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Strategic Modeling of Food Security in the Agrarian Sector of the Poltava Region: SWOT and PESTEL Analysis
Tkachenko V. S.

Tkachenko, Volodymyr S. (2026) “Strategic Modeling of Food Security in the Agrarian Sector of the Poltava Region: SWOT and PESTEL Analysis.” Business Inform 1:271–280.
https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-4459-2026-1-271-280

Section: Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness

UDC 338.439.02:332.1(477.53)

Abstract:
The article is devoted to a comprehensive study of the state and strategic prospects for ensuring food security in the Poltava region under martial law and global economic transformations. The Poltava region is identified as a strategic agricultural hub of Ukraine, possessing unique natural and resource potential, but facing unprecedented security and logistical challenges. The study employs a synthesized approach based on a combination of PESTEL analysis and SWOT modeling methods using expert assessments. The evaluation was conducted by a group of seven leading experts on a 5-point scale. Based on the results of the SWOT analysis, the food resilience coefficient was calculated (0.93), indicating a state of «active defense» for the region, where external threats somewhat outweigh the available internal potential. Geometric modeling of stability was carried out through the construction of a polygon (petal diagram). The calculated area of the actual potential (Sp = 45.8 sq. units) compared to the ideal model made it possible to determine the potential realization coefficient (Kr = 0.71). This mathematically confirms that 29% of the region’s resource capabilities are neutralized due to a low share of deep processing, energy vulnerability, and technological lag. Within the framework of a PESTEL analysis, 20 key impact factors were identified, among which the most significant were political (30.1%) and economic factors (29%). A high level of environmental turbulence was determined (89% of the maximum possible). The main risk drivers were identified as martial law, price volatility in global markets, and a personnel crisis caused by migration processes. The practical significance of this study lies in formulating strategic recommendations: transitioning from an export-oriented raw material model to the establishment of deep processing clusters, enhancing the bioenergy autonomy of agroholdings, and accelerating the implementation of HACCP standards for integration into the European food market.

Keywords: food security, Poltava region, agro-industrial complex, SWOT analysis, PESTEL analysis, strategic management, expert assessment, agrarian sector resilience.

Fig.: 5. Tabl.: 2. Formulae: 3. Bibl.: 9.

Tkachenko Volodymyr S. – Postgraduate Student, Poltava University of Economics and Trade (3 Ivana Banka Str., Poltava, 36003, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]

List of references in article

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Yevstakhevych V. L., Klypko O. V., Kotsan Yu. R., Harmash R. V., Slivinskyi R. M. & Pavelets O. O. (2024). Stratehichni aspekty harantuvannia ekonomichnoi bezpeky pidpryiemstv v umovakh voiennoho stanu [Strategic aspects of ensuring the economic security of enterprises under martial law]. Ekonomika ta suspilstvo, 41, 150–157.

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