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Analyzing the Basic Factors, Accounting of Which Be Necessary for an Efficient Medium-Term Forecast of the Value-Added Tax Revenues in Ukraine
Lytvynchuk A. O., Ivanchenko D. I.

Lytvynchuk, Andrii O., and Ivanchenko, Denys I. (2020) “Analyzing the Basic Factors, Accounting of Which Be Necessary for an Efficient Medium-Term Forecast of the Value-Added Tax Revenues in Ukraine.” Business Inform 1:298–303.
https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-4459-2020-1-298-303

Section: Finance, Money Circulation and Credit

UDC 336.201

Abstract:
The article is aimed at analyzing the basic factors, accounting of which be necessary for an efficient medium-term forecast of the value-added tax revenues in Ukraine. The study was implemented using the analogy and systematization methods, in-depth statistical analysis of legislative sources. Proven is the assumption that, when analyzing the fiscal efficiency of VAT, it is necessary to take into account that the actual levels of the dynamic tax revenue series change under the influence of various factors, deviating from the main tendency of development. Evaluation of such fluctuations can therefore allow for making adjustments to the built forecasts and respond more quickly to unforeseen situations. An important component of the medium-term forecasting of VAT is the assessment of macro-financial risks and building of a risk-oriented system of the medium-term forecasting of budget revenues. The components of increasing the efficiency of VAT in Ukraine in terms of ensuring the functioning of the tax control system are proposed. Resulting from the carried out research, it is identified that a risk-oriented medium-term VAT forecasting system should be directed towards minimizing the risks of budget revenues, which are based on: taking appropriate steps to implement Income part of the budget by means of the VAT; developing a financial monitoring system and introducing instruments to counter tax evasion; improving the mechanism of the functioning of VAT, etc. Therefore, improving the efficiency of VAT forecasting and planning should be ensured by developing realistic macro-economic forecasts; application of modern computer-based methods of forecasting and planning of VAT and harmonizing the national legislation with the EU regulations.

Keywords: value-added tax, medium-term forecast, efficiency, tax rate, factor, incomes.

Fig.: 1. Bibl.: 10.

Lytvynchuk Andrii O. – Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Deputy Director, Institute of Educational Analytics (5 Volodymyra Vynnychenka Str., Kyiv, 04053, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]
Ivanchenko Denys I. – Postgraduate Student, Kyiv National Economic University named after Vadym Hetman (54/1 Beresteiskyi Ave., Kyiv, 03057, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]

List of references in article

[Legal Act of Ukraine] (2010). https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/2456-17
[Legal Act of Ukraine] (1997). https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/168/97-вр
[Legal Act of Ukraine] (2010). https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/2755-17
Podatok na dodanu vartist v Ukraini [Value Added Tax in Ukraine]. Irpin: Natsionalna akademiia DPS Ukrainy, 2004.
Samyuelson, P. E., and Nordkhaus, V. D. Ekonomika [Economics]. Moscow: ID «Vilyams», 2007.
Sydorenko, R. V. “Vyznachennia sutnosti podatku na dodanu vartist ta perspektyvy yoho rozvytku“ [Determining the Nature of Value Added tax and its Prospects]. Ekonomichni nauky. Seriia «Oblik i finansy», vol. 1, no. 11 (2014): 234-240.
Sotnichenko, O. A. “Neobkhidnist reformuvannia PDV u konteksti Podatkovoho kodeksu Ukrainy“ [The Need to Reform VAT in the Context of the Tax Code of Ukraine]. Naukovyi visnyk Natsionalnoho universytetu DPS Ukrainy (ekonomika, pravo), no. 1 (2012): 113-120.
Messere, K. C. Tax Policy in OECD Countries: Choices and Conflicts. Amsterdam: IBFD Publications BV, 1993.
Tait, A. A. Value Added Tax: International Practice and Problems. Washington D. C. : International Monetary Fund, 1988.
Zee, H. H. “Value Added Tax“. In Tax Policy. Washington D. C. : International Monetary Fund, 1995.

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