BUSINESS INFORM JOURNAL.

УКР

ENG

Search:

REGISTRATION CERTIFICATE

KV #19905-9705 PR dated 02.04.2013.

FOUNDERS

RESEARCH CENTRE FOR INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT PROBLEMS of NAS (KHARKIV, UKRAINE)

According to the decision No. 802 of the National Council of Television and Radio Broadcasting of Ukraine dated 14.03.2024, is registered as a subject in the field of print media.
ID R30-03156

PUBLISHER

Liburkina L. M.

SITE SECTIONS

Modeling Structural Changes in the Livestock Market in the European Union
Piskunova O. V., Savina S. S., Kravchenko V. L., Dronchak O. V., Matsyshena S. M.

Piskunova, Olena V. et al. (2025) “Modeling Structural Changes in the Livestock Market in the European Union.” Business Inform 2:732–732.
https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-4459-2025-2-732-732

Section: Economic and Mathematical Modeling

Article is written in Ukrainian
Downloads/views: 0

UDC 519.866

Abstract:
The aim of this study is to analyze structural changes in the livestock product market in the European Union countries from 2000 to 2022, identifying trends and features of the development of the livestock industry in the context of implementing a comprehensive strategy for the restructuring of agriculture within the framework of the Green Deal. The initial dataset of statistical information contained an excessively extensive list of various types of livestock products; therefore, the research primarily focused on those produced in the largest volumes. By 2022, the largest volumes in meat production were attributed to pork, poultry, and cattle. To analyze the production of the main types of livestock products during 2000–2022 and to allow for the calculation of forecasts for future periods, a trend construction approach was applied for time series. The application of linear trend analysis was considered for the data of each of the three time series. The analysis of the results for each of the models allows us to draw the following conclusions: there is a constant increase in pork production. The production of poultry meat is also growing, and this growth is more rapid than that of pork production, while cattle meat production exhibits the opposite trend and is continually decreasing. Since the obtained trends have opposite directions, the next step involved examining a time series that describes the total production of livestock products, allowing for an accurate representation of the overall production picture. Linear and nonlinear trends were constructed for the time series that describes total production. A logistic curve was used as the nonlinear trend. The fact that the behavior of the time series data is best described by the logistic curve indicates that in the dynamics of the livestock market’s development, a transition to a new level is occurring. The analysis of the obtained trend indicates that during the period from 2000 to 2022, livestock product manufacturers in the European Union continued to increase production volumes. However, due to the adoption of the Green Deal strategy and the intensive campaign in the media against meat consumption, recent growth has halted, and some stabilization is observed. There are also certain changes in the structure of the livestock market. As a forecast for the future period, a further decline in the production of cattle can be indicated; in spite of this, due to the increase in the production of other types of livestock, there is stabilization of the overall production near the current level, approximately 144 kg per year per person. The conducted analysis of livestock production data in the EU countries forms the basis for further research that should continue in the direction of seeking development prospects for the domestic livestock industry in the context of integration into the European economic space.

Keywords: livestock market, time series, linear trend, logistics curve.

Fig.: 5. Tabl.: 5. Formulae: 4. Bibl.: 11.

Piskunova Olena V. – Doctor of Sciences (Economics), Professor, Professor, Department of Mathematical Modeling and Statistics, Kyiv National Economic University named after Vadym Hetman (54/1 Beresteiskyi Ave., Kyiv, 03057, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]
Savina Svitlana S. – Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Associate Professor, Associate Professor, Department of Mathematical Modeling and Statistics, Kyiv National Economic University named after Vadym Hetman (54/1 Beresteiskyi Ave., Kyiv, 03057, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]
Kravchenko Viktoriia L. – Senior Lecturer, Department of Mathematical Modeling and Statistics, Kyiv National Economic University named after Vadym Hetman (54/1 Beresteiskyi Ave., Kyiv, 03057, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]
Dronchak Oleksandr V. – Postgraduate Student, Department of Mathematical Modeling and Statistics, Kyiv National Economic University named after Vadym Hetman (54/1 Beresteiskyi Ave., Kyiv, 03057, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]
Matsyshena Sofiia M. – Masters Student, Kyiv National Economic University named after Vadym Hetman (54/1 Beresteiskyi Ave., Kyiv, 03057, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]

List of references in article

“Yevropeiskyi Zelenyi Kurs. Predstavnytstvo Ukrainy pry Yevropeiskomu Soiuzi“ [European Green Deal. Mission of Ukraine to the European Union]. https://ukraine-eu.mfa.gov.ua/posolstvo/galuzeve-spivrobitnictvo/klimat-yevropejska-zelena-ugodaBosma, A., and Peeren, E. “Authenticity, populism and rural masculinity in the 2019 Dutch farmers' protests“. Politics and Policies of Rural Authenticity. Routlege, 2021. https://library.oapen.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.12657/50507/9780367550448_10.4324_9781003091714-10.pdf.pdf;sequence=1
“Crops and livestock products. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations“. Faostat. https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QCL
“Europe's farmer protests are spreading. Here's where and why“. Politico. https://www.politico.eu/article/farmer-protest-europe-map-france-siege-paris-germany-poland/
Finger, R. et al. “Farmer Protests in Europe 2023-2024“, vol. 23, no. 3 (2024): 59-63. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/1746-692X.12452
Huze, S. K., and Posokhov, I. M. “Zovnishnotorhivelna polityka Ukrainy v umovakh intehratsii do YeS“ [Foreign Trade Policy of Ukraine in the Context of Integration into the EU]. Teoretychni ta praktychni doslidzhennia molodykh vchenykh. 2024. https://repository.kpi.kharkov.ua/server/api/core/bitstreams/78f3e5dc-9d24-433a-a66f-86f0a9763016/content
Hrynevych, M. “Vplyv miasa na dovkillia: yak vono vplyvaie na nashu planetu“ [The Environmental Impact of Meat: How It Affects our Planet]. Sotsportal. https://socportal.info/ua/news/vpliv-myasa-na-dovkillya-yak-vono-vplivae-na-nashu-planetu/
Kozak, O., and Hryshchenko, O. “Torhivlia ahroprodovolchoiu produktsiieiu z vyshchoiu dodanoiu vartistiu mizh Ukrainoiu ta Yevropeiskym Soiuzom“ [Trade in Higher Value Added Agri-Food Products between Ukraine and the European Union]. Visnyk Khmelnytskoho natsionalnoho universytetu. Seriia «Ekonomichni nauky», no. 5 (2024): 484-490. DOI: https://doi.org/10.31891/2307-5740-2024-334-73
Lukianenko, I. H., and Krasnikova, L. I. Ekonometryka [Econometrics]. Kyiv: Znannia, 1998.
Mortimer, G. “Growing revolt: What is behind Europe's farmers' protests?“ Spectator. 2024. https://go.gale.com/ps/i.do?id=GALE%7CA782094059&sid=googleScholar&v=2.1&it=r&linkaccess=abs&issn=00386952&p=AONE&sw=w&userGroupName=anon%7Eaf305f84&aty=open-web-entry
“Population, total - European Union“. The World Bank. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?locations=EU

FOR AUTHORS

License Contract

Conditions of Publication

Article Requirements

Regulations on Peer-Reviewing

Publication Contract

Current Issue

Frequently asked questions

INFORMATION

The Plan of Scientific Conferences

OUR PARTNERS

Journal «The Problems of Economy»

The site and its metadata are licensed under CC BY-SA.

Write to webmaster