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Conceptual Bases of Researching the Influence of External and Internal Factors on the Reactions of the Ukrainian Stock Market
Kochorba V. Y.

Kochorba, Valeriia Yu. (2025) “Conceptual Bases of Researching the Influence of External and Internal Factors on the Reactions of the Ukrainian Stock Market.” Business Inform 8:390–399.
https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-4459-2025-8-390-399

Section: Finance, Money Circulation and Credit

Article is written in Ukrainian
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UDC 336.761(477)

Abstract:
The article is devoted to substantiating the conception of researching the impact of external and internal factors on the reactions of the Ukrainian stock market amid unprecedented challenges. The relevance of the study is substantiated considering the current crisis state of the market, caused by full-scale military aggression and long-standing structural problems. A comprehensive analysis of recent studies and publications regarding stock market efficiency, the impact of geopolitical risks, military conflicts, and modeling methodologies (including VAR, ARIMA, GARCH) was conducted. Previously unresolved aspects of the overall problem were identified, including the insufficient integration of unique non-trading factors (the ongoing war, institutional deficiencies, infrastructure limitations) into comprehensive models, as well as the need for a deeper analysis of their synergistic effects on the market. The article’s objective is formulated as substantiating the conception of studying the reactions of the Ukrainian stock market, taking into account the dynamics of external and internal factors, the current crisis situation, and the urgent need to develop adequate forecasting models. The research methodology is described, which includes the conceptual substantiation for the use of econometric models (VAR, ARIMA, GARCH) to analyze volatility, stability, cyclicality, and trends. The work provides a detailed account of the current state of the Ukrainian stock market, its decline, fragmentation, low liquidity, and capitalization, as well as a comprehensive analysis of key non-trading factors such as the impact of the full-scale war and institutional and infrastructural limitations (lack of developed digital infrastructure, issues with national brokers, imperfect legislation, corruption). The conceptual empirical section is presented, containing an analysis of the dynamics of Ukrainian indices and a comparison with global market indices (USA, EU, Singapore), as well as examples of other countries’ stock market reactions to military conflicts. A conditional correlation matrix showing the impact of various factors on the market is proposed. The issues related to the lack of digital infrastructure and brokers are analyzed, and potential ways to restore the market at a general level are identified, including harmonizing legislation with the EU, attracting foreign investment, strengthening infrastructure, enhancing financial literacy, and introducing innovative financial products. The conclusions summarize the key findings, confirm the necessity of applying a comprehensive model framework, outline opportunities for recovery, and emphasize the strategic importance of the stock market for the country’s economy. Directions for further research have been identified, including conducting detailed empirical analyses and developing more advanced forecasting models.

Keywords: stock market, Ukraine, modeling, external factors, internal factors, war, volatility, institutional constraints, digitalization, recovery.

Fig.: 2. Tabl.: 5. Bibl.: 19.

Kochorba Valeriia Yu. – Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Associate Professor, Deputy Director, Educational and Scientific Institute «Karazin Banking Institute» of V. N. Karazin Kharkiv National University (55 Peremohy Ave., Kharkiv, 61174, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]

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