neural networks, genetic algorithms, models based on fuzzy logic. A detailed review of existing models on the basis of multi-factorial discriminant analysis is made, special attention is paid to current researches of methods of artificial intellect. It is determined that according to the results of many scientific researches the methods of fuzzy logic, artificial neural networks and fuzzy neural networks are more effective and perspective for further researches concerning evaluation and forecasting of probability of bankruptcy than classical statistical methods, including for Ukrainian enterprises. Article is written in Ukrainian
Lepeyko T. I., Shcherbak A. M.
The Formation of the System of Indicators for Estimation of Efficiency of Information Process of Industrial Enterprise Management (p. 161 - 167)
The article is aimed at researching the efficiency of the information process of industrial enterprise management. To ensure the brevity of information provision of the management process in industrial enterprises with the help of the expert method the basic qualitative characteristics of information were defined, which ensure its completeness and achieving the brevity of information array. The system of indicators for estimation of information process is analyzed and formed with the purpose of determination of possibility and expediency of its use in industrial enterprise management. The model of hierarchy of prioritization of indicators of estimation of information processes of enterprise management is offered. The authors define the most important criteria for estimating the efficiency of use of information processes in the management of industrial enterprise, i.e. authenticity, appropriateness, content-richness and completeness. Article is written in Ukrainian
Pilko A. D., Chaban O. M.
Modeling the Process of Optimization of Budget Structure of the Marketing Communications of Investment-Construction Company (p. 167 - 173)
The article highlights the results of carried out research of existing practice of management of the system of marketing communications in case of an investment-construction company. On the results of studying the existing approaches to carryig out evaluation and analysis of efficiency of marketing communication costs, a proper approach to optimizing the cost structure is proposed. The use of applied econometric instrumentarium together with the possibilities of optimization modeling have allowed to offer an own approach to solving the problem of optimization processes of management of the marketing communications system of investment-construction company in the context of the main projects of its investment activity. Taking account of the lag effect of changing economic conditions has provided an opportunity to form a scheme of movement of funds of company and on its basis to implement optimization models. Practical application of the developed approach allowed to determine the amount of the underreceived economic effect from investing in marketing communications both for each individual project and in their totality. Article is written in Ukrainian
Manzhos T. V., Melnyk O. O., Lutsyshyna Z. V.
The Model of Management of Inventory with Fuzzy Triangular Demand (p. 174 - 179)
The publication presents the algorithm of building the inventory management model, provided that unknown demand for resource is modeled with use of fuzzy logic. The algorithm can be applied also for an innovative product or service, when history data on demand are absent. Thus, based on the observations of demand for such goods and on the basis of experts’ judgment, the predicted value of demand can be represented as a triangular fuzzy number. As a result, the values of the cost function of the inventory management system are respectively fuzzy numbers. For the defazification of this function, the method of median was used in the work, resulting in a real value function of the cost. To find optimal strategies for the operation of the inventory management system, the criterion of minimizing the cost function obtained by the given algorithm was used, which allowed to record optimal solutions of the problem explicitly. The theoretical material is illustrated by numerical examples. The obtained algorithm of search for optimum strategies can be used at developing the software for optimization of procurement at production place in view of absence of history of previous sales. Article is written in Ukrainian
Ivanov R. V., Ivanova T. A.
The Modified Two-Factor Model of the Profitable Behavior of Households (p. 180 - 186)
The main aim of the publication is clarifying of the influence of the motivational-stimulating factor of forming the profitable behavior of households for its detailizing, taking attention of the characteristic features of specific households by adjusting the form and parameters of dynamic models. A logarithmic form of the quantitative-qualitative evaluation of the motivational-stimulating factor is proposed, based on the economic interpretation of the psycho-physiological Weber-Fechner’s law. The built motivation function allows coordinating of endogenous and exogenous features by means of setting the level of satisfaction with incomes ensuring the minimum needs of the household. Comparison of its dynamics depending on the level of incomes with dynamics if function of motivation, which value is determined by a linear deviation between the full «satisfaction» with incomes and the actual in percents, displayed the existence of plots with ultra high motivation that correspond to lower than the minimum that should be regarded as a manifestation of formation of the economic behaviour in crisis. The built model is characterized by limited rationality and corresponds to the theory of institutionalism. Article is written in Ukrainian
Potrashkova L. V.
The Support of Decision-Making for Strategic Planning of the Socially Responsible Activity of Enterprise on the Basis of Evaluation of its Potential (p. 187 - 201)
Decisions as to management of enterprise, in accordance with the principles of social responsibility, must be based on results of an analysis of the potential of the enterprise. The existing support for decision-making in the area of corporate social responsibility does not provide an instrumentarium for such an analysis. The proposed methodical provisions describe the information provision and the mathematical instrumentarium for support of decision-making at different stages of strategic planning of the socially responsible activity of enterprise. As the main decision-making criterion applies the value of the potential of enterprise. As the basic mathematical instrumentarium for support of decision-making are used: 1) model of strategic potential of resource reproduction of enterprise subject to observance of regulations in terms of social responsibility; 2) decision-making model for choosing from a variety of socially responsible enterprise strategies. The proposed methodical positions allow to analyze the prospects of activity of enterprise in the aspect of implementing the shared social responsibility objectives and strengthening the potential of enterprise in their interrelationship. Article is written in Ukrainian
Rayevnyeva O. V., Stepurina S. O.
The Structural Analysis of the Management Systems of Organizational Autonomy of University (p. 202 - 206)
The article is aimed at the structural analysis of quality of performance of the management system of organizational autonomy of higher educational institution using the instrumentarium of systems analysis. The carried out analysis of topical researches on development of university autonomy in the national higher educational institutions allowed to identify that especially the analysis of organizational management structures of university autonomy is given insufficient attention. The study resulted in identifying some specific characteristics and shortcomings in the management system of organizational autonomy of university, defining its weaknesses, it is suggested that the components of the structure and its connection be revised with the purpose of more effectively performance. Prospect for further research in this direction is analysis of the systems of management of different types of university autonomy with a view to an efficient management, through the development and implementation of adequate managerial influences in different directions and according to types of autonomies. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №12-2018
Duma L. V.
Modeling the Sectoral Structural Changes in the Region’s Economy (p. 126 - 136)
The methodical approaches to estimation of influence of factors on the structural changes in economy of region are formed. The influence of internal and external indicators-factors on the structural dynamics of economy of regions of Ukraine is estimated. The degree of correlation between the selected indicators-factors and the resulting indicator of economic development of regions is determined. Using the methods of correlation-regression analysis, a multifactorial model of change of the gross regional product (GRP) under the influence of internal and external factors of economic development is built. The model of polynomial regression of influence of the change of structure of employment by kinds of economic activity in terms of regions of Ukraine as to GRP is built. The system approach to the estimation of structural-dynamic transformations in the regional economic system on the basis of calculations of efficiency of the structural adjustment is suggested. The model of estimation of quality of the structure of economy on the basis of proportionality coefficient is built. Proposals on directions of changes in the economic structure and on methods of influence to overcome the structural instability in the region’s economy are presented. Article is written in Ukrainian
Chenusha O. S.
Diagnosing the Impact of Staff Competence on the Economic Security of Oil Refining Enterprises (p. 137 - 142)
The article is aimed at improving the fundamentals of diagnosis and determining the impact of staff competence on the economic security of oil refining enterprises under the influence of macro-environment conditions. The basic principles of the theory of competences in view of the possibility of application of competence approach to ensure the economic security of oil refineries are considered. The article identifies and substantiates the presence of dependence of the level of general competence of the resource and financial-economic groups of the determinants of economic security of Ukrainian oil refineries from the investments in staff of the economic departments of the researched enterprises. For this purpose, the econometric model with distributed lag has been developed and applied, the use of which allows to define the long-term multiplier effect of growth of the level of the indicator of total competence of the resource and financial-economic groups determinants of ensuring economic security and the effect of motivation to the development of staff competencies. Article is written in Ukrainian
Rayevnyeva O. V., Brovko O. I.
Modeling the Number of Employed after Graduating from Higher Education Institutions (p. 143 - 149)
The article presents the main aspects of modeling the number of employed after graduating from higher education institutions, which would allow to develop managerial decisions to improve the quality of education, as well as to increase the number of young specialists in demand. The analysis of the number of higher education institutions and the dynamics of changes in the number of employed graduates was carried out; structural changes in the market of educational services were determined. On the basis of the carried out analysis with the help of models of adaptive forecasting the prospective number of the employed graduates after finishing a higher education institution was determined on the basis of application of Statistica software package. Article is written in Ukrainian
Shpak N. G.
Determining the Competitiveness of Participants of the International Economic System in View of the Customs Factor (p. 149 - 155)
The article is aimed at identifying the reasons for changing the competitiveness of participants of the international economic system in view of the customs factor, as well as determining the equilibrium volumes of each participant’s product supply to the market. The research made use of the methods of mathematical modelling. As a result, the intervals of competitiveness of both domestic and foreign producers when selling products in the national market are defined. It is determined that when the self-cost of production of domestic producers increases so much that foreign producer becomes competitive in terms the national market, the volume of products in the national market decreases. However, this decline in output is not as drastic as it was when foreign producer had been forced out of the market, that is, the presence of foreign producer smooths the decline in output. It is noted, that at increase of the self-cost of production of domestic producer the latter becomes uncompetitive, and the national market deals only with the production of foreign producer. Scientific novelty – it is proved that one of the key factors that ensure competitive advantage of the produced products is the scale of production, which can be achieved by expanding the market and reducing the self-cost of production. Article is written in Ukrainian
Artyomova A. V., Prikhodko V. O.
Improving the Methodology of Assessing the Competitiveness of Enterprise by Means of the Procedure of Determining the Optimal Number of Assessment Factors, in View of the Necessary Order of their Integration (p. 156 - 161)
In modern conditions of the market economy there is a necessity in application of the most modern methods which would allow to achieve maximal efficiency in achievement of the greatest profit by enterprise. One of the elements of such a methodology is the assessment of competitiveness, directed towards identifying the factors contributing to the positive dynamics of the enterprise’s activity. The article is aimed at the theoretical substantiation of an integrated approach in assessing the competitiveness of enterprise and developing recommendations for its improvement by performing such functions as the selection of necessary factors, in view of the necessary order of their integration. In calculating the competitiveness indicator with use of the «polygon of enterprise competitiveness» there is a problem of accuracy of the obtained indicator. Researches on calculations of competitiveness of enterprise under different order of use and quantity of the chosen factors have been made, and the result has shown various totals. To solve this problem, a procedure is proposed to determine the optimal number of assessment factors, taking account of the necessary order of their integration. The main purpose of applying the assessment of factor is to determine the relationship of the order, established between factors as to the importance level. On this basis the place (or rating) of each factor from the given aggregate, subjected to assessment, is determined. Article is written in Russian
Kovpak E. О., Tumanova Y. H.
Calculating the Credit Limit for Individual Borrower on the Basis of Logit-Model (p. 162 - 169)
The research is aimed at developing an algorithm for valuation by credit institution of the credit limit for a natural person-borrower, with regard to his socio-demographic characteristics, using the logistic regression tools. The improvement of the procedure for valuation of the solvency of an individual borrower is to integrate an empirical approach to the definition of solvency (based on the ratio of official income and expenditure of an individual) with the economic and mathematical methods, allowing to consider the available retrospective data of the financial institution about borrowers and to identify statistically significant regularities. The key role in the algorithm of estimation of credit limit is occupied by development of the logit-model for classification of borrowers for classes of «reliable» and «unreliable», the classification force of which will be to a large extent determinative as to the predictive quality of defining the amount of the credit limit. The publication presents an example of application of the logit-model for credit scoring, including quantitative and qualitative variables, with the help of which the socio-demographic characteristics of borrowers are described. The procedure of using the proposed algorithm is illustrated on the basis of such logit-model. Article is written in Ukrainian
Obolentseva L. V.
The Simulation Model of Management of Competitiveness of the Industrial Complexes of Regions (on the Example of Slobozhanshchina) (p. 169 - 176)
In the publication, the author builds an economic-mathematical simulation model of management of competitiveness of industrial complexes of regions. Comparison of two reliable regression models of Slobozhanshchina has showed that, with consideration of the balance indicators, all variables provide a commensurate positive contribution to the resulting indicator; otherwise, only capital investments have a positive effect on the final result, and the innovation activity of industrial enterprises and financial results before taxation can be considered extremely unsatisfactory. The functional relationship between the volume of sold products, goods and services and the financial results before taxation is clarified. It is concluded that the more is the functional dependence between the volume of realized industrial products and the financial results before taxation, the better are the results of economic activity of the regional industrial complex. Therefore, when building a strategy of management of competitiveness of the industrial complex of region, one should consider these levers of influence. Article is written in Ukrainian
Yagi Mahmud
The Methodical Approach to Assessing the Economic Security of Ukraine (p. 176 - 181)
The aim of the article is to improve the diagnostic instrumentarium for assessing the economic security of the country. One of the biggest problems of economic security in Ukraine is the presence of regional developmental imbalances, therefore, it is proposed to assess the level of economic security of the country by calculating the integral indicator, which should be understood as a generalizing macroeconomic indicator that comprehensively characterizes the current status of national economy security in a regional context. The assessment of the level of the country’s economic security is proposed to be carried out with a hierarchically constructed system of indicators, which includes integral, complex and partial indicators. Diagnostic instrumentarium for assessing the economic security of the country implies the use of correlation and taxonomic analyses, as well as the scaling method, which allows determining the level and disproportions of regional development and can serve as a basis for developing a strategy to ensure the economic security of the country together with its regions. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №1-2019
Shchelkunova L. I., Yemets M. S.
The Fractal Analysis of the Dynamics of International Arrivals in Tourism (p. 178 - 183)
The article sets the task of determining the global and local fractal characteristics of the time series characterizing the development of international tourism, in order to identify the peculiarities of the dynamics of their evolution, properties of self-similarity, trend-tolerance, presence of «memory effect». As a result of research the properties of trends of international arrivals in the world, Europe and the Middle East are identified. It was also possible to identify the cyclicity of these processes and define the length of the cycle for the European region and for the world as a whole. In addition, a high dependence of tourism development on the geopolitical situation in the Middle East region is determined. Article is written in Russian
Pyvavar I. V.
Improving the Methodology of Estimation and Analysis of the Level of Economic Security of Enterprise (p. 184 - 191)
The research is concerned with finding ways to improve the methodical approach to estimation of economic security of enterprises on the basis of a set of analytical methods and models that allow improving the performance of system of enterprise management, defining the directions of stabilization of economic security of enterprise, reducing risks of the threat of occurrence of financial crisis at the enterprise and ensuring its proper economic viability. The proposed approach consists of four steps that complement each other and provide a comprehensive estimation of the level of security of enterprise, determination of the class of enterprises in terms of economic security, as well as estimation of the level of financial security by assessing the likelihood of enterprise’s bankruptcy. The approach was implemented on a sample of twenty enterprises of the oil and gas industry complex of Ukraine, which allowed to identify enterprises with low level of security and to predict the likelihood of bankruptcy for their typical representative. The results of the assessment for the enterprises in the focus group showed a predominantly low level of economic security, which is primarily due to the unstable political situation and a low level of development of the industry branch. Article is written in Ukrainian
Us Y. V., Yaremko A. D.
The Theoretical and Methodical Bases of Estimation of the Labor Component of Anti-Crisis Potential of Enterprise (p. 192 - 198)
The basic methodical approaches to estimation of labor potential are researched. It is determined that, to estimate the labor potential, the method of the point assessment of components, the method of cluster analysis, the method of indices, as well as the integral method are used. The basic methodical approaches of estimation of labor potential, which should include the cost, comparative and effective approaches, are allocated. It is substantiated that the labor resources form the basis and define the labor component of the anti-crisis potential, which is one of the main levers to increase the performance. The model of definition of an integral indicator of the level of labor component of anti-crisis potential is developed. The labor component of the anti-crisis potential of enterprise is analyzed. The integral indicator of the impact of the labor component on the anti-crisis potential of enterprise is calculated, which in general form is a quantitative expression of the enterprise’s capability of the necessary labor resources, their rational use, and its obtained values - are criteria for evaluating the impact of the labor component on the anti-crisis potential of enterprises. It is determined that, in order to increase the anti-crisis potential of enterprise, it is possible to increase the use of financial, labor and production resources with purpose to adapt to market conditions, which are determined by the instability of external and internal environment of functioning. Article is written in Ukrainian
Savchenko M. V., Shkurenko O. V.
The Integral Approach to Evaluation of Economic Security of the Export-Oriented Socio-Economic Systems (p. 199 - 207)
The article is aimed at researching the theoretical, methodical and practical aspects of analysis and evaluation of economic security of socio-economic systems, development of an integral approach to evaluation and determination on its basis of the level of economic security of the export-oriented enterprise. The research determined that ensuring the efficient functioning of a socio-economic system requires the development of a methodical approach to evaluate the level of its economic security. Methodical approaches to evaluation of economic security of socio-economic system with definition of advantages and disadvantages are analyzed. The analysis of the existing methods helped to make own conclusions and to identify shortcomings of usage of different methods of economic security evaluation. The analysis of the existing methodological approaches to evaluation of economic security of socio-economic system resulted in conclusions about the need to develop an integral approach. The article substantiates the stages of evaluation of economic security of socio-economic system. On the basis of the proposed approach the economic security of the export-oriented enterprise is evaluated. Prospects for further research in this direction are substantiation of evaluation of the loss of economic security on the part of socio-economic system, and at the conceptual level there is a need in updating of some concepts and their logical practical use. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №2-2019
Hlotov Y. O., Shulga N. V., Popova O. M.
Building a Model of Long-Term Forecasting of the Natural Gas Production in Ukraine for Managerial Decision-Making (p. 133 - 139)
The article analyzes the dynamics of the natural gas production in Ukraine for 2009–2018, carries out a fractal analysis of the time series of the natural gas production indicators. The mathematical model of the natural gas production in Ukraine is developed taking into view the temporarily occupied territories of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, Sevastopol and parts of the territories in Donetsk and Luhansk regions (with introduction of the correction coefficient). The long-term forecast of the natural gas production for 2019–2027 is accomplished using the Holt’s method – with the purpose of usage for managerial decision-making at all levels of power. The average absolute percentage error was 2,026%, which does not exceed 10%. This indicates a high accuracy of the forecast. The forecast of the natural gas production in Ukraine for 2019-2027, in the presence of the correction coefficient, is made without considering new investments and modern technologies. It is specified that in order to improve the natural gas production in Ukraine in 2019-2027, we need programs to support the development of the natural gas production at the State level; the State guarantees on projects, which envisage the introduction of new types of equipment and new low-waste, resource-saving technological processes used in the production of natural gas. Besides, it is necessary to create favorable investment climate that will attract funds of foreign investors from the world financial market for modernization of the natural gas industry in Ukraine. Article is written in Ukrainian
Klebanova T. S., Gvozdytskyi V. S., Rudachenko O. O.
Preventing the Financial Crises in the Corporate Systems Based on the Neuro-Fuzzy Models (p. 140 - 146)
The article researches the topical problem of the threat of formation of financial crises in the corporate systems based on the neuro-fuzzy models which allow to timely predict a threat of bankruptcy and to warn it. It is noted that more than 50% of Ukraine’s GDP is produced by corporate enterprises, and, besides, there is a clear tendency of the corporations’ takeover of small and micro business entities. The given circumstance proves necessity of strengthening of attention to problems of bankruptcy regarding corporate enterprises as the defining link of the national economic infrastructure. Every year the aggravation of financial crises at corporate enterprises becomes more and more publicized, which requires immediate solution of this problem. Article is written in Ukrainian
Porohnya V. M., Ivanov R. V.
The Scenario Modeling of Households’ Activities in the Overall Economic Structure of the State (p. 146 - 153)
The main aim of the publication is researching the activities of household sector in the overall economic structure of the State using the modern economic-mathematical methods and models of macroeconomic processes. The research showed that households’ expenditures have a significant impact on the aggregate output of products (AOP), especially for industries where their share is the largest. The results of a scenario modelling of the dependency of the AOP on households with regard to industries, using the cross-industry balance model, suggest that the proposed methodology can be used to plan and forecast economic growth in terms of development of scenarios of their impact on the overall economic result. It is determined that the main factor of adaptation of households in conditions of economic instability is small-sized entrepreneurship as a source of formation of incomes in the form of profit and mixed income. Ensuring this process is meant to increase the level of human capital by increasing consumer spending in the spheres of education and health. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №3-2019
Oliinyk A. Р., Krykhivskyi M. V., Krykhivska N. О.
Modelling the Interrelationship of Strategic Sustainability of Partner Entities (p. 122 - 128)
The article is aimed at an economic-mathematical substantiation of the interrelationship of strategic sustainability of partner entities in the system «production-education-science» and the level of their partnership potential. Various approaches of authors to the definition of «strategic sustainability of enterprise» and essence of its constituents are researched. The place and importance of the partnership strategy as a defining element of strategic sustainability of partners is displayed. The mathematical model is substantiated on the basis of system of differential equations for forecasting results of introduction of strategy of partnership relations which defines dependence of strategic sustainability of partner entities from the level of their partnership potential and confirms the expediency of forming strategic partnerships in the system of «production-education-science». Prospect for further research in this direction is development of practical bases of realization of strategy of partnership relations in the integrated system «production-education-science». Article is written in Ukrainian
Romanko O. P.
Causal-Сonsequential Links Between the Indicators of Innovation and Investment Activity of Region (p. 129 - 135)
The current world-wide development of regionalism focuses on the scientific argumentation of the choice of methods and instruments for efficient management of region. During the reform of the decentralization of power in Ukraine such studies are necessary for exploration of practical application by regional authorities. The author used the the Grainger’s test to explore the existence of causal-consequential links between two groups of indicators of regional activity, both innovation and investment. According to the results of the test the division of regional indicators of these groups as to presence of a link: its direction (one-sided, inverse) and strength (strong, weak) is made. The Grainger’s test provides an opportunity to predict the interrelationship and interconnection for a period of up to three years, which can assist in shaping the region’s measures of impact on innovation and investment and managing the economy of region as a whole. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №4-2019
Voronin A. V., Gunko O. V., Аfanasieva L. M.
The Volatility of Price Movements When Changing the Export-Import Balance (p. 205 - 211)
The present publication is concerned with the problem of analyzing the pricing mechanism when carrying out export-import operations. As a basic model is suggested the dynamic version of the traditional monetarist balance by I. Fischer – the main correlation of quantitative theory of money. The dynamic formalization of the model has a representation in both discrete and continuous temporal forms. The peculiarity of the investigated model is the linear nature of dependence of functions of volumes of exports and imports from the internal price on commodity production. This hypothesis generates the structure of the discrete dynamic model in the form of quadratic (logistic) display. A substantive analysis of the stability of equilibrium positions is done with indication of all possible types of dynamic behavior, e.g. limit cycles and chaotic modes. The substantial economic interpretation of the main bifurcation parameter is provided. For a continuous version of the model, explicit expressions to change the price in the temporary area are obtained and the fact of the presence of a catastrophic «crease» type is determined. For the analysis of behavioral properties of the researched model, the methodology of description of self-organizing economic systems with consideration of the corresponding synergistic effect is used. Article is written in Russian
Fadeyeva I. H., Gryniuk O. I.
Fuzzy logic as a Risk-Controlling Instrument in the Context of the Proactive Management of the Oil and Gas Producing Enterprises (p. 212 - 220)
The article is aimed at finding ways to increase the efficiency of the oil and gas production enterprises (OGPE) in conditions of uncertainty of business environment. The actuality of application of fuzzy logic methods as an instrument of risk controlling within the terms of ensuring the proactive management of the oil and gas producing enterprises is substantiated. The model of the risk-controlling system of the OGPE is improved, which, unlike the existing ones, is supplemented by a cascade fuzzy model of Mamdani type – estimation and prediction of probability of risk occurrence that creates preconditions for the proactive management of enterprise. The model of implementation of risk-controlling system in the system of the proactive management of the ORPE is formed, which is based on the integration of risk-management and risk-controlling systems. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №5-2019
Lyubchyk L. M., Grinberg G. L., Voronin A. V.
Crisis Models of Economic Dynamics (p. 92 - 97)
The main aim of the study is to analyze the procedure for constructing differential equations used to model macroeconomic processes. The correctness of the model of economic growth in differential form is investigated. The inadequacy of the exponential growth of the economy is established. An alternative result is obtained in the form of a hyperbolic growth of significant economic indicators. A discrepancy between the proportional growth of capital and income is revealed. Considerations are put forward to identify the moment of occurrence of crisis phenomena. Corresponding adjustments to economic growth models are made. An approach to the use of balance equations for modeling economic dynamics for the purpose of obtaining prediction estimates is generalized. Article is written in Ukrainian
Kovalova K. O., Misiura I. Y.
Modeling and Forecasting Ukraine’s Population by Time Series Using the Matlab Econometrics Toolbox (p. 98 - 105)
The article deals with modeling and forecasting the population of Ukraine by time series. It is shown that time series analysis is a complex, multicomponent econometric task which does not have a universal approach to its solution. This is due both to the diversity of methods of and approaches to time series analysis which were developed over time and to the specifics of time series data. For example, the authors of the article worked with a univariate nonstationary time series, therefore, the approaches and methods presented in the article are not recommended for time series with different properties. The article has an enormous practical value, since it discusses in detail issues of computer modeling of tasks of the kind. The carried out analysis of the literature has shown the relevance of the problems considered, among which particular attention should be paid to the choice of the ARIMA model, data visualization, and forecast accuracy. Article is written in English
Dmytrenko O. V., Ivashchenko P. A.
Simulating and Forecasting Periodic Behavior of a Discrete Time Series Using the Moving Average Method (p. 106 - 110)
A new method for simulating and forecasting a discrete time series using the moving average method is proposed and substantiated. The idea of the method is to use the latus rectum as a quantitative estimator of the shape of a parabolic segment of a time series trend. Since the actual number of values of this indicator in terms of nature of its periodicity resembles an array of innovative buckets, there arose an idea of using the foci of parabolic segments which approximate these buckets. To build the forecasts, the simplest method of double moving averages of the third order was chosen. Using the moving average method, it is possible to obtain not only forecasts of points or intervals but also more complex ones, e.g., those of parabolic segments. The method of forecasting with the help of moving averages has provided an opportunity to give a generalizing picture of the changes in the process being studied, as demonstrated by the example of the indicator “Innovative Activity of Ukrainian Enterprises”. It has made it possible to predict the intensification of innovation in Ukraine for the period up to 2024. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №6-2019
Sherstennikov Y. V.
Modeling Optimization of an Enterprise’s Production Capacity and Retail Sales (p. 135 - 139)
The publication is concerned to development of one of the methods of simulation of the logistic system (LS) of enterprise. The article is aimed at developing, with use of the approach by J. Forrester, a simulation model on the basis of which one can perform a joint model optimization of production capacity and operation of a retail network. The article formulates a system of equations that describe a LS of an enterprise. Calculations of the time dynamics for all rates of logistic system (production rate, transport rates), as well as the dynamics of the levels of goods in the wholesale warehouse and in the retail chain are accomplished. The optimization task of defining the maximum economic efficiency is formulated and solved. At this, the production capacity and capacity of the retail chain were considered as variations of the set optimization task. The numerical calculations have proved that with optimal variation parameters, significant economic results of the enterprise’s performance are achieved. Article is written in English
BUSINESS INFORM №7-2019
Tokarchuk V. V., Nasachenko M. Y.
The Scenario Analysis of the Impact of Destabilizing Factors on Monetary Policy (p. 138 - 143)
The article is aimed at substantiating and quantifying the impact of destabilizing factors on achieving the monetary policy goals by applying economic-mathematical modeling, namely, the method of system dynamics. This approach to modeling allows taking into account complex and multiple relationships in an economic system, as well as reproducing the real historical tendencies. On the basis of the developed model, various scenarios of the impact of risks on the price stability, in particular growth of the share of shadow economy, changes in energy prices, imbalance of international trade, are researched. The scenario analysis exemplified that the threats caused by macroeconomic instability have a significant impact on the efficient implementation of monetary policy. Prospects for further research in this direction is the expansion of the macro model by adding the financial, the fiscal and other sectors to best reproduce the functioning of the country’s economy. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №8-2019
Lukianenko I. G., Nasachenko M. Y.
The Methodological Bases for Developing Ukraine’s Aggregated Macro-Economic Model Based on a System of Simultative Equations (p. 98 - 105)
The objectives of the article are the following: building and evaluating with use of a system of simultative equations of an aggregated macro-economic model of Ukraine’s economy, taking into account the level of shadowing; carrying out a scenario analysis based on the model to define the key instruments of the State-based regulation aimed at reducing the shadow sector and achieving macro-economic stability, taking into consideration possible external and internal destabilizing factors and risks. This approach to modeling allows quantifying the interaction of key macro-economic indicators of the Ukrainian economy, but also applying a wide range of scenario analysis to define efficient instruments of the State-based socio-economic regulation both in the short and long perspectives. In order to demonstrate the practical possibilities of the built macro-model, a forecast of the main macro-economic indicators is calculated under the terms of a baseline scenario and several possible scenarios for further economic development are analyzed (in particular, in the assumption as to further growth in average wages and volumes of cash outside banks), as well as an assessment of the impact of such a change on the level of economic shadowing and employment is carried out, indicating invariance of the tendencies of other macro-economic indicators of the model. Scenario analysis and quantification of the relationships between the model’s variables indicate the sensitivity of employment, level of shadow economy, inflation, exchange rate, interest rate and GDP to changes in the macro-economic environment. Prospect for further research is to expand the developed aggregated macro-model of simultative equations by adding other sectors, in particular fiscal, tax, etc., to more accurately reproduce the functioning of the country’s economy as a whole. Article is written in Ukrainian
Sherstennikov Y. V., Kozhemjaka M. A.
Optimizing the Raw Materials Purchases and Advertising Campaign of Enterprise (p. 105 - 110)
The publication is concerned with elaboration of a method for simulation of the logistics system (LS) of enterprise. The article is aimed at development, using the approach by J. Forrester, of an economic-mathematical model of the enterprise’s production activities taking into account all the main links of its LS, starting with the composition of raw materials; application of the developed model to simultaneously optimize the purchase of raw materials and the duration of an advertising campaign. The publication formulates a system of equations that describe the enterprise’s LS. Simulation modeling is implemented using a system of mathematical equations, which constitute the basis of computer programs, allowing to model the work of LS in the mode of «simulation» of the structure, taking into account the parameters of the LS. The optimization task of defining the maximum economic efficiency as a function of parameters that determine the purchase of raw materials and the timing of an advertising campaign is formulated. Calculations of the time dynamics of all the pace of the logistics system (production, transportation), as well as the dynamics of the levels of goods in the wholesale and in retail chains, are accomplished. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №9-2019
Dmytrenko O. V., Ivashchenko P. A.
Substantiation for Using the Moving Focus Method to Simulate and Predict the Time Series Form (p. 123 - 129)
The predicting of economic factor using the moving focus method is substantiated. The method is based on the use of the focal parameter as a quantitative valuer of the form of parabolic segment of trend and is illustrated by the example of the factor of «Innovation Activities of Enterprises of Ukraine». The actual set of values of this indicator by the nature of cyclicity resembles the sequence of «innovative» buckets (jezves). The method uses the focuses of the parabolas’ segments that approximate these buckets. The simplest method of moving averages is used. The substantiation required the introduction and use of a new concept - «temporary series skeleton», which is a complex of pairs of the empiriametric models of the adjacent branches of trends of jezves. The application of the moving focus method allows to draw the following conclusion: if for the years of 2018 and 2019 the factor of «Share of Ukrainian Enterprises that Were Innovative» gains values of 18,40% and 25,50%, then, starting in 2020, the values of the factor are predicted to fall to 18,35% and 16,09% in 2021 and 2022, accordingly. Thus, at the interval of 2019-2022, the form of the growing trend (at a rate of 4,90x - 9868,78) is predicted to change downward (at a rate of 4,56x - 9214,28). Article is written in Ukrainian
Pilko A. D., Vatseba M. R.
The Models of Analysis of Regional Potato Market (p. 130 - 135)
The publication presents the results of a research on the existing practice of analyzing the regional potato market in terms of production and consumer potentials. By examining existing approaches to the analysis of the regional potato market, as well as the use of economic analysis techniques together with an applied econometric instrumentarium, it has become possible to offer the authors’ own approach to the solution of the task of analysis of both the production and the consumer potentials of the regional potato market on the example of the regions of Western Ukraine. Building-up and econometric analyzing of the models of dependence of potato production and consumption on key factors in each of the regions of Western Ukraine allowed to track the cause-and-effect relationships between the main parameters of the researched food market in the context of ensuring the region’s food security. The calculated projections of the use of the resource capabilities of the regional potato market and the consumption of this type of food give every reason to conclude about the expected slight increase in use of the production potential against the backdrop of declining use of the consumer potential. This is explained due to a decline in real consumer capacity against the background of the growth of the production self-cost of potatoes in all categories of farms. Practical use of the developed approach in the process of analyzing and calculating projected efficiency values for the use of the production and the consumer potentials of the regional potato market (with appropriate model calculations and taking into account the possible lag effects because of changing economic conditions) will potentially allow a qualitatively new approach to the formation of mechanisms for ensuring, analyzing and monitoring the food security of Ukraine’s regions. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №10-2019
Savchenko M. V., Shkurenko O. V.
Financial Resilience as a Background of the International Business Development (p. 96 - 104)
The article is aimed at developing the theoretic-methodological provisions for the management of financial resilience and solvency of international business entities. As result of the research it is found that the success of functioning and development of international business entities depends on financial stability and solvency. The main features of the financial resilience of enterprise are systematized, which allows defining financial stability as the ability of enterprise to develop steadily in the conditions of risky internal and external environment in order to maximize financial results and extended reproduction. The relationship between the financial resilience of international business entities and such categories as financial security, flexibility, stability, balance and solvency is determined. It is emphasized that in defining the system of financial stability goals and in management of solvency, it is necessary to use a comprehensive approach, which is to show the economic opportunities of enterprise according to the changes in the competitive environment. Also certain features of management of financial resilience and solvency of international business entities are allocated. A comprehensive assessment of financial resilience for PrJSC «ArtWinery» for the period of 2008-2018 is carried out on the basis of use of taxonomic indicator. The forecast values of the financial resilience of the international business entity, as well as the upper and lower limits of confidence intervals for 2019-2020, are calculated, which will allow elaborating the strategic directions of its development. Prospects for further research in this direction are substantiation for the development of a mechanism to manage the financial resilience and solvency of international business entities, and, at the conceptual level, refinement of some concepts and their logical use in practical activities. Article is written in Ukrainian
Bril M. S., Pyvavar I. V.
A Methodology for Macro-Economic Research on Social Tension: Analysis, Evaluation, Diagnostics (p. 105 - 114)
The publication is aimed at researching social tensions in the European Union on the basis of the application of economic-mathematical modeling at the macro-economic level. The publication discloses theoretical approaches to such phenomenon as social tension at the macro-level, forms an indicative space, analyzes the influence factors, the mechanism of formation, and stages of development. The current macro-economic status of social tensions in the EU countries is researched. A comprehensive scheme for evaluation and analysis of social tensions in the EU countries is developed, containing implementation of the four main stages according to the selected factors-indices. A social tension index for the EU countries is formed, the extent of the influence of factors on the social tension index based on methods of correlation and regression analysis is identified. A model of evaluation of the level of social tension has been built to identify regularities of development over a certain period of development. In order to identify groups of countries with similar factors of social tension and to detail the resulting integrated scale, a model has been developed to classify countries, applying the Ward’s method, by the level of social tension using Gap-statistics and k-averages. Based on the use of the neural network learning algorithm, a group of countries in which also belongs Ukraine has been found, showing relation to the factors of social tension formation. The function of forecast provisioned by the functional of neural network is used, according to which Ukraine falls into a cluster with a high level of social tension, that is, has a similar background for functioning of the mechanism of social tension with such countries like Bulgaria, Romania, Macedonia, Serbia, Turkey and Montenegro. Thus, the proposed methodology for macro-economic research on the level of social tension is an effective tool for integrated diagnostics, which will allow to focus on the development of adequate and effective strategies for prevention of increase in social tensions and to minimize the threats associated with it in a timely manner. Article is written in Ukrainian
Pilko A. D., Kramar V. R.
Model of Monetary Policy Parameters Formation (p. 115 - 121)
The publication presents results of the carried out analysis of existing Western and domestic macro-economic models, which form the basis for determining the key parameters of monetary policy of the central banks in the respective countries. A study on the existing approaches to the formation of monetary rules of central banks in both advanced market economies and countries with emerging markets shows limited possibilities of efficient use of the classic J. Taylor rule and its modifications to form the Monetary Policy of the NBU. The carried out analysis of macro-economic indicators, as well as the use of the econometric analyzing methods, allowed to propose a possible approach to the problem of forming a monetary rule and developing a model of behavior of the NBU regulation of the basic macro-economic indicators together with setting the interest rate. A simultative model built on the basis of quarterly information for 15 reporting periods, displaying the main relationships between endogenous and exogenous variables, which determine the rule of monetary policy of the NBU, allowed to track the direction and nature of the causal relationships between the basic macro-economic parameters in the context of setting the interest rate by the NBU. The calculated forecast values of endogenous variables of the developed model, namely: consolidated balance, exchange rate, real GDP, real wages, interest rate of the NBU, consumer credit volumes, and consumer price index allowed to identify manageable tendencies in changing the values of these indicators and to conduct an analysis of possible scenarios of a macro-economic situation evolving. Practical use of the proposed approach (in the process of analyzing possible scenarios for the evolvement of key parameters of monetary policy and calculations of the forecast values of interest rate, consumer price index and other interconnected macro-indicators with carrying out the appropriate model calculations, the development of a structured multi-sectoral model, as well as taking into account the possible lag effects of changing economic conditions and the impact of qualitative factors on macro-indicators) potentially will allow a qualitatively new approach to the formation of mechanisms for analyzing and forecasting the monetary policy of Ukraine. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №11-2019
Serhiienko O. A., Shapran O. Y., Sosnov I. I.
Methods and Models for Analyzing the Efficiency of E-commerce Systems (p. 140 - 149)
The publication explores methods of analyzing the efficiency of the e-commerce system; with consideration of the technology of organizing commercial activities in the current environment and the main instruments of e-commerce. The analysis and comparison of traditional and electronic marketing is carried out. The stages of e-marketing planning are provided. A conceptual scheme of modeling business processes in e-commerce with the help of UML Use Case Diagram Example is presented. An analysis of effectiveness of the on-line store “Lu bоutіquе” is carried out with the help of the Gооglе Аnаlytісs system, allowing to define the directions of improvement and optimization of the website, the main sources of customer engagement, the average check, conversion indicator and efficiency of an advertising campaign. An analysis of business processes in e-commerce is accomplished and proposals to improve their management are elaborated based on demand for products, using methods of modeling and information technology. Exponential smoothing models (Brown, Holt) and multi-factor models of loss formation are built, allowing to predict performance of the store and then make appropriate managerial decisions. It is defined that for the researched on-line store “Lu bоutіquе” first of all, the level of losses particularly is affected by: consumption of raw materials (tissue) per kg of clothing, percentage of clothing sales, and the cost of purchasing 1 kg of clothing. Based on the carried out simulation and analysis of the web resource’s performance along with the website’s traffic indicators, ways to improve the efficiency of management of the on-line store are defined. The results can be applied to the e-commerce systems at micro-economic level. Article is written in Ukrainian
Kotsyuba O. S.
Development of Risk Measurement Instrumentarium in Modeling of Uncertainty Using the Fuzzy Set Approach (p. 149 - 156)
The article is aimed at developing a methodical apparatus for risk measurement using the fuzzy set theory in order to formalize uncertainty. The problem field of research is limited to a situation where an economic indicator that serves as a decision-making criterion is described by a fuzzy number, understanding the latter as a fuzzy value with normal and convex membership function. Based on the interval (by the levels of membership) method of presenting a fuzzy assessment of the criterion indicator, the publication considers such indicators of the risk degree as average absolute deviation, average range of variation, half-deviation (average absolute half-deviation), the average one-sided variation. The versions of the last two indicators, formulated in the study in terms of the fuzzy-set methodology, are the result of the refinement of their prototypes proposed in previous publications of the author. As evidence of the logical correctness of the revised versions of the half-deviation and the average one-sided variation are the corresponding equalities, which reflect the relationship of these indicators with the indicators of the average absolute deviation and average range variation, respectively. In general, the results of the proposed study should be regarded as separate components of a single system of instrumental means for quantifying the risk degree in a fuzzy data situation, the formation of which has not yet been completed and suggests further development. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №12-2019
Yarmolenko V. О., Burennikova N. V.
Measuring the Efficiency of the Processes of Functioning of a Component System Based on the Models of the Efficiency Constituents: The Energy Aspect (p. 102 - 110)
The article is aimed at improving the development and disclosure of the methodology for measuring the efficiency of the processes of functioning of a component system based on the models of the efficiency constituents and the use of advantages and costs of processes in their aggregate products in terms of energy approach. Three types of performance indicators of a component system, proposed in previously published works by the authors, were analyzed as follows: the ratio of the processes’ aggregate product indicators to the cost indicators; the ratio of the processes’ net product indicators to the aggregate product indicators; average geometric values of these two types of indicators. New approaches have been proposed to the method of measuring newly formed authors’ own performance indicators of a component system in terms of the use of advantages and costs of processes in their aggregate products. Novation in this sense is that the approaches we have proposed address the problem of simultaneously measuring the efficiency of the processes of functioning of a component system (using the performance indicators of the specified three types) irrespective of the units of measurement of their aggregate, net products and costs, as it all comes down to a disproportionate unit of measurement in the form of advantages and costs of processes in their aggregate products, and the average performance indicators of the processes of functioning of a component system (arithmetic and geometric) to some extent can be considered characteristics of the relevant indicators of the efficiency of the process of functioning and the system itself. Underlined is the following: since the value of the authors’ own indicators of aggregate products, products as costs and net products of the subprocesses within the process of functioning of system are equal to the values of the energy indicators of these products, research of certain processes (including the processes of functioning of a component system) based on the indicators for these products means that they are scientifically considered in the energy aspect. Examples show the practical implementation of this methodology. It is noted that the obtained results can be used to make certain managerial decisions regarding both the system components and the system (its status, structure, behavior, etc.) as a whole. Further research is planned to be linked to the identification of the role played by measurements of the newly formed indicators of the processes of functioning of a component system and the suggested methodology in the SEE analysis and SEE management, carried out by the authors. Article is written in Ukrainian
Arefieva O. V., Poberezhna Z. M.
Intensification of Management of Economic Behavior of Enterprise in Competitive Markets (p. 110 - 118)
The article considers the intensification of the process of management of the economic behavior of enterprise in competitive markets. The system of management of the economic behavior of enterprise should be guided by the pace of development of scientific-technological progress, be necessarily related to the mechanism of the enterprise’s activities and is aimed at improving its activities and management methods. Applying the priority management practices for an enterprise should be based on the integrated use of a system of economic laws and managerial principles. Intensification of management of the economic behavior of enterprise in competitive markets is formed by means of certain instruments, methods and levers that interact with each other and constitute a holistic formation, produce an economic effect. Methods of measuring the intensification of management system of the enterprise’s economic behavior are proposed to be applied as most socio-economic indicators, formed under the influence of many factors rather than one. A model of correlation-regression analysis has been proposed, based on a group of factor indicators, namely: production costs; volume of products produced; value added by production costs; capital investment in the enterprise; number of enterprises in the industry. The findings of the research are that the greatest impact is the value-added indicator related to production costs. Measures to intensification of enterprise in competitive markets have been proposed. The main conditions for the successful implementation of the intensification of enterprise management in competitive markets have been defined through: improving the use of all types of resources and predicting the possibilities for their replacement with better ones; intensification of the introduction of innovative models for the formation of organizational behavior of enterprise in competitive markets; improving organization of production to identify bottlenecks and identify reserves; introduction of a system of measures to improve managerial decision-making based on the introduction of information technologies inherent in the digital economy. Article is written in Ukrainian
Protsenko A. V.
The Sustainable Level of Innovation Potential as a Strategic Priority Task for Operation of Industrial Energy Producers (p. 118 - 125)
The article defines that every industrial energy enterprise in the structure of the production industry should develop an effective strategic plan for its innovative development, directed towards achieving a balance between its own solvent demand, existing supply volumes from scientific organizations and the investment opportunities. Taking account of the forecast of such kind, enterprises must define which production technologies should be developed and which should be abandoned. The increase of innovation potential should be preceded by projections of investment volumes and aggregate financing for the development of science and technology. It is concluded that the achievement of strategically innovative goals depends directly on the clear coordination of interaction between the various functional structures of industrial energy enterprises, rapid response to legal novations and the current internal situation. At the same time, an equally important forecast is both the external, aimed at verifying the compliance of economic results of industrial enterprises and a certain level of innovation potential with existing adaptive norms, and the internal, purpose of which is to ensure the implementation of innovative decisions, as well as to prevent undesirable consequences when changing the innovation-investment norms. Solving the related problems and shortcomings of the strategic system will help stimulate entrepreneurial production activity, increase business and investment innovation activity of industrial energy enterprises, as well as stimulating scientific-technological progress, technological renewal of production and, as result, the entry of national industrial enterprises into the global market of high-tech products. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №1-2020
Chernova N. L., Guryanova L. S.
Analyzing the Space-Time Structure of the Futures Section of the Metals Market (p. 108 - 115)
Due to the global trend of growth of fixed-term markets, derivatives are increasingly being used not only for risk insurance, but also in arbitration strategies of trade. The specificity of these types of strategies is that they are market-neutral, their result does not depend on the overall direction of market movement. The research is aimed at developing a complex of models for evaluating and analyzing the space-time structure of the market for metals futures, the application of which allows to obtain a quantitative substantiation for the formation of the sets of financial instruments most appropriate in terms of implementing the arbitration trading strategies. This complex includes four basic models: formation of an information base of research, classification of assets into homogeneous groups, formation of pairs of assets, evaluation of the stability of pairs of assets. The initial basis of the research are statistics reflecting the dynamics of prices for futures contracts traded at the New York Stock Exchange and the London Metal Exchange. The initial dataset contains monthly information on the prices of contracts for the following metals: aluminium, copper, nickel, zinc, lead, stanum, gold, silver, platinum, and palladium. Article is written in Ukrainian
Kaneva T. V.
Priorities to Improve the Costs Efficiency of Budgetary Institutions (p. 115 - 121)
The role and place of costs policy in the modern system of financial regulation of budgetary institutions is defined. The priorities facing the national system of budgetary institutions are identified, taking into account the need to strengthen its effectiveness and efficiency, including in the part: creating conditions for increasing the economic independence of budgetary institutions based on the replacement of estimated funding for end-to-end budgeting; updating the institutional mechanisms for financing and co-financing of socially important services; increased transparency and publicity of activities; introducing a system for evaluating the quality of services provided; introduction of an institution of effective public financial control at all stages of the management cycle, starting with planning. A methodology for evaluating the socio-economic costs efficiency of budgetary institutions is proposed, including the definitions of relative fiscal autonomy and of the decentralization level of the system of financing for the network of budgetary institutions, which can be used to characterize the compositional structure of financial policy in the sphere of costs. The role of fiscal decentralization in financing the costs of social development is defined. The specifics of use of the program-targeted method in financing the activities of budgetary institutions are characterized. Ways to improve the cost efficiency of budgetary institutions in the spheres of education and public health are suggested. Article is written in Ukrainian
Novik A. Y.
Designing a System Dynamics Model of Shadow Wage Formation in Ukraine (p. 122 - 128)
The formation of the shadow wage in Ukraine is a major problem and a threat to economic growth. According to different valuation methods, the shadow economy in Ukraine ranges from 35% to 54% of GDP, and the shadow wage is estimated at 18% of GDP. The general scheme for tax evasion by businesses is to informally pay cash to workers in “envelopes”, which results in a large amount of cash in the economy and, as a consequence, further opportunities for tax evasion. Despite the urgency of the current issue for Ukraine and a large number of works by Ukrainian and foreign scientists dedicated to finding positive and negative features of the existence of shadow wages, there is still a lack of research that determines the formation of shadow wages through the use of economic and mathematical tools. Based on that, a model of shadow wage formation using the system dynamics method was constructed, which takes into account such factors as the amount of cash in the economy and the size of the minimum wage. Based on the modeling results it was found that raising the minimum wage would reduce the share of the shadow component in GDP. Taking that into consideration, conclusions were drawn regarding the first objectives of government policy, which should aim at creating opportunities for economic growth and reducing the amount of cash in the economy in order to lower the size of the shadow sector in Ukrainian economy as a whole. Article is written in English
BUSINESS INFORM №2-2020
Kovalchuk V. A., Kovalchuk T. M.
The Economic-Mathematical Modeling of the Optimal Structure of Investment of a Mining and Dressing Enterprise (p. 108 - 114)
In accordance with the task of substantiating the economic-mathematical model and the method of optimizing the main directions of investment to maintain the raw-materials and technology base of a mining and dressing enterprise, their current status and problematic issues of production are analyzed. The main areas of investment activity are highlighted and their connection with the major resource and technological facilities of the enterprise’s production infrastructure is displayed. A stochastic factor analysis is carried out and the closeness of investment investments by the areas with the main economic indicators of the enterprise as a whole is determined. The most acceptable effective indicator for the working conditions of a particular enterprise is substantiated. Correlations between net profit and volumes of investment in technical rearmament, major repairs to machinery and equipment and capital construction are determined. The nature and degree of joint influence of directions of investments on net profit are analyzed. A criterion for evaluating the efficiency of investment use is proposed and an economic and mathematical model is developed. The method of optimizing the structure of directions, which is the method of dynamic programming, is substantiated. The model is adapted and implemented in the working conditions of a typical mining and dressing enterprise. The results of the efficiency of implementation of the optimal structure of investment directions are presented. For the working conditions of a particular mining and dressing enterprise, an optimal structure is determined that, in comparison with the actual, allowed to get a significant increase in net profit. The possibility of expanding the application area of economic-mathematical models together with the methods of optimization of this type to solve other production tasks has been indicated. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №3-2020
Shabelnyk T. V., Marena T. V., Shabelnyk M. M.
Modeling the Occurrence of Global Financial Crises in the System of Financial Security of Countries (p. 75 - 82)
The publication is aimed at developing and approbation of an economic-mathematical model for controlling the occurrence of global financial crises on the basis of the implementation of control points of the macro-economic indicators of financial crises. Based on a retrospective study of the history of global financial crises and an analysis of scientific sources, the main macro-economic indicators that can signal the development of financial crisis are allocated as follows: balance of payments; ratio of external debt to the country’s GDP; exchange rate volatility; ratio of the country’s international reserves to imports. An economic-mathematical model for controlling the occurrence of global financial crises by implementing the control points of macro-economic indicators of financial crises, which can become the basis of the formation of systems for early warning of global financial crises to ensure the financial security of countries, has been proposed. The model allows monitoring and calculation of the main assessment indicators, forming an information base for the development of managerial solutions to prevent the onset of financial crises or reduce negative consequences due to their early detection. The practical approbation of the proposed model was carried out on the example of developed countries and developing countries, which play a systematically important role in the world economy, as well as on the example of Ukraine. A matrix of compliance of the optimal values of the main macro-economic indicators of financial crises has been built and the most likely sources of a financial crisis have been identified. Article is written in Ukrainian
Chagovets L. O., Chahovets V. V., Didenko A. S.
The Data Mining Technology Applications for Modeling the Unevenness of Socio-Economic Development of Regions (p. 82 - 91)
The article is aimed at developing models for reduction of the information space for the assessment of the socio-economic development of Ukrainian regions (SER), as well as allocating the factor groups of indicators that are of particular importance for improving the efficiency of formation and decision-making in the elaboration of the development strategies of regions. The carried out monograph analysis, systemization and generalization of modern scientific developments of domestic and foreign scholars allowed to determine the existence of a number of approaches to the definition and evaluation of the uneven socio-economic development of regions and the absence of a single base of assessment indicators of the SER. As a result of the study, a model to reduce indicators for evaluating the uneven socio-economic development of Ukrainian regions by Data Mining methods is developed, in particular by the principal components method, which allows to significantly narrow the system of estimates. As a result of the carried out modeling, the degree of influence and load of uneven indicators in the context of individual factor groups of the SER indicators in accordance with their principal components is determined. Prospects for further research in this direction should be the development of models for the classification of the SER statuses and forecasting the level of unevenness of the SER on the basis of the proposed complex of models for assessing the asymmetry and unevenness of regional development; forming a system of directions and the most significant strategic levers of regional development. The obtained results will allow to scale models according to the data of the European Union countries, which will serve as a basis for improving models of equalization of the asymmetry of the macro-regions development. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №4-2020
Bril M. S.
Methodology for Forming a Balanced System of Regional Differentiation Indicators (p. 133 - 142)
A step-by-step model of forming a balanced factor system of regional differentiation indicators in terms of the canonical correlation system is proposed. The canonical correlation relationships are researched between groups of source variables for the regions of Ukraine for 2015–2019 using the Statistica PPP. The main purpose of the research is to implement the methodology of canonical correlations by identifying the object of research in two characteristic spaces; maximizing communication (spatial display of the object); reducing the amount of raw data (the possibility of eliminating irrelevant factors). The selection of the most informative variables by the characteristic of the close relationship between two sets of variables and the content of the researched processes in dynamics is made by analyzing the structure of canonical variables and the magnitude of canonical correlations. The build up dynamic models of canonical correlations for the formation of a balanced factor system of regional differentiation indicators allow a more precise and logical implementation of meaningful interpretation of the obtained results in comparison with other multidimensional methods. According to the results of the research on forming a balanced representative system of indicators, the following sets of factors have been formed: the set of the most significant factors, the set of significant factors, the set of essential factors, and the set of non-essential factors. The methodology of canonical correlations is applied, which extends the possibilities of formation and research of interconnections of different phenomena and processes in socio-economic systems of different level of hierarchy as a result of involvement in the process of analysis of systems of a large set of studied factor and resultant indicators in one set, providing a fundamental basis for forming a balanced factor system of indicators of regional development and differentiation, both in spatial and temporal, dynamic context, which will improve and upgrade implementation of development strategies and will reduce the regional unevenness. Article is written in Ukrainian
Kramchaninova M. D., Vakhlakova V. V., Panychok M. Y.
Using the Economic, Mathematical and Statistical methods in the Study of Mesoeconomic Dynamics (p. 143 - 149)
The article is aimed at practical applying the instrumentarium of economic, mathematical and statistical methods to improve the efficiency of managerial decisions in the context of the development of region. The article examines the components of regional development, defines indicators that characterize the status of the specified components, and provides their dynamics for the period of 2006-2018. Using the instrumentarium of correlation analysis, the density of the link between these indicators and the gross regional product (GDP) as an indicator of regional development is defined. The most influencing factors of regional development are discovered, providing an opportunity to substantiate the directions of dynamic positive mesoeconomic transformations. In particular, it is noted that the change in the real GDP index is most affected by the level of employment of the population, the share of innovative technologies introduced in the region during the relevant period, as well as the volume of consumption of fixed capital. In other words, the most influencing and controlled factors in regional development determine the amount of labor and capital resources involved, as well as the level of technological order. Using the regression analysis, a model of regional development has been built, with the independent variables being the previously identified factors that cause the most significant influence. It is proved that this model meets the criterion of adequacy, and therefore can be used in the subsequent forecast calculations to substantiate the decisions regarding the economic development of Luhansk region. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №5-2020
Bozhenko V. V., Kirilieva A. V.
Research on Causality Between System Risk and the Indicators of Development of the Real Sector of the Economy in Ukraine (p. 176 - 182)
The stable functioning of the national financial system creates objective conditions for increasing the market capitalization of economic entities, increasing the inflow of foreign investment, improving the business climate in the country, as well as increasing the rate of GDP growth. The authors of the article are convinced that the financial and real sectors of the economy are closely related, and therefore it is possible to determine the principium of crisis situations by analyzing the causal relationship between these processes. Granger’s test, which involves the evaluation of auto-regression equations, was chosen as a methodical instrumentarium. To characterize the level of system risk in the country, the financial stress index was chosen, while the status of development of the real sector of the economy was proposed to be analyzed on the basis of the volume of exports of goods, the volume of imports of goods, the index of industrial production, the volume of retail turnover of enterprises, the index of agricultural production. As the informational base of the research was selected the monthly data for the period from April 2008 to December 2019. At the preparatory stage of the research on causality between the level of system risk and the indicators of development of the real sector of the economy, the time series was tested for stationarity, using the expanded Dickey–Fuller test and the stationary time series were converted with the help of the operator of the first and second differences depending on the variable. As a result of the empirical study, it is determined that the cause of the worsening of crisis phenomena in the real sector of the economy is precisely the effect of system risks. Prospect for further research in this direction is to evaluate the extent of the impact of system risks on the status of socio-economic relations in the country. Article is written in Ukrainian
Demchenko K. I.
Regression Analysis of the Impact of Demographic and Economic Indicators on the Status of Pension Provision in Different World Countries (p. 183 - 189)
The article is aimed at studying the effect of impact of demographic and economic indicators on the status of pension provision in 54 different countries of the world for 2010-2019. In the analysis and generalization of scientific works of domestic and foreign scholars, it was found that much attention is paid to the dynamics of expenditures and incomes of pension funds, but not taken into account (sufficiently) is the specific numerical influence of the factors, which can lead to a reduction or increase in the expenditures and incomes of PF. Therefore, it is important to research the effects of the impact of economic and demographic indicators on the financial status of PF in different countries. Using the regression analysis, the article analyzes the impact of the increase in the coefficient of age dependency, rate of pension contribution, unemployment rate, GDP and other indicators on the dynamics of expenditures and incomes of pension funds of different world countries, applying the least square method. The fixed-effect panel study method and heteroskedatric standard errors are used to check the reliability and sustainability of the results, which are clustered at the country level to account for successive correlations. Results are the average effect of impact for the total number of observations, the aggregate effect for the specified unions and organizations and a separate effect for Ukraine. According to the author, the previous pension reforms were not effective enough, given the status of Ukraine’s pension provision, as some procedure for introducing reform was not followed and the necessary resources were not adequately prepared. Therefore, a phased scheme is proposed to introduce a reform, to improve the status of pension provision, and ensure its socio-economic efficiency. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №6-2020
Andrenko O. A., Mordovtsev O. S., Mordovtsev S. M.
The Integral Assessment of the Financial Status and Creditworthiness of Communal Enterprises in Ukraine (p. 116 - 122)
The article is aimed at developing a methodical approach to the integral assessment of the financial status of communal enterprises using the multidimensional statistical analysis method, since a comprehensive assessment of the activities of communal enterprises in the industry, which top the rating, will allow to use their achievements to solve the problems of enterprises-outsiders. It is concluded that the methods of calculating integral indicators presented in the Regulations developed by the NBU and the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine do not adequately reflect the true financial status and level of creditworthiness of enterprises. An approach to the integral assessment of the financial status is proposed, which involves building up a model of an integral index of the financial status of the enterprise; introduction and improvement of the information system for monitoring the financial-economic activities of enterprise; organization of a continuous comprehensive assessment and monitoring the main indicators that characterize the enterprise’s financial potential. The main stages of building up an integral index model using the main component method are described. An integral index, which characterizes the financial status of communal enterprises, is calculated and an industry rating of water supplying communal enterprises is compiled, allowing to respond in a timely manner to the deterioration of financial potential in the development of anti-crisis management solutions for enterprises-outsiders. Further research suggests improving the model through repeated testing for communal enterprises in various industries. This will allow to determine the final set of indicators to form the integral index. Article is written in Ukrainian
Andriushchenko I. S., Zhyliakova O. V.
The Technology for Assessing and Forecasting the Costly Characteristic of Restaurant Enterprises (p. 122 - 128)
The article is aimed at substantiating the technology and developing practical recommendations for assessing and forecasting the costly characteristic of operating activities of restaurant enterprises. The concept and essence of the analytical technology as a part of the cost management system are considered, the technology of the process of assessing and forecasting the costly characteristic of operating activities of restaurant enterprises is structured in the form of an appropriate functional model. As a result of the study of the main indicators of the selective aggregate of restaurant enterprises, an economic-mathematical model is developed, which can be used to: assess the performance of restaurant enterprises; calculate the impact of factors on reducing the operating costs; count the reserves of its decline and forecasting. The resulting model allows to explore the relationships with varying degrees of detail, to substantiate proposals in order to eliminate negative tendencies, and achieve the expected parameters of development. The carried out testing of the proposed model at the Kharkiv enterprises justified its importance for application in the decision-making on cost management of restaurant enterprises. Article is written in Ukrainian
Strilets V. Y.
The Mathematical Formalization of the Impact of Scenario Planning Measures on the Material and Technical Support of the Small Entrepreneurship Development (p. 128 - 134)
The article is aimed at developing a qualitative methodology for assessing material and technical support, allowing to mathematically formalize the impact of scenario planning measures on the development of small entrepreneurship. The publication analyzes the current tendencies in the material and technical support of small business entities using a representative system of absolute indicators; an integral indicator of assessment of the material and technical support is calculated; prospects are extrapolated taking into account the activities of scenario planning of the development of small business enterprises. Research on the current tendencies in the material and technical support of small entrepreneurship showed existence of significant problems (increased wear of production capacities, low profitability of sales, decrease in the share of investment real estate in the main assets of small entrepreneurship, etc.), attempting to overcome these problems, the author proposes a number of measures to improve the material and technical support of small entrepreneurship entities, the implementation of which is part of the scenario planning of the small business development. The carried out forecasting of the taxonomic indicator of the material and technical support assessment by 2035, taking into account the implementation of the proposed measures, confirmed their feasibility and positive influence on the development of small entrepreneurship. The scientific novelty of the article is the developed comprehensive methodology for assessing material and technical support on the basis of the integral indicator, which requires a combination of the system of absolute and relative indicators characterizing both the status and the tendencies of material and technical support of small entrepreneurship entities, and allows to account the strength of indicators of assessment of innovative activity of small entrepreneurship entities in assessing the quality of material and technical support before and after the scenario planning of their development. Article is written in Ukrainian
Baigushev V. V.
Managing the Business Systems of the Flexible Associations of Corporate Structures Based on Critical Parameters (p. 135 - 144)
The article is aimed at developing and researching a conceptual methodical approach to defining the critical parameters of economic activities of business systems to manage the flexible associations of corporate structures (ACS). It is shown that in the conditions of modern economic activity, which is exposed to the factors of market uncertainty, the definition of critical, or marginal, indicators of the parameters of the business systems of the ACS is of particular importance. This is necessary, as any kind of resources of the business systems of the ACS are always limited. At the same time, the efficient use of all available limited resources determines the size of the area of their spectacular use, or the area of flexible management of a corporate association. Based on the analysis of published works, it is identified that the problem of complex accounting of the interaction of costs of all types of economic activities to be accounted for in the business planning of industrial production by the ACS, is not solved to determine the critical parameters. The analysis of the limitations of the margin analysis method for flexible management of the ACS in the face of uncertainty of the market environment does not solve this problem. A conceptual model of the ACS activity is proposed, which is used in this research to form and manage the critical values of parameters expressed through the balance sheet sections and the Lebesgue measure. It is proved that the theoretical value of the developed approach to determining the critical parameters of the business systems of the ACS on the basis of the Lebesgue measure consists in a comprehensively taking into account the interaction of costs of all types of economic activities to be accounted for in business planning of industrial production. The calculation data and graphs are presented, which allow to practically determine the critical indicators of the parameters of the business systems of the ACS and to flexibly manage the parameters of the current consolidated balance sheet to prevent the critical status of the business system of the ACS. Article is written in Ukrainian
Osypenko S. M., Romanchyk T. V., Pisarevsky S. V.
Substantiating the Prices for Enterprise Products on the Basis of Optimization Models (p. 145 - 151)
It is determined that use of the economic-mathematical optimization models should be feasible in substantiating prices and volumes of products in order to maximize the profit of enterprise based on the analytical capabilities of the economic model of break-even production. The task of optimizing the determination of the level of prices and volumes of products in a multi-topic production is formulated in both substantial and mathematical form, allowing to receive the maximum profit at the limits in terms of the size of production capacity. As an optimization parameter, it is proposed to use the value of margin income by types of products for which the optimal values of price and volume are defined. A scheme is developed to solve the formulated task and recommendations are given for the implementation of its blocks. As the baseline data are used the price dependencies and variable costs per production unit on the volume of output, on the basis of which margin income per production unit along with the the corresponding production output are calculated. A step-by-step optimization method has been chosen to solve the task. Every step represents another type of production. Upon it is formed an array of value of margin income for the volume of products in the physical measurement with the selected interval, from which the maximum value is determined. The terms of the restriction are then checked. As result, the maximum margin income and the corresponding prices and production volume are determined for each product. Further, by subtracting from the maximum sum of the total fixed costs, the amount of profit is calculated, which is the maximum for the conditions of these optimization task. The proposed recommendations are checked using the example of conditional data for three types of products. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №7-2020
Dilenko V. О., Tarakanov N. L.
Mathematical Modeling of the Equilibrium Price Formation Taking into Account the Logistic Factor (p. 125 - 130)
The article is aimed at economic and mathematical modeling of influence of logistic mechanisms on the processes of equilibrium price formation. An approach to consideration of logistics factor in mathematical models of the equilibrium price formation is proposed, according to which virtual logistician is introduced into the model, which, unlike the auctionist in the classical economic and mathematical models of this type, acting on one particular rule, is able to choose on a rational way the rule of price adjustment for balancing the market at some given aggregate. In the system «producer – consumer – market», rules of equilibrium price formation can be related to each of the three specified elements. As a criterion of choice of rules are considered the minimum time of achieving the equilibrium price (some approximation) or the maximum sales volumes with the value or natural calculation. Analysis of the constructed mathematical models (proposed modifications of the equilibrium price model of Evans) allows to demonstrate the possibilities of logistic mechanisms that provide improvement of the most important parameters of market functioning. The probable directions of development of the presented results may be related to research of economic and mathematical problems of construction and type assignment of the possible rules of action of the logistician in the market in order to bring it to equilibrium state in the most rational way. Article is written in Russian
BUSINESS INFORM №8-2020
Dogadina V. Y.
Researching the Factors of Influence on the Management of Educational Services in Ukraine (p. 161 - 170)
The article identifies and researches factors of influence on the management of educational services in Ukraine. It turned out that education in all the world countries has always been the driving force of society development, since only the presence of qualified personnel in all sectors of the economy provided an opportunity for effective activity and implementation of scientific-technical progress into production. It is specified that today the principles and methods of management of educational services in Ukraine have undergone dramatic changes, as the market requirements dictate new rules, which are conditioned by certain requirements for the educational process and the creation of such an educational environment that would meet European standards. In order to improve the management of educational services in Ukraine, the factors that the most influence the quality and demand of educational services in educational institutions are singled out. To establish a statistical dependence between random values, a correlation analysis was applied, allowing to determine the presence and magnitude of the dependency between several random values. The linear correlation link between a pair of random values measured at the interval scale is determined according to the Pearson correlation coefficient. Factors of influence on the management of educational services in Ukraine are chosen, which have absolute and relative values. The absolute values of the factors that have an impact on the quality of educational services in institutes, academies, universities of Ukraine are computed; the absolute values of the factors that have an impact on the quality of educational services in colleges, technical schools, schools of Ukraine; the values of factors that have an impact on the quality of educational services in higher education institutions of Ukraine are computed as well. It is concluded that the analysis of absolute values of factors of influence on the management of educational services in Ukraine has a high link. This is explained due to the fact that regions of Ukraine, which have a certain rating as to the provision of educational services, also have competitive advantages in terms of the number and quality of scientific-pedagogical workers and, as a result, a significant number of applicants for education. For the relative factors of influence on the management of educational services, there is no high link between relative indicators. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №9-2020
Shchepilova O. I., Korol M. V.
Applying the Data Modeling Tools for the Gender Inequality Analysis in the IT-industry in Ukraine and Worldwide (p. 165 - 171)
Nowadays, the information-technology industry is one of the most masculine and asymmetrical in the world labor market. The fact of having male workers in more prestigious and highly paid positions is proved, while female workers are more represented in low-profitable sectors of the economy (healthcare, education, social services, etc.). The article is aimed at researching the status of gender inequality in the IT sphere in the labor market of both Ukraine and the world by means of modeling tools. The publication analyzes the current status of gender segregation of labor in the sphere of information technology worldwide and in Ukraine. The relevance of the research on the process of functioning of companies engaged in foreign economic activity is substantiated. Using statistics of the most technological companies in the world (Amazon, Microsoft, etc.) it is proved that the average share of women in the companies comprises 30-40% of all employees. Gender inequality, as it has been proven, harms the business of companies around the world. Replacing female employees who resigned from a job because of the inability to build a career increases business costs and slows down the activities of individual projects and/or companies in general. At present, most large international companies deliberately perceive the need to achieve gender equilibrium among their employees. Despite numerous measures that have a positive impact on the involvement of women in the IT market, there are factors in the global labor market that increase gender discrimination, as emphasized in the article. Economic-mathematical models of the process are built up using multiple regression with panel data. With the help of the appropriate criteria, the quality of the built up models has been proven. Economic interpretation of the results is provided. Prospects for further research in this direction are described. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №10-2020
Kotsyuba O. S.
Estimating the Payback Period of an Investment Project in the Framework of a Fuzzy Set Statement of the Problem (p. 173 - 179)
The article is concerned with the problem of fuzzy-set-based evaluation of the payback period of real investment projects. Initially, the most general features of the approach, which is implemented to find a discounted payback period for an investment project in the form of a fuzzy value (number), were highlighted. After that, the approach to modeling the latter with the help of payback function was thoroughly considered. It is identified that, along with the obvious advantages of this instrument, its significant disadvantage, in terms of the original version, is that the scope of the payback function is limited to the investment projects, for which, after a minimum period of time, when there may be a payback scenario among other scenarios, the sequence of fuzzy estimates of the indicator of accumulated discounted cash flow is non-decreasing. The publication formulates a generalized version of the payback function of the investment project, free from this disadvantage. Using conditional data, the proposed modification was tested, which demonstrated its viability. Particular attention is paid to the formulation and approbation of the indicators that can be obtained on the basis of the payback function and which reflect certain, significant in terms of analytical needs aspects of the payback of the investment project in time. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №11-2020
Savchenko A. M., Fisher N. V.
Determining the Probability of Bankruptcy of Production Enterprise (p. 186 - 191)
The main aim of this publication is to research and substantiate the possibilities of using traditional methods of analyzing the financial position of entrepreneurial entities in conjunction with the methodology for determining the probability of bankruptcy of enterprise. The country’s economy is characterized by a financial and economic crisis, which caused a powerful wave of bankruptcies, which intensified scientific and applied research directed towards introduction of an effective system of early warning and response to the threat of critical bankruptcy at domestic enterprises. Both foreign and domestic methods of analysis of the probability of bankruptcy of enterprise are researched, their advantages, disadvantages and possibility of application are defined. The reasons for the bankruptcy of domestic economic entities are highlighted and a set of actions within the framework of the anti-crisis financial management to prevent bankruptcy is proposed. Both the Western and domestic models of bankruptcy probability assessment are considered. As an example of the Western model, the Altman’s five-factor model and the Springate model were chosen, as an example of the domestic model – the one by O. Tereshchenko and A. V. Matviychuk. The purpose of use of the models analyzed in the article is to determine the financial stability of enterprise in order to assess its financial potential. Also the benefits of using these models among other existing ones along with the factors that may impact them are highlighted. For the example of application of these models data of PJSC «Kyiv Vitamin Plant» was used. Stabilization of finances of enterprises was and will be a priority direction of financial stabilization of both the individual enterprise and the economic system. A practical solution to this problem is possible only by replacing the existing financial policy with flexible forms of it and ensuring the stability of the enterprise operation. Depending on the probability of bankruptcy, regulatory measures such as entering the voluntary administration or the transition to anti-crisis management be implemented. Article is written in Ukrainian
Blahun I. S.
Evaluating the Efficiency of Commercial Banks Using the DEA Method (p. 192 - 197)
The article examines the application of the DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis) method in assessing the efficiency of commercial banks. This approach does not require knowledge of the efficiency function form. Using empirical input values and results of the financial and banking institutions, we are looking for a weight ratio to maximize efficiency. The article is aimed at evaluating the quality of management of commercial banks using the DEA model. As the methodology was chosen the DEA-modeling, because this method eliminates the problem of heteroscedacticity, which occurs during the parametric modeling. In the methodology of the analysis of the environment of the banks’ operation, commercial bank is considered as an economic unit with specific costs, which, as a result of the implemented activities, are used to generate concrete results. The article develops the principle of extracting information from observations. Thus, compared to the parametric approach dealing with the data averaging within a single regression model, the DEA method allows building up a Pareto-optimal-limit of all solutions, taking into account each individual observation. When analyzing the activities of commercial banks, their assets and the number of employees were selected for research taking into account resources, respectively. On the other hand, the result was the achieved value of deposits, the cost of loans, the number of clients of the bank and the provision of this bank, determined by the solvency coefficient. It is determined that the greatest impact on the results of the research have the size of the received deposits and loans of commercial banks. Measuring the efficiency in this article lies in finding a minimum value of the efficiency ratio, which reduces inputs, but so that the level of the source data remains at the same position. Upon the basis of the research, it can be stated that human resources and assets mostly influence the size of deposits and loans and have a high level of efficiency. Therefore, competition between financial institutions for clients is intensifying. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №12-2020
Lagodiienko N. V., Ivanchenkov V. S., Horobets I. I.
Development of a Model of Strategic Controlling for Confectionery Enterprises in the Conditions of Anti-Crisis Management (p. 271 - 279)
Ensuring the harmonious economic development of enterprises in leading sectors of the economy requires constant monitoring of the objectives and the availability of a plan to combat potential crises at various levels of management. The experience of implementing the tools of operational and strategic controlling in enterprises shows a significant increase in the level of competitiveness, improving the forecasting of rapid response to such a problem. The purpose of this article is development of an improved model of analysis and forecasting of the probability of crisis and bankruptcy for the enterprises in confectionery industry. The article analyzes the confectionery industry of Ukraine. The main problems and prospects of the industry development are identified. Strategic controlling as a tool of crisis management is considered. The model of the analysis and forecasting of probability of a crisis situation and bankruptcy at the enterprises of the industry is developed. In contrast to the existing ones, the proposed model for confectionery companies considers the importance of financial indicators in the dynamics, as well as takes into account the external factors of the country (political and social environment). The main advantage is that it is designed for domestic enterprises and allows to take into account their quality indicators and the specifics of activities, as well as the macroeconomic situation in the country. The universality of the indicator of financial condition assessment is that it can be applied both to joint-stock companies (participants of stock exchanges, foreign economic activity) and to enterprises that do not operate in the stock market and are not engaged in foreign economic activity (the first part of the formula). A confectionery company can successfully fight competition only if effective controlling is applied. The calculation of indicators according to the proposed model in a few years will help to predict the threat of a crisis in order to timely implement the necessary management measures to address current problems and avoid them in the future. Preventive anti-crisis management with the use of operational and strategic controlling tools will ensure the implementation of goals and increase the efficiency of the company's management. Article is written in Ukrainian
Hrabynska I. V., Pylypenko O. Y.
The Empirical Evaluation of Both the Internal and the International Fisher Effects for the Economy of Ukraine (p. 279 - 285)
The article works out the essence of theoretical concepts of both the internal and the international effects named after I. Fisher. A review of professional publications gave reason to conclude that in the countries with higher levels of marketing of the economy, the strength of these effects is higher, which indicates a higher level of integration of their national financial markets into the global financial market. Based on the results of an econometric analysis, the authors have concluded about the relative weakness of the internal Fisher Effect and, consequently, on the need to use multifactor analysis in the study of the dynamics of the real interest rate in Ukraine. The empirical evaluation of the dependencies of monetary variables in the model describing the international Fisher Effect gave reason to conclude about the relative weakness of this effect, in particular for the currency pair of «dollar – hryvnia», and therefore, the differential of national interest rates is not sufficient basis for forecasting the dynamics of the foreign exchange rate. The article uses a number of statistical criteria and tests to examine the used econometric model, which gave grounds to conclude about its adequacy and statistical significance of variables. The authors elaborated the factors that have a restrictive impact on the international movement of capital and therefore can cause differences in the real interest rates, especially in emerging markets, namely: asymmetry of market information, psychological barriers, national legislative restrictions that quota the international capital flows, high transactional costs, peculiarities of the tax system, currency risks, political risks, etc. The thesis that the presence of weak Fisher Effects for the Ukrainian economy is one of the reasons for the low effectiveness of the interest channel of the transfer mechanism of monetary policy in Ukraine is substantiated. Article is written in Ukrainian
Polenkova M. V.
Features of the Sale of Export Products of Agricultural Enterprises in the Conditions of Risks (p. 285 - 292)
The article is aimed at modeling the sale of exported crop production and animal husbandry of agricultural enterprises in the conditions of risks. It is identified that agricultural activities are accompanied by a number of threats of socio-economic, financial, market, infrastructure, systemic, environmental and institutional nature; some risks have been exacerbated in recent years due to climate change and food price instability. It is proved that small agrarian enterprises are especially vulnerable to the problems of ensuring their means of livelihood, may experience difficulties in assessing and managing risks, and do not receive an appropriate effect from investment opportunities that can improve business and strengthen their sustainability. Several risks that accompany the agricultural sector of Ukraine and often become real threats to its socio-economic development are allocated as such that are the least taken into account by agricultural enterprises of various organizational forms and sizes. They are gathered to six groups (market; reduction in labor potential; systemic; loss of trust; political; legal). The method of fuzzy sets (fuzzy logic) is applied, based on the Matlab package and the Fuzzy Logic Toolbox module, within which a fuzzy logical classification and inference system is created. The fuzzy format of the calculation results is ensured by the two-step sequence of the formation of sets (phazification and dephazification). According to the results of modeling the optimal export volumes under the influence of external and internal risks, it is proved that ensuring large volumes of plant exports is accompanied by medium and high levels of market risks, medium and high risks of reducing labor potential and medium and high levels of market risks; ensuring large volumes of exports of animal products is accompanied by low and medium levels of market risks, medium and high levels of risk of reducing labor potential, high levels of market risks and high levels of legal risks. The proposed model is favorable for agricultural enterprises in the process of their economic activity in order to identify the strength of either positive or negative impact of risks and other hidden connections to predict and optimize their activities, which will allow to more clearly establish the strategic priorities of their activities and use resources more rationally. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №1-2021
Klepikova O. А., Sokolovska Z. M.
The Information and Analytical Model of the Decision-Making Process for the Development of Health Insurance Programs (p. 119 - 133)
The article is aimed at studying and automating the stages of decision-making process for the development and implementation of health insurance products using the economic, mathematical, and simulation modeling. When analyzing the scientific works of scholars on the development of health insurance in Ukraine, the main stages of the decision-making process are allocated, the major of them are: the market need for an insurance product in the external environment; clear definition of the company’s tactical and strategic goals; examining the properties and characteristics of the insurance product; risk assessment and profitability of the insurance product. In the course of the study, the modeling of risk assessment, profitability of health insurance programs and analysis of the obtained results were carried out in detail. It is substantiated that a comprehensive analysis of the risk and profitability of health insurance programs will allow to form the necessary insurance reserves, to ensure the competitive position of an insurance company and to fulfill the targeted goals. If statistical information is available, any health insurance programs, including the COVID-19 insurance programs that require an assessment of pandemic risk, which requires special attention from both society and insurance, can be analyzed. It should be noted that modeling is a key element for assessing and managing pandemic risk. Prospects for further research in this direction are the expansion of the base of economic, mathematical and analytical models for assessing the risk of insurance portfolio and the inclusion in the simulation model of a wider range of factors of both the external and the internal environment. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №2-2021
Pilko A. D., Kramar V. R.
The Impact of Monetary Policy on the Financial Stability of the Banking System: Setting a Modeling Problem (p. 81 - 88)
The publication is concerned with highlighting the results of the carried out analysis of the existing practice of developing macroeconomic models directed towards determining the main parameters of monetary policy of central banks, as well as assessing their impact on the indicators of financial stability of the banking system. Given the low efficiency of the traditional approaches to the formation of the monetary rule both in countries with developed market economies and in countries with small open economies (in particular, Taylor rule), possible ways to solve this problem are proposed taking into account the existing experience in shaping monetary policy parameters in the context of inflation targeting, which is already available at the NBU. The strengths and weaknesses of the main approaches to the modeling of the monetary transmission mechanism, as well as the forecasting of its impact on the financial stability of the banking system, which are used in the formation of basic and auxiliary models of the central bank, are analyzed. Particular attention is paid to structural econometric models, vector autoregression models and dynamic stochastic models of general equilibrium. As a result, a possible variant for developing an approach to macroeconomic modeling is proposed, in the framework of which assessment and analysis of the impact of monetary policy on the indicators of financial stability of the banking system is envisaged. The practical implementation of this approach makes it possible to develop models for assessing and analyzing the efficiency of the current monetary policy, projecting macroeconomic development scenarios in the short and medium term, which will both directly and indirectly determine the indicators of financial stability of the banking system. Article is written in Ukrainian
Hubanova I. V.
Features of Modeling the Probability of Bankruptcy Using Discriminant Models with Application in Economic Forensics (p. 88 - 93)
The article is aimed at studying the methodologies of forecasting bankruptcy, their application in forensic economic expertise, which will allow to make managerial decisions substantiated from the point of view of financial security of an enterprise and create opportunities for stable functioning and development of the enterprise. All enterprises are affected by negative factors and may find themselves in a crisis situation. That is why the management of enterprise should apply all existing measures to prevent bankruptcy and overcome crisis situations. Any crisis situation can be corrected if you respond to crises in time and form a balanced and adequate management system. Therefore, the use of bankruptcy forecasting methodologies will allow the management of enterprise to identify in advance negative trends in its development. The article analyzed the existing discriminant models for determining the probability of bankruptcy with their application in forensic economic expertise. In modern practice of the financial-economic activities of foreign firms, to assess the probability of bankruptcy, the discriminant models of Altman, Beaver, Taffler, Tishaw and some others received the widest application. It is defined that for a more justified forecast, it is advisable to use several methods at the same time to predict the probability of insolvency (bankruptcy) of enterprise. It is proposed to use a set of models to determine the probability of bankruptcy of enterprise in solving issues of economic forensic expertise, which will significantly increase the degree of probability of the results obtained. The proposed measures can be used not only to diagnose the likelihood of bankruptcy, but also to develop anti-crisis measures. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №4-2021
Podskrebko O. S., Ivanchenko N. O., Tkachenko V. V.
Modeling of the System of Evaluation of Retail Enterprises on the Basis of KPI and Process Approach (p. 66 - 72)
The article proposes a model for evaluating the activities of retail enterprise, which is based on five stages and allows determining ways to increase the efficiency of functioning, which will improve the adaptive properties of the economic object. The analysis of types of KPI is carried out, process and functional approaches are identified as the main ones for the direct development of key performance indicators, as well as the characteristics of the evaluation of effective marketing at enterprises, including those that function in the sphere of retail trade, are determined. The authors considered how modeling and forecasting of key financial indicators of an enterprise contribute to the creation of strategies for its development. The article notes that for the initial evaluation of a retail enterprise focused on long-term success, it is mandatory to conduct an audit aimed at assessing the efficiency of the economic object and defining how quickly the enterprise adapts to dynamic environmental conditions. The carried out analysis allowed to identify the key factors that contribute to an improvement of the enterprise’s operation. Also, on the example of the Isikawa diagram, the ratio of KPI, strategies and understanding of business processes was considered in order to set, control and analyze the achievement of goals. Article is written in Ukrainian
Feshchur R. V., Kolinko N. O., Shyshkovskyi S. V., Skvortsov D. I.
Applied Aspects of Industrial Production Research in Ukraine (p. 73 - 81)
Industry is one of the important sectors of the economy of any country in the world. At the same time, statistics show that the industrial complexes of many countries are developing unevenly, with periodic changes in the structure and volume of production under the influence of many internal and external factors. Ukraine's industrial complex is also undergoing spatial and structural distortions, but these trends do not always correspond to those formed in the world's leading countries in the direction and pace of change, although today the industrial complex of Ukraine is the most important structural part of Ukraine's economy, a third of fixed assets and more than 30% of the employed population. As one of the largest spheres of social production in the country, industrial production determines the level of its socio-economic development, the specialization of the economy and the extent of participation in the territorial division of labor. Properly chosen strategy for the development of industrial production, the appropriate volume and structure of production, a reasonable volume of sales allows all participants in production to achieve their financial goals. This is due to the importance of studying the activities of industrial enterprises. The article constructs nonlinear models of multiple regression, which describe the main trends in industrial production, the effect of external and internal factors on the economic performance of industry in general and industrial enterprises in the western region of Ukraine. It is established that innovative transformations in industrial production have led to the renewal of fixed assets and have had a positive effect on the dynamics of economic results. At the same time, this process was accompanied by a reduction in the number of people employed in industry. It is revealed that the influential factors of the external environment include economic conditions of management, and among the factors of the internal environment – the management of innovation and innovation activity of economic entities. It is recommended to expand the set of tools at the expense of distribution-lag, autoregressive, simulative and other econometric models to describe the relationship between the economic performance of enterprises and factor characteristics. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №5-2021
Sokolovska Z. M., Klepikova O. А., Yatsenko N. V., Marchenko A. V.
Management of Development of Projects of Product IT Companies on Simulation Platforms (p. 108 - 123)
The article is aimed at disclosing the possibilities of using the simulation modeling apparatus in the management of the development of projects of product IT companies. Based on the analysis of a number of literary sources, an overview of research in the field of IT project management is carried out and the existing status of application of the simulation instrumentarium in the solution of applied tasks is described. The compliance of simulation technologies with the special requirements of the tasks inherent in the processes of software products development is substantiated. According to the life cycle of software creation, a brief characterization of the typical stages of project promotion is provided. A simulation model is proposed that reproduces the dynamics of the deployment of product projects of IT companies. The model is built using a hybrid approach – a combination of discrete-event and agent-based methodologies – on the software platform for multi-platform simulation AnyLogic. The discrete-event approach provides a high degree of detail of the processes being modeled. The agent-based approach allows to define the project as a dynamic unit with specific properties, which makes it possible to take into account the peculiarities of products ordered by consumers – clients of an IT firm. The model’s work is demonstrated by the results of standard and optimization simulation experiments implemented on conditional data of an average product IT company. These situations prove the possibility of using the model as a platform for making managerial decisions by the head of the product project development team. The model is presented as a simulator with the modular, open architecture and parametric adjustment for specific conditions of experiments. It may be recommended for product IT companies to practice management of the projects of software development. Article is written in Ukrainian
Lukianenko I. G., Novik A. Y.
Modeling the Impact of Intensification of Migration Processes on the Socio-Economic Stability in Ukraine (p. 123 - 133)
The article is aimed at elaborating an adequate mathematical instrumentarium for the formation of migration flows to assess their impact on the socio-economic stability together with unshadowing the Ukrainian economy, as well as to identify efficient measures of the State-based policy directed towards regulating these flows to prevent risks of socio-economic destabilization. The article carries out an empirical analysis of the peculiarities of the development of migration processes in Ukraine and their impact on the socio-economic state in both the medium and the long term perspective. A system of complementary dynamic macromodels of the Ukrainian economy is developed, which includes a vector autoregression model and a separate complex of simulated submodels of systemic dynamics aimed at researching migration processes and their impact on the indicators of socio-economic stability. At this, the developed models of system dynamics can be combined into a single original simulation macromodel of Ukraine, and be used independently subject to the research goals. This allows to adequately describe complex nonlinear processes, systemically identify and examine the mechanisms of supply and demand formation in the labor market, taking into account the shadow component and assess their impact on the formation of the size of migration flows, as well as to research the consequences of increasing the intensity of migration processes on the socio-economic stability in Ukraine. The implementation of the developed complex of dynamic models has allowed, in particular, to calculate the annual value of the net migration flow in Ukraine through the aging chain of the population; to empirically confirm that migration flows in Ukraine are underestimated; to detect the dynamic structure of the net migration balance and a noticeable fading of the amplitude of migration processes over time, which indicates the presence of a balancing structure for the formation of migration flows. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №6-2021
Savchyn I. Z., Tsareva O. S.
Correlation of the Main Indicators of Economic Development of Regions (p. 90 - 99)
The stability of dynamics of economic phenomena in the regional economy is associated with the general level of economic development of the country. The most important studies are based on the results of the analyses of the economy of developed countries. The article formulates conclusions on the relationship between economic differentiation and economic stability, as well as between instability and economic growth. Research of regional development should be based on a comprehensive and comprehensive definition of the management object – the region. Therefore, the authors emphasize that studying the economic development of regions is of particular relevance in modern economic conditions, when decentralization processes are taking place in Ukraine. To study the status of Ukraine’s economy at the regional level, it is proposed to implement a methodology based on the methods of synthesis and gradual specifying. To formalize the results of the practical application of the proposed research methodology, generally accepted indicators of the dynamics of certain directions of the country’s economy development were used. The use of dynamics indicators allowed to identify, on the one hand, long-term tendencies and trends of individual elements, and on the other hand, short-term changes in the processes of economic growth and development. The use of the built regression model can be used in forecasting GDP values per capita within the framework of the regional economic development policy. The authors demonstrate that an analysis of the similarity of dynamics of indicators of the economy of regions (correlation) and the dynamics of results of their economic activity, calculated according to the GRP indicator per capita, should be applied when substantiating the provisions of the regional economic development policy. It is recommended to build the policy of economic development of the regions taking into account the experience of the above-mentioned regions in the sphere of economic development. An interdependence is identified, which indicates an increase in the share of the resource economy and a decrease in the share of the science-intensity economy, the development of which contributes to the welfare of the country’s population. Article is written in Ukrainian
Tyzhnenko A. G.
Displaying the R-Assessment of the Enterprise’s Level of Financial Condition on the Verbal-Numerical Scale (p. 100 - 107)
The publication considers the features of construction of the so-called «Harrington’s scale», which is widely used for economic research in Ukraine. It is demonstrated that the scale proposed by Harrington cannot be applied for arbitrary economic indicators. For the purposes of this study, an analysis of the applicability of the Harrington’s function for specific economic studies is carried out and it is shown that the «Harrington’s scale» cannot be applied to economic indicators, the increase in the value of which indicates an increase in the «quality» of the functioning of enterprise, for example, such as the «economic potential of the enterprise» or the enterprise’s «level of financial condition» (the latter requires the construction of a verbal scale according to the new probabilistic principle which is considered in this article). The indicator of «level of financial condition» is chosen because, as a rule, the current monitoring of the financial condition of enterprise is to be carried out automatically, by means of the appropriate tools, based on the multi-criteria methods for assessing the level of financial condition. One of these methods is the method of R-assessment of the financial condition of enterprise according to the Sayfullin – Kadykov model, which takes into account five criteria and puts them in line with the R-assessment. The article considers the main provisions of Harrington’s work in order to provide the possibility of correct use of the Harrington’s desirability function for the qualitative assessment of economic indicators, including complex and integral indicators that are used to monitor the financial condition of enterprise. The article proposes another function in place of desirability function, namely the function of distribution of the indicator under research, whether theoretical or empirical. In addition, the limit values that separate the different values of the linguistic variable at the base interval are proposed to be determined according to the statistics of the group of companies to which the enterprise under research belongs, or can be included according to the criterion of homogeneity with any enterprise of the researched group. An example of constructing the correct qualitative scale for a normally distributed variable of «level of financial condition of the enterprise» at the probabilistic level is provided. Attention is drawn to the fact that the boundary values of the qualitative scale significantly depend on the law of distribution of the variable under research. Article is written in Ukrainian
Fatyanov D. V.
The Information-Analytical Provision of Analyzing the Export-Import Potential of Enterprise (p. 107 - 113)
The article contains theoretical and practical recommendations on analyzing the export-import potential of industrial enterprises in modern conditions; the content of the information-analytical provision for analysis of such a potential is considered. The expediency of organizing the technology of analysis of export-import potential of the enterprise (EIPE) is substantiated according to the following logic of stages: 1) description of this potential on the grounds of signs and formation of a system of indicators; 2) establishing tendencies in changing the values of indicators based on the analysis of their dynamics; 2) comparison of the achieved levels of values with planned or normative (reference), accompanied by the search and detection of reserves and diagnosis of critical situations; 3) determination of the external environmental factors influence; 4) determination of levels of development of structural components of potential on the basis of integral indicators; 5) determination of causal relationships of elemental composition of the potential; 6) determination of the internal environmental factors influence; 7) analysis of dynamics of structural changes in the export-import potential; 8) determination and analysis of reserves for the efficiency of the use of the EIPE; 9) forecasting the values of the EIPE indicators for a better understanding of the changes taking place. In the information provision of analyzing the EIPE it is recommended to include partial and integral indicators that form a hierarchical system of indicators to describe this potential; criteria to determine the degree of achievement of the goal of functioning and development; references of the indicators that allow comparing and carrying out an analysis. The system of signs of the export-import potential in general should be presented as complex and elementary features, namely: signs of structural components of the potential; signs of mechanisms for implementing the potential; signs of processes belonging to the potential; signs of the external environment factors influence on the potential; signs of the internal environment factors influence on the potential. A list of the main analytical tasks in the analysis of export-import potential together with methods of their solution is proposed. Such information and analytical provision represents a scientific basis and has practical significance in the management of the EIPE. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №7-2021
Baliuk Y. S.
The Factors of Development of Export-Import Activity of Domestic Industrial Enterprises (p. 91 - 100)
The article generalizes the main external environment factors that affect the development of export-import activities of domestic industrial enterprises in modern conditions; the external environment factors that directly affect this activity are distinguished. The expediency of analysis of lag influence of external environment factors is substantiated. It is recommended to carry out the process of analysis of external environment factors that affect the development of export-import activity of industrial enterprises in the following sequence of stages: 1) theoretical-logical analysis of the main factors of external environment impact on the development of export-import activity in the country; 2) analysis of external environment factors that directly affect the development of this activity of enterprises; 3) analysis of the main tendencies in the dynamics of the directly affecting external environment factors; 4) determination of causal relationships in the system of the directly affecting external environment factors; 5) determination of dependence of the volume of industrial products sold on the directly affecting external environment factors; 6) determination of the lag influence of external environment factors that directly affect the development of export-import activities of industrial enterprises; 7) development of administration measures to strengthen the development of export-import activities of domestic industrial enterprises. The above specified sequence of stages facilitates the organization of the process of determining factors and directions of development of export-import activity in Ukraine. The article proposes a list of analytical instruments that should be used in the analysis of external environment factors that affect the development of export-import activities of industrial enterprises. Article is written in Ukrainian
Zinenko K. A.
The Scientific-Methodological Approach to Assessing the Economic Security of Construction Enterprise (p. 101 - 108)
The article is aimed at developing a scientific-methodological approach to a comprehensive assessment of the economic security of a construction enterprise. The author proposes the scientific-methodological approach consisting of the following stages of assessment: 1) assessment of the level of economic security according to the functional components of the construction enterprise, based on the taxonomic approach to the formation of the general integral indicator by V. Plyut method; 2) assessment of the influence of the stakeholders’ interests on the level of economic security of a construction enterprise according to certain groups based on the expert method of score and factor analysis; 3) assessment of the impact of useful (opportunity) and destabilizing (threat) factors on the economic security of a construction enterprise by groups of stakeholders using the factor analysis methods; 4) ranking of stakeholder groups taking into account the priority of influence on the level of economic security of the construction enterprise; 5) determination of the general level of economic security of the construction enterprise, taking into account the interests and factors of influence by groups of stakeholders on the basis of the construction of a comprehensive integrated indicator of economic security of the construction enterprise. Carrying out an assessment of the economic security of a construction enterprise on the basis of the proposed scientific-methodological approach, taking into account the impact of the implementation of stakeholder interests and factors of influence by stakeholder groups, provides an opportunity to obtain a comprehensive assessment of the level of economic security of the enterprise, which contributes to the adoption of more effective managerial decisions to improve the level of economic security, stability of the functioning and development of the construction enterprise. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №9-2021
Cherepanova V. О., Sylka I. V.
Optimizing the Intellectual Property Management in Accordance with a Process-Functional Approach (p. 41 - 51)
The article is aimed at developing a way to optimize the management of intellectual property (IP) objects by a process-functional approach based on the use of neural networks in combination with planning networks in conditions of uncertainty. When analyzing the works of various scholars, conceptual approaches to the formation of IP management according to both the process and the functional approaches to management were considered. The use of artificial neural networks in intellectual property management at industrial enterprises in combination with network planning in conditions of uncertainty is systematized. Neural networks consist of different architectures, but to manage intellectual property it is advisable to use either Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) by Kohonen, or Generative Pre-trained Transformer 3 (GPT-3), or Rumelhart Multilayer Perceptron, or an combination of the above. It is proved that the proposed scientific approach (instrumentarium) in the form of neural networks and network planning allows reducing the time for implementation of works related to the management of intellectual property at industrial enterprises on the grounds of a process-functional approach. Based on the carried out study, the computation of spent time was carried out, which confirmed the efficiency of the implementation of neural networks in combination with network schedule for the management of intellectual property in industrial enterprises. Prospects for further research in this direction are the development and construction of a universal instrument using neural networks and network schedule. Further development of intellectual property management will increase production efficiency and profitability of enterprises. Article is written in Ukrainian
Kotsyuba O. S.
Measurement of Economic Risk for a Non-Probabilistic Problem Formulation (p. 52 - 58)
The subject of the article is the methodical apparatus for quantitative assessment of the degree of economic risk for the situation of decision-making, under load of the nonstochastic (nonprobabilistic) uncertainty. The research implemented the task of further development of fuzzy-multiple risk measurement instrumentarium for the case of simultaneous nonstochastic uncertainty of assessments of the criterial economic indicator (criterion) and its norm. In accordance with the set goal and methodical approach to the interpretation of fuzzy assessments on the basis of an analogy between random and fuzzy values in the work a number of practically significant situations determined by the nature of the nonstochastic assessments of the criterial economic indicator and its norm were consistently considered, for each of these mathematical ratios were found to calculate the degree of risk. The proposed calculation formulas were tested on conventional examples. The results of the tests showed the capability of the developed computing apparatus. The research also focuses on the situation of risk measurement, when the assessment of the criterial economic indicator is modeled as a random variable, while its normative level is described by an assessment, either interval or fuzzy. As a perspective direction of further scientific research on the issues raised in the article, the formation of some generalized methodology for quantitative assessment of the degree of economic risk, which would allow to measure the risk for various situations of information uncertainty from a single theoretical position, is defined. Article is written in Ukrainian
Lysenko O. V.
Modeling the Volumes of a Special Stabilization Reserve Fund (Example of the Hotel «Zhovtnevyi») (p. 58 - 64)
The article specifies the use of an economic-mathematical instrumentarium to ensure a sufficient level of financing of operating periods of enterprises. This instrumentarium is represented by a special stabilization reserve fund of enterprises and a system of models: a model of the formation of the fund, its adaptive mathematical model and an algorithmic model of fund management, implemented in the form of a relevant computer program for assessing the volumes of additional financing and recovery and the volumes of increase of the fund. To build a conceptual model of the process of ensuring financing of operating periods of enterprises, system analysis methods along with predictive proportional method were used, which is due to the use of data of balance sheet statements of enterprises. The economic essence of the process is a special stabilization reserve fund of the enterprise, which, according to the legislation of Ukraine, is formed at the expense of its own investments and is created at the conscious desire of the owners, and this is fixed in the statutory documents of enterprises. The mathematical essence of the process is a system that contains a mathematical and an algorithmic models of the fund. In order to assess the volumes of the special stabilization reserve fund of the enterprise, an analytical approach to the value of money over time was applied to the analysis of the cost function. Quantitative assessment of the upper limit of the increase in the special stabilization reserve fund of enterprises is based on the assumption that the forecast amount of money flow of costs for each subsequent operating period will reflect the financial limit of the development of the process in the next period in a crisis-free situation. The mathematical model of the fund easily adapts to the working conditions of each particular enterprise. It can be used even in the downturn production process as a stabilizing investment. The proposed instrumentarium should be used both for production enterprises and for enterprises providing services, for example, hospitality institutions. The publication is based on statistics of the hotel «Zhovtnevyi» (Ukraine). Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №10-2021
Pilko A. D., Trukhym L. R.
The Perspective Directions of Modeling the Processes of Estimation and Analysis of Investment Component of the Socio-Economic Development of Region (p. 116 - 121)
The publication is devoted to highlighting the results of the study of the existing practice of evaluating and analyzing the indicators that determine and characterize investment processes at the regional level. The carried out analysis of available methods of assessment of the investment climate of region showed that quite often in the process of research a number of factors are not taken into account, which, under other equal conditions, can become pivotal in the process of deciding whether to invest or abandon such an intention. It is proved that the size and efficiency of use of the investment climate of individual territorial systems and entire regions will depend both on the level of investment attractiveness and investment activity, as well as on investment potential and the level of investment security provided. In other words, precisely investment potential and investment security act as prerequisites and a basis for the formation and practical implementation of investment policy at both the national and the local levels. As a result of the carried out analysis of the extant approaches to solving the problem of evaluation and analysis of the main parameters and characteristics of investment activity at the regional level, the main shortcomings and weaknesses of the currently available developments are identified. This made possible to outline promising areas of analysis using the advantages and capabilities of economic and mathematical methods and models. A practical implementation of the perspective directions of analysis with the use of an appropriate economic and mathematical instrumentarium allows to form models for assessing and analyzing the investment component of the socio-economic development of region, as well as projecting scenarios for regional socio-ecological and economic development in the short and medium term. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №11-2021
Prymostka L. O., Sokolovska N. S.
The Measurement (Assessment) and Modeling of the Operational Risk of Bank (p. 144 - 153)
In modern conditions of implementing banking activity under the influence of rapid technologization, the worldwide globalization and transformation processes, there is a significant vulnerability to risks. The risks that banks are exposed to during their activities can be divided into those that are subject to quantitative measurement (assessment) and those that cannot be quantified. Among all banking risks, operational risk has the greatest unpredictability and destructive nature of influence on the bank, able of instantly jeopardizing as the bank’s activities so its functioning. Operational risk is one of the risks that are inherent in quantitative measurement (assessment). Measurement (assessment) of the bank’s operational risk is an element of management of such a risk. The impact of operational risk on banking activities is manifested in the amount of economic effect (losses). To assess the economic effect of the impact of operational risk on banks, a retrospective approach was used as part of the study described in the article. The study on assessment of losses from operational risk was carried out on the basis of analysis of statistical data on the operational risk events in both the worldwide and the domestic banking practice for the last 30 years: from 1991 to 2021. Since the norms for maintaining databases of internal and external events of operational risk by the banks of Ukraine are correspondingly applied as mandatory and additional instruments for measuring operational risk since 2018, the authors of the article carry out modeling and analysis of the aforementioned databases of operational risk events on the basis of statistical data on the operational risk events for 2018–2021. As a result of the study, the model of measurement (assessment) of economic effect (losses) of operational risk, taking into account its sources, is specified. The model approbation in practical banking activities will increase efficiency of the operational risk management. A prospect for further research on measurement (assessment) and modeling of operational risk can be the accumulation of data on operational risk events for more annual periods and the construction on their basis of the model of losses from the operational risk of bank. Article is written in Ukrainian
Geleverya Y. M., Chudna A. O.
Modeling and Optimization of the Self-Cost of Production of an Entrepreneurial Structure (p. 154 - 161)
The article is aimed at analyzing the production self-cost of dairy products as an indicator of the efficiency of the economic activity of the entrepreneurial structure. The analysis consists in: determining which indicators of the articles of calculation form the self-cost of production for a certain period of their description; modeling the degree of influence of the calculation elements on the indicator; search and selection of practical measures to optimize the production self-cost of products of the enterprise Kharkiv Dairy Plant LLC. In the course of analysis of the dairy market of Ukraine, important problems of the industry are highlighted and the following factors of influence on the self-cost of production are identified: shortage of dairy raw materials, increasing the share of imported goods, and industrialization of enterprises. The dynamics of changes in the structure of production self-cost and production volume of dairy enterprise products within 22 months is considered. It was found that the main impact on the production self-cost have raw materials and wages of employees. After solving the equation of multiple linear regression using matrices, an adequate economic and mathematical model is obtained with the level of influence of six articles of calculation on the production self-cost of 1 tons of the fermented milk drink with the «Laktomix» fruit filler. The articles of calculation, in turn, represent the sum of productions of specific norms of costs and prices for them. Practical measures to optimize and reduce the production self-cost of dairy products on the part of the enterprise and on the part of the State are considered. Some measures are already being implemented at the enterprise, the other still exist only in the plans. One of the effective measures to optimize the self-cost of production is the use of membrane technologies, innovative biotechnological solutions, recycling of reverse waste and expansion of sales areas, which leads to an increase in production and sales of products. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №12-2021
Blahun S. I.
Researching the Impact of Financial Innovations on the Main Financial Indicators of Ukraine (p. 108 - 113)
The article researches the impact of financial innovation on the yield of government bonds based on the models of ARCH family, it is proved that the introduction of financial innovations affects government bonds. It is determined that the dynamics of volatility of many financial variables is subordinated to stable regularities. The traditional pricing model for capital assets and its dynamic modification indicate a proportional relationship between the expected over-delivery of the market portfolio and its conditional standard deviation. The ARCH model is a natural instrument for studying this problem in a dynamic context where the conditional dispersion changes over time. The results confirm the influence of the exogenous factor of diffusion of financial innovations on the yield of government bonds of market participants in all cases. So, for the government bond yield curves, there is a significant possibility of forecasting. This is a very important issue in terms of active bond trading and taking into account the risk management of the loan portfolio. The influence of information flows and messages to financial markets regarding the behavior of the rates of two main foreign currencies, namely: the Euro and the US dollar, is researched. It is determined that there is a significant influence with the introduction of financial innovation along with information of market participants on exchange rates, which is expressed by the diffusion coefficient during the period of time chosen by diffusion. It is proved that the diffusion coefficient has a significant impact on market participants in terms of average profitability and historical volatility, it is also researched that the introduction of financial innovations reduces the displacement of model coefficients and volatility. The methodology presented in this publication can be used to compare different classes of assets, indices, and financial innovations. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №1-2022
Drobchak M. O., Yakovenko O. H.
Inventory Management Modeling in the Budget Process of an Industrial Enterprise (p. 152 - 158)
The article is aimed at studying and substantiating the role of stocks in the budget process of an industrial enterprise, as well as elaborating a dynamic economic and mathematical model of inventory management, which would take into account the stochastic nature of demand for products and maximize profits that directly depend on the volume of output and, accordingly, on the stocks of finished products and raw materials available in stock. Since stocks affect profits, which, in turn, reflect a positive financial result of the enterprise, the application of the elaborated model will be the key to more effective activities of the economic entity as a whole. In addition, the use of the elaborated model simplifies the process of developing the enterprise’s budgets. The article proposes a perspective method for solving the problem of inventory management of an industrial enterprise in the budget process, taking into account the stochastic nature of demand. The simulation model of order formation and dynamic model of inventory management are elaborated, which allows to determine for each individual period the optimal production volumes that contribute to maximizing the total profit of the enterprise. The connection of stocks and budget is determined and the role of stocks in the budget process is established, as well as the need for research in this area. The elaborated model was applied at an industrial enterprise, which confirmed its effectiveness. Calculations for two different strategies for the purchase of raw materials are made and the optimal volumes of monthly production are determined. The result obtained through the use of the described methods is analyzed. The elaborated model can be used in the planning and development of budgets at any enterprise engaged in production activities. The actual direction of further research is the development and automation of the budgets consolidation system. Article is written in Ukrainian
Nepran A. V., Tymchenko I. Y.
Determination of Intra-Variable Losses of Working Time of Equipment by the Method of Instantaneous Observations (p. 159 - 164)
The article considers the use of the method of instantaneous observations to determine the intra-variable losses of working time and operating time of equipment by the method of instantaneous observations. The application of the method of instantaneous observations is especially relevant in the conditions of mass production, especially in the conditions of automated and semi-automated production. Additional reserves for the use of variable working time and increased productivity have been revealed. A separate example considers the method of applying the method of instantaneous observations to determine intra-variable losses. Based on the obtained results, absolute and relative indicators were calculated according to the elements of variable time fund losses. When processing the results of sample observation, averages were calculated, which characterize the average number of downtimes or average time loss per machine in absolute terms. It was found that non-production losses were recorded in 245 cases, which was 14.85% of the variable fund of equipment operating time. Based on the analysis of these indicators, it was concluded about the uneven use of variable stock of operating time of machines. The amount of losses of the variable working time fund, calculated on the basis of the method of instant observations, was much larger compared to the method of photography of the working day. The use of the method of instant observation in the company requires significantly fewer workers than in the photography of working time. The use of this method allows to obtain sufficiently reliable results that can be used in operational production at an industrial enterprise. Article is written in Ukrainian
Kyshakevych B. Y., Migulka О. О.
The Determinants of Efficiency in Terms of the Scale of Operations by Leasing Companies in Ukraine (p. 165 - 171)
The article contains a regression model for assessing the average value of the efficiency of the scale of operations by leasing companies in Ukraine, which is built on the basis of DEA analysis. To determine the factors that cause a statistically significant impact on performance indicators obtained on the basis of DEA analysis, the authors use the appropriate regression models for panel data. To assess the efficiency of the scale of Ukrainian leasing companies for the analyzed period, the input-oriented DEA model with variable VRS and sustainable CRS scale effects was used. A statistical sample of the performance indicators of 21 leasing companies in Ukraine was formed, which was obtained from their financial and accounting statements for 2019-2020. Due to the significant sensitivity of SE scale efficiency to input and output variables, it was proposed to use an average scale efficiency value based on eight different DEA models. It is noted that if the CCR model determines the success of the management of a leasing company in the transformation of input resources into the output ones, then the efficiency of scale evaluates the correctness of choosing the scale of the leasing company. The analysis showed that the efficiency of the scale of the lessor’s activities in most cases depends on determinants such as administrative costs, fixed assets, and net profit of such companies. The obtained results indicate that with the increase in the size of the leasing company, the efficiency of the scale of their active operations decreases, since with an increase in the size of fixed assets and the volume of administrative costs, the average efficiency of the scale of their activities decreases. It is shown that the greater the net profit, the closer leasing companies work to the optimal scale of activity for them, which is determined by the volume of long-term receivables of the lessor and the size of his assets. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №3-2022
Vovk V. A., Havrylchenko O. V.
Formation of Directions for Increasing the Investment Attractiveness of Enterprise on the Basis of Methods of Economic-Mathematical Modeling (p. 38 - 48)
The article is aimed at defining the general directions for increasing the investment attractiveness of a construction enterprise on the basis of the use of economic-mathematical methods that allow taking into account the real state of the enterprise along with the impact of the external environment, and forming the main trends for the short term. On the basis of factor analysis, the main factors of influence on the investment activity of the enterprise are determined. On the grounds of the defined factors, the main directions for increasing the level of investment attractiveness of the enterprise under study are formed. Applying the method of analysis of hierarchies, it is identified that the most appropriate from the point of view of experts is the direction of development of financial intermediation between the bank and its clients. At the same time, this method is the safest, because it does not pose a threat to the growth of the amount of borrowed funds, at the same time, the attractiveness as a potential object of investment increases due to more favorable conditions for the provision of funds from the bank. In addition, in cooperation with banks of the Kharkiv region, an increase in the investment attractiveness of the region is ensured. Investment activity of economic entities is constantly influenced by the changing factors of the external and internal environment, so its research, including by using the methods of economic-mathematical modeling, remains relevant and requires further research in this direction. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №5-2022
Polianskyi V. O.
Analyzing the Prognostic Properties of Composite Uncertainty Indices in the Preventive Crisis Management Systems (p. 84 - 91)
The publication researches the prognostic properties of composite indicators obtained on the basis of the method of the main components and uncertainty indices, allowing to provide a qualitative assessment of the probability of a «shock». The base of signal indicators for assessing the efficiency of composite uncertainty indices as preventive indicators is substantiated; a composite uncertainty index based on the methods of reduction of signs, in particular, the method of the main components, is elaborated; the predictive properties of the composite uncertainty index are evaluated in comparison with the generally accepted system of signal indicators. The received results showed that the most common signal indicators for both the developed and the developing economies have low preventive power and actually reflect the beginning of the recession phase, that is, the moment of the onset of a crisis. Further on, the indicators under consideration do not always allow prognosing the duration of the crisis phase. It is demonstrated that the traditional system of signal indicators is advisable to supplement with uncertainty indices that allow to predict a crisis with a certain warning lag. An approach to building a composite uncertainty index based on such a method of reduction of signs as the method of the main components is proposed. A comparative assessment of the efficiency of the signal indicator systems based on the NSR indicator made it possible to conclude that the composite uncertainty index has a better preventive characteristic of crises development, which can be used in the preventive management systems for the purposes of the timely use of the instruments of financial stabilization and security provision. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №7-2022
Alizade A. R.
Regarding One Cointegration Task of Trade Relations Between Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Georgia (p. 49 - 60)
In this article, the integration processes between Azerbaijan, Ukraine and Georgia are considered through the indicators of integratedness of Azerbaijan’s GDP and the trade turnover of this country with the other two. All the time series considered are non-stationary. Therefore, the construction of a model of correlation-regression analysis will lead to the obtainment of shifted estimates of the coefficients. So, there are problems of correct modeling of the corresponding time series, the components of which lead to a deviation from stationarity. The publication uses an econometric integration methodology for modeling the relationship between the non-stationary time series. The modeling correctly used econometric methods, all the necessary step-by-step statistical procedures to determine the order of integration of the non-stationary time series – to identify and evaluate the parameters of the model and to check its adequacy and accuracy of both the short-term and the long-term forecast values using the tools of Excel and the EViews 8 package. An analysis of empirical tests for their deviation from the trend was carried out. The speeds of elimination of the imbalance and the visible convergences of the corrective system from the equilibrium trajectory are determined. A dynamic model of the long-term equilibrium is built, allowing to qualitatively forecast the state of foreign trade integration of the three countries under consideration and analyze the openness of the Azerbaijani economy in the regional aspect. As a result of the constructed model, econometric substantiated recommendations have been developed that allow for a dynamic analysis of effective State regulation of export-import operations between these countries to balance mutual trade. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №8-2022
Kyshakevych B. Y., Migulka О. О.
Assessing the Efficiency of Leasing Operations in the Case of an Annuity Scheme for Calculating Leasing Payments (p. 75 - 80)
The article proposes a method for assessing the efficiency of leasing operations in the case of an annuity scheme for calculating leasing payments, which is based on comparing leasing with loan that is close in terms of economic essence to the method of financing real investments. This approach is often used by leasing companies and other participants in the leasing market in the United States when assessing the efficiency of leasing agreements. In the development of mathematical instrumentarium, the authors took into account the peculiarities of taxation and the functioning of all parties to leasing contracts in Ukraine and the current legislative and other regulatory documents in this area. This approach to assessing the efficiency of a leasing agreement is based on the fact that two cash flows, payments on which occur at different points in time, will be considered equivalent if their current values (or accrued amounts) calculated at the same discount rates turn out to be equal. In determining the discounted value of cash flows under the leasing agreement, it was taken into account that leasing payments, in addition to the minimum rental payments, also include the cost of services payable to the lessor, taxes and unforeseen leasing payments. Thus, if the present value of the company’s cash flows during leasing is greater than the present value of the cash flows of the same enterprise taking a loan, then it can be stated that the purchase of equipment through credit borrowings will be more profitable for the enterprise. Conversely, if the present value of the company’s cash flows during leasing is less than the present value of the cash flows of the same enterprise taking a loan, then the cost of equipment obtained through leasing will be lower compared to the purchase through loaning, and therefore it is more expedient for the enterprise to stick with the leasing agreement. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №9-2022
Manoilenko O. V., Volosnikova N. M., Reshetnyak N. B.
The Complex System of Simulation Modeling of Assessment of the Efficiency of Financial Resource Management of an Industrial Enterprise at the Microeconomic Level (p. 27 - 33)
The purpose of the article is to examine the features of a systematic approach to the total aggregate of methods for assessing the efficiency of resource management of an industrial enterprise, which methods can be divided into threshold and non-threshold, parametric and non-parametric ones. The peculiarity of a systematic approach to the corporate security system is studied and the main stages of this approach are identified. It is specified that a systematic approach is such one in the presence of which managerial decisions aimed at a competitive direction of strategic development of corporate security be considered in the form of an interconnected and interdependent integral complex. The objectives of the corporate security strategy of an industrial enterprise are substantiated, which should be subordinated to the general strategy of economic development, and the implementation of the management of the strategy for the formation of general corporate security, carried out through decision-making. It is concluded that the mechanism of management of the corporate security system must be represented as an integral organizational-economic system, which is also an integral part in the overall structure of the mechanism of an industrial enterprise. The main tasks and components of the model of the strategy of general corporate security are identified. In addition, it is noted that mechanism should be understood as a sequence of measures that are caused by an aggregate of interdependent elements of economic, logistics, personnel, legal, resource, transactional, information, technological security, forming the state and content of processes in accordance with a certain corporate security strategy. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №12-2022
Blahun I. S., Nadvirnianskyi Y. R.
Applying the Gravity Models for the Analysis of Trade between Ukraine and the European Union (p. 140 - 145)
This article presents the application of gravitation models in bilateral trade in agricultural products such as wheat, corn and barley between Ukraine and the European Union. The power of influence of factors related to the process of globalization on the volume of trade flows of agricultural products between countries is shown. These determinants were considered as an alternative to the physical distance between countries in the equation of gravity proposed by Jan Tinbergen. Trade relations between the EU and Ukraine are of interest in influencing the functioning of the entire sector of the economy. The weight of these ties is especially important if we take into account such sensitive markets as, e. g., market of agricultural products. In this case, trade and its results are affected by complex agricultural policies, including diversified support instruments or rules applicable in the EU and in Ukraine. Disparities in the scale of financial support for individual markets and their impact on the level of domestic prices have led to a diversification of the impact on trade turnover. This phenomenon also explains the lack of mutual attractiveness of economies in terms of trade flows. In the traditional gravitation model, the value of trade between any two countries is proportional (all other things being equal) to the GDP gain of these countries and inversely proportional to the distance separating them. In today’s global economy, physical distance between countries is no longer such a significant brake on international trade, and thus the distance in the gravitation model can be understood as the degree of similarity between economies trading with each other. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №1-2023
Shabelnyk T. V., Marena T. V., Shabelnyk M. M.
The Model of Control and Risk Assessment of Foreign Economic Security of National Economies in the Conditions of Global Crises (p. 40 - 47)
The aim of the research work is to form a model of control and risk assessment of foreign economic security (FES) of national economies in the conditions of global crises. Its implementation will make it possible to take into account the likely future threats of FES in time and introduce effective mechanisms for their extinguishing or reduction in the present time to form an optimal trajectory for the development of foreign economic relations. The article substantiates that as the forecast values of FES indicators for the formation of a model of control and risk assessment of FES of national economies, it is advisable to include the following indicators: the level of openness of the economy; import export coverage ratio; growth rates of exports and imports; the share of imports in domestic consumption of the country; level of unemployment. As a method of forecasting the FES indicators, it is proposed to use a consensus forecast based on the principle of calculating the median values of indicators based on expert assessments by macroeconomic analysis and forecasting specialists. The practical implementation of the model of control and risk assessment of the FES of national economies was carried out on the example of the Ukrainian economy as one that is subject to the strong influence of crisis phenomena that cause a complex of threats to the FES. The projected level of FES risk for Ukraine according to a pessimistic and probable estimate is dangerously high, according to an optimistic one – high. This means the presence of a destabilizing negative impact of the crisis occurrences on the foreign economic activity of the national economy and a significant decrease in its functionality. To ensure the proper level of the FES of Ukraine in the context of crisis, it is necessary to: improve the regulatory framework by introducing a mandatory norm for calculating the FES index annually along with the forecast value of the risk level; introduction of mechanisms to increase Ukraine's role in the world trade system through the development of high-tech sectors of the economy, in particular through attracting international investment; search for new opportunities for foreign trade cooperation and development of the internal market. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №2-2023
Lysenko O. V.
Modeling of Price Changes for Standard Rooms in Polish Hotels (Krakow) (p. 93 - 98)
The tendencies in the development of the hotel industry in Europe and in Poland in particular are analyzed. Extensive and relevant statistical material was taken from booking sites as of November 2022. Most often, the analysis of economic tendencies in the development of the hotel industry is based on expert assessments or statistical data from travel agencies. The conducted analysis is based on mathematical modeling and the use of Microsoft Excel mathematical and statistical tools. The world market of hotel services is constantly changing, has a dynamic structure, develops in interaction with other markets of goods and services, is influenced by the market environment. Therefore, modern hotels have to adapt to a new type of tourists with rather high requirements for accommodation conditions. In Europe, there is a tendency to stay in 1* and 2* hotels. The study covers data from the Polish city of Krakow. These data represent the spatial series, on the basis of which regression mathematical models are built for evaluating the tendencies of changes in the level of prices for the corresponding hotel rooms. The series are spatial because the data are collected at a specific point in time, but from different objects located geographically at different points. The built models are not representative, but they provide an opportunity to assess the tendencies of price growth or decline and the possibility of entering into crisis economic occurrences. The work is devoted to the analysis of tendencies of changes in hotel room prices and the evaluation of these changes using the construction of regression economic-mathematical models of space and time series. The relevance and significance of the study lies in the analysis and assessment of price tendencies for standard hotel rooms in the popular segment of 1* and 2* hotels in Poland. This country is Ukraine’s closest neighbor, therefore the study of economic trends in the development of its hotel industry is relevant not only for tendencies in Europe, but also for the future of the hotel segment of our country. The conducted analysis showed the presence of a mathematically defined tendency towards a moderate increase in prices for «standard» hotel rooms. The price function for these hotel rooms is an increasing one, but it does not cross the growth limit of the corresponding exponential function built on the same spatial number series. But such a tendency should not lead to any crisis occurrences in the hotel sector of Poland. Article is written in Ukrainian
Goloborodko A. Y.
The Encapsulated Approach to Digitalization of Business Processes of the Enterprise on the Way of Its Integrative Development (p. 98 - 105)
In connection with the development of the digital economy, there is a need to transform approaches to the efficient management of the integrative development of the enterprise. The purpose of writing the article is to model the dependence of the flows and business processes of the enterprise on the inlaid resources and investments and determine the ways of integrative development of the enterprise. The study of the encapsulated approach to the digitalization of business processes of the enterprise on the way of integrative development was carried out with the identification of key flows of business processes of telecommunications enterprises: material, innovation-intellectual, information-marketing, and financial. The study made it possible to identify the dependence of management efficiency along with achievement of a positive result on the synchronization of flows with the possible assumption of a temporary variation in the dynamism of investing a particular flow. The article builds a mathematical model for calculating profitability in the dynamics of investment flows tested according to the data of telecommunication enterprises of Kyivstar PJSC, Vodafone PJSC and lifesell LLC for the period 2018-2021, which made allowed to identify the most influential flows over the years and identify the pattern of change in leadership depending on the influence of environmental factors and internal conditions for organizing the work of the enterprises. The author proposes a map of integration development of flows at telecommunication enterprises and their influence on the formation of performance results, defines vectors of integrative development of telecommunication enterprises. It is concluded that the process of global digitalization, which modern society is experiencing, requires flexible management of business processes of enterprises, changing business models and making timely decisions through the use of modern information technologies. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №5-2023
Volosiuk M. V., Prokopovich L. B.
A Cost Forecasting Model for Innovation Activities in the Industrial Sector of Ukraine (p. 73 - 79)
The article considers the problem of increasing the reliability of estimation of the cost of innovation activity in the industrial sector of Ukraine. Using as primary data the information of the previous study, the dependence of the costs of innovation activity on a group of factors is analyzed, as a result of which it was decided to build several multi-factor regression models. In order to build this group of models, the least squares method was used. In the course of checking the obtained multivariate models, it was found that each model has internal parameters in which the value of p-values exceeds the limit value, which means that the obtained values of the internal parameters of the model are not significant. Therefore, all multivariate models constructed using the least squares method were eliminated from further research. At the next stage of the research, one-factor regression models were constructed using the least squares method, where the amount of mastered production of new types of products (technological processes) was used as a factor. After sorting out the non-essential models, the remaining ones were compared with respect to their quality characteristics. However, in all univariate models, it was found that the calculated values of the average approximation error exceeded 10%. Therefore, yet again, all models have been eliminated from further research. Due to the impossibility of obtaining a model using the least squares method in the simulation process, it was decided to use machine learning methods with a teacher. Among the methods of machine learning, it was decided to pay attention to the following methods: k-near neighbors, regression trees, and neural network method. Taking into account that these models are not adversely affected by the multi-collinearity between factors, both the data for the models were used raw data without additional transformations. According to the results of the research, it was found that among the models using machine learning methods, the best models were the binary regression decision tree (with a hyperparameter value of max_depth = 3) and the neural network model. When comparing these models, it was found that the model based on the decision tree has a smaller value of the average approximation error, which means that this model can be recommended for use in making management decisions on forecasting the costs of innovation activity of industrial enterprises in the future. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №6-2023
Savina S. S., Vodzyanova N. K., Bilyk T. O., Kravchenko V. L., Semashko K. A.
Selection of Econometric Instruments when Building a Scoring Model Based on Dummy Variables (p. 128 - 133)
The aim of the study is to select adequate econometric instruments for building a scoring model on a specific array of initial data, which contains the vast majority of fictitious variables. Despite a significant number of developments devoted to the construction of scoring models, a universal method allowing to obtain a highly efficient classifier for any data has not been identified. Therefore, the task of selection of the best method for building a scoring model remains relevant, depending on the characteristics of the available data. The most successful approach when selecting a model for solving the problem of binary classification is the use of several types of econometric models and the choice of the best of them according to the results of classification. In the presented study, the following types of models were applied: discriminant model, logit and probit regressions, and polynomial logistic regression. Training samples with different structure were used. Comparison of all obtained models allows us to conclude that polynomial logistic regression is preferable in this case. This model demonstrates high classification rates for all introduced object classes and has an important advantage compared to models that make a binary selection. The advantage of polynomial logistic regression is also the possibility of selecting in each case a convenient scale for dividing borrowers into more than two classes and determining the level of probability of reliability of the borrower acceptable for its own conditions, at which it should be assigned to one of the selected classes. Prospects for further research in this direction are the use of machine learning methods that will be able to use ensembles of the best of the considered models. In addition, the proposed models can be used in solving similar problems in other spheres of economic activity. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №8-2023
Kolomiiets Y. Y., Kochorba V. Y.
Risk Modeling of Banking Activities (p. 138 - 148)
The article is devoted to the study of the issue of banks’ risk management. Risk management is a complex but necessary process to ensure the financial stability of banks. Research and assessment of banks’ risks helps banks understand and manage risks, make more informed decisions about granting loans, investing and other operations. Risk modeling is an important part of risk management in banks, so the article proposes improving the methodology for assessing the level of risks of banking activities, which, on the basis of forecasting methods and simulation modeling, allows to improve the validity and quality of managerial decisions in the field of management of financial activities of a bank. The task of risk assessment is a central element of the risk management system in banks. In order to improve the methodological base, the article proposes a conceptual scheme of modeling the risks of banking activity, which includes four blocks: development of currency risk assessment models; development of credit risk assessment models; stress testing of banking risks; making decisions to stabilize the financial condition of the bank in each of the proposed scenarios of modeling the risks of banks’ activity. In accordance with this, on the basis of the carried out study of the bank’s financial statements and methods of assessment and analysis of risks of banking activity, the following simulation models have been developed: a model for assessing the level of currency risk; a model for assessing credit risk and determining the amount of its reserve according to national and international standards; a complex risk assessment model. After building and examining the models, the methods of system dynamics were used, namely: simulation modeling, stress testing, and sensitivity analysis. Simulation modeling has become an effective tool for studying the risks of banking activities, as it made it possible to create virtual models of banking operations and test them on various risk scenarios. Stress testing allowed to study the impact of shock events on the financial stability of the bank. Sensitivity analysis was used to identify the most sensitive parameters of the model and to determine how changing these parameters affects the model results. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №9-2023
Dilenko V. О., Sokolov K. S.
A Study of the Efficiency of Functioning of the National Economy Using the Tools of the «Input – Output» Model (p. 111 - 117)
The aim of the article is to determine the indicators of efficiency of functioning of the national economy by the methods based on the economic-mathematical model of «input – output», and to conduct their comparative analysis. The publication allocates two main approaches to assessing and analyzing the efficiency of functioning of economic systems that use the above mentioned model. According to the first of them, the Frobenius number of the technological matrix of V. Leontiev’s model is considered as an indicator of efficiency (productivity, cost). Another approach uses the relevant elements of the matrices of the coefficients of direct and total material costs to build performance indicators. By demonstrating numerical examples, it is shown that performance indicators using Frobenius numbers can give incorrect results for some changes in the values of the elements of the technological matrix. This circumstance casts doubt on the possibility of using such indicators in the economic and mathematical analysis of macrosystems of production and distribution of products under the description of their functioning by V. Leontiev’s models. The carried out analysis of the dynamics of efficiency indicators, which are based on the elements of the main matrices of the «input – output» model, and the GDP growth rate indicator, calculated for the national economy in 2012–2020, shows that the processes of change in the size of the Ukrainian economy in this period are not directly related to the efficiency of its functioning and are determined mainly by simple scaling. Further research can be developed in the direction of using the economic and mathematical apparatus of the «input – output» models to form recommendations for improving the efficiency of the functioning of the relevant economic systems, as well as a more detailed analysis of the features of the dynamics of the Ukrainian economy. Article is written in Ukrainian
Shabelnyk T. V.
The Method of Hierarchy Analysis as a Mechanism for Choosing a Development Strategy for a Pharmaceutical Enterprise (p. 117 - 122)
The aim of the publication is to develop a method of hierarchy analysis for choosing the optimal market strategy for the development of a pharmaceutical enterprise. The article substantiates the need for continuous improvement of the decision support system of a pharmaceutical enterprise, which operates in conditions of constant changes in the external environment, to ensure the processes of continuous and stable growth of the enterprise. The main components of the external destabilizing factors of the modern pharmaceutical market, which require the introduction of special mechanisms for ensuring the continuity of the process of managerial changes for the contemporary domestic pharmaceutical enterprises, have been allocated. It is determined that one of the effective mechanisms for choosing the optimal market strategy for the development of a pharmaceutical enterprise is the method of analytical hierarchy as one that is simple in terms of mathematical tools and at the same time gives consistency to the conclusions obtained. The key strategies for the development of a pharmaceutical enterprise include: expanding the range of export-oriented pharmaceutical products; expanding the range of generic pharmaceutical products for sale in the domestic market; building own network of pharmacies for the retail sale of pharmaceuticals both of own production and of other manufacturers. The main indicators of efficiency of the pharmaceutical enterprise in the modern market environment are defined as follows: increase in marginal income; stability of functioning and strengthening of competitiveness; share of the additional sales market. The practical implementation of the method of analytical hierarchy for choosing the optimal market strategy for development is carried out on the example of PJSC «Fitofarm» as a pharmaceutical production and trade enterprise, which occupies a leading position in the pharmaceutical market of Ukraine and needs to maintain and improve it, taking into consideration the influence of modern challenges. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №10-2023
Kotsyuba O. S.
An Analysis of Alternative Methods of Measuring Economic Risk Within the Fuzzy Set Approach (p. 141 - 149)
The article is devoted to the problems of measuring economic risk on the basis of fuzzy sets. An analysis and further development of the methodical apparatus for quantitative assessment of the degree of economic risk is carried out within the framework of the interpretation of the degree of risk as the degree of possibility of discrepancy between the value of the criterion indicator and its normative level. As a direct subject of consideration, the case is taken when there is a simultaneous fuzziness of assessments of the criterion and the normative. The principal emphasis in the study is made on the computational aspect (computational versions) of the analyzed methods for assessing the degree of economic risk. Initially, one of the existing methods for measuring economic risk is considered, the scope of which is the situation when fuzzy assessments of the criterion economic indicator and its normative imply a horizontal, i.e. by levels of affiliation (alpha-levels) way of presentation. Based on the results of the analysis of expressions that define this method, its modification is proposed, which is based on the alpha-level weighing of its basic structural components. Comprehensive attention in the study is paid to the method of assessing the degree of risk for a fuzzy assessment of a criterion economic indicator in relation to a fuzzy assessment of the normative, which is based on a probabilistic analogy. Within this framework, the formulas that form the computing apparatus of this methodical approach are systematized and supplemented. Among other things, the generalized computational formulas of the commented method have been supplemented. For the conditional situation, on the basis of a series of simulation computations, a comparative analysis of the studied alternative methods of measuring economic risk is carried out. The accomplished analysis made it possible to identify certain regularities of the mutual distribution of values of the degree of risk, obtained when they are applied simultaneously. Article is written in Ukrainian
Kanyhin S. M.
A Systematic Review of Enterprise Bankruptcy Forecasting Models (p. 149 - 161)
The purpose of this scientific study is a deep systematic analysis and generalization of existing models for forecasting the bankruptcy of enterprises. In the context of the unpredictability of the world economy, ensuring the stability of enterprises becomes an extremely urgent issue and requires a detailed analysis. For this purpose, the Scopus database was chosen, known for its impressive list of publications in terms of quantity and quality. After a systematic search using 18 keyword combinations, it was possible to identify 1448 potentially relevant publications. However, only 1127 of them met the criteria and were selected for further analysis. The main emphasis of the research was placed on an in-depth study of the characteristics, advantages and limitations of each of the models under consideration. The data obtained made it possible to outline key areas for further research in this area. Testing the models in practice was one further important aspect. For this purpose, data for 2019-2020 were used. Regarding 17907 enterprises, it should be noted that 353 of them subsequently became bankrupt in the period of 2021-2023. Using the Python programming language, a deep statistical analysis and visualization of the results were carried out. Based on the analysis, it was found that some models, including those of Altman, Lees, Springate, Duran, and Tereshchenko, showed impressive accuracy in predicting bankruptcy. Of particular note is the effectiveness of Matviychuk’s model, which showed an accuracy of 67.7%. As a result, this study has made a significant contribution to the development and understanding of approaches to forecasting the bankruptcy of enterprises in Ukraine. The results are of great theoretical and practical importance for specialists in the financial sector, and also lay the foundation for further research in this direction. Article is written in Ukrainian
Malуarets L. M., Voronin A. V., Lebedieva I. L., Lebediev S. S.
Innovation Development of an Enterprise: Modeling Dynamics (p. 162 - 174)
At the present stage of economic development, the leading role in ensuring the competitiveness of both an singular enterprise and the country as a whole, as well as in creating conditions for the transition to sustainable development, is played by the successful implementation of the latest scientific developments in production processes, comprehensive support for the strategy of innovative development. The development and implementation of innovations is a complex dynamic process that requires the use of special research methods. Such a method is system dynamics, which makes it possible to take into account the nonlinearity of the impact of innovation on the state of the economy. The paper considers the methodology for building a model for managing innovation processes, taking into account the self-organization of the logistic type. The main danger that can accompany the evolution of innovation processes is the emergence of unacceptable dynamic modes, so one of the tasks of the study was to determine the conditions capable of ensuring the stability of equilibrium states of a complex dynamic system according to the proposed models. The object of research is a complex dynamic system, between the elements of which there is both positive and negative feedback. To build a model of the dynamics of innovation processes, the mathematical apparatus of the theory of differential equations was applied, which made it possible to consider the development of the innovation process in continuous time. With the help of the instrumentarium of nonlinear dynamics, a study of the stability of diffusion of innovations depending on the parameters of the control influence was carried out. The conditions for the transition of the system to a critical state, which may be accompanied by the occurrence of bifurcations and chaos, have been determined. Particular attention was paid to determining the structural stability of the regulated innovation process in the case when both equilibrium positions are close in terms of parameter values. It is expedient to apply the proposed model to solve the problem of innovation management both at the State level and at the level of an individual industry or an individual enterprise. The obtained theoretical conclusions were confirmed through the use of simulation modeling. Article is written in English
Klymenko N. A., Kostenko I. S., Bielous A. О.
Analyzing the Demand for Educational Services of Higher Education Institutions of Ukraine in the Context of Modern Challenges (p. 174 - 183)
The aim of the article is to study the demand for educational services in Ukraine under the influence of economic, political and social factors that are effective in the country. Among the main factors influencing the demand for educational services are the COVID-19 pandemic, the full-scale invasion of the russian federation on the territory of Ukraine and, as a result, migration processes, the destruction of educational infrastructure, changes in the structure of the labor market, budget constraints, reduction of funding at the expense of households, etc. The projected value of the reduction in demand for educational services (number of entrants) by 2025 based on the studied parameters is on average 10%. A correlation and regression analysis was carried out to study the demand for educational services of higher education institutions (HEIs) depending on the main demographic, economic, political and social indicators. According to the analysis of the correlation matrix, the factors that have a high level of closeness of interconnection and a direct impact on the number of entrants to HEIs are the number of school graduates, the number of population aged 16–59 years and the employment rate. Factors such as a decrease in education costs, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the occupation have an inverse impact on the number of entrants. The paper considers the study of the effectiveness of the State regulation of admission to the budget form of education in individual specialties. For this purpose, data on the results of the 2023 admission campaign from the Unified State Electronic Database on Education were used. It is found that in 2023, the highest demand is for specialties related to the social and philological direction (Psychology, Journalism), as well as those that have a well-established importance in terms of prestige and employment (Dentistry, International Relations, specialties in the IT profile, etc.). On the other hand, the lowest demand is for engineering specialties, where the competition is two applications for three budget-funded places. The article uses econometric methods of analysis of digital information, analyzes the influence model between the indicators of the passing score and the general competition. Recommendations are provided on the revision of the policy of admission and competitive selection of students in certain specialties, taking into account the existing established trends in the demand for engineering specialties and taking into account the factor of occupation of the country’s territory and, as a result, changes in the structure of production and needs in the labor market. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №11-2023
Karpenko O. O., Rabchun A. O.
Mathematical Modeling of Protection Resource Management in Information Security Systems of Financial Organizations in the Context of Hybrid Threats (p. 180 - 187)
The article is devoted to mathematical modeling in the design of adaptive systems in the field of information security of financial organizations. The key challenges arising in connection with hybrid threats, in the context of the formation of the information economy, the rapid development of electronic payments in the financial sector, and constant information cyberattacks in the context of the russian-Ukrainian war are studied. The article presents a mathematical model developed on the basis of the Gross model for assessing the level of information security of financial organizations under different conditions of functioning. Particular attention is paid to the role of the model in optimizing the allocation of protection resources to ensure the reliability of information security in real time. The proposed approach will allow to achieve a rational allocation of protection resources in the construction of adaptive information security systems, which will increase the effectiveness of protection against hybrid threats. The article proposes a specific model for assessing the information security of financial institutions, including an important aspect of choosing criteria and setting priorities. It is noted that the effective allocation of protection resources is a key priority of information security management; its importance for ensuring protection against hybrid threats in the modern realities of the information and economic environment is emphasized. Article is written in Ukrainian
Guryanova L. S., Kaganovskyi O. S., Serhiienko O. A., Mironenko A. Y.
Modeling the Level of Socioeconomic Development of Regions on the Basis of Proxy Variables (p. 187 - 194)
The article proposes models for assessing the level of socioeconomic development and economic security of regions, on the basis of a synthesis of the proxy variable technique and cluster analysis, which allow to assess changes in interregional differentiation, spatial economic transformations, identify «pivotal» regions, assess the level of economic security of regions under conditions of limited data. The system of proxy-variables of socioeconomic development of regions is substantiated; classifications of regions by the level of socioeconomic development on the basis of methods of hierarchical, agglomerative and iterative cluster analysis have been developed; a dynamic analysis of the structure of clusters is carried out; changes in the characteristics of the distribution of proxy-variables are analyzed; an assessment of interregional differentiation and asymmetry of development is carried out. The results of the carried out cluster analysis based on proxy variables helped to conclude that recent years have led to significant transformations of the economic space in the regional aspect. In the cluster of «pivotal» regions, there is a strengthening of the positions of Dnipropetrovsk and Lviv regions, convergence with regions with an average level of development – Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa regions. The most critical situation is typical for Luhansk, Donetsk, and Kherson regions. Donetsk region has moved from a cluster of regions with an average level of development to a cluster of regions with crisis development. The relocation of enterprises and smoothing out the asymmetry in the variable of «Growth of legal entities» currently affects the indicators of budget security of the regions to a lesser extent. Kharkiv region, despite the deterioration of the socioeconomic situation, maintains its position in the cluster of «pivotal» regions. The obtained results can be used in the system of anticipative management of regional development to adapt regional strategies to new realities. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №12-2023
Serhiienko O. A., Chernov O. O., Huz O. B.
Improving the Subsystem of Diagnostics and Prevention of Crisis Situations in the Activities of Business Entities (p. 114 - 127)
The article analyzes the current causes of the formation of crisis phenomena in the economy of Ukraine, also the main approaches to assessing the probability of occurrence of a crisis at enterprise. In order to improve the subsystem of diagnostics and prevention of the formation of financial crises, a conceptual model has been developed, which provides for the definition of the class of crisis of industrial enterprises on the basis of cluster analysis. Further, an assessment of the probability of occurrence of crisis situations on the basis of discriminant membership functions is carried out. The application of the conceptual model allowed to develop an approach to improving the system of anti-crisis management of enterprise on the basis of assessment of the sanitation potential of enterprise. A matrix model of choosing the sanitation strategy of enterprise on the basis of positioning of the enterprise in the two-dimensional plane depending on the level of sanitation potential and the class of crisis has been built. The type of sanitation strategy is determined, taking into account the class of crisis, the expedient way of implementing the strategy, corresponding to the actual and potential capabilities of the enterprise and the state of its sanitation potential. The key element of the proposed mechanism is the procedure for selecting and implementing the sanitation strategy depending on: the level of the sanitation potential of the enterprise and the class of crisis; external factors and the class of the crisis. The results of the study can be implemented in the activities of industrial enterprises for the formation and substantiation of crisis management. Article is written in Ukrainian
Huseynova S. M., Gambarli U. A.
Cointegration and Causality Relationship of the USA Stock Market with Selected World Markets (p. 128 - 134)
This article, based on data from 1995 to 2022, considers the commercial and economic processes between the USA, Japan and China and stock indexes indicators of these countries. In the course of research, the authors have created multiply regression model, adequacy of the model was determined using the Fisher’s F-test, Student’s t-test, and the stability of the parameters of the regression model was checked using the CUSUM test. Stationarity of the time series was checked by the Dickey-Fuller test. As a result, econometrically sound recommendations are developed, which allows to conduct dynamic analyses to effectively regulate economic processes, integration and international trade, foreign investment operations between the three countries. The Granger causality of the relationship was investigated. Johansen tests were implemented to find the cointegration space, after which a vector error correction model was constructed that describes the long-term equilibrium relationship between the studied indicators and the path to return to the equilibrium trajectory in case of deviation from it. During the modelling, all necessary statistical procedures were used to identify and evaluate the parameters of the model and check its adequacy, accuracy of short-term and long-term forecast values using Eviews 8 tools. The results show that not only for the countries studied here, but also for each country, conduction of monitoring by the governments by using the methodology of the vector model of error correction is very important in order to ensure effective regulation of foreign trade and to participate in regional and global integration processes. Article is written in English
BUSINESS INFORM №1-2024
Kulyk A. B.
Forecasting the Dynamics of Stockbreeding Development Using Time Series (p. 110 - 117)
The construction of time series using historical data is one of the urgent problems of management in the agrarian sector, since the analysis and forecasting of processes related to the food security of the State, of region, and of economic entities is crucial. With the help of forecasts, businesses can adjust their production activities in such a way as to meet demand and deliver products to consumers on time. The aim of this study is to forecast the dynamics of the development of stock of cattle and cows and to determine the optimal forecasting period. For this type of analysis, statistical methods related to autoregression are used: autoregressive models, moving average models, or combinations of both; integrated models with a variable structure, and models that include seasonal effects and exogenous factors with an autoregressive and moving average component in the model. Monthly statistics on the number of cattle and cows are provided: mean, standard deviation, minimum and maximum values, asymmetry and excess. The dynamics of decline in the number of stock of cattle and cows is shown. The studied series were tested for stationarity. To the time series of the number of cattle, the Box–Cox transformation was applied. The optimal parameters of the models used are presented. Forecast values for time intervals (months) have been obtained and changes in the number of stock of cattle over the past 17 years have been analyzed. The built time series are compared with the actual values, which is illustrated in the graphs. Estimates of standard deviation, mean absolute error for different forecasting terms are provided. When comparing these estimates for different time intervals, the optimal time period for the forecast (24 months) was determined. This study allows farms and enterprises of the industry to realize how much products (milk, meat) can be harvested or obtained in the future. This assists in taking the necessary managerial steps: plan for resource needs, improve efficiency, increase profits, reduce costs, and adapt to changes in the market. Article is written in Ukrainian
Andrenko O. A., Mordovtsev S. M.
A Methodical Approach to Rating Assessment of Competitiveness of Tax Systems of European Countries (p. 117 - 123)
The aim of the study is to develop an alternative scientific and methodological approach to the rating assessment of the level of competitiveness of the tax system of the leading countries of the world. A review of scientific studies devoted to the integral assessment of tax systems of different countries showed a variety of approaches to the choice of indicators and valuation methods. Despite the obvious positive aspects of the methodology for calculating the International Tax Competitiveness Index (ITCI), there are claims regarding the number of indicators and the methods for calculating final scores in subcategories and categories. A methodical approach to an alternative integral assessment of the level of tax competitiveness based on the use of the model of the iterative method of principal components is proposed, which made it possible to compile a ranking of the level of efficiency of the tax systems of European countries in 2023. The presented model is easily implemented without the involvement of special applied statistical programs. Ukraine (like most countries with developing economies) is not yet among the 38 countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, so the official ITCI index for Ukraine can only be calculated unofficially. The taxation system of Ukraine is characterized by both positive indicators and some shortcomings. Therefore, in order to improve the tax system of Ukraine, it is necessary to study the positive and negative experience of other countries and determine the factors influencing the country’s position in the ranking of international tax competitiveness. In the course of further research, it is necessary to critically review the system of indicators, excluding the ones that do not significantly affect the final result, but can lead to certain errors. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №2-2024
Korepanov O. S., Lazebnyk I. O., Yamshynskyi K. A.
Modeling the Factors of Socioeconomic Development of the Regions of Ukraine and Determining the Role of ICT (p. 111 - 117)
The aim of this article is to analyze and model the factors of socioeconomic development of the regions of Ukraine, taking into account the peculiarities of the influence of information and communication technologies (ICT). The article is directed towards identifying the relationship between various aspects of regional development and the introduction of ICT, as well as determining the role of these technologies in increasing the competitiveness and sustainable development of regional economies. One of the tasks is to reveal the importance of information technology for the effective management of regional development and to develop recommendations on strategies for improving the efficiency of the use of ICT in order to promote sustainable development of the regions of Ukraine. In order to determine the generalized factors of socioeconomic development of regions and to establish the impact of ICT on this development, a model of the main components has been built, which has allowed to transform the 16-dimensional feature space into a four-dimensional space of generalized factors that explain 88.7% of the variation of the features selected for analysis. This indicates a high level of factorization of the built model of principal components. The following generalized factors have been identified and ranked according to the degree of importance: 1) development of ICT and labor potential (impact: 39.9%); 2) the state of finance and investment (impact: 14.4%); 3) development of production (impact: 24.7%); 4) the results of the functioning of enterprises (impact: 9.6%). The computations were carried out using the «Statistica» application package, in particular the «Factor analysis» module. The use of the developed model made it possible to prevent subjectivism in determining the main factors of socioeconomic development of the regions of Ukraine. The carried out research allowed to substantiate the theoretical and methodological foundations of statistical modeling of factors of socioeconomic development of regions and to determine the role (impact) of ICT. The allocated factors can be taken as a basis for the formation of key directions and strategies for the development of regions, as well as for making effective managerial decisions in the field of ICT. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №3-2024
Pyvavar I. V., Ponomarenko O. O., Dyachkova O. V.
Modeling of Sustainable Economic Development in Terms of the Resource-Ecological Component (p. 183 - 192)
The purpose of the study is to reflect the relationship between economic development and environmental pollution. To achieve this goal, a simulation model of ecological and economic processes has been built. The article discusses general economic reforms that lead to unforeseen damage to the environment. Therefore, the existence of outdated policies, market imperfections, and organizational structures elsewhere in the economy can interact in unpredictable ways with broader economic reforms and create incentives for overuse of natural resources and environmental degradation. That is why the correction of such a situation usually does not require the abandonment of the original economic policy. When conducting simulation experiments, the whole range of possible pictures of the model’s behavior is obtained by varying the coefficient of choice of the strategy, which is a managerial one. The built model reflects the ecological and economic processes associated with air pollution and purification in a certain area based on the specified initial conditions and time series that describe the dynamics of exogenous variables. The model proposed in the study allows predicting the dynamics of endogenous variables (qualitatively and quantitatively), and this behavior is possible with the unchanged structure of the system, and quantitative estimates are reliable until 2040 (further, the dynamics of the main variables is provided to demonstrate the possible S-shaped behavior of the system). The model presented in the paper reflects the relationship between different subsystems (sectors of the economy) with the help of feedback loops and allows to consider the influence of selected subsystems (one on the other), which cannot be done with the help of classical methods used in economics. The built model makes it clear that in order to maintain the ecological balance in the world, the situation will require a serious increase in investments in the development of environmental technologies and reduction of environmental damage from existing production technologies. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №5-2024
Guryanova L. S., Korovin O. O.
Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on the Productivity of the Agrarian Sector (p. 146 - 151)
The article proposes a conceptual approach to modeling the impact of climate change on the productivity of the agrarian sector, substantiates the factors of climate change, and forms the information base of the study. Specifically, rainfall data was taken from the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station database (CHIRPS), which is a quasi-global dataset of precipitation amounts over 30+ years. CHIRPS incorporates 0.05° resolution satellite imagery together with data from local stations to create gridded rainfall time series to analyze trends and monitor seasonal drought. In order to obtain rainfall data for each of the selected countries, the Large-Scale International Borders (LSIB) database was used. This data is taken from two other datasets: the LSIB Lines Vector File and the World Vector Shoreline (WVS) from the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA). Additional precipitation information was obtained using the Google Earth Engine after performing procedures with a sample of geolocation data for each country, obtaining actual precipitation data for the observation period, exporting the data and processing them to bring the results to the annual figure. The formed information base on the factors of climate change has allowed to develop models of productivity of grain production in the countries that are the largest wheat producers in the world. The results of the development of models led to the conclusion that climate change affects crop yields in countries that are leading producers of cereals. The obtained results can be used to predict changes in yield and production depending on climatic parameters such as temperature and precipitation, as well as to determine the optimal and extreme values of climatic factors. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №7-2024
Bilotserkivskyi O. B., Momotkov I. S., Gudymenko V. P.
The Neural Network Predictive Technologies for Crisis Classification and Bankruptcy Assessment of Trade Industry Entities (p. 196 - 206)
The ongoing war in Ukraine has led to a significant increase in the number of business bankruptcies. Timely assessment of bankruptcy risk is critical for making effective management decisions. The aim of the study is to develop an adaptive model for assessing the propensity of an enterprise to bankruptcy based on fuzzy neural networks, taking into account the specifics of the Ukrainian market in wartime. To achieve the aim, several stages were carried out: formation of a sample of enterprises in the trade industry; determination of crisis classes using cluster analysis; building a fuzzy neural network using the Fuzzy Logic Toolbox package in MATLAB; training the network on historical data and testing on new data. At the first stage, a sample of enterprises is formed, with the help of which the model will be trained. At the second stage, classes of crisis (threat of bankruptcy) are formed. At the third stage, with the help of the apparatus of fuzzy neural networks, a membership function with a certain set of parameters is formed. With the help of this function, it is possible to attribute this or that enterprise with a certain degree of belonging to one of the classes of crisis formed at the previous stage. The fourth stage is to check the adequacy of the obtained model and the possibility of its practical use. At the fifth stage, the practical implementation of the model is carried out: with the help of the membership function, the propensity of the researched enterprise to bankruptcy is determined, that is, to what extent the studied enterprise belongs to one or another class of crisis. As a result of the application of the proposed algorithm, a fuzzy neural network was built, which used the financial indicators of Ukrainian enterprises. To train the model, a dataset was used that included 12 enterprises in the trade industry. The developed model allows to classify enterprises by the level of financial sustainability with high accuracy. Fuzzy neural networks have been shown to be an effective tool for predicting bankruptcy under uncertainty. The use of fuzzy neural networks made it possible to take into account uncertainty and adapt to changes in the external environment. The obtained results indicate the perspective of using fuzzy neural networks to assess the financial sustainability of enterprises. The developed model can be used as a tool for early detection of signs of crisis and making timely managerial decisions. Article is written in Ukrainian
BUSINESS INFORM №8-2024
Bida M. B.
Modeling the Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on the Economic Development of Countries (p. 165 - 174)
The article examines the impact of foreign direct investment (net inflows, net outflows) on the economic development of countries with an emphasis on modeling this impact through the gross domestic product (GDP) indicator. The aim of the study is to develop econometric models that allow to quantify the contribution of foreign direct investment (FDI) to the economic development of countries, in particular Ukraine, the countries of the European Union and the world. To achieve the aim of the study, the methodology of correlation and regression analysis was used, which made it possible to identify the relationship between FDI and the economic development of countries, to assess the significance and efficiency of foreign investment. Paired linear regression equations have been built, the significance and quality of the parameters of econometric models have been checked, in particular, the values of the correlation and determination coefficients have been calculated, and the relationship between the resulting features and dependent variables has been assessed. With the help of the Student’s t-test, conclusions are made to confirm the statistical significance of the model regression coefficients, and through the F-test, the statistical reliability of the regression equations is verified. An analysis of the impact of FDI on the GDP of Ukraine, the EU and the world revealed significant differences in the relationship between these economic variables, which can be explained by different economic and structural features. The greater impact of FDI on Ukraine’s GDP compared to the EU and the world is due to the economic structure, the level of investment attractiveness, the need for external capital and vulnerability to external shocks. It is found that a significant part of Ukraine’s GDP depends on foreign investment, which stimulates economic growth by creating new enterprises, jobs and increasing productivity. The outflow of FDI from Ukraine has a direct impact on the economic stability and investment attractiveness of the country. The article emphasizes the need for a systematic approach to modeling the impact of FDI on GDP, which will contribute to more effective economic development and stability of countries. The results of the simulation can be useful for governments, enterprises and investors in the formation of strategies for attracting and managing foreign investment. Article is written in Ukrainian
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