BUSINESS INFORM JOURNAL.

УКР

ENG

Search:

REGISTRATION CERTIFICATE

KV #19905-9705 PR dated 02.04.2013.

FOUNDERS

RESEARCH CENTRE FOR INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT PROBLEMS of NAS (KHARKIV, UKRAINE)

According to the decision No. 802 of the National Council of Television and Radio Broadcasting of Ukraine dated 14.03.2024, is registered as a subject in the field of print media.
ID R30-03156

PUBLISHER

Liburkina L. M.

SITE SECTIONS

A Methodology for Macro-Economic Research on Social Tension: Analysis, Evaluation, Diagnostics
Bril M. S., Pyvavar I. V.

Bril, Mykhailo S., and Pyvavar, Iryna V. (2019) “A Methodology for Macro-Economic Research on Social Tension: Analysis, Evaluation, Diagnostics.” Business Inform 10:105–114.
https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-4459-2019-10-105-114

Section: Economic and Mathematical Modeling

Article is written in Ukrainian
Downloads/views: 2

Download article (pdf) -

UDC 316

Abstract:
The publication is aimed at researching social tensions in the European Union on the basis of the application of economic-mathematical modeling at the macro-economic level. The publication discloses theoretical approaches to such phenomenon as social tension at the macro-level, forms an indicative space, analyzes the influence factors, the mechanism of formation, and stages of development. The current macro-economic status of social tensions in the EU countries is researched. A comprehensive scheme for evaluation and analysis of social tensions in the EU countries is developed, containing implementation of the four main stages according to the selected factors-indices. A social tension index for the EU countries is formed, the extent of the influence of factors on the social tension index based on methods of correlation and regression analysis is identified. A model of evaluation of the level of social tension has been built to identify regularities of development over a certain period of development. In order to identify groups of countries with similar factors of social tension and to detail the resulting integrated scale, a model has been developed to classify countries, applying the Ward’s method, by the level of social tension using Gap-statistics and k-averages. Based on the use of the neural network learning algorithm, a group of countries in which also belongs Ukraine has been found, showing relation to the factors of social tension formation. The function of forecast provisioned by the functional of neural network is used, according to which Ukraine falls into a cluster with a high level of social tension, that is, has a similar background for functioning of the mechanism of social tension with such countries like Bulgaria, Romania, Macedonia, Serbia, Turkey and Montenegro. Thus, the proposed methodology for macro-economic research on the level of social tension is an effective tool for integrated diagnostics, which will allow to focus on the development of adequate and effective strategies for prevention of increase in social tensions and to minimize the threats associated with it in a timely manner.

Keywords: social tension, modeling, mechanism, indicator, regression, correlation, cluster analysis, neural network.

Fig.: 6. Tabl.: 5. Formulae: 4. Bibl.: 17.

Bril Mykhailo S. – Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Associate Professor, Associate Professor, Department of Economic Theory and Economic Policy, Simon Kuznets Kharkiv National University of Economics (9a Nauky Ave., Kharkiv, 61166, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]
Pyvavar Iryna V. – Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Associate Professor, Associate Professor, Department of Public Administration, Public Administration and Economic Policy, Simon Kuznets Kharkiv National University of Economics (9a Nauky Ave., Kharkiv, 61166, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]

List of references in article

Andrenko, O. A., and Mordovtsev, O. S. “Vykorystannia modeli intehralnoho indykatora dlia otsinky rivnia sotsialnoi napruzhenosti administratyvnoho raionu“ [Use of the Integral Indicator Model to Estimate the Level of Social Tension of the Administrative District]. Visnyk NTU «KhPI». Thematic issue «Aktualni problemy upravlinnia ta finansovo-hospodarskoi diialnosti pidpryiemstva». 2011. http://repository.kpi.kharkov.ua/bitstream/KhPI-Press/17827/1/vestnik_HPI_2011_62_Andrenko_Vykorystannia.pdf
Andrenko, O. A. “Sotsialna napruzhenist yak vyd zahrozy sotsialno-ekonomichnii bezpetsi rehionu“ [Social Tension as a Threat to Socio-economic Security of a Region]. Biznes Inform. 2013. https://www.business-inform.net/export_pdf/business-inform-2013-9_0-pages-119_123.pdf
Artyshchuk, I. V. “Intehralnyi pokaznyk efektyvnosti rozvytku subiektiv hospodariuvannia yak kryterii pryiniattia upravlinskykh rishen“ [Integral Index of Efficiency of Development of Subjects of Menage as Criterion of Acceptance of Administrative Decisions]. Naukovyi visnyk NLTU Ukrainy, no. 19.7 (2009): 253-259.
Baranova, G. V., Frolov, V. A., and Kondrashin, A. V. “Osobennosti sotsialnoy napryazhennosti v regionakh Rossii“ [Features of Social Tension in the Regions of Russia]. Sotsiologicheskiye issledovaniya, no. 6 (2011): 48-55.
Holovenko, V. A. “Riven sotsialnoi napruzhenosti ta potentsial sotsialnoho protestu v suspilstvi: mozhlyvosti sotsiolohichnoho doslidzhennia ta prohnozuvannia“ [Level of Social Tension and Potential of Social Protest in Society: Opportunities for Sociological Research and Forecasting]. Ukrainskyi sotsium. 2007. https://ukr-socium.org.ua/wp-content/uploads/2007/11/137-152__no-5-6__vol-22__2007__UKR.pdf
Gryzlov, I. N., and Belov, V. P. “Informatsionnaya tekhnologiya otsenki sotsialnoy napryazhennosti v regionakh Rossii“ [Information Technology for Assessing Social Tension in the Regions of Russia]. Informatsionnyye sistemy i tekhnologii, no. 1/57 (2010): 50-57.
Dronov, S. V. Mnogomernyy statisticheskiy analiz [Multivariate Statistical Analysis]. Barnaul: Izd-vo Altayskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta, 2003.
Dyuran, B., and Odell, P. Klasternyy analiz [Cluster Analysis]. Moscow: Statistika, 1977.
Novotarskyi, M. A., and Nesterenko, B. B. “Shtuchni neironni merezhi: obchyslennia“ [Artificial Neural Networks: Calculations]. Pratsi Instytutu matematyky NAN Ukrainy. 2004. http://www.immsp.kiev.ua/postgraduate/Biblioteka_trudy/ShtuchnNejronMeregNester2004.pdf
OECD Better Life Index. http://www.oecdbetterlifeindex.org/
Siryi, Ye. V. “Systemnyi analiz sotsialnoi napruzhenosti v konteksti pobudovy yii kontseptualnoi modeli ta alhorytmizatsii doslidzhennia“ [System Analysis of Social Tension in Context of the Construction its Conceptual Model and Research Algorithmization]. Problemy sotsialnoi roboty: filosofiia, psykholohiia, sotsiolohiia, no. 1 (2017): 70-77.
“Sotsialni indykatory rivnia zhyttia naselennia: statystychnyi zbirnyk“ [Social Indicators of Living Standards of the Population: a Statistical Compilation]. https://ukrstat.org/uk/druk/publicat/Arhiv_u/15/Arch_si_zb.htm
Enterprise Surveys Data. http://www.enterprisesurveys.org/en/data
Tolstova, Yu. N., and Voronina, N. D. “Rasshireniye ponyatiya sotsiologicheskogo izmereniya i yego ispolzovaniye dlya izmereniya sotsialnoy napryazhennosti“ [Expanding the Concept of the Sociological Dimension and its use for Measuring Social Tension]. Monitoring obshchestvennogo mneniya, no. 5 (2011): 25-36.
Yatsenko, L. D., and Kolomiiets, O. O. “Metodychni zasady ta rezultaty kompleksnoi otsinky sotsialnoi napruzhenosti v Ukraini“ [Methodical Bases and Results of the Comprehensive Evaluation of Social Tension in Ukraine]. Visnyk Odeskoho natsionalnoho universytetu im. I. I. Mechnykova. Seriia «Ekonomika». 2015. http://visnyk-onu.od.ua/journal/2015_20_3/48.pdf
European Innovation Scoreboards. https://ec.europa.eu/growth/industry/innovation/facts-figures/scoreboards/
Eurostat. http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

FOR AUTHORS

License Contract

Conditions of Publication

Article Requirements

Regulations on Peer-Reviewing

Publication Contract

Current Issue

Frequently asked questions

INFORMATION

The Plan of Scientific Conferences

OUR PARTNERS

Journal «The Problems of Economy»

The site and its metadata are licensed under CC BY-SA.

Write to webmaster