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A Model of Adaptive Natural Resource Management for Ukraine under Conditions of Uncertainty
Khvesyk M. A., Levkovska L. V., Boiko V. V.

Khvesyk, Mykhailo A., Levkovska, Liudmyla V., and Boiko, Volodymyr V. (2025) “A Model of Adaptive Natural Resource Management for Ukraine under Conditions of Uncertainty.” Business Inform 8:135–142.
https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-4459-2025-8-135-142

Section: Economic and Mathematical Modeling

UDC 502.131.1:330.15(477)

Abstract:
The article develops and justifies a conceptual model of adaptive management of natural resources and environmental protection for Ukraine amid growing uncertainty, climate threats, and large-scale environmental challenges compounded by the consequences of the ongoing war. The authors emphasize that traditional hierarchical management models are increasingly proving ineffective, making it urgent to transition to modern flexible mechanisms based on continuous monitoring, feedback, inclusiveness, and the system’s learning capacity. The proposed model integrates six key clusters: cyclical feedback management, a combined active/passive strategy, scenario planning, co-management at the community level, digitization of management processes, and flexible regulation. Each cluster involves the use of innovative tools – from digital environmental quality indicators and dynamic eco-profiles of territories to the establishment of ecological councils in communities, digital twins of natural systems, and adaptive tax mechanisms. Separately, a mathematical framework has been developed to assess the efficiency of the model, combining an indicator-based approach, multi-criteria analysis, and risk-oriented modeling. The system enables an objective assessment of management performance, adaptability, and risk load over time. Implementing such a model will promote greater transparency in environmental policy, integrate Ukraine into the European and global sustainable development framework, and provide a solid methodological foundation for attracting international funding for «green projects». The proposed approach could become a strategic platform for ecological restoration in the post-war period, providing a balanced integration of scientific methods, digital technologies, and inclusiveness in management decisions.

Keywords: adaptive management, natural resources, assessment mechanism, sustainable development.

Fig.: 1. Formulae: 5. Bibl.: 9.

Khvesyk Mykhailo A. – Doctor of Sciences (Economics), Professor, Academician of NAS of Ukraine, Professor, M. Ptukha Institute of Demography and Quality of Life Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine (60 Shevchenka Blvd., Kyiv, 01032, Ukraine)
Levkovska Liudmyla V. – Doctor of Sciences (Economics), Professor, M. Ptukha Institute of Demography and Quality of Life Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine (60 Shevchenka Blvd., Kyiv, 01032, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]
Boiko Volodymyr V. – Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Research Associate, Department of Natural-Technogenic and Environmental Safety, Institute of Demography and Quality of Life Problems of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine (60 Tarasa Shevchenka Blvd, Kyiv, 01032, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]

List of references in article

Chapman, M. S., Xu, L., Lapeyrolerie, M., & Boettiger, C. (2023). Bridging adaptive management and reinforcement learning for more robust decisions [Preprint]. arXiv:2303.08731. https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.08731
Fischer, B. A. (2016). Lessons Learned. Schizophr. Bull., 42(1), 18. https://doi.org/10.1093/schbul/sbv138
Gedeon, T., & Mischaikow, K. (1995). Structure of the global attractor of cyclic feedback systems. J. Dyn. Diff. Equat., 7, 141–190. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02218817
Ivashchenko, T. H. (2021). Rozvytok naukovykh osnov upravlinnia ekolohichnoiu bezpekoiu planovanoi diialnosti za dopomohoiu intehrovanykh avtomatyzovanykh system [Development of scientific bases of ecological safety management of planned activities by means of integrated automated systems] (Dys. d-ra tekhn. nauk, spets. 21.06.01 – ekolohichna bezpeka). Kyiv. https://uacademic.info/ua/document/0521U1018862
Khomik, M. M. (2019). Problemni aspekty upravlinnia ekolohichnoiu bezpekoiu pry zastosuvanni Zbroinykh Syl Ukrainy pid chas nadzvychainykh sytuatsii i v raioni provedennia operatsii Ob’yednanykh Syl [Problematic aspects of ecological safety management when using the Armed Forces of Ukraine during emergencies and in the area of the Joint Forces Operation]. Publichne upravlinnia i administruvannia v Ukraini, 66. https://znp-cvsd.nuou.org.ua/article/download/195282/195591/4352154
Okoro, S. C., Lopez, A., & Unuriode, A. (2024). A Synergistic Approach to Wildfire Prevention and Management Using AI, ML, and 5G Technology in the United States [Preprint]. arXiv. https://arxiv.org/abs/2403.146575
Organisation for Economic Co operation and Development. (2023). PISA?2025 Science Framework (Second Draft). OECD Publishing. Paryzh. https://pisa-framework.oecd.org/science-2025/assets/docs/PISA_2025_Science_Framework.pdf
Ushenko, S. Yu. (2025). Adaptyvne upravlinnia orhanizatsiiamy v umovakh voiennoho stanu [Adaptive management of organizations in martial law] (Dys. kand. ekon. nauk, spets. 08.00.08 – ekonomika ta upravlinnia pidpryiemstvamy (u haluzi ekonomiky)). Kyiv. https://elibrary.kubg.edu.ua/id/eprint/516743
Williams, B. K. (2011). Passive and active adaptive management: approaches and an example. J. Environ. Manage., 92(5), 1371–1378. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2010.10.039

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