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A Systematic Review of Enterprise Bankruptcy Forecasting Models
Kanyhin S. M.

Kanyhin, Serhii M. (2023) “A Systematic Review of Enterprise Bankruptcy Forecasting Models.” Business Inform 10:149–161.
https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-4459-2023-10-149-161

Section: Economic and Mathematical Modeling

Article is written in Ukrainian
Downloads/views: 17

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UDC 330.4

Abstract:
The purpose of this scientific study is a deep systematic analysis and generalization of existing models for forecasting the bankruptcy of enterprises. In the context of the unpredictability of the world economy, ensuring the stability of enterprises becomes an extremely urgent issue and requires a detailed analysis. For this purpose, the Scopus database was chosen, known for its impressive list of publications in terms of quantity and quality. After a systematic search using 18 keyword combinations, it was possible to identify 1448 potentially relevant publications. However, only 1127 of them met the criteria and were selected for further analysis. The main emphasis of the research was placed on an in-depth study of the characteristics, advantages and limitations of each of the models under consideration. The data obtained made it possible to outline key areas for further research in this area. Testing the models in practice was one further important aspect. For this purpose, data for 2019-2020 were used. Regarding 17907 enterprises, it should be noted that 353 of them subsequently became bankrupt in the period of 2021-2023. Using the Python programming language, a deep statistical analysis and visualization of the results were carried out. Based on the analysis, it was found that some models, including those of Altman, Lees, Springate, Duran, and Tereshchenko, showed impressive accuracy in predicting bankruptcy. Of particular note is the effectiveness of Matviychuk’s model, which showed an accuracy of 67.7%. As a result, this study has made a significant contribution to the development and understanding of approaches to forecasting the bankruptcy of enterprises in Ukraine. The results are of great theoretical and practical importance for specialists in the financial sector, and also lay the foundation for further research in this direction.

Keywords: models, bankruptcy forecasting, financial ratios, financial management.

Fig.: 5. Tabl.: 10. Formulae: 5. Bibl.: 30.

Kanyhin Serhii M. – Postgraduate Student, Department of Customs Affairs and Financial Services, Simon Kuznets Kharkiv National University of Economics (9a Nauky Ave., Kharkiv, 61166, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]

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“Finansova zvitnist (zvit pro finansovyi stan (balans) ta zvit pro prybutky ta zbytky ta inshyi sukupnyi dokhid (zvit pro finansovi rezultaty), podani yak dodatok do zvitnoi (zvitnoi novoi) podatkovoi zvitnosti za richnyi podatkovyi (zvitnyi) period vidpovidno do punktu 46.2 statti 46 Podatkovoho kodeksu Ukrainy“ [ENGLISH_UA Financial Statements (Statement of Financial Position (Balance Sheet) and Statement of Profit and Loss and Other Comprehensive Income (Statement of Financial Results), Submitted as an Appendix to the Reporting (New Reporting) Tax Reporting for the Annual Tax (Reporting) Period in Accordance with Clause 46.2 of the Article 46 of the Tax Code of Ukraine.]. https://data.gov.ua/dataset/24069422-5825-41f6-81f7-89567e5e2ac9

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